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Dave Richard

History Lessons: Jackson, Maroney should shine

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Love 'em or hate 'em, the Cowboys are a big part of Fantasy Football.

Miles Austin has been a smash hit off of waivers, Roy E. Williams has rebounded after a miserable start and Jason Witten has shown flashes of brilliance in two of his last three games. What do these players have in common? They all catch passes from Tony Romo.

Romo is also a major Fantasy player; most of you might be planning to start him in your leagues this week. But at this critical juncture in the Fantasy season, information on every player must be taken into consideration before making a decision. Judging by Romo's matchup at New Orleans on Saturday night, he's not excluded from said research.

Let's start with what is essentially a giant billboard that reads "Sit Romo!" With thanks to CBSSports.com colleague Jamey Eisenberg for suggesting this research, we took a look at how opposing quarterbacks have done against the Saints this season in the Superdome. The results? Scary.

QB Comp. Yards TDs Ints
Matthew Stafford* 16/37 (43.2 pct.) 205 0 3
Mark Sanchez** 14/27 (51.9 pct.) 138 0 3
Eli Manning 14/31 (45.2 pct.) 178 1 1
Matt Ryan 19/42 (45.2 pct.) 289 1 3
Jake Delhomme 17/30 (56.7 pct.) 201 0 0
Tom Brady 21/36 (58.3 pct.) 237 0 2
*first NFL start
**fourth NFL start

Granted, aside from Brady all of these quarterbacks have proven to be shaky Fantasy options in the first place. It doesn't mean that the Saints' secondary hasn't been tested. The likes of the Eagles (Kevin Kolb), Redskins (Jason Campbell) and Falcons (Chris Redman just last week) have hung over 300 passing yards on the Saints secondary. They've just done it away from the Superdome.

But is there reason to ignore the aforementioned billboard? We think so. For starters, Romo is typically good for big stats in, ahem, controlled-weather environments. This includes domes, and frankly it includes Cowboys Stadium, which technically is not a dome because of the opening at the top but really it plays like one. When's the last time you saw wind there?

Here's a wrinkle that suggests good things for Romo: Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has seen Romo and the Cowboys offense before as the defensive coordinator of the Redskins. In two meaningful games where Romo was active for the full contest against Williams' defense, he's totaled 577 yards and six touchdowns with one interception. Granted, this was against a totally different group of players -- but the exact same play caller.

But here's one more that could tell the tale: Romo has been sacked two times or fewer in each of his last four games, and the Saints' defense hasn't sacked opposing quarterbacks more than twice in each of their last three. As such, Romo's last four outings have been great (1,108 passing yards, eight touchdowns, one interception) and the Saints' pass defense has cracked a bit in their previous three (926 passing yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions). Like most quarterbacks, Romo has been great when given time to throw and awful when he's under pressure. Furthermore, the only quarterbacks to play the Saints in New Orleans and take more than two sacks are Sanchez (four) and Ryan (three). There's no distinct advantage for the Saints pass rush at the Superdome.

Judging by how Williams' blitz packages have fared against Romo historically and against quarterbacks recently, the Cowboys should be able to throw the ball with success. Romo, Austin, Williams and Witten all stand to be good Fantasy options.

Jackson a pain for the Patriots

It's been no secret that Fred Jackson has taken over the primary rushing workload for the Bills. Marshawn Lynch gets touches too, but Jackson has seen as few as 13 carries and as many as 20 carries with at least three catches over the Bills' last three games. Do not expect a reversal of that workload this week when the Patriots come to Buffalo.

Jackson's history against New England is limited but explosive. In his last two games against the Patriots he's totaled 193 rush yards on 42 carries and 83 receiving yards and a touchdown on six catches. That's pretty good, and he's facing the Patriots with their defense on the skids.

The only catch is that Jackson was the every-down back for the Bills in both of those games; Lynch was either hurt or suspended. Still, expect Jackson and the Bills (including Lynch) to run their fair share against the Patriots, if only to keep the New England offense off the field. Jackson is a nice Fantasy option this week.

Maroney should be a monster

You are probably keen enough to know that Laurence Maroney is a safe start running the ball against the Bills this week. After all, Buffalo is last in the league against the run. He's even our Start of the Week.

But what you might find surprising (or maybe not if you're a Bills fan) is that the run game has been a very consistent part of how the Patriots take on the Bills. New England has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of their last six against Buffalo. You'd have to go back to Week 1 of 2006 to find the last time New England didn't score a rushing touchdown on the Bills. And if you think that streak is nifty, then hold on to your socks: The last time the Patriots didn't score a rushing touchdown at Buffalo was in 2003, which coincidentally was the last time the Bills beat the Patriots. That's right -- New England is going for its 13th straight win in the series.

Now that's some sick history. Maroney is as safe as they come this week assuming he doesn't fumble and get pulled in the game.

History says these players will enjoy Week 15 ...
Tom Brady 378 yards, 2 TDs, INT vs. BUF in Week 1; 300+ yards in last three vs. BUF
Antonio Bryant 115 yards, TD vs. SEA in 2008 meeting
John Carlson Scored on Bucs in last year's meeting (three catches, 11 yards)
Frank Gore 101 rush yards, 16 receiving yards, rush TD vs. PHI in 2008
Mario Manningham 58 yards, TD vs. Washington in Week 1
Brandon Marshall 67 yards, first career TD vs. OAK in Week 3 meeting
Darren McFadden Two TDs at Denver last year (48 total yards, FL, no TDs in Week 3 vs. DEN)
Donovan McNabb 280 yards, two TDs, INT vs. 49ers in 2008
Knowshon Moreno 90 rush yards, TD at Oakland in Week 3
Visanthe Shiancoe 38 yards, TD vs. Panthers in 2008
Benjamin Watson Four TDs in last five vs. Bills (two in Week 1)
History tells a sad story for these players ...
Anquan Boldin No TDs, 100-yard games in three vs. DET since breakout game as a rookie
Jason Campbell 5 TDs in five starts vs. Giants (zero 250-yard games)
Lee Evans Zero TDs, zero 100-yard games in career vs. NE (9 games)
Julius Jones 42 rush yards, minus-5 receiving yards vs. TB in 2008
Eli Manning Has never thrown two TDs in game vs. Redskins
Randy Moss No TDs, one 100-yard game (Week 1) in last three vs. Bills
Santana Moss One TD, zero 100-yard games in last five vs. Giants
Terrell Owens Two catches, 46 yards in Week 1 game vs. Patriots
Steve Smith (CAR) 70 yards, no TDs at Vikings in 2008
Wes Welker No TDs in five games as Patriot vs. Bills
DeAngelo Williams 27 rush yards, 17 receiving yards at Minnesota last year

How do you think history will treat you? E-mail your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll get to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

Kevin Smith
Smith wants return to Lions
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
2/10/2012
News: According to mlive.com, impending free agent RB Kevin Smith would like to return to the Lions in 2012. Smith, 25, re-signed with Detroit last November and had four starts in seven games. He finished the regular season with 72 carries for 356 yards and four touchdowns, plus had 22 receptions for 179 yards and three scores. "In every interview that I've done, even though I'm a free agent, I've referred to the team and me as us," Smith said. "I'm on the Lions roster in my opinion until I'm not on the Lions roster. That says it all."
Analysis: Smith is a former third-round selection by Detroit in 2008. He showed promise as a rookie, gaining 976 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 238 carries. He started 13 games in 2009 before suffering a season-ending injury to his left knee. He rushed for 747 yards and four touchdowns prior to his injury. Smith was phased out of the offense with the arrival of Jahvid Best in 2010. Detroit decided not to make him an offer when he became a restricted free agent after that season. After Best sustained a season-ending concussion last season, Detroit re-signed Smith. We'll find out if he can return to the Lions, who also have second-year RB Mikel Leshoure, who also is recovering from a season-ending Achilles tendon injury sustained in the preseason. Keep an eye on what happens with Smith, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick if he's back in Detroit.

 
 
 
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