Fantasy & Reality: Does Santa play Fantasy?

Dear Santa:

I've never sent you a Christmas wish list before. I assume that you're like the rest of the world and play Fantasy Football. With that being the case, you probably have witnessed the wild nature of games over the last two weeks, and really over the entire season. Studs like Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady and Calvin Johnson have become borderline duds over their last few games, and guys that were on the trash heap -- the likes of Miles Austin, Jamaal Charles and most recently Jerome Harrison -- have become gems. To put it in terms that you'd understand, it's like breaking out the reindeer and delivering gifts on June 25 instead of December 25.

But that's the nature of the beast when it comes to Fantasy Football. It's why we love Fantasy Football. But there are still some things I would like to wish for just to make playing the game a bit easier. Here's my list:

1. Better trainers in the Falcons facility. This is twice now that Michael Turner has tried to come back from a high-ankle sprain only to leave the game early after aggravating it. I know Turner said that the Jets were targeting the ankle and so forth, but that's irrelevant -- you have to expect to get hit playing football! The Falcons should have taken more precautions with their stud running back, who might not be the same until 2010.

2. A head coach in Houston who won't play games with his running backs. Week 15 was not the first time Texans coach Gary Kubiak proclaimed one running back would get a lot of playing time, only to pull him following a fumble. It happened earlier this year to Steve Slaton and it happened this week to Arian Foster. A lot of people started Foster with the understanding that he'd play a lot against a bad Rams run defense (which actually held its own). Turned out he was worth negative Fantasy points.

3. A revamped offensive line and good receivers in Chicago. OK, Santa, this is a biggie. We're asking for a lot here because Fantasy studs Matt Forte and Jay Cutler were reduced to benchwarmers this season. And the Bears have no first- or second-round draft picks this year, so we're kind of looking for a miracle here.

4. A long offseason of training and improvement for Mark Sanchez. Look, the Jets have the pieces in place: A powerful running game (assuming Thomas Jones is retained), a solid receiving corps (Braylon Edwards also needs to be retained) and a really nice offensive line. If Sanchez can improve on his efficiency and cut down on his turnovers, he'll be an absolute stud next season.

4a. A long offseason of training and improvement for Josh Freeman. Freeman's situation is almost on par with Sanchez's, though he's not quite surrounded by the same level of talent. But that's OK because Freeman has shown a propensity to make plays with what he's got around him. Again, a step forward in efficiency and a step backward on turnovers will make him really appealing.

5. Big play receivers for Chad Henne and Joe Flacco. Think of Henne and Flacco as where Sanchez and Freeman need to be. In the case of these quarterbacks, they simply need reliable help. Nobody has stepped up to be a reliable option for the Dolphins, and in Baltimore Derrick Mason nearly retired last July. Both teams could use Anquan Boldin, which begs the question: Can we clone Anquan Boldin?

6. Do absolutely nothing to change the offensive situations around Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Drew Brees, Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark and Larry Fitzgerald. We hold these studs to be self-evident. Not all studs are created equal. Please, Santa, don't go changin' these players on us.

7. New and interesting venues for free-agents-to-be like Chester Taylor, Jason Campbell, Mike Bell, Quinton Ganther, Leon Washington, Mark Clayton, Jerious Norwood, Darren Sproles, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels, Chris Chambers and Antonio Bryant. None of these guys are must-start, every week Fantasy studs (aside from Daniels). But they could be ...

8. Wellness in Carolina. No team should have to endure as many injuries as the Panthers have -- and still are.

9. Good football in Cleveland. The people there deserve it, no matter what the people in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore might say.

10. Have the NFL and the Players Association agree to terms of a new collective bargaining agreement. This will be the storyline of the offseason, and it obviously has Fantasy repercussions. The short story is that this year's free agency period will be very different if there's no new agreement. All of the NFL's young talent looking for a pay day will be restricted free agents. Moreover, the teams won't be obligated to spend as much money as they normally do, which could mean some serious roster upheaval for those franchises that are strapped for cash. Furthermore, there's still the chance of a lockout in 2011 without a new agreement. No football = no Fantasy Football. Not good.

So there's my list. I could add more but I figured I'd keep it short since this was my first time. Thanks for reading, and stay safe delivering presents this Friday -- here in America we've had our fair share of awful weather already this winter.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: The Browns will give Josh Cribbs a look at running back. Whether you started Cribbs or Chris Jennings, you're cringing at the stat line delivered by Jerome Harrison: 286 rushing yards, 12 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The 286 yards is third-best in NFL history. This from a guy who was sick last week and had just 9 yards on seven carries, and 301 rushing yards in his previous 13 games. It's also a Fantasy to believe that Harrison will ever have a week like this again. And yes, I do realize I'm saying that with a cushy matchup at home next week against the Raiders.

Reality: Tony Romo is laughing at the calendar. I love people who say "It's December, so that means Romo will struggle." Those are the same people who won't consider a running back because he's 30, or will sit a stud in the playoffs because the weather is cold. Romo has played three December games so far, totaling two 300-yard games, six touchdowns and no interceptions. He has tough matchups at the Redskins in Week 16 and vs. the Eagles in Week 17, which is cause for concern, but he's clearly not fading.

Fantasy: The Vikings defense will be too much for the Panthers offense. For the second road game in a row the Vikings looked like the Lions. This time, they couldn't get pressure on Matt Moore, who pulled a Favre and threw three touchdown passes for almost 300 yards. Brett Favre, meanwhile, pulled a Moore, failing to throw a touchdown with 224 passing yards and an interception. Injuries are a factor, especially on offense, but this team still could be on the verge of going one-and-done in the playoffs. A team like Philadelphia, Arizona or even Green Bay could wallop them right now.

Reality: Joe Flacco might end up being a stud Fantasy quarterback for the end of the season. It was excellent to see Flacco throw against the Bears, hitting Todd Heap for a pair of touchdowns. Heap was a big reason for Flacco's success earlier this year, and with matchups against pass-struggling defenses in Pittsburgh and Oakland to end the season, he could deliver some strong totals.

Strategy Session

Same topic as a week ago: Which teams will rest their starters in Week 16?

You're gonna love this answer: None of them.

It's a much-deserved boon for Fantasy owners. Only one team -- the Colts -- has their best possible playoff seed locked up, and they're expected to try and go undefeated, which means not benching their starters until a victory during a game is locked up.

Every other team in the playoff hunt has a higher position to go for. That means every other team with playoff aspirations will have their starters playing until the game is over or until the game is in hand. Fantasy owners should be happy with that either way.

What about the teams that have no playoff games in their future?

Based on my experience there are two types of teams with losing records left at this point in the season: Those that give a hoot and those that don't. Here are the primary factors to consider:

Are the teams playing at home or on the road?

Are they playing for a lame-duck head coach or one who is sure to be on staff the following year?

Are they a young team or an old team?

You'd like to think that every team will fight tooth and nail to finish the season strong, but it's not true. Several teams appear to be playing out the string and mailing it in. When this happens, you can forget about matchups, stats and past performance. You want to start players against these careless teams.

Buffalo: You'd like to think that the Bills will play hard for interim head coach Perry Fewell, but losing a close game to the arch-rival Patriots likely took the wind out of the players' sails. The Bills made a strange quarterback change, going back to Trent Edwards until he got hurt, then had to go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick who himself got dinged. That's a curious call. And Terrell Owens has seemingly packed up his U-Haul, posting on Twitter that "Sometimes things must come 2 an end, u hv 2 move on ... so looking 4wd to 2010." The Bills probably are ready to get warm and bail out of town as soon as possible. Last two opponents: at ATL, vs. IND

Chicago: There are conflicting reports regarding the future of head coach Lovie Smith with the Bears, with a recent refusal of a vote of confidence by GM Jerry Angelo casting a big shadow. A season with big expectations has gone awry, and the combination of last week's documented travel woes combined with the Bears' roster loaded with veterans has probably made this team uninterested. Last two opponents: vs. MIN, at DET

Seattle: Even with Jim Mora Jr. wrapping up his first season as head coach, there's little motivation for the Seahawks. They were pummeled in Week 15 by the Buccaneers, who entered the game with a 1-12 record. Again, lots of veteran players with a bad taste in their mouth. This team is ripe for an upheaval. Last two opponents: at GB, vs. TEN

I'm a little shocked to report that the list is done at three. Before Sunday, I figured Cleveland would be on the list, but they've got some momentum to go with two home games against suspect defenses (Oakland, Jacksonville). Maybe they finish with five wins. And Oakland also has that momentum after beating the Broncos. Now things can change in a week (Washington is always a candidate to go in the tank), but for now you can count on both of those teams to put up a fight.

As for the Chiefs, Lions and Rams, they have new head coaches who aren't expected to get fired at this point. Since that's the case, they'll evaluate talent with an eye toward 2010. It might mean new players on the field (Keith Null is an example; Drew Stanton will likely be another), which could also mean limited stat totals.

Parting shots

• For more on Harrison's huge day -- along with Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Arian Foster and Tom Brady, check out First Response.

• Boldin's touchdown looks like a forward pass from Kurt Warner to me. Not a lateral. But it's close. (Note: As of Tuesday morning, CBS Sports and Elias Sports Bureau are reviewing this play and the Drew Brees touchdown to Lance Moore. Stay tuned.)

• If Mike Holmgren winds up as the football "czar" in Cleveland, my money is on the Browns acquiring Matt Hasselbeck to be their short-term quarterback.

• This week's reason why Twitter is a great thing for Fantasy Football: We've already started to look ahead at key players in the 2010 season. Now of course we're going to cover this for the next several months here at CBSSports.com (yet another reason why the Fantasy Football season never ends), but I like to get into this topic now, especially with those owners who don't have a Fantasy league to play in. You can follow me @daverichard, where this week I'll start a Playoff Challenge league open to everyone who receives my Tweets.

• And along the lines of 2010 Fantasy drafts, if you haven't already checked out Jamey Eisenberg's article on Chris Johnson and the first round of drafts next year, you should. We're already looking at an interesting season. In 2009 we saw a strong resurgence of receiving talent combined with a lot of really good quarterbacks. Running backs came out of the woodwork too, but they'll be the first to go. It would not be a shock to see the first round of 2010 drafts be made up of nothing but running backs next summer.

Got a football gripe or a Fantasy misfortune to vent about? Or even something good to brag about? Drop Dave a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, shout it out to Dave on Twitter at @daverichard.