Nov. 7, 2009

Looking back to help us look ahead

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
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After this week, every team will have played eight games, which means we're at the halfway point of the 2009 season.

While the Fantasy season is already past the halfway mark with the playoffs starting in Week 14 for some leagues, it's time to hand out some midseason awards and look ahead to the second half. We've broken it down by team with a first-half MVP, first-half bust, second-half sleeper and second-half bust.

When looking at the MVP awards, you want to consider draft value compared to production. For example, we all know Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson were going to play well, but did you really expect to be starting Austin Collie and Brett Favre in your Fantasy league? Probably not.

Overall, the first-half MVP for Fantasy owners this year is Ray Rice, who just edged out Cedric Benson for the award, and the first-half bust has been Jason Witten. There are other top bust candidates like Steve Smith of the Panthers, Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson, but Witten has been the worst based on his draft value and his production.

Rice was drafted at No. 93 overall or as the No. 35 running back, according to his average draft position on CBSSports.com. Some of the running backs who went ahead of him are Derrick Ward, LenDale White, Larry Johnson and Beanie Wells.

Heading into Week 9, Rice is the No. 5 running back in a standard-scoring league with 109 points. He has rushed for 535 yards and four touchdowns and has 38 catches for 348 yards and another touchdown. He is a No. 1 option and should remain a starter for the rest of the year.

As for Witten, he was the No. 1 tight end selected based on his average draft position. Yet he currently is the No. 16 tight end in standard-scoring leagues with only 38 Fantasy points on 37 catches for 348 yards and one touchdown. He has been outplayed by Benjamin Watson, Zach Miller and John Carlson.

We expect Witten to turn things around, but his production has hampered Fantasy owners who spent a fourth-round draft pick on him. He needs to play better in the second half to reward those owners who took a chance on him.

And the winner is ...

Arizona

First-half MVP: Tim Hightower
First-half bust: Beanie Wells
Second-half sleeper: Steve Breaston
Second-half bust: Anquan Boldin
Breakdown: The reason Boldin is listed as a bust candidate is his ankle injury, and if that continues to linger or gets worse, he might be forced to miss some time. That would allow Breaston to have an increased role, and he could turn into a quality Fantasy starter. Hightower has been a solid Fantasy option all year, but he could see a lesser role if Wells gets the chance for more carries. But don't expect Hightower to disappear since he's so valuable as a receiver out of the backfield.

Atlanta

First-half MVP: Michael Turner
First-half bust: Matt Ryan
Second-half sleeper: Jerious Norwood
Second-half bust: Michael Turner
Breakdown: Turner has been better than I expected with 554 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, but the Falcons are going to run him into the ground. He's on pace for 315 carries, and that could lead to a breakdown by the end of the season, which is why you should keep an eye on Norwood or Jason Snelling. I hope Turner can make it through the rest of the year because he's fun to watch, but I don't like the beating he's taking and how it will affect the rest of his career. Ryan should be fine once he cuts down on the turnovers.

Baltimore

First-half MVP: Ray Rice
First-half bust: LeRon McClain
Second-half sleeper: Willis McGahee
Second-half bust: Ravens DST
Breakdown: Rice has emerged as one of the best Fantasy running backs this year. While that should continue, don't discard McGahee yet if you have an extra roster spot because Rice has never been a full-time starter before and could wear down. Remember, McGahee was the Fantasy MVP through the first three weeks of the season and could play a role down the stretch. The Ravens DST hasn't struggled as much as the Steelers DST has, but they aren't a Top 10 option anymore or a lock to start every week. And Baltimore faces some tough opponents ahead against Indianapolis, Pittsburgh twice and Green Bay.

Buffalo

First-half MVP: Fred Jackson
First-half bust: Terrell Owens
Second-half sleeper: Lee Evans
Second-half bust: Fred Jackson
Breakdown: Jackson turned out to be a Fantasy starter for the first three weeks of the season, and he's still a Top 30 Fantasy running back heading into Week 9. But with Marshawn Lynch back and getting the majority of carries, you're never going to use Jackson in your starting lineup again. Evans, prior to last year, has been one of the best closers in the NFL. From 2005-07, he had 11 touchdowns in 14 December games, so hopefully that will continue. Keep an eye on Owens also since the Bills have some favorable opponents in the passing game against Tennessee, Jacksonville, Miami and Kansas City still to come.

Carolina

First-half MVP: DeAngelo Williams
First-half bust: Steve Smith
Second-half sleeper: Jonathan Stewart
Second-half bust: Steve Smith
Breakdown: Smith has been a huge disappointment for Fantasy owners with only one touchdown this year, and he's not going to become a No. 1 option again as long as Jake Delhomme remains his quarterback. The Panthers will continue to rely on the run, which is why Stewart should finish strong in his tandem with Williams. The Panthers don't have the easiest schedule down the stretch with games remaining at the Jets, at New England and against Minnesota, but the Panthers ran over a tough Arizona run defense in Week 8 and hopefully will continue to play at that level for the rest of the year.

Chicago

First-half MVP: Johnny Knox
First-half bust: Matt Forte
Second-half sleeper: Earl Bennett
Second-half bust: Matt Forte
Breakdown: The Bears have been a hard team to figure out with Forte getting the majority of carries but not able to produce and Jay Cutler struggling with interceptions. The schedule in the second half doesn't help Forte or Cutler, but it's hard to bench them based on their potential to go off on a given week. Still, if you can trade Forte, now is the time to do so. And you might want to consider Cutler as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback the rest of the way. Knox is a marginal choice as the MVP, but no one has stood out for the Bears.

Cincinnati

Cedric Benson came out of nowhere to be an elite option. Can he keep it up? (US Presswire)

Cleveland

First-half MVP: Mohammed Massaquoi
First-half bust: Jamal Lewis
Second-half sleeper: Jerome Harrison
Second-half bust: Jamal Lewis
Breakdown: You want to avoid the Browns as much as possible, but Harrison could be worth stashing if the Browns decide to focus on him with Lewis already announcing he plans to retire after this season. Harrison showed he could be a decent Fantasy reserve with how he played against Cincinnati in Week 4, so let's hope the Browns give him a chance. Also keep an eye on Brian Robiskie with the hope his role increases. As for Massaquoi, he had two decent games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and is the only Browns player worth recognizing as an MVP.

Dallas

First-half MVP: Miles Austin
First-half bust: Jason Witten
Second-half sleeper: Felix Jones
Second-half bust: Roy E. Williams
Breakdown: You can argue that Williams, Witten and Marion Barber have all been a bust in the first half, and Williams will likely continue to suffer since he and Tony Romo can't get on the same page. Austin should slow down as well, but look for the Cowboys to improve running the ball with some favorable matchups ahead against Oakland, the Giants, San Diego and New Orleans. Jones should get back to being a good flex option as he continues to get more carries, but keep an eye on Romo since it's unlikely he can keep up this pace as a standout Fantasy quarterback.

Denver

First-half MVP: Broncos DST
First-half bust: Eddie Royal
Second-half sleeper: Correll Buckhalter
Second-half bust: Tony Scheffler
Breakdown: The Broncos have been the surprise team of the NFL in the first half, and their turnaround on defense has been a big reason why. The Broncos DST is currently the No. 5 option in standard-scoring leagues. Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton deserve consideration for the first-half MVP, but the Broncos DST has come out of nowhere to help Fantasy owners this year. Hopefully we can see Royal turn things around, and keep an eye on Buckhalter as he continues to share carries with Knowshon Moreno, who has also had a solid first half.

Detroit

First-half MVP: Kevin Smith
First-half bust: Calvin Johnson
Second-half sleeper: Matthew Stafford
Second-half bust: Kevin Smith
Breakdown: Smith is starting to struggle with wear-and-tear issues, and this shoulder injury could be a lingering problem the rest of the year. Injuries have made the Lions even worse than they already are with Johnson and Stafford dealing with knee problems. If they can get healthy, they could finish the season strong, especially Johnson, who has been a detriment to Fantasy owners all season. Consider Maurice Morris a sleeper also, but the Lions still have to face Minnesota, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Arizona and Chicago, which have all done well against the run.

Green Bay

First-half MVP: Donald Driver
First-half bust: Greg Jennings
Second-half sleeper : James Jones
Second-half bust: Donald Driver
Breakdown: Jennings appears on his way toward turning things around after an exceptional game against Minnesota in Week 8. Driver has been the go-to guy in the passing game, but he's due to slow down as Jennings heats up. We'll find out if Jermichael Finley has anything to offer when he returns from a knee injury, and he could be the second-half sleeper. But Jones has done a nice job as the No. 3 wide receiver since Jordy Nelson (knee) got hurt. The key for the Packers is keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy now that he has this foot problem.

