Fantasy & Reality: Now, more than ever ...
Think Fantasy Football isn't about the matchups? Allow me to introduce Exhibit A that it is about matchups: Quinton Ganther.
I made the same mistake many of you did. I wrote him off as a practice-squad player who didn't deserve a long look. Maybe a flex option. But he played at Oakland, and that's where we made our mistake.
In spite of the Redskins' weak offensive line, in spite of his mere 14 carries with an average of 3.57 yards per rush and in spite of his average speed, he still scored twice and turned in a good enough stat line. He outproduced the likes Cedric Benson, DeAngelo Williams, Ricky Williams, Joseph Addai, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, LaDainian Tomlinson and Maurice Jones-Drew, all No. 1 options.
OK fine, no one was ever considering pulling one of those studs -- many of whom played well in their own right -- for Ganther. But the owners who debated between Ganther and Matt Forte, or Ganther and Jonathan Stewart or Ganther and anyone wearing a Bills, Falcons, Seahawks or Texans jersey are all kicking themselves for going with the guy that got them there and not the guy with the matchup.
We should have known.
For a long time I have had a problem with the Fantasy owners who "start their studs no matter what" in the Fantasy playoffs. It's like saying you've studied for your S.A.T.s simply by going to school every day of your life. I don't have a problem with starting studs per se (duh!), but not even opening your eyes to other options is close-minded.
Have you not realized we're at the point in the season where teams are licking stamps on their playbooks and dropping them off at the post office box on the corner? Have you forgotten that we've arrived at the point in the season where coaches begin evaluating talent on their own team for the future, even if it means losing a game? I don't know about you, but I'd rather start players against sleeping dogs than against strong opponents.
Next week, Tim Hightower (at Detroit) looks a lot better than Ryan Grant (at Pittsburgh). Laurence Maroney (at Buffalo) should outperform Pierre Thomas (vs. Dallas). Ryan Moats (at St. Louis) should do better than Forte (at Baltimore). There's even a pretty good chance that Jamaal Charles (vs. Cleveland) should outperform DeAngelo Williams (vs. Minnesota).
So do yourself this one favor: If you're fortunate enough to still be playing for something in Week 15, just consider your options. Don't start sleepers over studs just to be a superstar, but don't automatically rely on your studs either. Have a reason to go with your starters. You were smart enough to make the right choices thus far, why take the most important part of your team -- YOU -- out of the equation?
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: Donovan McNabb stinks at Giants Stadium. In what was likely his last hurrah at old Giants Stadium, McNabb threw two touchdown passes and averaged over 10 yards per attempt (275 yards passing in total), giving him his best outing there ever. It still paled in comparison to Eli Manning, who also debunked history (he had struggled both at home and in Philly over the majority of his career) and threw three touchdowns with a career-best 391 yards passing. Apparently no one opted to play defense in this matchup.
Reality: Diva or not, Brandon Marshall is exceptional. Let's review Marshall's 2009: He came back from offseason hip surgery as a camp malcontent because he didn't get a new contract. He claimed to not know the playbook and goofed off in practice while he authored blogs that suggested he should be traded. The team suspended him for his insubordination. He began on-time with the Broncos but was terrible through the first two weeks of the season. And while he had some highs and lows this year, no more proof that Marshall is a solid, talented player is needed after his 21-catch (an NFL record), 200-yard, two-touchdown game at Indianapolis on Sunday. With over 1,000 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this season, owners who stuck with Marshall through thick and thin deserve the stats they got from him in Week 14. And by the way, he's in a contract year.
Fantasy: The Steelers will pulverize the Browns. Nothing says "losing-skid buster" like a game against the Browns, right? Wrong! Cleveland's defensive line put forth its best effort in years and the Steelers couldn't do anything right. Tackling? Poor. Pass blocking? Barely existent. Run blocking? A joke. The Steelers deserved that loss.
Reality: Say bye-bye to Marion Barber's Fantasy value. Whether it's tough matchups or his offensive line not blocking well for him or his sharing of carries (or all of the above), Barber is a bust. He has four rushing touchdowns on the year, none in his last six games. Just file him in the long line of players who decline once they get guaranteed money. I don't know the cap ramifications of releasing him, but Barber's base salary jumps from under $700,000 this year to over $3.5 million in 2010 and only goes up from there. Don't be surprised to see Felix Jones and Tashard Choice as the running backs for the Cowboys in 2010.
Fantasy: It's a good thing that Mike Sims-Walker was active. It sure seemed like a gift from above on Sunday morning when the Jaguars made Sims-Walker active after being listed as doubtful. I'm not sure if head coach Jack Del Rio was trying to be Belichick-ian or just wanted to have a decoy out there to keep the Dolphins defense off of Maurice Jones-Drew's back, but whoever started Sims-Walker got bamboozled.
Reality: Randy Moss didn't give his best effort. Benching a 20-point stud for a five-point player in Fantasy is a tough pill to swallow, but nothing should grind the gears of an owner more than starting someone who doesn't play hard. We've seen this song and dance from Moss before, but he had seemingly been properly motivated by the Patriots since arriving there in 2007. Want proof that Moss wasn't entirely buying in vs. the Panthers? He had twice as many targets (four) as he had earfuls of Tom Brady on the sideline (two). Moss looked disconnected in those sessions with Brady and appeared to be disconnected on the field too.
But the Panthers were connected and knew that if they got physical with Moss that he'd get lazy.
"We stayed on top of him," Panthers safety Chris Harris told the Boston Globe after the game. "We were not going to let him catch a deep pass. That's his game. If he can't get it going, he gets out of synch."
"We knew he was going to shut it down," Panthers cornerback Chris Gamble, who had an interception while covering Moss, also told the Globe. "He'd just give up a lot -- slow down, he's not going deep, not trying to run a route. You can tell [by his] body language. I know everyone who plays against him, they can sense that. Once you get into him in the beginning of the game, he shuts it down a little bit."
How Moss, and the Patriots, respond to this outing will be crucial for his outlook over the rest of the season.
Strategy Session
The Colts have clinched the top seed in the AFC. Who will be the next team to clinch the best possible seed and potentially rest their starters?
By a process of elimination, we can learn which teams might rest their starters.
Out of the playoffs: Bears, Browns, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Lions, Raiders, Rams, Redskins
On life support: Bills, Panthers, Seahawks
These teams should continue to play to win, especially those with first-year head coaches who aren't expected to go anywhere this offseason (Bucs, Chiefs, Lions, Rams). We might see those four teams begin putting players on the bench or injured reserve in an attempt to evaluate young talent before the end of the season, but none of these teams have a rookie prospect behind a Fantasy stud that's looking for playing time.
There's still hope: 49ers, Dolphins, Giants, Falcons, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Titans
Simply put, these teams are still trying to make the playoffs. No reason why they'd rest their players unless in a blowout.
In the driver's seat for a wild card berth: Broncos, Cowboys, Jaguars, Packers
All of these teams but the Jaguars have a chance to still win their division (yes, even the Packers). That's more than enough reason to play, and in the case of the Jaguars they have seven teams nipping at their heels for their wild-card spot. None of these teams are resting.
Let's examine the rest:
Arizona: A win over the 49ers on Monday gives them the NFC West crown for the second year in a row. The only shot they have at getting a bye is to finish with a record better than or equal to the Vikings, who they hold the tiebreaker over thanks to their win last week. But that's unlikely considering the Vikings' record; while the Cardinals might want to have the No. 3 seed, there's not a ton of difference between that and the No. 4 seed (you still host a playoff game and go on the road if you advance). Expect Kurt Warner & Co. to have a seat before the end of the season, more than likely vs. the Packers in Week 17 -- especially if they play the Packers the following week, which is a possibility.
Cincinnati: One more win clinches the AFC North. That could be tough to come by next week at San Diego but the Week 16 home game vs. Kansas City sure looks like a clincher. Sure seems like Cedric Benson can pencil in an off day for Week 17 at the Jets (Larry Johnson would suddenly look good).
Minnesota: The Vikings still have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but it's a longshot (essentially, the Saints have to lose twice). One more win gives the Vikings the NFC North, and two more wins (or a win and an Eagles loss) gives the Vikings the No. 2 seed. You can almost count on Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson to be in street clothes for Week 17 vs. the Giants.
New England: If the Patriots want a home game in the playoffs they'll probably have to win out or at least stay a game ahead of the Dolphins and Jets, both of which are one game behind them. The Dolphins are the bigger threat since the Pats have the tiebreaker over the Jets locked up (division record).
New Orleans: At worst, the Saints have clinched the No. 2 seed in the NFC. But because of the potential tiebreaker the Vikings would have over the Saints if the Saints lose two games and the Vikings win out, New Orleans has to win twice more. Unless the Vikings fall down at Carolina next week while the Saints slip past the Cowboys, they'll play into Week 16. And if they're going for 16-0, they'll have to play their starters for at least part of Week 17 anyway.
Philadelphia: The Eagles are in the same boat as the Cardinals, though their clincher might not be until Week 17 at Dallas. They have a tough finish to the season (vs. the 49ers, vs. the Broncos, at the 'Boys) which doesn't help. For now assume that the Eagles will not rest their starters until Week 17, if at all.
San Diego: The Chargers could potentially land the No. 2 seed in the AFC next week with a win at home over the Bengals (talk about a game with major playoff implications) and a Broncos loss. The Chargers' Week 16 game at Tennessee and Week 17 game vs. the Redskins could both be without LaDainian Tomlinson, with Philip Rivers making a guest appearance at best. Of course, so long as the Broncos keep pace with a win in Week 15 (they host the Raiders), that Week 16 game will mean that the Chargers play hard.
What's going to happen with your Colts?
Let's pretend for one minute that you are Peyton Manning. Stop doing commercials for 10 seconds and focus on the task at hand: History. You've already locked up the NFL's consecutive regular-season games streak and will build on it with every win, and you're three games away from matching the Patriots' 16-0 record from 2007. Granted, winning that second ring is more important than potentially getting hurt (or getting one of your players hurt), but doing your part to establish yourself, your teammates and your city in NFL history is very significant. In fact, would it not be selfish to not go for a perfect regular season?
Colts head coach Jim Caldwell surely can't pass up the chance, at least as of now. Caldwell said on Monday that the Colts are preparing for their Thursday game at Jacksonville the same way they did for their previous 13 games and that they're not assigning playing time to anybody.
"The only thing that will deter anyone from playing time is health issue, whether or not obviously they're capable of playing," Caldwell said. "But other than that we're going to play ball and approach it the same way we do every week."
It only makes sense. It would be borderline ridiculous for the Colts to look at the opportunity to go 16-0 and shrug. What the Colts will likely do here is a happy medium between going for history and resting their starters: They'll play until the game is in hand. That's to suggest that if it's 21-3 with 9:00 to play in the fourth quarter, the starters will hit the showers early. Or if the Colts are getting lambasted, they'll accept defeat, wave the proverbial white flag and send in backup quarterback Curtis Painter with his mop. And if they lose along the way to 16-0, then you know they'll hold out their key players to finish the regular season.
Now that said, how they choose to win games becomes an issue. Do they give Manning 40 pass attempts or do they run the ball way more? Will Joseph Addai get 20 carries? 10 carries? Do they get by with Chad Simpson and Mike Hart at running back and give Addai some rest? Same thing for Dallas Clark, who got banged up catching his second touchdown on Sunday and has a history of getting hurt. Does he rest too?
In my mind, this is the bigger issue. They'll go for it, but do so intelligently. Sadly, this doesn't mean that Fantasy owners will have any semblance of a "sure thing" when it comes to the PT of their Colts this Thursday against the pesky Jaguars in Jacksonville, but assume that if they're truly playing it like they did their previous 13 games then the starters will have the chance to put up some numbers.
That said, if you own Colts and don't have a replacement for them already, it's time to hit the waiver wire. Anything could happen here, be it in the game or in the Colts' meeting rooms, that could hurt your Fantasy team. Be prepared.
Parting shots
• I've said it before and I'll say it again: The fairest tiebreaker for Fantasy commissioners to use is playoff seeding. If you're the No. 3 seed and you tie the No. 6 seed, you should get the nod by virtue of your higher seed. Just a suggestion, commishes.
• The next time you think a running back's career goes South just because he turns 30, think of Thomas Jones. He has over 1,100 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this season and he's 32. Hey, don't say we didn't warn you.
• This week's reason why Twitter is a great thing for Fantasy Football: We were able to take weather reports we received from Cleveland on Thursday and put them not just on our site, but in the palm of Twitter followers as well. Hopefully we saved some people from starting Ben Roethlisberger (even though the wind had only so much to do with how he played). You can follow me @daverichard.
• As someone who knows several people who have suffered through problems stemming from migraines, I don't short-change Percy Harvin's inactivity one iota. Shame on you if you're mad at the rookie for not playing because of the potentially debilitating illness.
• Happy to see Vincent Jackson back playing football. Missed ya there, big fella.
• Jamaal Charles. Must start. No doubt about it.
• I saw Keith Null throw in person once. I was right behind him, watching his passes fly. Actually had a quality arm with good precision. He was throwing in a t-shirt with no pass rush to 10-year old kids in a camp setting, of course.
• A sign that you're in too many leagues: You're down five points and have Larry Fitzgerald tonight but are going up against Frank Gore in one league. And in another league you're up by five points and have Frank Gore tonight but are going up against Larry Fitzgerald.
• If you own any combination of Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Brandon Marshall and Dallas Clark and had a bye in Week 14, your leaguemates are laughing at you.
• If you own any combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Rashard Mendenhall, Steven Jackson and Randy Moss and had a bye in Week 14, your leaguemates are cursing at you.
• In case you missed it, Lions running back Kevin Smith suffered a serious knee injury late in the Lions' Week 14 blowout loss to the Ravens. He'll miss the rest of the season for sure, and his status for 2010 is up in the air now too. I feel bad for the guy -- Smith is a passionate player with some really good skills. We have our first injury-risk running back for next year's Fantasy drafts.
Got a football gripe or a Fantasy misfortune to vent about? Or even something good to brag about? Drop Dave a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, shout it out to Dave on Twitter at @daverichard.
