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Dave Richard

First Response: There is no explanation

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


We saw and heard a lot of interesting things leading up to Sunday's slate of action.

For instance, we heard Browns head coach Eric Mangini talk in circles about his running back situation, especially with the reports that Josh Cribbs could be involved. We saw that the Packers were the second-ranked defense in the NFL, including third against the pass. And we saw and heard about a Steelers defense that was focused on regaining some momentum after being part of the reason why the team lost six straight games, including a humiliating defeat at Cleveland the week before.

But these things proved to be "red herrings," or as Wikipedia puts it, deliberate attempts to divert attention. What we were led to believed to be seeing? A running back mess in Cleveland with a possible breakout player involved, a tough matchup for a Steelers offense that had lost five straight games and a defense primed to get right versus an offense that was potent but not without faults.

What did we get? Two record-smashing performances and a third outing that even bests one of the other two stat lines.

Fantasy Football - First Response: There is no explanation : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

Jerome Harrison got the hot hand early for the Browns, looking sleeker and quicker than he had in weeks. Starting the game, he lost some early carries to teammate Chris Jennings and even one to Cribbs before eventually flashing some speed and giving the Browns a good rushing presence with 73 yards on 12 carries.

Deciding to keep giving him the ball in the second half was one of the best decisions Browns head coach Eric Mangini made all year. Behind an offensive line that was forced to re-shuffle due to injuries, Harrison trampled over the Chiefs in the second half from the get-go. His first second-half carry was for 11 yards; his second for 71 yards and the first of three touchdowns. Only six of his 22 second-half carries went for under 4 yards. And on the other touchdown drives he scored on, he carried the ball 8 of 13 plays and 5 of 6 plays. He was almost literally the entire Browns offense in the second half, and it showed: he finished with not just three touchdowns, but 286 rushing yards on 34 carries with 12 receiving yards for good measure.

Not to be out done, especially by a division rival, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger defied his tough matchup against the Packers and led Pittsburgh to a stunning come-from-behind victory to keep the team's faint playoff hopes alive. Making a conscious decision to throw much more than pass, Roethlisberger pushed Hines Ward and Heath Miller to over 100 yards receiving. He ultimately found himself with a whopping 484 yards, but down six points with three seconds to play from the Packers 19.

In what can only be described as joy for Steelers fans and Roethlisberger owners, and pain for Packers fans and owners going up against Roethlisberger in leagues, Big Ben fired a Super Bowl XLIII-esque pass to the left sideline of the end zone, where Mike Wallace did his best Santonio Holmes impersonation and nestled the ball in his hands and chest as he fell to the turf, his tiptoes scraping the grass along the way. Roethlisberger not only won the game for the Steelers (well, technically the extra point won the game ...) but he also finished with 503 yards passing and three touchdowns, the yardage a single-game best in the history of the Steelers' franchise.

But even that wasn't as good as Aaron Rodgers' performance, at least for Fantasy owners. Rodgers didn't break any Packers records, but his 383-yard, four total touchdown game with 22 yards rushing gave him three more Fantasy points than Roethlisberger in standard-scoring leagues.

Alas, both were out-done by Harrison, whose 47 Fantasy points were two better than Chris Johnson's Week 2 explosion and one point shy of Drew Brees' second-best 48 Fantasy points from Week 1 against the Lions (Tom Brady's 51 points in Week 6 is still the high mark of the season). That's a shame since Harrison wasn't started by nearly 90 percent of CBSSports.com's Fantasy owners. Had Mangini actually named him the starter and given some indications that he'd have a chance to play, we could have used him.

Let's take a look around at the rest of the Week 15 action.

Start of the Week result: Even the most pessimistic of Patriots fans who couldn't trust Laurence Maroney can't deny his good performance at Buffalo in Week 15. Maroney had 23 carries -- the same amount of Tom Brady pass attempts -- for 81 yards with a touchdown, essentially leading New England to victory on his own. While his play wasn't off the charts, he still delivered a nice stat line to his Fantasy owners while doing nothing to make people, Bill Belichick included, lose confidence in him.

Sit of the Week result: Darrelle Revis has struck again! This time his victim was Falcons receiver Roddy White, who had just 33 yards on four catches. He now joins the list of stud No. 1 wideouts who have done little to nothing against him, a list that includes Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Steve Smith of Carolina, Terrell Owens (twice) and Antonio Bryant. Next up for Revis: Reggie Wayne and the Colts. Wow.

Insane stat line of the day: You mean Jerome Harrison, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger didn't do it for you? OK, fine. How about Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones combining for 105 rushing yards and no touchdowns. Not only did Jerome Harrison do better than both of these studs combined, but so did Jamaal Charles, Michael Bush, Maurice Morris, Maurice Jones-Drew and Beanie Wells. Oh, and all of those running backs had a touchdown too. Isn't Fantasy Football wonderful?

Out-of-nowhere stat line of the day: Marion Barber had gone six weeks without a single touchdown, and there were signs that the Cowboys were beginning to seemingly phase him out of the offense. Barber broke through that notion, totaling 73 yards and scoring twice against a very good Saints run defense on Saturday night. Can he keep it up, and are owners willing to roll the dice on him again?

Guy we were way right about: There's Roethlisberger, who a lot of people shied away from because of his matchup and subpar offensive line. But we're especially proud of Beanie Wells, who has more or less wrangled the primary rushing job in Arizona away from Tim Hightower. Wells was in at the goal line on Kurt Warner's touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald and was out when Hightower took a goal-line plunge. But he racked up the yardage -- 110 on the ground and 13 through the air -- with a score of his own to help sink the Lions.

