Fantasy & Reality: A note from the future
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
The following is my funny little way of making predictions for the 2010 Fantasy season. I did this figuring that it would be more interesting to talk about next year instead of looking back on this year. Yes, you will read things that sound strange considering that I've taken some, ahem, serious liberties with the NFL's players and upcoming draft class. It's all meant to get your wheels spinning forward -- there's nothing any of us can do about the 2009 season. It's all about 2010 now, baby.
Greetings from the future!
The 2010 regular season is in the books, and what a year it was. The Packers upended Brett Favre and the Vikings on their way to the No. 1 seed in the NFC while the Chargers continued their divisional dominance en route to landing the AFC's top seed. The Texans landed a wild-card berth, finally, as did the Broncos in the AFC while the Falcons and 49ers reclaimed some glory by making the playoffs with a strong push to the finish line.
For the second year in a row, there were too many great quarterbacks. Not that Fantasy owners had a problem with this. Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton and Chad Henne joined the ranks of the elite NFL quarterbacks with 4,000-yard seasons with at least 20 touchdowns. If you recall, the 2009 season had 10 passers hit the 4,000-yard mark -- an NFL record at the time. That record was shattered when 12 quarterbacks did it here in '10. The NFL continues to evolve into a passing league.
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| Does Chad Henne take the next step in his development in 2010? (US Presswire) |
There weren't many 2010 busts in the wide receiver group as the great ones kept getting better. That helped those owners who secured Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson with first- and second-round picks very happy. The receiver class of 2009 continued to pay off dividends as Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Johnny Knox, Austin Collie and Brandon Tate all excelled. That more than made up for the weak rookie crop that didn't live up to the hopes that the '09 class did; only Dez Bryant of the Dolphins and Mardy Gilyard of the Bears were reliable. Fantasy owners were especially disappointed with the lackluster play of Randy Moss, who even got benched for a week.
But no position made Fantasy owners happier than the tight end spot. Like the quarterbacks, this position continued to flourish. We saw far more quality tight ends emerge including John Carlson, Jermichael Finley, Zach Miller and Brandon Pettigrew while the one big-name tight end from 2009 -- Vernon Davis -- fell backward into mediocrity, making him one of the biggest busts of the year (holding out from training camp sure came back to bite him). Not even the announcement that Tony Gonzalez will retire following his playoff run was enough to dampen the spirits of Fantasy owners, who now more than ever are considering the elite tight ends earlier than ever before.
Some other notes from 2010 to make note of:
The Buccaneers, Chiefs, Rams and Redskins made dramatic improvements and are all trendy picks to compete for the playoffs in the 2011 season -- if there is a 2011 season.
Teams are still looking for that elusive quarterback of the future. Colt McCoy of the Raiders, Jimmy Clausen of the Bills and Sam Bradford of the Rams (a Round 2 selection) all fizzled out this season in extended playing time. All three need some receiver help for next season -- if there is a next season. University of Washington quarterback Jake Locker is crossing his fingers.
There's no shortage of teams willing to pay Bill Cowher to be their head coach. After sitting out the 2010 season because he loved his work at CBS and wanted to stay one more year, Cowher has several high-profile, big-market suitors, including the Giants, Bears and Jaguars (rumors have them moving to Los Angeles).
Brandon Marshall will finally get his chance to test free agency after playing chicken with the Broncos' brass all offseason long. He more than made up for it with his best season ever, and there is no shortage of teams looking to make him the highest-paid receiver in NFL history -- if they don't lock him and the rest of the NFL's players out first.
The Cardinals find themselves with a tough decision: Stick with Matt Leinart, who bombed in six starts in place of the injured/retired Kurt Warner, or pick a quarterback of the future. The team's offense has already regressed after trading Anquan Boldin to the Ravens, but with no legitimate quarterback threat they're faced with the inevitable: Becoming a running team. That helped them stay in close games thanks to Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, but they clearly need a passer to put them back on top of the NFC West.
The Bengals proved to be one-year wonders, not that Chad Ochocinco-Johnson's knee injury during his infamous "skip around the stadium" touchdown celebration did anything to help the team. Jerome Simpson was not effective in his replacement of Ochocinco-Johnson. The team has to re-build in a major way before returning to their competitive level next year -- if there is a next year.
Wes Welker's inspired return from torn left knee ligaments ended with him falling one catch short of 100 -- he had 99. Missing the first three games of the season didn't help him, but putting up his worst yards per catch average of his career at 9.4 didn't help Fantasy owners much, nor did his five touchdown catches, which is actually more than he had when he was healthy for 15-plus games in 2009. He'll need a major bounce-back season in 2011 ... you know the rest.
The only uncertainty that faces not just Fantasy owners, but all people involved with the NFL, including fans, is a work stoppage. Though the league says they're doing everything in its power to maintain positive conversation with the Players Association, every day without a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is a day closer to having no NFL games in 2011. Nothing is certain at this time, other than the fact that two sides can't determine how to split a billion-dollar pie fairly in a recovering economy.
Fortunately, UFL Fantasy leagues are an option available. Now if we could just get our heads around drafting those guys ...
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the season's action.
Fantasy: Matt Forte is a solid first-round pick. It goes without saying that Forte was a big disappointment to Fantasy owners in 2009. Sure, he had 1,400 total yards, which is pretty darn good, but it was obvious that Forte only showed up in games where he had a great matchup and was nowhere to be seen in tough matchups. That made him tough to deal with. And now here's a guy with a wide-open future as far as Fantasy goes.
Reality: Tony Gonzalez will be a good Fantasy tight end, but not the best. This one is just uncanny: Gonzalez finished fifth among players at his position in standard-scoring leagues. Our projection for him heading into 2009: 81 catches, 906 yards, six touchdowns. His final 2009 stat line: 83 catches, 867 yards, six touchdowns. Not sure he'll even be this good in 2010.
Fantasy: Roy E. Williams will be a big help to the Cowboys and to Fantasy owners. I know Williams is a huge Fantasy player, which is why I can't help but think that at some point this season he put his mojo aside and benched himself. His seven touchdowns were cool, and his 15.7 yards per catch average was also a welcome sight, but his lack of grabs (38) and yardage (596) made him unbearable. Only three times all season did Williams have more than seven Fantasy points in standard formats. Three! Even worse, Patrick Crayton had more receiving yards than Williams, who finished fourth on the team.
Reality: Michael Turner will disappoint. Turner's 2009 season was still pretty good in spite of how it ended, but it paled in comparison to his 2008 breakout year. Much of it can be blamed on how the Falcons handled him following his high-ankle sprain in Week 10. Had they not rushed him back, he could have finished the season strong and maybe done something to help the Falcons get into the playoff hunt. Turner is a great candidate to rebound strong next season after taking on 178 carries in '09.
Fantasy: Don't worry about Vince Young this year. The Titans might have loaded up on receivers to enhance Kerry Collins' strengths, but it was Young who benefitted from them. The team's change at quarterback when they were 0-6 led them to a dazzling 8-2 record in their last 10 games and a respectable 8-8 record. He averaged 187.9 passing yards and 28.1 rushing yards per start, which is also respectable. Young has already committed to working hard this offseason to be the team's leader in 2010. Because of his ridiculous potential, someone in every league will take him right on the border of the low-end No. 1/top-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks this summer.
Reality: Brett Favre was better than we, or anyone, could have hoped for. Admittedly, we thought Favre's journey with the Vikings would be successful, but not to the point where Favre would become a rock-solid No. 1 Fantasy quarterback at age 40. His arm? In great shape. His body? Banged up but still able to take every hit. His accuracy? Solid. His receiving corps? Amazing, and it's because of those receivers, along with the impact run game the Vikings have with Adrian Peterson, that led to Favre having his best Fantasy season since his 39-touchdown campaign in 1996. Now that is incredible.
Strategy Session
Is there a right way for Fantasy leagues to approach Week 17?
Last week I suggested several alternatives to standard Fantasy scoring for those leagues that insist on using Week 17. The reaction was phenomenal.
"Let it go, Dave," Ken from Houston wrote. "The human element is part of what makes Fantasy work."
"These ideas are great," wrote Barb from Lexington, Kentucky. "Can we implement one or more of them next year?"
"Sounds like you lost your Fantasy games in Week 16 because Peyton got pulled," Fred in Hackensack, N.J. wrote. "Boo hoo hoo, Dave. Cry us a river."
While I was unaffected by Manning (or any Colts) in my leagues in Week 16, I am interested in getting an idea of what is a good recommendation for leagues to make the most of Week 17.
Now there are those die-hard leagues that will play their Fantasy championships in Week 17 and not blink. That's cool. But what about those Fantasy owners who won't risk their championships on how long Aaron Rodgers plays or how many stats Reggie Wayne can rack up? Why should they have to lean on Dwayne Jarrett, Mike Tolbert or Derek Anderson if they don't want to?
The tribe has spoken:
There's this.
"I have a better suggestion for fixing Week 17: In-game substitutions," writes Matthew G. of Sterling Heights, Mich. "Add a feature to the league that allow players to swap out a player in-between quarters of a game (or during). ... This would add a level of depth for some owners, like me, who consistently see Matt Schaub put up great first half numbers then disappear the second half of football games."
And there's something for the math majors.
"Use weekly averages," Doug S. from Miami writes. "Before the game starts, the owner would decide if his player doesn't play the whole game, does the manager want to keep whatever stats his player does accumulate, or does he want to take the player's weekly average for that week?"
There's the concept of shortening the season.
"Instead of worrying how to deal with playing out a 14-game schedule, try playing a 13-game regular-season schedule. Ever since our league was founded 12 years ago, we have played our championship in Week 15," Will H. from Elizabeth City, N.C. writes. "In a 10-team, two-division league, it works out perfectly to play your division mates twice and each team in the opposite division once -- a nice, balanced schedule. While all you guys are complaining about how the Colts threw the game (and you knew it was coming), we had a competitive championship game the week before."
And there's the idea of extending the season, making for a hardcore Fantasy league.
"The Fantasy semi-finals are the last games played in the regular NFL season, so therefore the league extends a week or two longer," Matt P. from Manhattan, Ill. writes. "The two finalists earn the right to re-draft for the playoffs and the championship 'game' is played out during those weeks. What better reward is there than playing throughout the postseason, and what better way to determine the best league owner than by going through the Super Bowl?"
Or, there's this guy.
"Your ideas are stupid. Suck it up and have fun. It's Fantasy Football, after all," says Brian K. of Boca Raton, Fla.
The 2009 season is over. Should I forget about football and just stare at the wall for eight months?
Guess what your Fantasy record it? That's right, it's 0-0. You're winless. And you have work to do.
It's almost always the Fantasy owner who gets a head start on preparing for next year who does well. Someone is already printing out depth charts and getting his or her spreadsheets ready to follow offseason movement. And they're already winning.
There will be changes. And lots of wheeling and dealing. There's no new NFL labor agreement with the players, so as of this writing only players with six seasons or more under their belt will be unrestricted free agents if they are without a contract come March 1, 2010. And while those guys will get paid whatever they can get from those clubs who are spending without salary cap limits (another issue), it will be the players with five or fewer years in the league who are limited by the strange '10 CBA rules that will either be forced to re-sign with their teams or find a way out. And trades between teams with restricted free agents will probably be commonplace. It's going to be fun to watch, but you'll need to keep track.
How you as a Fantasy owner want to approach it is up to you. You could sit on your duff all offseason and pick up a magazine on your way to your draft and be completely unprepared for what's in store. Or, you could get on the ball and start prepping for 2010 now.
Stop by CBSSports.com every now and then and read what we have to say. Check out our player updates (they never stop). Follow our mock drafts (our first one starts this week) and chime in with us on Twitter (you can catch up with me @daverichard). Download and listen to our podcasts, watch our offseason videos or just do the traditional ol' electronic mail (preferably not from the future) asking questions that are on your mind (write us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com). We won't stop covering the game, and neither should you.
Parting shot: The coaching carousel edition
Last year at this time I took the liberty of predicting unemployment around the league and who was best to fill said unemployment. Bad times for NFL coaches, fun times for us.
Buffalo: Reports surfaced early morning that the Bills cleaned house. Who to replace it? I admit that it's a stretch to see Bill Cowher in Buffalo. Bad market, bad team with cheap owner. Not exactly the right place for him to succeed, so I don't see him going there. Ralph Wilson has a history of hiring a veteran coach with minimal excitement for the region, another reason why the team won't make a huge splash. But Bills fans would be excited about Ron Rivera, the current Chargers defensive coordinator. Rivera should be the hot coordinator in demand -- he has incredible experience running both 4-3 and 3-4 scheme defenses and has several years of work under his belt. He'll get his chance with the Bills.
Cleveland: I doubt Eric Mangini makes the final cut under Mike Holmgren, especially considering that Holmgren knows nothing about Mangini and isn't about to trust him. I know Holmgren is a big West Coast offense guy and the smart money is on him hiring a guy from the Bill Walsh family tree. But the defense in Cleveland is just as big of a mess as the offense, and leadership is the key factor in rebuilding both. Steve Mariucci has spent two seasons in front of NFL players on NFL Network and could be a good head coach -- not the play caller, not the offensive coordinator, just as the front man for a team loaded with Holmgren's guys. If Mooch wants back in, I think the Browns are a good spot for him. Plus he's a player's coach and won't start on the wrong foot with his guys like Mangini did on his never-ending bus ride to a football camp.
Oakland: I've come around a bit on Tom Cable. He's managed his team to some pretty incredible wins, and this team has won with the likes of Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye at quarterback. That doesn't happen by accident. But reports suggest that the Raiders will go in a new direction, which is something they almost have to do based on the in-house fighting between Cable and assistant Randy Hanson during the season. Your guess is as good as mine as to how the Raiders find someone qualified who wants the job. I don't know if Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams or Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh even consider the position knowing how cash-strapped they are and how meddling Al Davis can be. Of the coaches desperate for a head coaching gig, I think Leslie Frazier fits the Raiders best: He's a youngish ex-player with a good defensive mind who will already have a leg-up on rebuilding the Oakland defense with Nnamdi Asomugha in his defensive backfield. Then Davis could hire the offensive-minded coach of his choice to run his offense (JaMarcus Russell may or may not be included).
Washington: Mike Shanahan. Next?
I invite fans of these teams to share their thoughts. If you disagree, that's fine, HOWEVER, you must offer a suggestion if you're going to call me nuts/crazy/stupid/loony/nurazupidoony. E-mail me at dmfantasyfootbal@cbs.com.
Parting shots: The rest of them
• I like Commissioner Roger Goodell's suggestion to have teams announce who they'll rest if they're planning to rest any before late-season games. I like it because it's a step in the right direction. But it's not foolproof -- let's say the Patriots announced before their game at Houston that they planned to rest Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Who's to say how long they'll play before getting benched? They could play one snap and then hit the bench. Would the teams have to commit a quarter or a half to a player before the game starts? That still doesn't solve the problem of how long a team's group of first-teamers play -- I'd be willing to bet that the Patriots didn't intend on having Brady throw 26 passes and only kept him in there to get more reps with receiver Julian Edelman, who replaced Welker after his nasty knee injury.
Truth is, there's nothing the league can do about what a coach decides is best for his team. Whether it's the Colts going for 16-0 or the Rams checking out their seventh-round quarterback to see if he can hang in the league, coaches are the ones who make the call about who plays what and for how long. That's their right, and anything the league does to mettle with that right is grossly wrong.
Remember, if a team wants to sit their starters to rest them up for the playoffs, that's their right. They earn that right as a result of winning games earlier in the year and getting ready for their postseason run. Want to make them announce who may or may not play a full game? Fine, but it still doesn't provide whole-hearted clarity to the situation, and eventually those pre-game announcements will have its limits tested by coaches who flatly don't want their starters playing football.
• Two weeks ago Fantasy owners were cursing the name of Texans head coach Gary Kubiak after his Houdini act with running back Arian Foster following his first-series fumble at the Rams. I was none too pleased with him either, but an act of kindness by Kubiak has me changing my tune, and I hope it changes yours too.
Barry Rochkind is a close friend of my parents. He's a proud Texans season-ticket holder and a die-hard Fantasy Football owner. Late last week, Barry suffered a massive stroke. In an effort to try and cheer him up, my parents dialed up the Texans and asked if there was any way that Kubiak could sign a photo for him and mail it. Mind you, my parents aren't exactly aware of the demands of a football coach during the thick of a playoff race, so I didn't expect Kubiak or the Texans to respond anytime soon.
Barry got his autographed photo of Kubiak over the weekend, just in time for the Texans to finish with their best record ever.
I can't dislike anyone who goes out of their way to do something like that, especially for something as petty as playing running-back roulette. Kubiak has no idea who Barry is, and the Texans may have only acted here because Barry was a season-ticket holder, but the effort by the coach and the team is second to none. Texans fans might be upset about not making the playoffs, but they can be glad to know that they root for a first-class organization.
When I read Sunday night that Kubiak would "definitely" be back as the Texans head coach in 2010, I smiled. And then I moved Steve Slaton wayyy down my 2010 running back rank list. Just kidding.
• Chris Johnson: 2,509 total yards from scrimmage, an NFL record. Sixteen total touchdowns. Three fumbles lost. Didn't miss a game. Fantasy MVP.
• My playoff predictions:
Wild Card: The Jets will upend the Bengals; the Eagles step up past the Cowboys; the Ravens stun the Patriots and the Packers end the Cardinals' season.
Divisional Round: The Colts smoke the Ravens; the Chargers sneak past the Jets; the Saints beat the Eagles and the Packers deliver the ultimate dose of revenge and beat Favre and the Vikings by a nose.
Conference Championships: The Chargers take the Colts in Indy, and the Saints hold on against the Packers.
Super Bowl XLIV: I'm buying my own hype: The Chargers win it all. Philip Rivers is your Super Bowl MVP, and the unofficial president of his unofficial fan club does cartwheels in celebration.
Drop Dave a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Please put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. And be sure to follow him on Twitter @daverichard. He'll never sit on his promise for daily Fantasy Football advice during the offseason.
