First Response: Stalled out in Indy

Senior Fantasy Writer

Dec. 27, 2009

The Colts run at a perfect season ended Sunday with a 29-15 loss against the Jets, and their play in Week 16 likely ruined many Fantasy championship games. As anticipated, the Colts decided to rest their starters.

There was a large sigh across the Fantasy community with 5:36 remaining in the third quarter when Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts stars came out of the game with a 15-10 lead. At that point, if you were relying on the Colts, your season probably ended.

Joseph Addai was the only regular Fantasy option to play well with six carries for 40 yards and a touchdown. But Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were disappointments.

Fantasy Football - First Response: Stalled out in Indy : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

Manning finished with 192 passing yards and no touchdowns, which was only his second game this year without a touchdown pass (Week 8 against San Francisco). He was started in 95 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com.

Wayne, who we listed as a "Bust Alert" in Start 'Em and Sit 'Em in part because of his matchup with Darrelle Revis, finished with three catches for 33 yards. He was started in 84 percent of leagues. And Clark had four catches for 57 yards. He was started in 98 percent of leagues.

There were signs that this could happen, including when the Colts kept Pierre Garcon (hand) out to protect his injury. The Colts had nothing to play for in this game besides a shot at perfection since the No. 1 seed in the AFC was locked up, and they were facing an aggressive defense in the Jets.

Then on Saturday, the Colts promoted quarterback Drew Willy from the practice squad to carry three quarterbacks on the active roster with Manning and backup Curtis Painter. That was an indication they were going to give Painter some playing time and wanted Willy as a backup in case Painter got hurt. You had to assume Manning wouldn't play a full game, which we said in his player update.

Now, some Fantasy owners probably didn't have the option of benching Manning, Wayne or Clark. For example, I had Manning in a playoff game, and my only backup quarterback was Jason Campbell. I felt more comfortable with the idea Manning would play better in a half than Campbell would in a full game.

Those were decisions many owners had to make in Week 16. And based on the start percentage, most of you stuck with the Colts.

It's unfortunate that coach Jim Caldwell didn't give a definitive statement that the Colts would choose to rest their stars, but that doesn't typically happen in the NFL. And hopefully if you did start the Colts you had other players on your team to carry you through this week in the Fantasy playoffs.

We know now the Colts will rest their stars in Week 17 at Buffalo, so look for Donald Brown, Austin Collie, Hank Baskett and Tom Santi to be possible sleepers against the Bills. And if your Fantasy championship is the final week of the season, keep Manning, Addai, Wayne and Clark on your bench.

They are not going to help you any more this season. The Colts are no longer perfect.

Let's take a look around at the rest of the Week 16 action.

Start of the Week review: Beanie Wells got off to a slow start against St. Louis, but he scored a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to give him a solid stat line. Wells finished with 17 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown and one catch for 25 yards, giving him 14 Fantasy points in a standard-scoring league. He split carries with Tim Hightower, who had 10 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 3 yards, but Wells had the better game. Wells now has three touchdowns in his past three games and is ending his rookie season on a high note. He has a tough matchup in Week 17 against Green Bay, but Wells should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy option against the Packers based on his recent play.

Sit of the Week review: Calvin Johnson played well at San Francisco with seven catches for 96 yards and two carries for 32 yards. But he lost two fumbles and finished with eight Fantasy points in a standard-scoring league. Still, that was better than expected considering his poor quarterback play with Drew Stanton starting and throwing three interceptions before being replaced by Daunte Culpepper. Johnson's outlook will improve in Week 17 against Chicago, but we can't wait for 2010 after he has a full offseason of work with franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, who was put on injured reserve with knee and shoulder injuries. That duo has a chance to be special as Stafford improves heading into his second year.

Insane stat line of the day: We expected Jonathan Stewart to play well once DeAngelo Williams (ankle) was ruled out at the Giants, but his performance was outstanding. Stewart had 28 carries for a team-record 206 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 16 yards. The Giants have struggled in run defense, especially giving up touchdowns, but it was a shock to see Stewart gash the defense for that many yards in New York. Stewart has posted two tremendous games in a row after running for 109 yards and a touchdown in Week 15 against Minnesota, and he could be a star in Week 17 against New Orleans if Williams is out again.

Out-of-nowhere stat line of the day: Arian Foster was a week too late. We thought Foster would be a star in Week 15 against St. Louis but instead a costly fumble ruined his day against the Rams. His outlook was unclear at Miami since Ryan Moats and Chris Brown were expected to be part of the rotation, but Foster stepped up with a big game to help keep the Texans in playoff contention. He had 19 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown and outplayed Moats (eight carries for 23 yards and four catches for 39 yards) and Brown (two carries for 9 yards and one catch for 1 yard). He has a tougher matchup in Week 17 against New England, but Foster could be worth a look in deeper leagues based on this performance. That is if you're ready to trust him again. Jabar Gaffney gets credit here also for his two touchdowns at Philadelphia.

Guy we were way right about: Jerome Harrison did well in his encore performance. He dominated Oakland one week after running all over Kansas City for 286 yards and three touchdowns. Harrison had 39 carries for 148 yards and a touchdown with a lost fumble against the Raiders. As we said throughout the week, where was this all year? Fantasy owners were robbed the chance of using Harrison because the Browns stuck with Jamal Lewis instead of giving Harrison a chance. He should finish the season on a positive note with a favorable matchup in Week 17 against Jacksonville, and it's safe to start Harrison as a No. 2 Fantasy running back.

Guy we were way wrong about: Vince Young had been on an outstanding run prior to Friday's game against San Diego with three games of at least 20 Fantasy points in his past four outings. But Young was miserable against the Chargers as the Titans got eliminated from playoff contention. Young was 8 of 21 passing for 89 yards and two interceptions with six carries for 40 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble. It was Young's worst game since taking over as a starter in Week 8, but he should rebound in Week 17 at Seattle and is worth using as a starting Fantasy option in deeper leagues.

Overachieving defense of the week: We expected San Francisco (vs. DET), Arizona (vs. STL), Cleveland (vs. OAK) and Atlanta (vs. BUF) to play well with favorable matchups against backup quarterbacks, and all four defenses did a solid job. But Carolina going into New York and shutting down the Giants was a surprise. The Panthers had two interceptions, two fumble recoveries and four sacks in a 41-9 victory, and their secondary continues to shine. Already this year the Panthers have held Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Eli Manning to one touchdown or less with an interception in each game. The Panthers face Brees again in Week 17, so don't be surprised if Brees has another tough outing.

Underachieving defense of the week: Speaking of the Panthers, they made the Giants look like a junior varsity team in their last game at Giants Stadium. Matt Moore threw three touchdown passes along with Stewart's big game, and the Giants had only one sack with no turnovers. Osi Umenyiora is threatening to quit the team, and the defense appears to have finally broken after playing through a plethora of injuries all year. It doesn't look good for defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan, who has struggled to replace the departed Steve Spagnuolo, and this performance has likely cost the Giants a shot at the playoffs.

Names to add to your scout team ...

Arian Foster, running back, Houston (97 rushing yards and a touchdown at Miami)
Lex Hilliard, running back, Miami (12 rushing yards and a touchdown and 74 receiving yards and a touchdown against Houston
Brandon Jackson, running back, Green Bay (20 rushing yards and two touchdowns and 19 receiving yards and one touchdown against Seattle)
Mike Tolbert, running back, San Diego (60 rushing yards, 11 receiving yards at Tennessee)
Jabar Gaffney, wide receiver, Denver (69 receiving yards and two touchdowns at Philadelphia)

Injury alerts ...

Ricky Williams, shoulder, considered questionable for Week 17 against Pittsburgh
Pierre Thomas, ribs, considered questionable for Week 17 at Carolina
Brandon Jacobs, knee, considered questionable for Week 17 at Minnesota
Steve Smith, broken forearm, out for Week 17 against New Orleans
Torry Holt, finger, considered questionable for Week 17 at Cleveland
Tony Gonzalez, calf, considered questionable for Week 17 at Tampa Bay
Marcedes Lewis, head, considered questionable for Week 17 at Cleveland

The last word: Dave Richard and I are already looking ahead to 2010, and we recently ran our projected Top 12 picks in a story I did on Chris Johnson.

