Rookies to target and avoid on Draft Day 2010
By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow JameyFollow CBS Fantasy Football
The best thing about the NFL Draft is the opportunity it creates. New players enter the league, and we have more options for our Fantasy teams.
Just go back to last year when Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Percy Harvin and Austin Collie were among several rookies starting for Fantasy owners. The year before it was Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal. It will be the same this season.
Not every rookie will make an impact right away, but we've highlighted some first-year players we like following the draft. We also have some rookies listed here who are talented, but they didn't end up with the right team, which will hurt their Fantasy value.
A lot can still change between now and the start of training camp, but these are some rookies to keep in mind for the other Draft Day later on this summer.
Five to target
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego
Mathews is one of several rookie running backs who could play well this season, including Ben Tate (Houston), Jahvid Best (Detroit) and Montario Hardesty (Cleveland). But Mathews should be the best rookie running back based on his opportunity. He is going to replace the departed LaDainian Tomlinson, who was released in February, and Chargers coach Norv Turner already knows how he plans to use Mathews in tandem with Darren Sproles. "I would expect Ryan to have 250 carries and 40 catches, something like that," Turner said in the San Diego Union-Tribune. "That's obviously saying Darren is going to have the same role he's had." Sproles doesn't lose value even with the Chargers drafting Mathews at No. 12 overall from Fresno State, but Mathews, who led the country with 150.7 yards per game and scored 19 touchdowns last year, should be a star. He is worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy option as early as Round 5.
Ben Tate, RB, Houston
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| Ben Tate will be competing with Steve Slaton for carries in Houston. (US Presswire) |
Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit
The Lions traded up to draft Best at No. 30 overall from Cal, and he has the chance to start right away with Kevin Smith coming off a torn ACL from last season. If Smith isn't ready by training camp then Best could be the starter for Week 1. Best, who ran for 2,668 yards, caught 62 passes and scored 35 total touchdowns in college, is hoping to prove he should have been a higher selection. His status was likely affected by a history of concussions, but he said he's fine. Once Smith returns, the two will likely share carries, but Best should still see plenty of touches. Go into the season with Best as a No. 3 Fantasy running back worth a mid-round pick with the chance to be a No. 2 option early in the year if Smith is out. Smith remains a No. 3 Fantasy option also, but his value will be determined by his health.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver
Rookie wide receivers don't always make an impact for Fantasy owners, but this year's class has some talented players who will get a chance to play right away. Along with Thomas there is Arrelious Benn (Tampa Bay), Golden Tate (Seattle), Brandon LaFell (Carolina) and Mardy Gilyard (St. Louis) as the Top 5 rookie receivers to target on Draft Day. Thomas will replace Brandon Marshall in Denver, Benn could be the No. 1 receiver in Tampa Bay, Tate has the chance to start opposite T.J. Houshmandzadeh, LaFell has the chance to start opposite Steve Smith and Gilyard helps an anemic receiving corps for the Rams. Another receiver who could make an impact is Dexter McCluster, who will make the transition from running back. He has upside, but he should only be considered with a late-round pick. Thomas was the first wide receiver drafted, but Benn might be the best Fantasy receiver this year.
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Carolina
Two quarterbacks have a chance to start right away this season, and that's Clausen and Sam Bradford. We know the Rams won't wait long to get Bradford on the field after drafting him at No. 1 overall, but Clausen only has to beat out the inexperienced Matt Moore. Even though Clausen fell to Round 2, he landed in a good spot with the Panthers. He is a great quarterback to target in rookie only leagues and keeper formats because he has plenty of talent around him with Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. If LaFell turns into a quality No. 2 receiver then Clausen could end up as a solid Fantasy quarterback. He might not help you much this year, but Clausen has potential in the future. As for Bradford, the addition of Gilyard in Round 4 will help the Rams, but Bradford could be running for his life behind this offensive line.
Five to avoid
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo
The Bills needed help at quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver. They didn't need a running back even if Spiller has the chance to be the next Chris Johnson. He isn't going to do it in Buffalo, and what happens now with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch? Spiller doesn't have a line to run behind or a quarterback to get him the ball. The Bills didn't draft an offensive lineman (Ed Wang) until Round 5 or a quarterback (Levi Brown) until Round 7, and both players will struggle to make the final roster. Spiller would have been better on a team like Jacksonville, Seattle or San Francisco, where he could work in tandem with an established runner or get the chance to start. The Bills could still trade Lynch, which will help Spiller's value, but he won't be in line to help many Fantasy teams this year.
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas
The Cowboys made a great move to trade up to No. 24 and draft Bryant out of Oklahoma State. His so-called off-the-field troubles won't be a problem in the NFL, and the Cowboys now have another weapon for Tony Romo, which only improves his Fantasy value this year. But Bryant won't be as good as he could have been if he went to Denver or another team in need of a wide receiver. Bryant will now be behind Miles Austin and Jason Witten in terms of targets, and Roy E. Williams will also probably still start ahead of Bryant. That lowers his Fantasy value as a rookie. Heading into 2011, it's unlikely Williams will remain in Dallas, and Bryant could be a star in his second year. But you should go into this season with Bryant as a No. 4 Fantasy wide receiver at best.
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati
Since Carson Palmer became the starting quarterback for the Bengals in 2004, tight end hasn't exactly been the priority of the passing game. He has mostly thrown to the likes of Reggie Kelly, Matt Schobel and J.P Foschi, but Palmer's starting tight end has never caught more than two touchdowns in a season. Last year, the Bengals appeared to address tight end in the NFL Draft by getting Chase Coffman from Missouri in the third round. He didn't work out, and don't expect Gresham to make an impact on Fantasy rosters either. The Bengals like their tight ends to block, and Gresham is better suited as a receiver. Look for the Bengals to get more production out of receiver Jordan Shipley, who was drafted in Round 3 and will excel playing in the slot. If you want a better rookie tight end, keep an eye on who does better for New England between Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, because one of them will start for the Patriots this year.
Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota
Gerhart will get the chance for carries in Minnesota playing behind Adrian Peterson, but he should only be drafted in seasonal leagues as a handcuff option in case Peterson gets hurt. Gerhart could have been a solid Fantasy option this year if he went to Houston instead of Ben Tate. It's obvious the Texans liked Tate better, but Gerhart was in consideration there before the Vikings traded up to get him. He could steal a few touchdowns from Peterson based on his size (6-foot, 231 pounds), but really Gerhart is looking at six carries per game on average, which is what Chester Taylor had last year as Peterson's backup. Taylor also had only one rushing touchdown, so don't plan on drafting Gerhart in the majority of leagues. He also has minimal Fantasy value in keeper leagues since Peterson isn't going anywhere any time soon.
Tim Tebow, QB, Denver
Tebow has a long way to go before he can be considered a good Fantasy option. He might get a few carries this season in the Wildcat, but he's not going to attempt enough passes to help your Fantasy team. And the same could be said for 2011 since Tebow might not be ready to start until 2012. He was better suited going to a team where he could sit for a couple of years and learn from a quality veteran like in New England or Green Bay. In Denver, Tebow might be pressed into action before he's ready, and that could ruin his career. He is worth drafting in deep dynasty leagues, but that's about it. There's little chance you're going to have him on your roster in seasonal leagues, and the Broncos need to develop weapons with Marshall and Tony Scheffler now gone. Tebow might have potential down the road, but that's not something Fantasy owners should worry about this year.
Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put 2010 Rookies in the subject field. You can also follow Jamey via Twitter at @jameyeisenberg.
