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2010 Fantasy outlooks: Green Bay Packers

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
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The Packers' 2009 season ended about as strangely as you could imagine -- a ball coming out of the hands of Aaron Rodgers bouncing off his foot and into the arms of a Cardinals defender for a game-winning touchdown in the postseason.

But considering the way the team was looking before the start of the season, it's a finish Packers fans should be happy with.

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And now expectations are sky-high. Aaron Rodgers progressed to an elite level last year thanks to an incredible offense with quality receivers, tight ends and running backs (not to mention an underrated offensive line). Ryan Grant is healthy entering the 2010 season, and the defense is back after going from a transitioning 3-4 scheme defense to a dominating one.

Really, the best news of all is that there was very little personnel turnover for the Packers this offseason. Pass rusher Aaron Kampman is gone, but he wasn't much of a contributor last season anyway. With the team coming back as it was last season and with a year of experience (and success) under their belts, the Packers should contend for the NFC North -- and possibly the trophy named after their legendary former head coach.

Late-round flier ... James Jones, WR

Jones rebounded a little bit in 2009 with 440 yards on 32 catches -- improvements from 2008 -- but with an impressive five touchdowns. Let's face it, no one else on the Packers is exactly going to come out of nowhere and surprise you. But last season we saw Greg Jennings fight some injuries and Donald Driver is coming off of a knee procedure this offseason. The Packers are set to be a passing juggernaut in 2010, and if either of those guys slows down, Jones will have a chance to put up some good totals again. He's an excellent choice to consider late in deeper drafts.

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Running Backs
Ryan Grant
Brandon Jackson
Wide Receivers
Greg Jennings
Donald Driver
James Jones
Tight Ends
Jermichael Finley
Kicker/DST
Mason Crosby
Packers DST

Bounce-back candidate ... Greg Jennings, WR

Typically no one blinks when a receiver tops 1,100 yards. But when a player drafted to be a No. 1 option doesn't get many more than that and adds just four touchdowns to boot, Fantasy owners gather doubt. That's what happened to Jennings, who a year ago was considered an elite option. He had an eight-game spell last season where he scored one touchdown and recorded one 100-yard game. But he finished '09 on a positive note, notching three 100-yard performances in his last four games, including a 130-yard, one-score performance at Arizona in the playoffs. All signs point to Jennings being healthy and ready to roll this season, so landing him with a fourth- or even a fifth-round pick is a good move.

Breakout ... Jermichael Finley, TE

Expect someone in your draft to have his or her eye set on Finley. The third-year tight end introduced himself to Fantasy owners last year with incredible efforts at the Vikings, vs. the Ravens, at the Steelers and at the Cardinals in the playoffs. Playing strong in the second half of the year, Finley established himself as a favorite of Aaron Rodgers in the pass attack and finished with 676 yards and five touchdowns despite missing three games with a knee injury. Finley has had some minor tendinitis this spring, but the club should be on top of that and keep him fresh. You can count on him to be popular in drafts because of the upside he offers. There is 800-yard, seven-touchdown potential here.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
@PHI BUF @CHI DET @WAS MIA MIN @NYJ DAL bye @MIN @ATL SF @DET @NE NYG CHI

If the Packers make it to the playoffs, they'll earn it. They have a tough schedule starting at the middle of the season, so anything they can do to get on a big winning streak before their first date with Brett Favre at home will go a long way. Another issue in front of them is the improved defenses in Chicago and Detroit -- division-rival patsies last year that have gotten better defensively. Fantasy owners might have to make a choice at midseason: Stick with your Packers or trade them for players with an easier schedule in the second half of the year.

Training camp topics

2009 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Ryan Grant 307
Donald Driver 71
Greg Jennings 68
Brandon Jackson 58
Jermichael Finley 55
Ahman Green 44

Progression, nuances and chemistry are really the three things the Packers will focus on in camp. Aside from rookie left guard Brian Bulaga getting familiar with the speed of the NFL game, nothing much will change on this offense. There might be a competition between Brandon Jackson and rookie James Starks for the few reps starter Ryan Grant will leave behind, but otherwise there's not much to keep our eyes on -- other than practice reports.

Defensively, the Packers are seemingly set as well. Brad Jones is a candidate to start at outside linebacker (and is a deep Fantasy sleeper) and there is some concern that cornerback Al Harris won't be ready for the start of the season. But both guys are backed up properly and even if they don't play, the Packers defense shouldn't miss a beat. And like Bulaga on offense, there's a chance a rookie -- Morgan Burnett -- starts at strong safety for the Packers over a hobbled Atari Bigby. That could be a potential Achilles' heel for Green Bay when opponents use three- and four-receiver sets, but Burnett was fairly battle-tested in college and is expected to transition to safety seamlessly.

The Packers will have to battle with the Vikings and pesky Bears for NFC North superiority this year, but with so many players returning, along with the coaches, they should be primed to make a deep run.

Injury update

Donald Driver (knees; probable for the start of training camp) ... Al Harris (knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... James Starks (hamstring; probable for the start of training camp).

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

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Player News
Rookie Justin Hunter misses minicamp practice
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Titans rookie receiver Justin Hunter remained sidelined with what is believed to be a hamstring strain, according to The Tennessean. Hunter has yet to practice with the Titans since getting drafted in April. 

Falcons linebackers back to work
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Falcons linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas are working at the team's minicamp this week, according to the official team website. Weatherspoon is coming back from arthroscopic knee surgery while Nicholas is returning from a sports hernia. Both are expected to start on the outside this season. 

Kevin Walter out until training camp
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Titans receiver Kevin Walter (back) is out until the start of training camp, according to The Tennessean. Walter is in his first year with the Titans after spending seven seasons with division-rival Houston. 

Report: Rob Gronkowski will open camp on PUP
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski underwent surgery on his back Tuesday, a procedure that the team expected him to have but not this late in the offseason.

ESPN reported Gronkowski's surgery was delayed because of the issues he had with his forearm earlier in the year. As a result it "does seem certain," according to NFL Insider Adam Schefter that Gronkowski will begin training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

Gronkowski could potentially stay on the PUP list through the first six weeks of the season. 


Jamoris Slaughter cleared for camp
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Browns rookie safety Jamoris Slaughter has been cleared for training camp, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Slaughter ruptured his Achilles tendon playing for Notre Dame last season. 

"I've been doing all of the workouts, my leg feels great," he said. "I'm looking forward to training camp."


Falcons make a swap at tight end
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) The Falcons signed ex-Jaguars tight end Colin Cloherty, waiving tight end Anthony Miller in the process. Cloherty has played sparingly over four NFL seasons while Miller has bounced around since being signed out of college by the Broncos last year. 

Giants RB coach preaches competition, tandem
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Giants running back coach Jerald Ingram confirmed what most Fantasy owners already assumed: Second-year speedster David Wilson and big back Andre Brown will compete for playing time but both will wind up getting work. The key on how those reps will be split might come down to just how improved Wilson's pass protection skills are. 

Ingram on Wilson: "He's in a position to compete to be the guy. He has the talent, has the speed, has a few plays from a year ago underneath his belt. Everything we gauge is kind of like in college with spring ball, but once we put the pads on, we'll see who is physical, who's determined to make plays out there."

Ingram on Brown: "He's been waiting a lifetime around here (to play). We brought him in here because he can catch the ball, he can run, he can do a lot of things and be a complete running back here. And he's definitely a true every down kind of guy because he's got size, speed and quickness."

Ingram wrapped up his comments to ESPN by hinting that the Giants will utilize both backs in a "thunder and lightning-type situation." 


Does risk/reward factor make Darren McFadden draft-worthy?
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Every year we find reasons to like Darren McFadden and every year he finds a way to disappoint us. In 2011 he totaled five touchdowns and over 750 yards in seven games before messing up his foot. In 2012 he managed to stay healthy for 12 games (tied for the second-most in his career) but sported the worst rushing average of his career and scored a total of three times. 

This year McFadden enters training camp for the Raiders healthy and with dollar signs in his eyes. If he has a sensational year he will land a nice chunk of change from a team probably not called the Raiders because of their salary cap issues. If he doesn't, he could still earn a decent contract but probably will be used in a part-time role elsewhere in the league. McFadden has to know this and should put up a good effort. Helping his case is an Oakland coaching staff that redesigned the offense to his strengths including scrapping the zone-blocking scheme that seemingly baffled McFadden last year. 

McFadden's always a risky proposition -- just ask the Fantasy owners who took him the past two seasons -- but a late Round 3/early Round 4 selection might be the right price for a player aiming for a monster showcase season. 


Is Jermichael Finley worth a late-round pick?
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Last year Jermichael Finley made more headlines for his drops than his outstanding play. He finished with two touchdowns and under 700 yards for the Packers. But in 2011 he was in a contract year and posted career-highs in yardage (767) and touchdowns (eight), even though he had only six games with eight-plus Fantasy points and four came in his final five that season. 

Finley is once again entering a contract year with much to prove. Reports this offseason say he's looked "excellent" after putting on some weight and could be in line for plenty of playing time with a bump in targets with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Tom Crabtree no longer part of the Green Bay passing game. While it's tough to expect him to finally break out after several seasons of him being called a "breakout candidate," Finley isn't a bad late-round choice as part of a tight end tandem for Fantasy owners. It's a darn good bargain considering where people drafted him in previous years. 


Kenny Britt heading for make-or-break year?
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
(6/18/2013) Kenny Britt is entering the most important training camp of his career free of legal woes and injuries. His timing's perfect -- he's entering a contract year. As I noted in my list of Fantasy players motivated for a big payday, Britt has the most to gain and lose among those with expiring contracts. He's never had more than 45 catches or 775 yards in a single year but he also has made some incredible plays when he has played without limitations. 

Britt had eight or more Fantasy points in four of his last six games last season and began 2011 with a pair of double-digit Fantasy point efforts before tearing his ACL. The thinking here is that Britt could focus on his game for one year to net a large payout (or at least a franchise tag) from the Titans. Who knows how reliable he'll be after that but for 2013, Fantasy owners shouldn't shy away from him in drafts. He's worth the mid-round gamble. 


 
 
 
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