This week, we ran our projected list of the Top 12 wide receivers for 2010 in a story I did on Andre Johnson.

We know you love that Fantasy Football fix even when the games end, so keep checking here as we start to breakdown the offseason and get you ready for 2010 with keeper suggestions and draft prep. Just because the regular season is over that doesn't mean our work is done.

What stood out to you this week? How did your Fantasy teams do? Drop us a line and tell us about it at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Week 16 in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.

Garrett: Murray tweaked hamstring
DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
5/21/2013

News: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told the media Tuesday running back DeMarco Murray tweaked a hamstring over the last week. The team opted to be conservative with him and had him sit out practice on Tuesday. Murray was spotted on the sidelines during the Cowboys' first day of OTA workouts.

Analysis: Murray's injury history goes a long way back -- and the Cowboys know it. Keeping him healthy will be a tough chore for the next several months but taking careful, proactive steps like this will keep him from being absent. His health will remain key as he's missed nine games over his first two seasons in the league and has had the injury bug biting him going back to his high school days. But Murray had 10-plus Fantasy points in half of his 10 games last season and has the confidence of the coaching staff. He's a moderately risky No. 2 Fantasy running back expected to get taken between 25th and 40th overall on Draft Day.

Amendola gets to work with Brady
Danny Amendola, WR, NE
5/21/2013

News: The media got to check out the Patriots' second day of OTA workouts in New England. The Boston Globe reports new Pats wideout Danny Amendola spent a lot of time with Tom Brady, working primarily in the slot. According to the Patriots' official website Amendola looked sharp, ran his routes well and got in and out of his breaks quickly. He appeared comfortable which shouldn't be surprising given his past work in Josh McDaniels' offense. "It's familiar," Amendola said. "When Josh was in St. Louis, I got to know it pretty good. It's a little more intricate out here. It's something to grasp. I'm learning every day. It's the verbiage. That's the most important thing, the vocabulary of the offense. I'm learning, day in and day out, studying at night."

Analysis: Amendola is vitally important to the Patriots' offense after the team let Wes Welker go in free agency last year. It's tough to expect Amendola to completely replace Welker in their scheme but he has the potential to be a major factor if he can stay healthy. That's a big if -- he's missed 20 games over the last two seasons. So long as you accept Amendola as an injury-risk who doesn't have the experience of being a volume receiver like Welker, you'll be fine. Amendola is safest as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a pick in Round 7 or 8.

MJD's training moves to Miami
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
5/21/2013

News: Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley confirmed that running back Maurice Jones-Drew will step up the intensity in his workouts in Miami with noted trainer Pete Bommarito. MJD is working his way back from a Lisfranc injury. Bradley is fine with the move because he and Jones-Drew are on the same page with where the running back is at, according to the Florida Times-Union. Bradley especially wanted Jones-Drew in camp while the team installed the offense. "It’s going to take some time and it should come back," Bradley said of Jones-Drew's injured foot. "We're just taking the next step in the rehab process."

Analysis: Expectations remain MJD will be ready for the start of training camp in July and potentially be on the field for a June minicamp. Fantasy owners need to see him before drafting to have some level of confidence in his game. The injury he suffered is a tough one to come back from. On the plus side, Jones-Drew had at least 1,600 total yards in each of his previous three seasons before 2012 when he held out of training camp and ultimately got hurt after six games. Some will be afraid to draft the 28-year-old but most owners should go ahead and consider Jones-Drew a Top 15 running back for now, making him worth a pick between 20th and 30th overall in drafts assuming he is a full participant in Jags camp. That seems to be on pace to happen.

Uninfected Gronk has surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/21/2013

News: Rob Gronkowski had successful surgery on his left forearm Monday and doctors found no infection inside according to multiple reports. He had a new plate installed in his arm to keep things in place inside his forearm and should be done having surgery there. A consultation on his back is expected within the next three to four weeks with surgery to potentially follow.

Analysis: Great news! Unless there's a setback with the arm or a serious issue with his back Gronkowski should be ready for the start of training camp. That makes him a safer pick in Fantasy Football since he'll have the time to get ready for the season and potentially play 16 games. We're not out of the woods yet but be ready to consider Gronk with a Top 20 pick in drafts this summer.

