2010 Fantasy outlooks: Denver Broncos

Senior Fantasy Writer

July 19, 2010

Josh McDaniels has made some questionable moves since taking over for Mike Shanahan as Denver's head coach prior to the 2009 season. He's traded away some key offensive players.

Gone are Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. In their place -- at least for now -- is Kyle Orton at quarterback, Jabar Gaffney at wide receiver and Daniel Graham at tight end. Most NFL fans wouldn't make those trades, and Eddie Royal better not invest in any real estate in the Denver area since he's also a Shanahan guy.

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There aren't many great Fantasy options for the Broncos this season. The only guarantee is running back Knowshon Moreno, and Gaffney has some sleeper potential. And in keeper leagues, it's definitely worth investing in rookie wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and even quarterback Tim Tebow.

But imagine if the Broncos still had Cutler, Marshall and Scheffler to go with Moreno and the other complementary players. That would be a fun team to watch -- with plenty of Fantasy options.

Sleeper ... Jabar Gaffney, WR

Gaffney helped a lot of Fantasy owners win a championship last year when he was a star in the final two games of the season. Gaffney had 21 catches for 282 yards and two touchdowns against Philadelphia and Kansas City. In the season finale against the Chiefs, Gaffney had 14 catches for 213 yards, and that was with Marshall out of the lineup.

Now, Marshall is in Miami, and the Broncos need someone to fill the role as the No. 1 wide receiver. Rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are dealing with foot injuries heading into training camp, and Royal, Brandon Stokley and Brandon Lloyd aren't suited for the position. Gaffney played under McDaniels when he was the offensive coordinator in New England, so there is a familiarity there. And Gaffney showed last year he could shine when given an opportunity. We're not talking about spending a high draft pick on Gaffney, but he is worth taking as your No. 4 or 5 Fantasy wide receiver. Someone has to catch the ball in Denver, and Gaffney has the potential to be a quality playmaker.

Fantasy value chart
Player	Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Kyle Orton
Tim Tebow
Brady Quinn
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno
Correll Buckhalter
J.J. Arrington
Wide Receivers
Jabar Gaffney
Eddie Royal
Demaryius Thomas
Eric Decker
Brandon Stokley
Brandon Lloyd
Tight Ends
Daniel Graham
Richard Quinn
Kicker/DST
Matt Prater
Broncos DST

Breakout ... Knowshon Moreno, RB

Moreno was better than expected as a rookie last year, and he should take on more of a workload in his sophomore season. He didn't rush for 100 yards in any game, but he did have double digits in Fantasy points in five games while gaining 947 rushing yards on 247 carries and five touchdowns. He also added 28 catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns with four lost fumbles.

He will still lose some carries to Correll Buckhalter this year, and the defense will key in on him with Marshall now gone. But Moreno is it when it comes to legitimate Fantasy options in Denver, and he's worth drafting in Round 2 in all formats. This is the year when Moreno becomes a star. Don't be surprised if the former Georgia Bulldog outperforms his draft status to finish as a Top 10 Fantasy running back.

Keeper-league target ... Demaryius Thomas, WR

The Broncos made two interesting picks during the NFL Draft. They took Thomas ahead of Dez Bryant as the No. 1 wide receiver to come off the board, and they spent a first-round pick on Tebow. While Tebow might develop into a quality starting quarterback, Thomas is the player to target in keeper leagues. The Broncos hope he is the heir apparent to Marshall, who was traded to Miami. Thomas is a risky Fantasy option this year coming off a foot injury in February. But he showed last year at Georgia Tech -- a run-heavy offense -- that he can post outstanding stats with 46 catches for 1,154 yards.

You should also target Decker in keeper leagues. He was drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft out of Minnesota, but like Thomas, he's also coming off a foot injury and is a questionable option as a rookie.

Schedule breakdown

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
@JAC	SEA	IND	@TEN	@BAL	NYJ	OAK	vSF	bye	KC	@SD	STL	@KC	@ARI	@OAK	HOU	SD

The Broncos got off to a great start in 2009, going 6-0 before finishing 8-8. This year, the Broncos won't have such an easy slate to open the season with games against the Colts, Ravens and Jets before their bye in Week 9. The good thing for the Broncos is they close the season with two games against the Chiefs and one game at Oakland. But Denver does have three road games in a row from Weeks 13-15, and that won't be easy no matter the opponent.

