Who might bounce back in 2010?

Senior Fantasy Writer

Jan. 25, 2010

There's no bigger player who bounced back in a big way in 2009 than Tom Brady. The Patriot passer's knee was shredded early in 2008, leading to months and months of rehab and speculation. Other than for a couple of instances when there was overwhelming pressure on him in the pocket, he was essentially the same passer we came to know him as before the injury.

Bounce-back players make for great stories. Calling them out before they bounce back is even better.

In Fantasy Football, the best part of eyeballing a bounce-back player is that you'll almost definitely get him at a discount in drafts based on where you got him a year ago. The worst part? There's a chance he'll be deserving of that draft status, if not worse. But let's be optimistic and zoom in on seven players who I believe will return to Fantasy glory in 2010.

Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City
2009 projections: 3,261 yards, 19 TDs, 14 INTs; 121 rush yards, two rush TDs
2009 actual: 2,924 yards, 16 TDs, 16 INTs; 189 rush yards, no rush TDs
What's the story? ... Expectations weren't overly high for Cassel heading into 2009, but the idea of him being a solid backup Fantasy passer wasn't ridiculous. After a sprained knee messed up the start of his season and a lack of time in the pocket hurt his early-season numbers, Cassel was on waiver wires from coast to coast. His numbers perked up once he had Jamaal Charles helping him out of the backfield and Chris Chambers rejuvenating his career, and his best stats came once he had those weapons and an active Dwayne Bowe all on his side. With a season of work under his belt, his offensive line expected to improve, his receiving corps seemingly stabilized and offensive guru Charlie Weis coming to work his magic in Kansas City, Cassel should see much improved stats. His schedule certainly doesn't hurt his cause, either.
2010 Fantasy draft outlook: Well worth a late-round pick as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback.

Chris Cooley, TE, Washington
2009 projections: 75 catches, 792 yards, five TDs
2009 actual: 29 catches, 332 yards, two TDs in seven starts
What's the story? ... Cooley's '09 campaign ended early because of a broken ankle, but the rehabilitation for an injury like that is not very long. Furthermore, new head coach Mike Shanahan has never been shy about using sure-handed tight ends in his offense (Shannon Sharpe is an example) and should lean on him. It also helps that new Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan helped the Texans offense and utilized Owen Daniels regularly. The only catch is the presence of Fred Davis, who played well in Cooley's place.
2010 Fantasy draft outlook: With all the great tight ends emerging in Fantasy Football last season, Cooley will be lost in the shuffle. If you whiff on other tight ends early you can pick up Cooley with a fairly late-round choice and be just fine.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago
2009 projections: 1,163 rush yards, eight TDs; 397 receiving yards, two rec. TDs
2009 actual: 929 rush yards, four TDs; 471 receiving yards, no rec. TDs
What's the story? ... The way Forte ended his 2009 season combined with some surgery he had after the year suggests that the Bears' offensive line isn't as big of a mess as first believed and that Forte played hurt for much of the season. He tore a hamstring before the season and had a knee problem during the year but played through both injuries, so a healthy return should yield healthier results. Forte also figures to be the key running back in the Chicago offense, putting him on par for 300 total touches -- a rarity for running backs in today's NFL. And if Jay Cutler can get the passing game to be a serious threat again, Forte will never see more than seven defenders in the box.
2010 Fantasy draft outlook: Forte won't fall too far in drafts -- think third-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy running back.

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore
2009 projections: 3,202 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs, 135 rush yards, two rush TDs
2009 actual: 3,613 yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs, 56 rush yards, no rush TDs
What's the story? ... Flacco got off to an amazing start, averaging over 20 Fantasy points per game (standard scoring) over his first six games. Then he slumped after his bye, posting no 300-yard games and two multi-touchdown outings over his final 10 contests. Even opponents like the Browns and Lions gave him trouble. The Ravens have to spend some time this offseason looking to give Flacco another dependable target -- and possibly two if Derrick Mason opts to retire. If Flacco can pick up some help when he throws downfield, he's going to erupt.
2010 Fantasy draft outlook: Flacco will be a trendy sleeper this summer, making him a middle- to late-round pick. If the Ravens add a good receiver, it will be warranted. If the Ravens add two good receivers, he will be a steal.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit
2009 projections: 92 rec., 1,396 yards, 11 TDs
2009 actual: 67 rec., 984 yards, 5 TDs
What's the story? ... Injuries both to him and rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford made Johnson's season a nightmare. But the silver lining is that Johnson played his best ball with Stafford (46 catches for 728 yards and three scores) than without him (19 catches for 256 yards and two scores). Stafford's not going anywhere and neither is Johnson, but the Lions' offense should continue to add talent around them in the next few months. Even with this awful season on his record, the expectations are that Johnson's radical ability combined with Stafford's strong arm can produce at least very good totals.
2010 Fantasy draft outlook: There will be someone eye-balling Johnson in every league this summer, but not with a Top-15 pick like last summer. He'll probably be a consensus late second-round pick, but the upside makes him worth it.

Eddie Royal, WR, Denver
2009 projections: 72 rec., 896 yards, six TDs
2009 actual: 37 rec., 345 yards, no TDs
What's the story? ... Royal admittedly struggled in his first year under head coach Josh McDaniels and couldn't adapt to learning to play all over the field instead of one spot. Blame the coach, blame the playbook, blame the offense and blame the player, but don't expect this to happen again in 2010. While Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler appear to be on the outs with the Broncos, Royal is the guy in McDaniels' crosshairs; the coach even said that Royal's production "will change dramatically next season."
2010 Fantasy draft outlook: Royal will definitely slip compared to where he was taken last year, but that's a good thing since he'll best serve Fantasy owners as a low-risk, high-reward Fantasy receiver who can be penciled in as a reserve player in standard formats. Once draft rounds get to double digits, Royal will come off the board.

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta
2009 projections: 1,275 rush yards, 12 rush TDs; 67 rec. yards
2009 actual: 871 rush yards, 10 rush TDs; 35 rec. yards in 11 games
What's the story? ... In general, Turner didn't have a bad year -- his trainers did. In treating a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 10 poorly and then rushing him back two weeks later, Turner's last seven games were wiped out and the Falcons' run game was hot and cold without him. While it took Turner time to get hot on the ground (one game with over 100 yards in his first six), he was a touchdown magnet in his first nine games when he didn't score in just two of them. Then in his seventh, eighth and ninth games he turned up the juice and got rolling until his ankle sent him crashing. After racking up 394 carries last year (including postseason), Turner's 178 in '09 seems like a vacation. It doesn't hurt Fantasy owners knowing that he's been "resting" since just before Christmas.
2010 Fantasy draft outlook: Turner is still entrenched as the starting running back and will see lots of work behind a very solid offensive line. While it's debatable whether or not he belongs in the Top 5 as he did in 2009, he's still an easy first-round choice.

Who are your bounce-back candidates for 2010? Drop us a line and tell us about them at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Bounce-backs in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.

Jets could cut Goodson
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
11:21 AM

News: ESPN reports that Jets general manager John Idzik has a decision to make on the future of running back Mike Goodson after Friday's arrest on drug and weapon charges. The report says Idzik cut two players arrested recently for possession of marijuana, Claude Davis and Cliff Harris. But that doesn't mean he will take the same approach with Goodson, whose contract includes a $1 million signing bonus. The bonus is divided into payouts, and the report says he has yet to receive the full amount; he has pocketed at least $500,000. If Idzik tries to send a message and decides to cut him before the legal process plays out, it would be harder to recoup the money, according to a source. He'll have a better chance if he waits for the courts (and the league) to rule on the matter.

Analysis: It sounds like Goodson's days with the Jets are numbered, but if the legal process comes down in his favor he could remain with the team. But based on the reports of his arrest and the new regime with the Jets, they could decide to part ways, especially since they still have Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight on the roster. Keep an eye on what develops, but don't plan on drafting Goodson in the majority of leagues.

Doctors confident in Gronk
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
10:42 AM

News: ESPN reports that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is scheduled to undergo the fourth surgery on his left forearm on Monday, should be OK. The report says doctors feel confident that the infection has been eradicated, but they won't know for sure until they take tests during the procedure and then examine those over the next week. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.

Analysis: We're glad to hear that Gronkowski should be OK after the forearm surgery, but he still has to deal with the upcoming procedure on his back, which should take place in 3-4 weeks. The goal is get Gronkowski back on the field for training camp, but he might not be ready until just before the start of the season. If Gronkowski is 100 percent with all his ailments then he has the chance to remain the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy with a pick in Round 2. But based on his health in May, he is dropping down the rank lists to more of a Top 5 Fantasy tight end. He's still worth drafting by Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, but his value has taken a hit with another forearm surgery and the potential back problem. Stay tuned, and hopefully we get more good news as the offseason moves on.

RG3 begins throwing
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
10:34 AM

News: The father for Robert Griffin III told USA Today his son has been throwing a football since late April. That suggests he's ahead of schedule and could be ready to play in Week 1 against the Eagles on Sept. 9. RG3 posted on Twitter he had been doing "a couple of roll out throws," meaning he's running and throwing at the same time. "Everybody in the organization is targeting that season opener," Robert Griffin II said.

Analysis: The father added that RG3 is a little ahead of himself in his rehab compared to when he tore his right ACL in college, another good sign. Griffin tore up his knee on January 6 and the typical recovery from just an ACL procedure is nine months. His knee was damaged beyond that -- he also injured his MCL and PCL. Training camp opens on July 25, less than seven months after he got hurt. The Redskins' first game takes place September 9, eight months and three days after he got hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back so soon. A Fantasy gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Gillislee has chance to start
Mike Gillislee, RB, MIA
10:25 AM

News: The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that Dolphins rookie Mike Gillislee, who ran for 1,152 yards and 10 touchdowns in his senior season at Florida, will compete with Lamar Miller, a 2012 fourth-round pick, and Daniel Thomas, a 2011 second-round pick, for the starting tailback spot during training camp this summer. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round this year.

Analysis: We'd be shocked if Gillislee was the starting running back this season, but he doesn't have to leap frog proven veterans. Miller is unproven after barely playing as a rookie, and Thomas has struggled in two years. Still, Miller is expected to start, and Gillislee has the chance to beat out Thomas for the No. 2 job. Keep an eye on what happens, and unless Gillislee somehow ascends to the top of the depth chart he is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in standard leagues. In rookie-only formats take a chance on Gillislee with a second-round pick.

Vick: New offense is 'a lot easier'
Michael Vick, QB, PHI
9:15 AM

News: In an interview with 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia, Michael Vick said his critics "know nothing about football" and preferred not to address issues about his play up to this point. That's because he's excited about the future, mainly working in Chip Kelly's new up-tempo no-huddle offense. Vick's working on ball security with Kelly, just one of several areas he has to clean up in order to efficiently play, which he's excited to do. "We had a lot of deeper throws last year, which required more time," Vick said. "It's just a big difference. Not to say there was anything wrong with the West Coast system, I loved it. I spent seven years in it, and it was cool. But I think the change of pace for me at this point in my career is good and the game is a lot easier now."

Analysis: If Vick likes the new offense and thinks it's easier to run, that can only mean good things for his statistics. There's still a camp battle to be had with Nick Foles and rookie Matt Barkley but we expect Vick to get the job. How long he has it is another question since he has a propensity for getting hurt. Vick is one of the appealing No. 2 Fantasy QBs to draft with a mid-round pick this summer, particularly to pair up with a starter you end up waiting for on Draft Day.

Schiano: Freeman will compete
Josh Freeman, QB, TB
12:39 PM

News: As much as Bucs coach Greg Schiano says Josh Freeman is the team's starting quarterback, he won't fully commit to him. Schiano told the National Football Post Glennon wouldn't play "unless he was needed or if he wins the job" and followed that up Monday by saying Freeman was his starting quarterback "but I believe in competition." Glennon was once recruited by Schiano while he coached at Rutgers but chose an ACC school over Schiano's Big East school.

Analysis: It's clear that Schiano likes Glennon -- and has for some time. It's also clear that Freeman will have to have a good camp in order to begin the year as the Bucs' starter. What makes Freeman a slight risk in Fantasy is if he gets off to a cold start or struggles mid-season then Schiano could pull him for Glennon without much patience. Freeman has fantastic potential given the offense around him but must be drafted as a No. 2 quarterback with a late-round pick.

McGahee not present at OTAs
Willis McGahee, RB, DEN
12:27 PM

News: The Denver Post reports Broncos running back Willis McGahee is not expected to attend Monday's OTA workout. The voluntary session means he could practice away from the team. McGahee was present for Broncos OTA workouts last year. His agent told the paper that he'll attend. "He's following the same routine he's done his whole career. He'll be there," agent Chafie Fields said. "He's ready to compete. No messages."

Analysis: McGahee is assumed to be headed toward a limited role in Denver with rookie Montee Ball added in the draft. Broncos exec John Elway referred to McGahee as "that big back for us right now" about a month ago. Landing a lot of carries will be a challenge for him as he not only deals with a younger back who could supplant him but also coming back from a broken leg and torn MCL. While Ball is drawing plenty of attention in Fantasy, McGahee has turned into a late-round depth-filler with very limited potential.

Moreno to fight for job
Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
11:56 AM

News: The Denver Post reports Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno should be ready for offseason workouts this week after suffering a knee injury in the playoff loss to Baltimore. Moreno could be fighting for his roster spot with Willis McGahee after the Broncos drafted Montee Ball. The report says "there isn't much doubt" the Broncos want Ball and Ronnie Hillman be their 1-2 running punch.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Moreno and McGahee heading into training camp, and hopefully the Broncos make it easier on owners to know who will make the final team. If Moreno is still with Denver once the season starts we expect him to provide a veteran presence behind Ball and Hillman but get little work. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Bush in line for big year
Reggie Bush, RB, DET
11:40 AM

News: According to mlive.com, Reggie Bush could be in line for a breakout season. The report says Bush was a solid contributor in Miami, but Detroit's offense is built for his skill set. Bush will play in an offense similar to the one he excelled in during his standout years in New Orleans. He also will not have to worry about competing for playing time, which occurred during the end of his career with the Saints. The report ends with this line: "Detroit has so many weapons, Bush will rarely see stacked boxes, which might make him, and those who own him in Fantasy Football, very happy."

Analysis: We agree with this report that Bush should have a good season with the Lions. He is expected to start ahead of Mikel Leshoure, and coach Jim Schwartz said Bush could be in line for as many as 80 catches. We consider Bush a solid No. 2 Fantasy running back in standard leagues with the chance to be a No. 1 option in PPR formats. He's worth drafting as early as Round 3 in standard leagues.

Bears release Fluellen
Andre Fluellen, DT, CHI
12:41 PM

News: The Bears have released veteran defensive lineman Andre Fluellen.

Analysis: Fluellen will attempt to add depth somewhere else this offseason. He's not going to help you win a Fantasy title.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings