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2010 Fantasy outlooks: Pittsburgh Steelers

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
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When Ben Roethlisberger was suspended by the NFL for his role in an off-field incident this offseason, it sent the expectations for the Steelers' offense into flux.

How confusing is it? The amount of games Roethlisberger will be gone for hasn't even been determined yet; Commissioner Roger Goodell initially made the suspension six games but said he'd consider cutting the punishment if Roethlisberger kept his nose clean -- or extend it if Roethlisberger doesn't.

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We're going with the expectation that Roethlisberger will have his suspension reduced to four games, but that still keeps him out of action until Week 6 as the Steelers are on bye in Week 5. As such, no one can draft him to be their Fantasy starter -- but everyone should get in on him as an elite No. 2 quarterback, especially since 10 of the consensus Top 14 Fantasy quarterbacks have byes in Week 6 or later.

But Roethlisberger isn't the only Steel City bad boy -- Santonio Holmes was traded to the Jets after various off-field incidents, leaving some unanswered questions at the position. Last season they were impossible to cover with Holmes stretching defenses and requiring constant supervision. With him gone, the Steelers will ask for more from their receiving corps, which will have to find a way to produce with Byron Leftwich likely under center for their first four games in place of Roethlisberger.

It's a good thing the defense is in good shape -- literally. Defensive end Aaron Smith and safety Troy Polamalu practiced this offseason and appear to be healthy following season-ending injuries last year. Additionally, the defense hung on to free safety Ryan Clark, brought back cornerback Bryant McFadden and added lots of depth at linebacker through the draft, so they're set to be punishing in 2010 after finishing last year with a whimper.

The Steelers will need them -- especially for those first four games.

Keeper-league target ... Jonathan Dwyer, RB

This isn't an indictment on starter Rashard Mendenhall at all, but the Steelers have been blown away by the rookie. Dwyer gives the team a physical alternative to Mendenhall -- something they didn't have last season -- not to mention a guy who could fill in for Mewelde Moore on long third downs in case something happens to him. But we were most surprised when head coach Mike Tomlin spoke of considering Dwyer for short-yardage duty, which would give him instant Fantasy cred. It would also hurt Mendenhall. The preseason might determine just how much time Dwyer gets on the field, but the good-speed back from run-heavy Georgia Tech is light years better than his sixth-round NFL Draft status suggests. At the very least, he's worth keeping an eye on if you're in a dynasty or keeper league.

Breakout ... Mike Wallace, WR

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger
Byron Leftwich
Running Backs
Rashard Mendenhall
Jonathan Dwyer
Mewelde Moore
Wide Receivers
Hines Ward
Mike Wallace
Emmanuel Sanders
Tight Ends
Heath Miller
Kicker/DST
Jeff Reed
Steelers DST

Wallace is a classic case of talent meeting opportunity. With Holmes jetting off to New York, Wallace will be asked to fill his role and play much more often than he did last season. Wallace did a lot of damage last season -- 756 yards and six scores -- on just 39 catches. His ascension with the Steelers proves that he understands the NFL game and should accelerate his learning curve to absorb what it takes to start and play close to 60 snaps per game. Defenses will have to continue to respect his deep speed, and if Wallace is going to take the next step in his career he'll make them pay for it on comeback, sideline and across-the-middle routes. While his 19.4 yards per catch average is sure to drop and while his numbers coming out of the gate might be a little thin because of playing without Roethlisberger, Wallace is still a candidate to improve on his stats and be a very effective Fantasy receiver. He's as solid as they come as a No. 3 option worth a pick after the Top 30 or so wideouts are off the board.

Bust ... Heath Miller, TE

Two things are working against Miller: The state of the Steelers' passing game and his role in it, and the growing number of top tight ends around the league. Miller enjoyed the best year of his career in 2009 with 76 catches for 789 yards and six scores, but toward the end of the season he saw some inconsistencies in his production compared to the first half of the season as the Steelers got back to running the ball and leaning on their deep-ball game. Miller should still be involved in the offense, but we'd be surprised to see him match the totals he had in '09. Furthermore, there are too many other solid Fantasy options at tight end to ignore. We see him as a tight end owners will "settle" for on Draft Day, not target.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
ATL @TEN @TB BAL bye CLE @MIA @NO @CIN NE OAK @BUF @BAL CIN NYJ CAR @CLE

Let's first look at the Steelers' four-game opening schedule, when they'll be without Roethlisberger. Of their first four opponents, only the Ravens boast a tough pass rush and a good secondary; the rest won't totally hamper the Steelers offense. Best of all, Mendenhall should do a good job against the first three defenses.