Houston

First-half MVP: Owen Daniels
First-half bust: Kevin Walter
Second-half sleeper: Kevin Walter
Second-half bust: Steve Slaton
Breakdown: Daniels gets the nod as the MVP over Matt Schaub since he was the No. 1 Fantasy tight end before suffering a torn ACL in Week 8, but Schaub is worthy of consideration. Slaton should bounce back from his benching against the Bills, but it appears like he will lose carries to Ryan Moats, which puts his Fantasy value in limbo. And Walter, who has been terrible in the first half of the season, now has the chance to step up and replace Daniels with more targets heading in his direction.

Indianapolis

First-half MVP: Austin Collie
First-half bust: Anthony Gonzalez
Second-half sleeper: Pierre Garcon
Second-half bust: Donald Brown
Breakdown: The Colts have established stars in Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, and you expected them to play well. But with Gonzalez injuring his knee in Week 1 and apparently not coming back any time soon, that has allowed Collie and Garcon to be solid Fantasy options at time in the first half. Look for Garcon to be a potential starting Fantasy wide receiver in the second half of the season. Brown should still be a factor for the Colts as well, but Joseph Addai appears to be entrenched as the starter and should remain as the better Fantasy running back of the two.

Jacksonville

First-half MVP: Mike Sims-Walker
First-half bust: Torry Holt
Second-half sleeper: Rashad Jennings
Second-half bust: David Garrard
Breakdown: Be careful with the Jaguars passing game in the second half of the season because they don't have many great matchups at home like they did in the first half. The only safe option is Week 14 against Miami, which is why Garrard could struggle. Remember, stay away from Garrard on the road. And teams might start to figure out how to defend Sims-Walker, which could lower his value. Maurice Jones-Drew should continue to run well, but grab Jennings in case something happens to Jones-Drew. The only reason Holt is a bust is because he's still looking for his first touchdown with the Jaguars.

Kansas City

First-half MVP: Dwayne Bowe
First-half bust: Larry Johnson
Second-half sleeper: Jamaal Charles
Second-half bust: Larry Johnson
Breakdown: It's unlikely Johnson will return from his suspension and make an impact on your Fantasy team, so you might consider releasing him if you need the roster space. Charles has the chance to win the job for the rest of this year and the future, and you should also keep an eye on Kolby Smith. Bowe has remained a quality Fantasy wide receiver despite the up-and-down first half for Matt Cassel, but you can count on Bowe to keep playing well. And also see what happens with Cassel, who is still worth stashing as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback.

Miami

First-half MVP: Ricky Williams
First-half bust: Ted Ginn, Jr.
Second-half sleeper: Brian Hartline
Second-half bust: Ricky Williams
Breakdown: The Dolphins have done a great job running the ball, but you expected Ronnie Brown to be a starting Fantasy option. No one thought Williams would be a Top 12 Fantasy running back, and it's hard to imagine he can sustain this pace at 32 and as the No. 2 guy in the backfield. Now, the Dolphins should post some great rushing stats in the next few weeks with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, Buffalo and Jacksonville, but you might want to trade Williams now while his value is high. As for Hartline, the Dolphins need someone to step up in the passing game, and he has the most potential.

Minnesota

First-half MVP: Brett Favre
First-half bust: Bernard Berrian
Second-half sleeper: Chester Taylor
Second-half bust: Brett Favre
Breakdown: The only reason Favre is listed as a bust for the second half is based on what happened last year when he fell apart for the Jets down the stretch. Hopefully that won't happen again, but he's 40 and dealing with some nagging injuries, so you need to be careful. He's playing at a high level now as a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback, and his receivers have turned into stars, especially Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe. Only Berrian has been a slight disappointment, which is likely due to his lingering hamstring problems.

New England

First-half MVP: Tom Brady
First-half bust: Fred Taylor
Second-half sleeper: Sam Aiken
Second-half bust: Laurence Maroney
Breakdown: You can make a case that Brady or Wes Welker is the first-half MVP, but Brady has returned as a Top 5 Fantasy quarterback and will likely finish the season in the Top 3. Brady, Welker and Randy Moss should be great in the second half, and the only reason Maroney is a bust candidate is the expected return of Sammy Morris (knee) and Fred Taylor (ankle). If you're looking for someone to stash on your roster, grab Aiken now since he could have a couple of big games as the No. 3 wide receiver.

New Orleans

First-half MVP: Jeremy Shockey
First-half bust: Lance Moore
Second-half sleeper: Reggie Bush
Second-half bust: Mike Bell
Breakdown: We all know Drew Brees is the best player for the Saints, with Marques Colston not far behind, but Shockey has played like a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, which has been a pleasant surprise. Hopefully the Saints have limited Bush's carries in the first half to save him and his creaky knees for the second half, so keep an eye on his production. And Bell's time might be running out with Pierre Thomas ready to take over as the full-time starter. It also appears that Moore might be a bust for the entire season.

New York Giants

First-half MVP: Steve Smith
First-half bust: Brandon Jacobs
Second-half sleeper: Kevin Boss
Second-half bust: Eli Manning
Breakdown: Manning is known for his second-half letdowns, and his foot injury might have caused that to happen early. That means you have to be cautious with Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham going forward, and the safe bet is to trade them now while their value is high. Jacobs also hasn't suffered an injury yet, and he's missed eight games over the past two seasons. That could lead to more production from Ahmad Bradshaw, but his foot injury has become a concern. The Giants could be in for a tough second half.

New York Jets

First-half MVP: Thomas Jones
First-half bust: Dustin Keller
Second-half sleeper: Shonn Greene
Second-half bust: Braylon Edwards
Breakdown: No one expected Jones to be a Top 5 running back this season, and he should finish as a star if you look at the Jets remaining schedule. If there's a player to target in trade, it's Jones, which is also why Greene should also play well in the second half. The Jets face some of the worst run defenses in Jacksonville, Carolina, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Atlanta. The Jets have already piled up some huge rushing totals against Buffalo and Oakland, and there should be more to come. Don't expect a lot of big passing games, which is why Edwards and even Jerricho Cotchery could struggle.

Oakland

First-half MVP: Justin Fargas
First-half bust: Darren McFadden
Second-half sleeper: Chaz Schilens
Second-half bust: Zach Miller
Breakdown: Miller can be considered the first-half MVP also based on his three games against the Chargers (twice) and Eagles, but Fargas had three games where he ran well against the Eagles, Jets and Chargers and gets the slight nod. The Raiders are terrible on offense, but hopefully Schilens can finish this season like he did last year after he gets healthy and provide a spark for the passing game. And we'll see what happens with McFadden and Fargas once McFadden returns from his knee injury in Week 10 against the Chiefs.

Philadelphia

First-half MVP: DeSean Jackson
First-half bust: Brian Westbrook
Second-half sleeper: LeSean McCoy
Second-half bust: Jeremy Maclin
Breakdown: Hopefully we've seen the end of Westbrook's injury woes now that he's coming back from the concussion. If not, McCoy has proven he can be a spot starter and has played well in the two games Westbrook missed in Week 3 against Kansas City and Week 8 against the Giants. Maclin's Fantasy value is tied to Kevin Curtis. If Curtis returns, Maclin's production could decline, but he still has value as long as Donovan McNabb keeps looking in his direction. And imagine how good Jackson would be if he caught more than just three passes a game.

Pittsburgh

First-half MVP: Ben Roethlisberger
First-half bust: Willie Parker
Second-half sleeper: Mike Wallace
Second-half bust: Rashard Mendenhall
Breakdown: You can make a case that Roethlisberger, Heath Miller or Mendenhall could be the first-half MVP. All three have emerged as starters when they were drafted as backup options or not even drafted at all. Wallace has emerged as a possible starting Fantasy wide receiver, and he's within three Fantasy points of Santonio Holmes heading into Week 9. Holmes and the Steelers DST are other bust candidates along with Parker, but Parker will likely play a role in the second half and cut into Mendenhall's production. I don't think Mendenhall will fall off completely, but I think his value will slip to where he's not a lock to be a Fantasy starter every week.

St. Louis

First-half MVP: Steven Jackson
First-half bust: Donnie Avery
Second-half sleeper: Keenan Burton
Second-half bust: Marc Bulger
Breakdown: The Rams have been tough to watch, especially in the passing game, and you have to feel bad for Jackson. He has been stellar this year despite playing from behind and playing behind a bad offensive line. Still, he's the only player you can count on from St. Louis and the only Fantasy option you can trust. Avery had his moments, but he's too inconsistent. And Bulger could be on the verge of losing his job if the Rams want to explore other options as they look toward the future.

San Diego

First-half MVP: Vincent Jackson
First-half bust: LaDainian Tomlinson
Second-half sleeper: Malcom Floyd
Second-half bust: Darren Sproles
Breakdown: Jackson is the No. 2 wide receiver in standard-scoring leagues, so he gets the nod over Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates, who everyone expected to play well. Floyd is someone to keep an eye on with his elevation to the starting group now that Chris Chambers was released. And Tomlinson is starting to come around and should have a strong second half, which is why Sproles could remain in a limited role. This could be Tomlinson's final stretch run with the Chargers, and hopefully he can go out with a bang.

San Francisco

First-half MVP: Vernon Davis
First-half bust: Shaun Hill
Second-half sleeper: Michael Crabtree
Second-half bust: Josh Morgan
Breakdown: Davis wasn't drafted in the majority of leagues, but he's emerged as a No. 1 tight end and goes into Week 9 leading the NFL in touchdowns with seven. The 49ers have plenty of talent on offense with Frank Gore, Davis and now Crabtree, who played better than expected in his first two games following the five-game holdout. The key will be the health of their offensive line. Morgan was expected to be a sleeper, but he lost his starting job. And Alex Smith could be a second-half sleeper now that he's taken over for Hill.

Seattle

First-half MVP: Nate Burleson
First-half bust: John Carlson
Second-half sleeper: Justin Forsett
Second-half bust: Julius Jones
Breakdown: Keep an eye on what the Seahawks decide to do with Forsett now that he's the No. 2 running back in Seattle behind Jones with Edgerrin James released. If he's available, add him now, and Jones could suffer if Forsett starts to get more carries. We love the way Burleson has played in his comeback from last year's torn ACL, and Matt Hasselbeck has also had a rebound year. Carlson could come back in the second half after being limited due to injuries on the offensive line, but we expected him to be a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this year.

Tampa Bay

First-half MVP: Cadillac Williams
First-half bust: Antonio Bryant
Second-half sleeper: Derrick Ward
Second-half bust: Kellen Winslow
Breakdown: Williams hasn't played this many games since 2006, so there's reason to be concerned he might not finish the year. Ward is a first-half bust also, but he might turn things around. You also never know if we might see Earnest Graham any time soon as well. Be careful with Winslow and Bryant now that rookie Josh Freeman is the starting quarterback, and they might not produce at a high level going forward. The Buccaneers haven't exactly been a bright spot for Fantasy owners, and that isn't expected to change in the second half.

Tennessee

First-half MVP: Chris Johnson
First-half bust: LenDale White
Second-half sleeper: LenDale White
Second-half bust: Nate Washington
Breakdown: Johnson has been the only starting Fantasy option for the Titans you can count on, which should continue, but don't be surprised if White has a strong second half. The Titans have a favorable schedule against weak run defenses in Buffalo, Houston, St. Louis, San Diego and Seattle, and White could start to score some touchdowns in tandem with Johnson. Also keep an eye out for Vince Young. Remember, as a rookie in 2006, he became a decent Fantasy option with 13 total touchdowns in the final two months of the season.

Washington

First-half MVP: Chris Cooley
First-half bust: Jason Campbell
Second-half sleeper: Fred Davis
Second-half bust: Clinton Portis
Breakdown: Since no one has stood out for the Redskins, we'll give Cooley the MVP based on his production and as a tribute to his injury. He also plays Fantasy Football, which is cool in our opinion. Be cautious with Portis going forward because his myriad of injuries and poor offensive line might lead to him shutting it down at some point toward the end of the year if the Redskins continue to lose. That could allow Ladell Betts to also be a second-half sleeper. We're counting on Davis to replace Cooley and finish the year as a No. 1 tight end.

What stood out to you this week? How did your Fantasy teams do? Drop us a line and tell us about it at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Midseason awards in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.