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Dave Richard

First Response: Welker's injury a long-term issue

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


For some of us, Week 17 is when Fantasy league titles are awarded. For others, Week 17 means nothing. For some NFL teams, Week 17 is when division titles and playoff berths are awarded. For others, Week 17 means nothing.

But there's nothing worse than a Week 17 injury. Just ask Wes Welker.

The Patriots' sure-handed receiver made his first catch of the afternoon at Houston on Sunday, planted his left foot and tried to make a cut before falling to the ground. As Bernard Pollard (he of Tom Brady knee-crushing fame) dove past missing the tackle, Welker clutched his left knee and writhed in pain on the ground. He was helped to the sidelines, where he buried his face in a towel, then covered his head in a towel as he was carted to the locker room.

Game over. Season over. Questions abound on his status for the 2010 campaign. This loss hurts everyone: Welker. The Patriots. Welker's Fantasy owners in Week 17. Welker's prospective Fantasy owners in 2010.

Obviously Welker's speed could be compromised by this injury. Sure, his hands are his best weapons, but his incredible route running is what has gotten him open for over 110 catches in each of his three years with the Patriots, a streak in a semblance of jeopardy now.

Brady will miss him in the playoffs as a short-area receiver, though it seems pretty clear that the Patriots' first-team offense saw more playing time so Brady and Julian Edelman could build some chemistry heading into next week. Edelman finished with 10 catches for 104 yards, both career highs, and caught six of those passes from Brady, who targeted him eight times. Brady should be OK with him as his short-area guy come the playoffs.

That's the slippery slope of playing football in Week 17. As it turned out, the Patriots lost the game even with Brady throwing 26 passes. The Patriots could have just as easily rested their starters and kept Welker healthy for the playoffs and still lost. But playing to win comes with a price, just as it does any other week of the season. Only Fantasy owners in dynasty/keeper leagues know whether or not they'll have Welker on their teams next season. Everyone else won't know until their drafts months from now. But he's obviously an injury-risk much like his quarterback, Brady, was entering this season. But this is worse than Brady, who had nearly a calendar year to recover -- torn knee ligaments typically take nine months to come back from and Welker got hurt in early January. He'll be lucky to be close to 100 percent recovered and rehabbed by September, much less be in game shape. Those who take him in 2010 drafts might not get the best out of him until Week 4 or 5, which will certainly hurt his draft stock. And that's if his rehab and recovery goes as well as Brady's did last offseason.

Let's take a look around at the rest of the Week 17 action.

Start of the Week result: Three touchdowns for Ben Roethlisberger against the Dolphins made him a solid Fantasy passer this week. And even though he fumbled the ball away once, his 220 passing yards and extra push on the ground (17 rush yards) were a help. Roethlisberger had the second-best passing touchdown output of his career this season with 26 and a career-best 4,328 passing yards. His yardage numbers have trended upward over his last four years, and with a terrific trio of wideouts to go with an improved tight end and a good run game to keep defenses honest, Roethlisberger has the makings of a safe No. 1 Fantasy passer in drafts this summer.

Sit of the Week result: Chad Ochocinco got off to a rough start against the Jets and cornerback Darrelle Revis on Sunday night, going catchless in his first 30 minutes of play with a drop. With the winds howling and Revis shadowing him, it seems tough for Ochocinco to have his way. We'll know more come Monday.

Insane stat line of the day: Believe it: Brett Favre saved his best work for Week 17 in December at home against the Giants, throwing for 316 yards and four touchdowns in just under 40 minutes of total game clock. Really a masterful effort against a New York secondary that couldn't wait for the season to end. So much for Adrian Peterson leading the way for the Vikings into the postseason.

Out-of-nowhere stat line of the day: We knew the Ravens would run all over the Raiders, but we didn't think Willis McGahee would dwarf Ray Rice's stats in the last game of the season. McGahee rounded out his season with three touchdowns and 167 rush yards on 16 carries. McGahee had six total touchdowns in his first four games and five in his last four. In between: Two touchdowns. The Ravens are going to have to take a long hard look at keeping him on their roster in 2010 even if his contract totals are expensive.

Guy we were way right about: As much as my colleague Jamey Eisenberg wants me to impress you with his incredibly gutsy call on Jaguars tight end Zach Miller (not the Raiders' Zach Miller, mind you), I'd rather alert you to one of our gutsiest picks of the year: Devin Aromashodu of the Bears. Playing with a loose cannon at quarterback and sharing the field with another speedy Devin (that would be Devin Hester), Aromashodu caught five passes for 46 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Lions on Sunday. Aromashodu ends his season with four touchdowns in four games and has to be penciled in by the Bears to start next season. We're pretty sure Jay Cutler would be fine with that.

Guy we were way wrong about: Let's call this "Guys" instead of "Guy" and give it to anyone in a Packers uniform. We knew they had a good chance to see these Cardinals again and figured that they'd take the opportunity to rest their starters and not divulge any physical traits of what they do to a fellow playoff-bound team. We were incorrect -- the Packers came at the Cardinals, who opted to rest many of their veteran starters, and steamrolled them. Ryan Grant had a touchdown, Jermichael Finley had another and Aaron Rodgers threw for one and ran for another. Tack on a defensive touchdown by the Packers and you had a thorough message sent to the Cardinals a week in advance of their playoff matchup. It would be impressive if they did it again next week.

Overachieving defense of the week: Aside from yielding a couple of touchdowns to Knowshon Moreno, you've got to love the effort Kansas City's unit put up. They intercepted Kyle Orton three times -- two for Derrick Johnson touchdowns -- and racked up a couple of sacks to boot. And for a defense that's struggled against the run to hold Moreno & Co. to 84 rush yards is also very impressive. Nice end to the season for them.

Underachieving defense of the week: The Eagles didn't get the memo that their Week 17 showdown with the Cowboys was for the NFC East title, and for them a bye week. Philly's typically aggressive defense was tame with a pair of sacks and an early interception of Tony Romo. Meanwhile, Dallas had a pair of 91-yard rushers and three touchdowns, two by Romo. Not a good omen for them when you consider they will play the Cowboys again in Dallas in the Wild Card Game next week.

Early breakouts and sleepers for 2010 drafts:

Devin Aromashodu, wide receiver, Chicago
Josh Freeman, quarterback, Tampa Bay
Malcom Floyd, wide receiver, San Diego
Brandon Gibson, wide receiver, St. Louis
Chad Henne, quarterback, Miami
Fred Jackson, running back, Buffalo
Matt Moore, quarterback, Carolina
Hakeem Nicks, wide receiver, N.Y. Giants
Brandon Pettigrew, tight end, Detroit
Chaz Schilens, wide receiver, Oakland

Injury alerts for 2010:

Ahmad Bradshaw, N.Y. Giants, ankle/foot
Ronnie Brown, Miami, foot
Marc Bulger, St. Louis, knee
Chris Cooley, Washington, ankle
Owen Daniels, Houston, knee
James Davis, Cleveland, shoulder
Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis, knee
Brandon Jacobs, N.Y. Giants, knee
Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit, knee
Clinton Portis, Washington, head
Laurent Robinson, St. Louis, ankle, leg
Steve Slaton, Houston, neck
Kevin Smith, Detroit, knee
Steve Smith, Carolina, arm
Matthew Stafford, Detroit, shoulder/knee
Michael Turner, Atlanta, ankle
Wes Welker, New England, knee

The last word:

Fantasy Football might be stressful at times, and for the Fantasy owners who came up short in Week 17 in their quest for a championship, Fantasy Football is the worst thing in the world.

But it's also fun. It's a great way to be involved with the NFL and stay in the loop with your favorite players and teams.

We understand that passion fully, which is why we never stop looking at the big picture for Fantasy Football.

Beginning this week, we'll begin an experts' mock draft for the 2010 season and start going over the good and the bad from the 2009 campaign. We'll also begin taking a long look at the incoming, and impressive, crop of rookies that will impact Fantasy play next year. Pretty soon, we'll have full rankings for next year as well as projections to go with them.

But just in case you're not tired of playing Fantasy Football, we've got one last league for you: Play with our experts and other fans in our Playoff Challenge league and have a chance to beat our pros and end the 2009 season with a big, big victory.

Either way, there's never a time to stop coming by CBSSports.com to get your Fantasy Football fix. Many of our loyal year-round readers have claimed Fantasy titles just by dissecting the league right alongside us. You can attain that goal in 2010 too. Just like anything else, it takes a little work and perseverance. We're here to help and we're here to stay on top of the NFL every single day. Be a part of it.

What stood out to you this week? How did your Fantasy teams do? Tell us via Twitter @daverichard. Or drop us a line and tell us about it at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Week 17 in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
11:38 AM
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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