Guy we were way wrong about: Where do we begin with Texans running back Arian Foster? How about the part where Texans head coach Gary Kubiak raved about him all week and essentially promised him "opportunities," only to see him pull the string and put him on the bench following a fumble on Houston's first possession. That was the end of Foster's "opportunities" as Ryan Moats led the Texans with 46 rushing yards. We were all caught up in the hoopla of Quinton Ganther's big game at Oakland last week and figured Foster would get the same chance here against a weak Rams defense. We're disappointed in his stat line, and can only learn from this that in the heat of a game, anything can happen, and all of the research and pre-game evaluation doesn't do any good once the ball is kicked off.

Overachieving defense of the week: The Falcons had the disadvantage of going up against Thomas Jones and his mammoth offensive line this week, but as we noted earlier they did a great job against him, holding him to his worst rushing performance since Week 3 against the Titans. They also held off the Jets' passing game, which attempted to resurrect itself this week but ultimately didn't. With the Bills coming to the Georgia Dome in Week 16, the Falcons defense might just turn in another quality performance.

Underachieving defense of the week: So many to choose from: The Packers giving up over 500 passing yards was an incredible disappointment. The Cardinals were unable to slam the door on the Lions after shutting them out in the first half. The Texans did limit the Rams to 13 points but even that was a mild shock considering Keith Null was under center for St. Louis. But what about the Saints, who gave up just 24 points but yielded 312 passing yards to Tony Romo and over 140 rushing yards to the Cowboys (and the two Barber touchdowns). They had been so solid at home, but there's obviously a weakness there as Romo was the third straight quarterback to throw for over 300 yards against them. Next up for the Saints: Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers.

Names to add to your scout team:

Michael Bush, running back, Oakland (133 rush yards, 11 receiving yards, touchdown)
John Carlson, tight end, Seattle (86 receiving yards, touchdown)
Matt Cassel, quarterback, Kansas City (331 passing yards, two touchdowns, 10 rush yards)
Jerome Harrison, running back, Cleveland (goes without saying)
Todd Heap, tight end, Baltimore (56 receiving yards, two touchdowns)
Maurice Morris, running back, Detroit (126 rush yards, 35 receiving yards, touchdown)
Chaz Schilens, wide receiver, Oakland (two touchdowns over last three games)
David Thomas, tight end, New Orleans (77 rush yards in place of Jeremy Shockey)
Derrick Ward, running back, Tampa Bay (73 total yards, receiving touchdown)
Demetrius Williams, wide receiver, Baltimore (71 yards, touchdown)

Injury alerts:

Reggie Bush, knee; considered questionable for Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay
Glen Coffee, hamstring; considered questionable for Week 16 vs. Detroit
Trent Edwards, ankle; considered questionable for Week 16 at Atlanta
Justin Fargas, knee; considered questionable for Week 16 at Cleveland
Charlie Frye, head; considered doubtful for Week 16 at Cleveland
Sammie Stroughter, foot; considered doubtful for Week 16 at New Orleans
Michael Turner, ankle; considered questionable for Week 16 vs. Buffalo
Michael Vick, quad; considered questionable for Week 16 vs. Denver
DeAngelo Williams, ankle; considered questionable for Week 16 at N.Y. Giants

The last word:

Something's amiss with Tom Brady.

He hasn't had much consistency over his last five games, including this week's game against the Bills where he completed 11 of 23 passes for 115 yards with a short touchdown and an interception. In his last five Brady has five touchdowns vs. six interceptions and two 300-yard games to go with two games under 200 yards.

"It is a 60 minute game and doing that consistently has been a challenge for this team, for players, for leaders of this team, for coaches," Brady said Sunday night. "We are just trying to find ways to make those critical plays, when we get in the red area we have to score touchdowns, on third down we have to convert. We didn't convert well in the second half, we didn't have many points, we were on the sideline and couldn't sustain those drives. I was proud of that last third down. That was a big play for us to run out the clock there at the end. There just needs to be more of that.

"It wasn't all good, but certainly it was good enough. Obviously we have to try to find ways to play better."

Fantasy owners have gotten into trouble with some stud players of late, and Brady is no exception. He's failed to top 11 Fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues in three of his last four games, a huge decline from earlier this year when he was racking up at least 17 Fantasy points in all but one of his first 10 games.

Why the decline? That's the question. He hasn't faced lots of blistering pass rushes -- he hasn't been sacked in his last three games. The Randy Moss factor from last week was an issue then, but he stepped up and bounced back here.

One likely answer: He's being asked to throw less. He had 23 attempts on Sunday and averaged 32.3 attempts over his last three games. Thirty-two attempts was his low point over his first 10 games. Perhaps a combination of the Patriots' strong run game and the team's interest in keeping Brady fresh for a four-game postseason run is what's holding him back right now.

If there's a glimmer of hope, it's that the Patriots will continue their trend of attacking their opponents' main weaknesses next week when the secondary-challenged Jaguars come for a visit. If the weather is nice, we could see Brady return to form -- just in time for the Fantasy Championship week.

What stood out to you this week? How did your Fantasy teams do? Tell us via Twitter @daverichard. Or drop us a line and tell us about it at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Week 15 in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
11:38 AM
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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