July 12, 2010

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Miami Dolphins

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
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The Dolphins were one of the most aggressive teams this offseason in an effort to improve on last year's 7-9 finish. They made headlines by adding Brandon Marshall via trade, Karlos Dansby via free agency and brought in new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

Now we'll see if all those moves pay off.

The defense should definitely improve based on Nolan's track record and Dansby's play-making ability, but the biggest acquisition for Fantasy owners is the addition of Marshall, who was a star wide receiver in Denver. He is coming off three consecutive years of at least 100 catches and has become a Fantasy star.

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Marshall has had success with two different quarterbacks (Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton) while playing in two different offensive systems under Mike Shanahan and Josh McDaniels. The transition to Miami and playing with new quarterback Chad Henne should be an easy one.

Marshall also should be fine coming off hip surgery this offseason. He had hip surgery last year before finishing with 101 catches for 1,120 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns.

We still view Marshall as a No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver, and he's worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all leagues. His presence should improve the offense in Miami, allowing Henne to be a potential starting Fantasy quarterback and creating opportunities for Brian Hartline, Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano.

The running game will also benefit because Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams won't see as many defenders near the line of scrimmage. This should be a big year on offense for the Dolphins, and many Fantasy owners will reap the benefits.

Late-round flier ... Brian Hartline, WR

Hartline had some quality moments as a rookie in 2009 when he finished with 31 catches for 506 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for 29 yards and a touchdown. He had two games with at least 94 receiving yards, and all three receiving touchdowns were scored in division matchups. He is projected to start opposite Marshall this year after he likely beats out Greg Camarillo in training camp and with Davone Bess playing in the slot, it could mean even more big plays in 2010. We think Hartline is worth a late-round pick on Draft Day.

The second-best receiver in Denver the past three years -- when Marshall was racking up at least 100 catches -- has performed well. Last year, Jabar Gaffney finished with 54 catches for 732 yards and two touchdowns. In 2008, Eddie Royal had 91 catches for 980 yards and five touchdowns. And in 2007, Brandon Stokley had 40 catches for 635 yards and five touchdowns. If Hartline reached the average of those three receivers he would finish 2010 with 62 catches for 782 yards and four touchdowns. That's excellent production if you're talking about your No. 4 or 5 Fantasy receiver.

Fantasy value chart
Player	Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Chad Henne
Tyler Thigpen
Pat White
Chad Pennington
Running Backs
Ronnie Brown
Ricky Williams
Lex Hilliard
Patrick Cobbs
Wide Receivers
Brandon Marshall
Brian Hartline
Davone Bess
Greg Camarillo
Patrick Turner
Tight Ends
Anthony Fasano
Kicker/DST
Dan Carpenter
Dolphins DST

Breakout ... Chad Henne, QB

Henne took over for the injured Chad Pennington in Week 3 last year and played well at times and looked lost at others. He had three 300-yard outings and two games with multiple touchdown passes, but he also finished the season with only 12 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. But Henne's outlook changed dramatically this offseason when the Dolphins traded for Marshall. Henne now has a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver and should develop into a solid Fantasy quarterback. He should be drafted as a No. 2 Fantasy option with a late-round pick, but don't be surprised if he ends up starting for you during the season, especially if your regular starter struggles. He could also be trade bait if he plays as expected.

Marshall helped Kyle Orton become a productive quarterback last year with the Broncos when Orton finished with 3,802 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Orton had seven games with multiple touchdown passes and five games with at least 250 passing yards. Henne is capable of those stats and more, and he's someone to target on Draft Day.

Bust ... Ricky Williams, RB

Williams is someone you want to have on your Fantasy team. But if you're expecting the production you got a year ago you will be disappointed. He was a marvel at 32 when he had 241 carries for 1,121 yards and 11 touchdowns with 35 catches for 264 yards and two more scores. The majority of that production came after Brown (foot) was hurt in Week 10, but Brown is expected to be healthy this year and motivated to earn a new contract. Williams is also looking for a new deal since, despite earlier proclamations he would retire at 34, he wants to keep playing. But with Brown back, Williams will return to a secondary role.

The Dolphins will still rely on Williams a lot, but you have to consider him a No. 3 Fantasy running back at best. If you can get him as your No. 4 option that's even better, but don't draft Williams as a starting option. He will likely finish closer to his 2008 stats (659 rushing yards and four touchdowns and 219 receiving yards and a touchdown), which isn't bad at all but half of his production from last year. And that's what you can expect in 2010.

Schedule breakdown


1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
@BUF	@MIN	NYJ	NE	bye	@GB	PIT	@CIN	@BAL	TEN	CHI	@OAK	CLE	@NYJ	BUF	DET	@NE

If the Dolphins believe they are playoff contenders they will be put to the test right away. Miami plays four teams that made the playoffs in 2009 in its first five games, including road games at Minnesota and Green Bay. The Dolphins also play at Cincinnati and Baltimore on top of two games at the Jets and Patriots, but they still get to play Buffalo twice, Cleveland, Oakland and Detroit. Those are great matchups for both Brown and Williams.

Training camp topics

2009 Touches Leaders
Player	Touches
Ricky Williams	276
Ronnie Brown	161
Davone Bess	78
Greg Camarillo	50
Lousaka Polite	48

The biggest thing for the Dolphins in training camp is making sure their two biggest stars on offense -- Marshall and Brown -- are 100 percent healthy. Both are dealing with injuries that limited their work in the offseason. Marshall had minor hip surgery, although he is expected to be ready for the start of training camp. The same goes for Brown, who suffered the foot injury last year.

If everyone is healthy, the Dolphins will have a wealth of talent for offensive coordinator Dan Henning to work with. Henne has plenty of potential as a first-year starting quarterback, the running game is sound and the passing game should develop with the addition of Marshall to go with Hartline, Bess and Camarillo. Miami also has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and tight end Anthony Fasano is looking for a bounce-back year.

On defense, the Dolphins should improve under Nolan, who did a great job in Denver last season. The Dolphins missed the playoffs last year after winning the division in 2008, but a playoff run is possible this year with the moves made this offseason.

Injury update

Brandon Marshall (hip; probable for the start of training camp) ... Ronnie Brown (foot; probable for the start of training camp) ... Patrick Cobbs (knee; probable for the start of training camp) ... Patrick Turner (undisclosed; probable for the start of training camp) ... Chad Pennington (shoulder; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Jason Ferguson (suspended; out until at least Week 9) ... Channing Crowder (foot; probable for the start of training camp) ... Will Allen (knee; probable for the start of training camp)

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Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012

News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."

Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012

News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.

Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.

Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012

News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.

Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.

Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012

News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."

Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.

Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012

News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."

Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.

Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012

News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."

Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.

Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012

News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."

Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.

Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."

Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.

Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."

Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.

Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012

News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.

Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, WAS, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings