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Dave Richard

History Lessons: History of Eli vs. Donovan

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


If the New York Giants want to climb back into the race for the NFC East, this weekend is their best shot. They host the Eagles on Sunday night. A win at least puts them in a tie with Philadelphia and a game back of the Cowboys. A win also gives them the tiebreaker over the Eagles for the time being (division record) to go with their tiebreaker over the Cowboys.

And if the Eagles want to take a step toward locking up the NFC East, they need to win, which would give them the tiebreaker over the Giants and at least a share of first place in the division with three games to play.

Fantasy Football owners want to win this week too, especially with the playoffs kicking in across most leagues. Both teams are close to having all of their skill-position players on the field, so there will be no shortage of implications stemming from this matchup. There's also no shortage of history between these bitter rivals.

Fantasy Football - History Lessons: History of Eli vs. Donovan : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

Two players Fantasy owners are clamoring for advice over this week are Eagles rusher LeSean McCoy and receiver DeSean Jackson. Let's start with McCoy, who broke a 66-yard run for a touchdown to further ice the Eagles' win over the Giants back in Week 8. The Philly rookie has more or less assumed the primary rushing role even though Leonard Weaver has taken some work off his plate and veteran Brian Westbrook is preparing a return. He's got some hope for a big game as the Eagles have rushed for a touchdown (be it a running back, a quarterback or a receiver) in each of their last four against the Giants. Furthermore, Eagles running backs have totaled five touchdowns in the last five against the Giants. You'd have to go back to Week 4 of the 2007 season to find the last time the Eagles haven't run for a score against New York. This bodes well for McCoy -- the only concern with him is the drop off in touches he had last week against the Falcons.

Jackson is expected to play in his first game since suffering a concussion but he's been "lights out" against the Giants. In three games over his career against Big Blue he's scored twice, including a receiving touchdown on three catches for 78 yards earlier this year. Jackson has also scored and/or had 90 receiving yards in four of his last five games.

What makes Jackson particularly risky, and all of the Eagles' receivers and tight ends, is Donovan McNabb's history not necessarily against the Giants but at Giants Stadium: He's never thrown more than one touchdown pass against New York, either the Giants or the Jets! That's over his career (since 1999). He's never even had a 300-yard game there; he didn't get his first 200-yard game there until 2004. So while McNabb's body of work against the Giants is prolific, the majority of his stats have come in Philadelphia.

Which further explains why Brian Westbrook has played well over his history at Giants Stadium. And provides that extra glimmer of hope for McCoy on Sunday since McCoy is slated to be the rusher with the most touches in the game.

What about the Giants?

Will Brandon Jacobs post another surprising stat line like he did last week? Can Eli Manning throw multiple touchdowns for the fourth time in five games?

History would tell you not to bet on it. Jacobs has the better shot to produce totals based on his previous play against Philadelphia. In his last six overall he has just two 100-total-yard games and three touchdowns. And yes, that's not very good -- which should tell you just how bad Manning has been against the Eagles.

Manning has been McNabb-at-Giants-Stadium-esque, failing to throw more than one touchdown in five of his last six against Philadelphia. You'd have to go back to 2006 to find the last time Manning was consistently effective against the Birds. And just because we were curious, we checked out how Manning has done against the Eagles at Giants Stadium. Like McNabb, he's been roughed up -- his last multi-score game against the Eagles at home was in 2005. He has two touchdowns and five interceptions vs. Philadelphia since 2006.

Manning has been especially limited since Plaxico Burress left the Giants' active roster, totaling two touchdowns, four interceptions and 514 total passing yards in three games since Plax's incident. But it should also be mentioned here that Manning has yet to play against the Eagles with his full complement of receivers. When they met in Week 8, Mario Manningham was inactive. He'll play on Sunday, and it could be enough to cause some issues for Philadelphia.

A gaffe to go away from Gore?

Starting Frank Gore has been commonplace in Fantasy for a long time, but a lot of owners are nervous about using him in Week 14 against the Cardinals. Gore has averaged just over 2.0 yards per carry in his last two games and has been getting by on his receiving duties, which has included two touchdowns over his last two games. But the most dangerous issue is that Gore is averaging less than 11 carries per game over his last three. Taking on a Cardinals run defense that just made Adrian Peterson look like the other Adrian Peterson last week just adds to the concern.

But Gore has been a monster against the Cardinals, including in Week 1 of this season. In his last five he's totaled six touchdowns with just fewer than 600 total yards. That's strong. He's also scored in every home game this season with 90 total yards or more in all but his most recent outing against the Jaguars at Candlestick Park. Between all that he's done, and the fact that he's still been relatively productive in spite of his limited carries, Gore looks good for Week 14.

Cardinals not OK by the bay

Kurt Warner might like San Francisco as a city, but he must despise Candlestick Park.

Sticking with the stadium/quarterback relationship theme, Warner has played there a lot over the course of his career with the Cardinals and Rams, has never had a multi-touchdown game there while with the Cards. In fact, his last multi-touchdown game against the 49ers in San Francisco was in 2001 with 'The Greatest Show on Turf' Rams. In three starts as the Cardinals quarterback there he has one 300-yard game, two games less than 200 yards and two total touchdowns.

And so if Warner struggles there, do Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin slide at the Stick as well? Not as much -- each have three touchdowns at the Niners in their last five meetings, though neither has had a 100-yard game there since 2005.

Given how the 49ers defense has been playing of late, it's almost impossible to bench Warner, Fitzgerald or Boldin. But if they struggle this week, we'll all know that it's not the first time.

A different Bronco for the Colts to tame

Thinking about sitting Reggie Wayne? Unsure of what to expect from Peyton Manning? Rest easy, folks -- history is on your side.

The Broncos, arguably Manning's favorite opponent, gallop into Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 14, and Manning should be grinning from ear to ear. In games where he hasn't left to rest up for the playoffs, Manning is 6-1 all-time against the Broncos. He's scored 15 touchdowns in his last four meaningful games against the Broncos -- seven to Reggie Wayne. That should ease some concerns about the Colts' passing offense, especially those about Pierre Garcon.

But there's a catch -- the Broncos were coached by Mike Shanahan for all of those games, which meant Manning more or less tore apart a secondary that wasn't very varied. Not only do the Broncos have a new defensive scheme and coordinator (Mike Nolan has been running a 3-4 scheme), but new Denver head coach Josh McDaniels has a completely different history with Manning as he was part of the Patriots' coaching staff that at one point shut him down before he returned the favor.

What makes the matchup all the more intriguing is that the Broncos will have Brian Dawkins playing safety. Dawkins has had a solid year and has been a big part of limiting opposing tight ends' stats -- not exactly good news for Dallas Clark. Excluding Pro Bowls, Dawkins has faced Manning three times over their careers: He owns no interceptions or forced fumbles, but he has taken away Manning's tight ends in every meeting, including holding Dallas Clark to a 4-yard catch in 2006. The Broncos have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends all season (two in one game against the Redskins), and Dawkins is a big reason why.

History says these players will enjoy Week 14 ...
Joseph Addai 276 total yards, TD in two career games vs. Broncos
Drew Brees Two-plus TDs, over 300 yards on avg. in last three vs. Falcons
Reggie Bush TD in each of last three vs. Falcons
Jamaal Charles 67 total yards, TD in limited role vs. Buffalo in 2008
Lee Evans Five catches, 110 yards at Chiefs in 2008
Ryan Grant 367 rush yards, four total TDs in last four vs. Bears
Greg Jennings TD in each of last three vs. Bears (106 rec. yards vs. CHI in Week 1)
Marshawn Lynch 20 car., 79 yards, TD; 25 rec. yards at KC last season
Aaron Rodgers Five TDs in three career starts vs. Bears
Pierre Thomas Four TDs, 209 total yards in last two vs. Falcons (not a typo!)
Roddy White 340 yards, 2 TDs in last three vs. Saints
History tells a sad story for these players ...
Jay Cutler Four INTs, one TD in Week 1 game vs. Packers
Donald Driver 14 rec., 162 yards, no TDs in last three vs. Chicago
Matt Forte 55 rush yards, 0 rec. yards in Week 1 at GB (two TDs vs. GB in '08)
Tim Hightower Career 1.7 rush avg. vs. 49ers (121 yards receiving in Week 1)
Fred Jackson Nine car., 56 yards; two catches 20 yards at KC last season
Devery Henderson 50 or fewer yards in four of last five vs. Falcons
Matt Ryan Two touchdowns, four INTs in last two vs. Saints
Steve Smith (CAR) 150 yards, one TD in three career games vs. Belichick's Pats

How do you think history will treat you? E-mail your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons ing the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll get to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
10:23 AM
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
10:12 AM
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
10:04 AM
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

Kevin Smith
Smith wants return to Lions
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
2/10/2012
News: According to mlive.com, impending free agent RB Kevin Smith would like to return to the Lions in 2012. Smith, 25, re-signed with Detroit last November and had four starts in seven games. He finished the regular season with 72 carries for 356 yards and four touchdowns, plus had 22 receptions for 179 yards and three scores. "In every interview that I've done, even though I'm a free agent, I've referred to the team and me as us," Smith said. "I'm on the Lions roster in my opinion until I'm not on the Lions roster. That says it all."
Analysis: Smith is a former third-round selection by Detroit in 2008. He showed promise as a rookie, gaining 976 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 238 carries. He started 13 games in 2009 before suffering a season-ending injury to his left knee. He rushed for 747 yards and four touchdowns prior to his injury. Smith was phased out of the offense with the arrival of Jahvid Best in 2010. Detroit decided not to make him an offer when he became a restricted free agent after that season. After Best sustained a season-ending concussion last season, Detroit re-signed Smith. We'll find out if he can return to the Lions, who also have second-year RB Mikel Leshoure, who also is recovering from a season-ending Achilles tendon injury sustained in the preseason. Keep an eye on what happens with Smith, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick if he's back in Detroit.

 
 
 
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