Romo out until minicamp
Tony Romo, QB, DAL
5/21/2013

News: The Dallas Morning News reports Tony Romo had a cyst removed from his back and will be out until at least Cowboys minicamp in June. He should be fine for training camp. "If this was the regular season and I had to play next week, I could," Romo said. "This is just about being smart. That’s why I did it now. This will have no effect on training camp. No way will it have an impact. And I still think there’s a good chance I’m on the field for minicamp."

Analysis: Romo isn't a quarterback anyone is targeting on Draft Day, he's more like a passer you'll settle for starting in Round 6. There's nothing wrong with that: Romo was one of 10 quarterbacks to average over 20 Fantasy points per game (in standard formats) and has consistently put up big numbers, albeit not amazing numbers. Fantasy owners can win with Romo as their starter.

Miller works with first team
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA
5/21/2013

News: The Miami Herald reports that Dolphins running back Lamar Miller opened with the first team during Tuesday's OTA workout. The report says Miller "showed his usual good burst." Daniel Thomas and Marcus Thigpen got work behind Miller.

Analysis: Miller is expected to start for the Dolphins this year, and he should enter training camp as a potential No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a pick as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues. He recently said his goals for the season were 1,500 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. We hope he can live up to his words because he could be a special Fantasy option if that happens.

Bolden misses OTA workouts
Brandon Bolden, RB, NE
5/21/2013

News: The Boston Globe reports running back Brandon Bolden was absent from OTA practice Tuesday after spraining his ankle while training. He's expected to return in late May/early June.

Analysis: Bolden is expected to be buried on the depth chart behind starter Stevan Ridley, among others. He's unlikely to help Fantasy owners in 2013 so long as Ridley is healthy.

Taylor has hernia surgery
Jamar Taylor, CB, MIA
5/21/2013

News: Dolphins rookie cornerback Jamar Taylor had surgery to repair a hernia and will cost him up to three weeks of practice time. He's a candidate to be back for a June minicamp and should be OK for the start of training camp.

Analysis: Taylor was impressive at the Senior Bowl and certainly erased any concerns about his overall athleticism with a stellar performance at the combine. Taylor is a better all-around player than former Boise State standout Kyle Wilson, who was selected by the Jets 29th overall in 2010. But since he's a corner, he has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in most standard IDP leagues, and he's only worth a late-round pick in rookie-only IDP formats.

Goodson will plead not guilty
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/21/2013

News: The Newark Star-Ledger has learned Jets running back Mike Goodson will plead not guilty to drug and weapons charges stemming from a mid-May arrest. His lawyer is confident jail time will be avoided. A hearing is scheduled for June 12.

Analysis: Goodson is taking in Jets workouts from the sideline, a sure sign that his roster spot is up in the air. Between the courts and the league there's no guarantee that Goodson will play for all of the 2013 season. For now owners shouldn't have him on their radars, though if his attorney is as innocent as he suggests, that would change before the majority of people hold their Fantasy drafts.

Giants remain confident with Cruz
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
5/21/2013

News: USA Today reports that Giants chairman Steve Tisch remains confident a deal with receiver Victor Cruz is coming soon. "We're talking. (Cruz's agent) Tom Condon is talking to (Giants general manager) Jerry (Reese) and I'm personally confident that Victor wants to be a Giant, will be a Giant," Tisch said. "He's a great guy. It's just taking its time." The report says Cruz and the Giants have made some progress but a deal isn't imminent, despite a report from the New York Post stating the sides were at the "2-yard line." At this point, it seems they're barely in the red zone, but things could change as the spring winds down. Cruz has yet to sign the tender he was extended as a restricted free agent that would pay him $2.879 million. The Giants could lower the rate to $630,000 if Cruz hasn't signed by June 17, but that might only strain the negotiations.

Analysis: We hope that Cruz is signed prior to training camp because we don't want to see a potential holdout. Continue to monitor what develops, and if Cruz signs on time then he would remain a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick as early as Round 4. If he ends up holding out then his value will decline.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings