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Faceoffs: Thoughts on Marshall, Big Ben and Santonio

Jamey Eisenberg
Senior Fantasy Writer
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Editor's note: Senior Fantasy Writers Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg agree on most things, but several factors stemming from two blockbuster trades involving Santonio Holmes and Brandon Marshall have the guys not seeing eye-to-eye. Is Ben Roethlisberger still a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback without Santonio Holmes? Is Holmes' new quarterback, Mark Sanchez, better or worse than Miami's Chad Henne now that Henne has Marshall in his corner? And where does Marshall rank among the Fantasy receivers? The fellas weigh in.

Did Brandon Marshall gain or lose Fantasy value by going to Miami?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard I've felt for a long time that Marshall is an elite talent. I defy you to find significant differences in his game and the likes of Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne as far as on-the-field ability goes. I couldn't care less about him being a loose cannon off the field -- I don't lose Fantasy points for that. What I do care about is a receiver who has put together three consecutive 100-plus catch seasons with a young and trigger-happy Jay Cutler under center for two years and lesser-armed Kyle Orton for one year. Sure, the change of scenery and change of offensive theory might scare some Fantasy owners, but the Dolphins didn't add Marshall to block for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. They'll have to justify giving the Broncos two second-round picks and giving Marshall a contract extension, so that will mean a lot of work for Marshall. Simply put, he's too talented a player with a team that must utilize him if they hope to compete in the AFC East. He's easily a Top 10 Fantasy receiver, if not a Top 5. Jamey Eisenberg I love the Dolphins trade to get Marshall because it addresses a position of need and makes Chad Henne a much better quarterback. But Marshall loses value leaving Denver for Miami. The Dolphins offense is not going to allow Marshall to catch 102 passes for 1,237 yards and eight touchdowns, which is what he averaged the past three years. Miami is a run-first team, and keep in mind the Dolphins often line up Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams at quarterback in the Wildcat package. No Dolphins receiver caught more than three touchdowns last year, and none had more than 800 yards. Marshall will definitely eclipse those marks and remain an elite Fantasy option, but his stats will take a hit with this transaction. And let's not forget that Marshall also could be useless for two games when he lines up against Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis -- even though those matchups will be fun to watch. Marshall told me in February he was "going for the throne" as the No. 1 wide receiver in 2010, but I don't see that happening now that he's with the Dolphins. He'll be lucky to finish as a Top 10 option after this trade.
Barring a suspension, is Ben Roethlisberger a starting Fantasy quarterback?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard I admitted in my blog this week that Jamey was right about the Steelers -- signs point to them getting back to their run-the-ball ways. But I don't think they'll totally go backward, meaning that Roethlisberger will have chances to put up solid stats. Before last season the Steelers seemed to lean on the run outside of the 20-yard line and then throw the ball in the red zone. I could see them doing something like that again in 2010. I also could see them making good use of Mike Wallace, who excelled last season as a deep-ball receiver and was one of two huge surprises. Even without Holmes, the Steelers have enough weapons around Roethlisberger to keep his numbers solid, and I'm not ruling out the idea of them drafting another receiver. Finally, Roethlisberger will be plenty motivated to play well and silence his critics after another tumultuous offseason. He faced these same critics last offseason and did subsequently very well. Expect it again -- he's a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. Jamey Eisenberg Roethlisberger is still going to have his moments as a starting Fantasy quarterback this year, but he's not a No. 1 option anymore. Not with the Steelers missing the playoffs last year. Not with Santonio Holmes no longer in Pittsburgh. And not with Roethlisberger having all these problems off the field, which is cutting into his preparation time. Roethlisberger has two years with 20 or more touchdowns, which was last season and 2007. In four other years he's averaged 17 touchdowns, and the Steelers are typically more successful when they aren't throwing the ball all over the place. The Steelers will return to their identity of running the ball, and that makes Rashard Mendenhall an elite Fantasy running back this year. As for Roethlisberger, his stats will take a hit, and you should view him as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. I would rather take my chances with the upside of Kevin Kolb or even the motivated Donovan McNabb. They both have a better outlook than Roethlisberger.
Who is the better No. 2 Fantasy quarterback: Chad Henne or Mark Sanchez?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard If Kyle Orton can have a career year (3,802 yards, 21 touchdowns) with Marshall, then surely Henne can be expected to do well. Look, in order for a quarterback to post great stats he must have quality players around him. I've already talked about Marshall's ability, and Henne will be the only passer in the league to take advantage of him in the lineup. Both Henne and Sanchez have great O-lines and great running games to complement them, but Henne has the stronger arm. And while the Dolphins' offense hasn't been pass-oriented before, it doesn't mean they won't be: Offensive coordinator Dan Henning has helped produce career-best numbers for Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, and also was responsible for excellent seasons for guys ranging from Keyshawn Johnson and Ricky Sanders to Anthony Miller and Quinn Early. Does Henning utilize the run? History has shown that he definitely does, but history also proves that he's versatile enough to take advantage of his great receivers. I'd think Marshall qualifies, and that should mean good things for Henne, who is a terrific sleeper and solid No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. Jamey Eisenberg Henne and Sanchez have a similar outlook this year. Both are No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks who got significant upgrades in their receiving corps, but both also play on run-first teams. And even though Marshall is the best receiver for either team, Sanchez has more talent around him. You'd rather have the quarterback throwing the ball to Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller than the one throwing to Marshall, Davone Bess, Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Fasano. Let's face it, neither quarterback is expected to become a starting Fantasy option this year, but if you're looking for who has more upside with a late-round pick, it's Sanchez. At least he doesn't have to face Revis for two games, and that could be enough of a deciding factor to take Sanchez over Henne. The one thing we can all agree on is both of these quarterbacks are better off than Kyle Orton. Poor guy has to deal with Brady Quinn and loses Marshall. Talk about a bad offseason.
Who is the better No. 3 Fantasy receiver: Santonio Holmes or Mike Wallace?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard I like Mike Wallace but I like him better as a slot receiver who doesn't draw much coverage because Santonio Holmes is streaking down the other side of the field. That scenario from 2009 is history and now it's expected that Wallace will step into Holmes' role as the split end in the Steelers' offense. That's going to mean more receptions than the 39 he had last season but it also means increased coverage and thus fewer yards per catch than the 19.6 he had a year ago. Holmes, meanwhile, moves to being the most appealing option for Mark Sanchez whereas he wasn't always as attractive in Pittsburgh. He's a lot like Wallace in that he can make plays deep but he's got an edge on the second-year receiver as far as doing the short and intermediate work. Neither guy will set the world on fire, but I'll take Holmes' experience and leading role in the Jets' offense over Wallace adjusting to being an every-down player in his second season. Jamey Eisenberg Wallace steps into the starting role vacated by Holmes, and he should see a significant portion of the 138 targets Holmes had last year even with the Steelers throwing the ball less. Wallace, who had one more touchdown than Holmes last year, led the NFL with 19.4 yards per catch, and his speed will complement Hines Ward and Heath Miller running underneath routes. Holmes will miss four games to start the season for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy and will share the field with Edwards, Cotchery and Keller upon his return. I'd rather have Wallace for 16 games than Holmes for 12 with the way each offense is going to look. Again, both teams plan to run the ball as much as possible, but the Steelers are definitely more pass-oriented than the Jets. That will favor Wallace, who gets a significant boost in value following Holmes being traded to New York.

Do you agree with Dave or Jamey? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Faceoff in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

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Player News
Rob Gronkowski
First Gronk's arm, now his back?!
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/17/2013
News: On the same day NFL Network reported Rob Gronkowski had a Monday, May 20 date set for his fourth surgery related to his left forearm, USA Today reports the tight end's back is "acting up" and might require surgery after undergoing an MRI for a disc issue. The report said this disc is different than the one that needed to be shaved down in a 2009 surgical procedure, forcing Gronk to miss that year of football while enrolled at Arizona. ESPN reports the back issue is considered minor and his long-term prognosis is good. Gronkowski will see noted spine specialist Dr. Robert Watkins after his forearm surgery, which will replace a metal plate in his forearm. If Gronkowski needs back surgery the hope is that he can heal from that and his arm at the same time and be ready before the start of the season. Also, it bears repeating that a fifth arm surgery is still possible if there's an infection in his arm though ProFootballTalk.com reports doctors are confident that won't be the case.
Analysis: Before you hyperventilate and scratch Gronk off your rank lists, remember that it's only mid-May and there is still time to see how he heals up from whichever surgeries he ends up having. It goes without saying that his Fantasy draft stock will be affected negatively if he has all the procedures and isn't ready for training camp or preseason games. Count on us to keep you posted on the latest news on Gronkowski between now and when the season starts.

EJ Manuel
Manuel could start Week 1
EJ Manuel, QB, BUF
5/17/2013
News: The Bills official team website reports that new general manager Doug Whaley was asked in an appearance on the NFL Network about the chances of rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel being ready to start Week 1 of the regular season. Whaley didn’t rule out the possibility. “Time will tell,” said Whaley. ”He does have the work ethic and the leadership qualities that he’ll have a chance. But we believe competition brings out the best in everybody. Between him, Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson, even Jeff Tuel, we’re excited to see who comes out on top of that position battle.” Buffalo’s season opener is a home game against New England.
Analysis: We'd like to see Manuel start from Week 1 because he presents the most upside of the quarterback group in Buffalo. Keep an eye on Manuel's progress this offseason, and he has the chance to be a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. In rookie-only drafts, Manuel should be considered a Top 15 overall selection.

Mike Goodson
Goodson arrested Friday
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/17/2013
News: Jets running back Mike Goodson was arrested on drug and weapon charges early on Friday morning, reports News 12 in New Jersey. According to the report, Goodson and another man were found intoxicated in a parked SUV along Route 80 in Denville, New Jersey, which is about 15 miles northwest of the Jets' headquarters in Florham Park. A loaded .45-caliber handgun with hollow-point bullets was found in the SUV and when the 25-year-old running back was transported to a hospital for evaluation, marijuana was discovered in his possession. The Jets signed Goodson to a three-year, $6 million contract on March 15 to compete for a starting job this season. Goodson's deal with the Jets included a $1.93 million guaranteed. CBSSports.com blogger Will Brinson researched that illegal possession of hollow point bullets is a "crime of the fourth degree" in New Jersey, which appears to be among the states with the strictest laws regarding the ammunition.
Analysis: Goodson could be headed to prison, not to mention an NFL suspension, if found guilty of this crime. Before this incident we expected him to be No. 2 on the depth chart behind Chris Ivory. Now there's no telling just how far he'll fall. For the time being there's no reason to spend anything more than a late-round flier on Goodson since his playing time was going to be fairly limited to begin with.

Bruce Irvin
Irvin suspended four games
Bruce Irvin, LB, SEA
5/17/2013
News: Seattle defensive end Bruce Irvin has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2013 regular season for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances, the team reported Friday. Irvin will be eligible to return to the Seahawks' active roster on Monday, Sept. 30 following the team's Sept. 29 game against the Texans. Irvin is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games. "I want to apologize to my teammates, coaches and Seahawks fans for making a mistake when I took a substance that is prohibited in the NFL without a medical exemption," Irvin said in a statement. "I am extremely disappointed in the poor judgment I showed and take full responsibility for my actions. I will not appeal the discipline and instead will focus my energy on preparing for the season so I can begin earning your trust and respect again. I look forward to contributing to the team the moment I return."
Analysis: Irvin had a solid year in 2012 with eight sacks. He didn't provide much else with only 16 total tackles and one fumble recovery, but he now will miss the first four games of the season. He is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in IDP leagues.

Josh Cribbs
Cribbs still not healthy
Josh Cribbs, WR, OAK
5/17/2013
News: The Raiders official team website reports that newly signed receiver Josh Cribbs hopes to have a role on offense as much as just being a return man. "Definitely. I feel like it’s a definite possibility for competition at that position," Cribbs said. "At this point, my job is to come in and be a special teams' guru to help solidify our special teams unit in the NFL and to raise our goals and our standards. If we do that, we will become an elite unit." Cribbs also addressed the health of his knee. "I’m doing well," Cribbs said. "If we were lining up to play football in June then it would be a hot topic. I will be ready to play football when it’s time to play football, and I think that is the important thing."
Analysis: It sounds like Cribbs is still dealing with his knee issue, but he should be ready for the start of training camp. He also could see time at receiver, but he'll have to prove himself first. He's not worth drafting in standard leagues, but he could be worth a late-round flier in leagues where you get points for return yardage.

Matt Ryan
Ryan speaks on O-line
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Falcons
Ryan speaks on O-line
Falcons, TQB ATL,
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Kendall Wright
Wright in better shape
Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
5/17/2013
News: The Titans official website reports that receiver Kendall Wright has never felt better physically. “I’m in the best shape I’ve ever been,” Wright said. The second-year receiver is tipping the scales around 187 pounds, approximately 14 pounds lighter than when he arrived last year. Wright attributed part of the transformation to workouts at Baylor after his rookie campaign ended. A bigger difference maker, however, may have been his routes through grocery stores that passed by junk food. “For the most part, it wasn’t about the running,” Wright said. “I just started taking care of my body and eating right. I wasn’t eating right at all. I was eating a lot of junk food because that’s what I like and that’s what I’d buy, but I cut down on that and just started eating right. When you don’t buy it, you’re not going to eat it, so I just stopped buying it.”
Analysis: Wright finished his rookie season with 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He enters this season with the chance to start for the Titans, and we like him as a key reserve receiver with upside. Plan on drafting Wright with a mid-round pick.

Thomas Keiser
Keiser rumbles to Bolts
Thomas Keiser, LB, CAR
5/17/2013
News: Days after his release from the Panthers, the Chargers have signed linebacker Thomas Keiser.
Analysis: Keiser played in four games last year before landing on IR with an elbow injury. He'll try and help replace Melvin Ingram in the team's pass rush. He's unlikely to be a relevant Fantasy option.

Brian Hoyer
Browns ink QB Hoyer
Brian Hoyer, QB, ARI
5/17/2013
News: The Browns have signed quarterback Brian Hoyer, according to multiple reports.
Analysis: Hoyer is a dark horse candidate to start for the Browns and probably has a better chance to be their backup. He'll start camp behind Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell on the depth chart. Only Hoyer's relatives will draft him in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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