Following the bye, Pittsburgh travels for three straight weeks and stays at home for three straight weeks with a three-week span of night games overlapping two-thirds of the road schedule. It's not all bad for them when they get Roethlisberger back, though their second-half schedule isn't exactly a party.

Training camp topics

2009 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Rashard Mendenhall 267
Willie Parker 104
Hines Ward 95
Santonio Holmes 82
Heath Miller 76
Mewelde Moore 56
Mike Wallace 44

Roethlisberger's suspension will overshadow everything in Pittsburgh, but there will be eyeballs on the Steelers' offensive line following the season-ending injury to right tackle Willie Colon. The drafting of interior lineman Maurkice Pouncey will give them some flexibility, but this front five is nowhere near as deep and talented as others around the league, and it could end up being a huge detriment for the Steelers.

There's also the consideration of how Roethlisberger's status will impact steady receiver Hines Ward. His yards per game average has actually gone up over the last three seasons (which is in line with the Steelers' move to passing more than running), and he's racked up either six or seven scores each of the last four seasons. But Ward's best seasons came when he played opposite either Plaxico Burress or Holmes. Getting a quality split end to take some pressure off of him has been a key to his success, so while Wallace will still draw coverage, he'll have to prove he's explosive right out of the gate in order for Ward to overcome some potential hardships. But don't get hung up on Ward because he's old or not as fast as he once was -- he's only 34 and only dealt with minor hamstring strains during offseason practices. He's still a fairly reliable No. 2 Fantasy receiver, albeit one you won't go into drafts hoping to land.

The player(s) who might end up being linchpins for the Steelers' offense are Antwaan Randle El and rookie Emmanuel Sanders. Essentially, if the offense is going to operate as proficiently as it did last season, one or both of these receivers need to step up and at least warrant some coverage. In the case of Sanders, who is sort of a Wallace clone, his progression is especially important if he can help stretch defenses and make life easier for the other receivers -- precisely what Wallace's role was in 2009.

Injury update

Limas Sweed (Achilles'; out for the season) ... Hines Ward (hamstring; probable for the start of training camp) ... Aaron Smith (shoulder; probable for the start of training camp) ... Troy Polamalu (knee; probable for the start of training camp).

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

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Player News
Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski slated for fourth surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/19/2013
News: New England tight end Rob Gronkowski will undergo a fourth surgery on his left forearm Monday at Massachusetts General Hospital, the Boston Herald reports Sunday. Dr. Jesse Jupiter is expected to perform the surgery. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.
Analysis: The doctors will take a culture from Gronk's arm and if it shows the infection has lingered, it could be "back to square one," for the tight end. He could miss regular season games if that happens so Fantasy owners will want to watch out. It goes without saying that his Fantasy draft stock will be affected negatively if he has all the procedures and isn't ready for training camp or preseason games. Count on us to keep you posted on the latest news on Gronkowski between now and when the season starts.

Dwight Freeney
Freeney signs with Chargers
Dwight Freeney, DE, IND
5/19/2013
News: The Chargers have signed linebacker Dwight Freeney to a two-year contract, NFL.com reports.
Analysis: The 33-year-old Freeney had 12 tackles and five sacks last year for the Colts. The Chargers needed a pass rusher and this was a good fit. Still, we're not sure he'll carry much Fantasy value in IDP formats.

EJ Manuel
Manuel could start Week 1
EJ Manuel, QB, BUF
5/17/2013
News: The Bills official team website reports that new general manager Doug Whaley was asked in an appearance on the NFL Network about the chances of rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel being ready to start Week 1 of the regular season. Whaley didn’t rule out the possibility. “Time will tell,” said Whaley. ”He does have the work ethic and the leadership qualities that he’ll have a chance. But we believe competition brings out the best in everybody. Between him, Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson, even Jeff Tuel, we’re excited to see who comes out on top of that position battle.” Buffalo’s season opener is a home game against New England.
Analysis: We'd like to see Manuel start from Week 1 because he presents the most upside of the quarterback group in Buffalo. Keep an eye on Manuel's progress this offseason, and he has the chance to be a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. In rookie-only drafts, Manuel should be considered a Top 15 overall selection.

Mike Goodson
Goodson arrested Friday
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/17/2013
News: Jets running back Mike Goodson was arrested on drug and weapon charges early on Friday morning, reports News 12 in New Jersey. According to the report, Goodson and another man were found intoxicated in a parked SUV along Route 80 in Denville, New Jersey, which is about 15 miles northwest of the Jets' headquarters in Florham Park. A loaded .45-caliber handgun with hollow-point bullets was found in the SUV and when the 25-year-old running back was transported to a hospital for evaluation, marijuana was discovered in his possession. The Jets signed Goodson to a three-year, $6 million contract on March 15 to compete for a starting job this season. Goodson's deal with the Jets included a $1.93 million guaranteed. CBSSports.com blogger Will Brinson researched that illegal possession of hollow point bullets is a "crime of the fourth degree" in New Jersey, which appears to be among the states with the strictest laws regarding the ammunition.
Analysis: Goodson could be headed to prison, not to mention an NFL suspension, if found guilty of this crime. Before this incident we expected him to be No. 2 on the depth chart behind Chris Ivory. Now there's no telling just how far he'll fall. For the time being there's no reason to spend anything more than a late-round flier on Goodson since his playing time was going to be fairly limited to begin with.

Bruce Irvin
Irvin suspended four games
Bruce Irvin, LB, SEA
5/17/2013
News: Seattle defensive end Bruce Irvin has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2013 regular season for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances, the team reported Friday. Irvin will be eligible to return to the Seahawks' active roster on Monday, Sept. 30 following the team's Sept. 29 game against the Texans. Irvin is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games. "I want to apologize to my teammates, coaches and Seahawks fans for making a mistake when I took a substance that is prohibited in the NFL without a medical exemption," Irvin said in a statement. "I am extremely disappointed in the poor judgment I showed and take full responsibility for my actions. I will not appeal the discipline and instead will focus my energy on preparing for the season so I can begin earning your trust and respect again. I look forward to contributing to the team the moment I return."
Analysis: Irvin had a solid year in 2012 with eight sacks. He didn't provide much else with only 16 total tackles and one fumble recovery, but he now will miss the first four games of the season. He is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in IDP leagues.

Josh Cribbs
Cribbs still not healthy
Josh Cribbs, WR, OAK
5/17/2013
News: The Raiders official team website reports that newly signed receiver Josh Cribbs hopes to have a role on offense as much as just being a return man. "Definitely. I feel like it’s a definite possibility for competition at that position," Cribbs said. "At this point, my job is to come in and be a special teams' guru to help solidify our special teams unit in the NFL and to raise our goals and our standards. If we do that, we will become an elite unit." Cribbs also addressed the health of his knee. "I’m doing well," Cribbs said. "If we were lining up to play football in June then it would be a hot topic. I will be ready to play football when it’s time to play football, and I think that is the important thing."
Analysis: It sounds like Cribbs is still dealing with his knee issue, but he should be ready for the start of training camp. He also could see time at receiver, but he'll have to prove himself first. He's not worth drafting in standard leagues, but he could be worth a late-round flier in leagues where you get points for return yardage.

Matt Ryan
Ryan speaks on O-line
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Falcons
Ryan speaks on O-line
Falcons, TQB ATL,
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Kendall Wright
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Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
5/17/2013
News: The Titans official website reports that receiver Kendall Wright has never felt better physically. “I’m in the best shape I’ve ever been,” Wright said. The second-year receiver is tipping the scales around 187 pounds, approximately 14 pounds lighter than when he arrived last year. Wright attributed part of the transformation to workouts at Baylor after his rookie campaign ended. A bigger difference maker, however, may have been his routes through grocery stores that passed by junk food. “For the most part, it wasn’t about the running,” Wright said. “I just started taking care of my body and eating right. I wasn’t eating right at all. I was eating a lot of junk food because that’s what I like and that’s what I’d buy, but I cut down on that and just started eating right. When you don’t buy it, you’re not going to eat it, so I just stopped buying it.”
Analysis: Wright finished his rookie season with 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He enters this season with the chance to start for the Titans, and we like him as a key reserve receiver with upside. Plan on drafting Wright with a mid-round pick.

Thomas Keiser
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Thomas Keiser, LB, SD
5/17/2013
News: Days after his release from the Panthers, the Chargers have signed linebacker Thomas Keiser.
Analysis: Keiser played in four games last year before landing on IR with an elbow injury. He'll try and help replace Melvin Ingram in the team's pass rush. He's unlikely to be a relevant Fantasy option.

 
 
 
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