Fantasy & Reality: What made Week 12 so rough
Let's get one thing out of the way: I stink for suggesting that Jason Snelling was a good Fantasy start in Week 12.
I stink even more for saying that he would do better than Michael Turner. I apologize for thinking the Falcons had any common sense, whatsoever. Hopefully they've learned the lesson that the Bengals accepted, which is to let their star running back get healthy before rushing him out to help beat a team they didn't have to have him play against in order to win.
There, got that off my chest. Deep breath. I feel better already. Not that you are after enduring a mentally painful weekend in Fantasy.
This was a disappointing week for Fantasy owners. Well, not for the ones lucky enough to not have any last-minute lineup issues. Or those that had the brilliant foresight to start Fred Jackson, Larry Johnson, Vince Young, Kenny Britt and Mark Clayton.
You guys know what went down by now -- Ben Roethlisberger: Out. Kurt Warner: Out. Michael Turner: In, and not in a good way. Matt Hasselbeck: Punchless at St. Louis. Fred Jackson: Splitting reps and kicking butt. Steve Slaton: Splitting reps and a nightmare to deal with. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart: Splitting reps with each other, struggling in tandem against the Jets. Justin Forsett and Jamaal Charles: Not splitting reps and kicking tail ... potentially on your bench.
And did I mention that this is the time of year when Fantasy playoff spots are being claimed? Great timing. I need to breathe deep again ...
As I was on a plane home from New York on Sunday evening, I couldn't help but wonder if this was the kind of week that made some Fantasy Football owners contemplate quitting altogether. Not just for the season, but for good. I say this because this was a bad week to trust information by the teams. The Bengals all but assured the world that Cedric Benson would play, just as the Cardinals felt that Kurt Warner would be starting. Neither one was active. At least the Steelers gave us some foresight on Roethlisberger, though it came after Thursday's games, which caused pain with some Fantasy rosters.
Fantasy Football is a lot of fun, but it's the things we cannot control that can make the game aggravating. Take the Turner-Snelling situation: If the Falcons opted to ice Turner one more week and start Snelling and pair him with Jerious Norwood, they surely would have had as good of a rushing performance against the Bucs as they got with Turner (which isn't saying much). If it were up to Fantasy owners -- especially those that have Turner and Snelling -- they would not have wanted both to play. Now, Turner is hurt again after re-aggravating his high-ankle sprain on Sunday. Combine that with Matt Ryan's toe injury which left him in a walking boot (which has nothing to do with the running back situation) and the Falcons' win feels more like a loss -- and just in time for their push for the playoffs.
As a good friend once told me, you can't worry about the things you can't control. But there are things a Fantasy owner can do when the unexpected happens that can keep you in control. Carrying a backup quarterback, for instance, is never a bad idea. Having at least one "good enough" backup running back and receiver helps too. You could even get cute and analyze the matchups of your backups when going through your lineup each week and scan waivers for a better alternative -- just in case.
As for quitting ... well, NFL players and coaches don't quit when they lose games (unless their last name is Petrino). Fantasy owners should be reminded of that, at least to end the regular season. As grumpy and unhappy as you might be because your team lost or is not going to the playoffs, you should at least finish the season strong. Besides, there should be some satisfaction in potentially costing your friend/colleague/relative a playoff spot. Making the choice to stop playing Fantasy forever is easy for some, tough for others. The bottom line is that if you love football in general, it's hard to get away from playing Fantasy. Remember, you only have seven or eight months to make up your mind to play in 2010.
And in the event that you haven't had enough Fantasy Football this season, we've got you covered for the playoffs.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: No one in Kansas City is worth starting. I'll admit that I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley's hard-line coaching -- coaches have to earn the right to be that way with their players -- but he's making excellent use of Jamaal Charles and Chris Chambers. Charles is a lock for at least 15 touches a game and has shown off his wheels every single week. Chambers instantly became Matt Cassel's go-to receiver after Dwayne Bowe was suspended. Both are legit Fantasy starters, and the better news is that they play the Broncos, Bills and Browns all at home in their next three games.
Reality: No one in Chicago is worth starting. Fine, the Bears were outclassed by the Vikings on Sunday, but after seeing them limp out of their last four games (all losses), I can confidently say that none of these guys are going to be a big help to your teams going forward. I'd say so much more on this topic, but I have to save space. Heck, the Bears aren't even worth talking about.
Fantasy: The Panthers will run all over the Jets. Gotta hand this one to Rex Ryan and his defense for stacking the box and forcing the Panthers to throw the ball. That's as obvious a game plan as any for all of Carolina's opponents, but it's been proven that not just any defense can make it happen. The good news for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart? The Bucs come to Carolina next week. The bad news? The Patriots, Vikings, Giants and Saints are left to finish the season.
Reality: There's a big secret to Vince Young's success. Everyone is lauding Young for turning his career around and helping the Titans to five straight wins. Believe me, he deserves a lot of credit, but it's his supporting cast that's giving him a huge edge. In 2006-07, his receiving corps was made up of guys like Drew Bennett, Bobby Wade, Brandon Jones, Justin Gage, Roydell Williams, Bo Scaife and Eric Moulds. Not one of those players had unique explosiveness or speed. Now, Young is mainly supported by rookie Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Scaife, with Chris Johnson also pitching in. There's better athleticism there. Tack on the threat that Johnson provides defenses every single time he lines up behind or next to Young, and there's always somewhere for Young to put the ball. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback for Fantasy, but his receivers are starting to gain momentum and are worth claiming off waivers, if they're still there.
Fantasy: Terrell Owens was a one-week wonder. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. T.O. did an excellent job breaking away from single coverage at the same time Ryan Fitzpatrick noticed him streaking downfield while the Bills offensive line giving the quarterback time to make the throw. Buffalo's O-line was a mess for much of the game against the Dolphins, but on that particular play Owens and Fitzpatrick were perfect. Can they make it three straight weeks with a long touchdown against the Jets in Week 13?
Reality: The Jaguars secondary is a quarterback's dream. Do you own Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Brady Quinn? That's good, because it means you'll have a matchup against what sure looks like the worst secondary in the NFL before the end of the season. Even if they get cornerback Rashean Mathis back, Jacksonville's defensive backfield is absolutely gross. Beautiful for Fantasy owners, as those who started Alex Smith in Week 12 can attest.
Fantasy: The Texans are ready for postseason contention. Houston deserved every bit of its humiliating defeat to Indianapolis after blowing a 20-7 halftime lead in short order. I can't help but go with the c-word (that's choke) when thinking about them and their games with the Colts -- the Texans had them right where they wanted them in each of their last four meetings and they let 'em off the hook! Moreover, the Texans' run game continues to be a guessing game each week. I don't like Gary Kubiak's chances of being in Houston in 2010.
Reality: There is no worse way to lose a championship than how the Saskatchewan Roughriders lost the 97th Grey Cup in the CFL. Down two points with five seconds left, Montreal Alouettes kicker Damon Duvall missed a 43-yard field goal try that would have given the Roughriders the Cup, had they not been flagged for having too many men on the field. Instead, the 10-yard penalty was assessed and Duvall nailed a 33-yard field goal to give head coach Marc Trestman and the Alouettes a one-point victory.
OK, fine, I know it's not Fantasy Football ... at least NFL-related Fantasy Football ... but if you're a football freak like me then you can appreciate how the game ended. And it's along those lines why we play Fantasy Football in the first place -- we love football!
Strategy Session
What do I do if I own a player who suffered a concussion?
We have a quasi-epidemic in Fantasy and in the NFL right now, as players left and right are taking shots to the head and suffering the consequences. We all know already how the Steelers and Cardinals handled their quarterbacks, and in Week 12 Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson left after suffering a concussion.
I imagine we're a year away -- if not sooner -- from the NFL mandating that players who suffer a concussion miss a minimum of one game. Frankly, that's what's happening already after Roethlisberger and Warner sat this week, and Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook have also missed multiple games after being concussed.
Thus, if one of the players you're relying on in Fantasy leaves with a concussion, assume he'll miss the next game. This echoes what I said at the top of this column: Depth is important to keep evaluating. And even if you're an owner who did trade depth for studs, you still have roster room to tinker with. The waiver wire is your friend.
In the case of Jackson, figure the Eagles to be very conservative after they lost Brian Westbrook for several weeks after consecutive concussions. That might end up being a bad thing because the Eagles play against the pass-challenged Falcons secondary on the fast turf inside the Georgia Dome in Week 13, a solid matchup for him if there ever was one.
Parting shots
• Here's my Fantasy sob story from Week 12: In my deep 14-team league where running backs are valuable, I was all set to start Roethlisberger until the news came down Saturday that he was out. My backup? Kyle Orton. Our league rules: You can only carry three quarterbacks if two are on the same team. So I picked up Dennis Dixon ...
... And dropped Larry Johnson, who I had been carrying all along on the hopes that I could eventually get a good game out of him.
Worse yet, I lost my game by a wide margin, so if I had started Roethlisberger and eaten the zero I would at least have L.J. on my team.
• Pierre Garcon has arrived. Austin Collie is on his way. All this with Anthony Gonzalez sidelined. The Colts are richer at receiver than they've ever been.
• Brandon Jacobs has two games this season where he's been worth more than 10 Fantasy points in a standard-scoring league. He's averaging 3.9 yards per carry on the season but has topped that average in just five games, falling below 3.6 yards per rush in the other six. And he's averaging one touchdown a month. Let this be yet another reminder that running backs who land big contracts typically struggle the following year.
• That said, what's Matt Forte's excuse?
• I believe Justin Forsett has made his case to the Seahawks' brass for the starting job. I'll be stunned if they pull what Atlanta did and replace him with Julius Jones at this point.
• Everyone is so worried about losing their Colts and Saints starters during Weeks 15, 16 and/or 17 because they'll have clinched their playoff spots, but the Cardinals and Cowboys are on the brink of landing their best-possible seeds in a couple of weeks, assuming they don't suffer a meltdown along the way. Just something to keep an eye on.
• Speaking of the playoffs, I don't think the Titans will get in, but they have a very good chance to finish at 9-7 and boast arguably the league's top running back. They play at Indianapolis next week, but that might be their only loss as they finish the season with the Rams, Dolphins and Chargers at home followed by a trip to see the Seahawks. None of these defenses are aggressive against the run.
Johnson is 709 yards away from Eric Dickerson's NFL-record 2,105 yards rushing in a single season. To make the record, he'll need to average 141.8 yards per game. He's also 739 yards shy from hitting Marshall Faulk's 2,429 yards from scrimmage record for a single season, which means he'd have to average 147.8 yards per game rushing and receiving. It's not as much of a longshot as you might think.
And all this from a guy who has fumbled the ball twice in 544 career touches. That's why he's on the way to being the clear-cut No. 1 overall choice for owners in 2010.
Got a football gripe or a Fantasy misfortune to vent about? Or even something good to brag about? Drop Dave a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, shout it out to Dave on Twitter at @daverichard.