Training camp topics

2009 Touches Leaders
Player	Touches
Knowshon Moreno	275
Correll Buckhalter	151
Brandon Marshall	108
Jabar Gaffney	54
Eddie Royal	38

Orton enters training camp as the starting quarterback, but McDaniels said Brady Quinn and Tebow will have the chance to compete for the job. We'd be shocked if Orton wasn't the starter in Week 1, and he should be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback.

Quinn, who was acquired in a trade from Cleveland, should remain the No. 2 quarterback, and Tebow will likely be used in certain packages. He could get some short-yardage touchdowns, but he's not worth drafting in the majority of seasonal leagues. Tebow should only be drafted in keeper leagues and rookie formats.

The Broncos also have to figure out their receiving corps with Marshall gone and rookies Thomas and Decker dealing with foot injuries. The one thing you can expect is an emphasis on the ground game, which should mean Moreno getting a lot of work with the hopes of a big year.

Injury update

Demaryius Thomas (foot; probable for the start of training camp) ... Eric Decker (foot; probable for the start of training camp) ... Brandon Stokley (shoulder; probable for the start of training camp) ... Brady Quinn (foot; probable for the start of training camp) ... Jamal Williams (elbow; questionable for the start of training camp)

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Goodson says he'll practice next week
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
11:00 AM

News: The New York Daily News reports Jets running back Mike Goodson expects to practice next week. He didn't practice this week in the wake of being arrested on drug and weapons charges. A hearing is scheduled for June 12.

Analysis: Maybe the Jets are planning to have Goodson as part of their plan for 2013 after all. Between the courts and the league there's no guarantee that Goodson will play for all of the 2013 season. For now owners shouldn't have him on their radars, though if his attorney is as innocent as he suggests, that would change before the majority of people hold their Fantasy drafts.

Morgan hopes for No. 3 role
Joe Morgan, WR, NO
10:57 AM

News: The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports Saints receiver Joe Morgan is trying to prove himself this season. After missing his rookie year in 2011, Morgan had just 10 catches for 379 yards and three touchdowns last season, but entering his third year he could be in line for a bigger role. With Devery Henderson gone, Morgan could be third on the depth chart. Since he was predominately a deep threat last season, Morgan is trying to improve his intermediate routes this offseason if he hopes to earn the No. 3 wide receiver role. "You've seen the highlight plays, so that means all the other 31 teams have seen the highlight reel plays," Morgan said. "They're not going to keep letting me run up and down the field. Eventually guys are going to start playing softer coverage and play back me back a little bit."

Analysis: Morgan will continue to be the deep threat for the Saints, but if he improves his route running that will only enhance his ability. We like Morgan with a late-round flier in standard leagues, and hopefully his third season in the NFL will lead to a breakout campaign.

Lockette in step with Kap
Ricardo Lockette, WR, SF
11:17 AM

News: The San Jose Mercury News wrote about 49ers receiver Ricardo Lockette and what he might be able to bring to San Francisco after the team lost veteran Michael Crabtree to a torn Achilles. The report says, "Lockette, 27, has spent the past eight months getting round-the-clock tutoring from Kaepernick, including two months this offseason as they trained in Atlanta with teammates A.J. Jenkins and Chad Hall. Kaepernick also has found creative ways to help Lockette assimilate with the 49ers' vast and complex playbook, and that includes word association for breaking down plays."

Analysis: We took a peek at Lockette's two catches in 2011 with the Seahawks. He's got nice size to go with terrific speed. One of his catches went for a touchdown where he bobbled the ball before reeling it in. The other was a fade route where he had a defender on his hip and he still made the catch. But he also had a dropped pass and ultimately wasn't consistent enough for the Seahawks to keep him. The Niners seemingly waited for a chance to use him and this could be it. We're not drafting him just yet but we're definitely watching him in training camp.

Alexander says he's at 'full speed'
Danario Alexander, WR, SD
10:57 AM

News: U-T San Diego speculated that Danario Alexander could be a trade target for the 49ers in the wake of losing Michael Crabtree but the Chargers are high on their young, tall talent. The team is reportedly excited about Alexander after he clicked in a big way with Philip Rivers last season. Alexander has looked good in spring OTAs, making back-shoulder catches on Monday. "This is a great opportunity for me to just get better without worrying about any injuries," Alexander said. "I was trying to ease into it last year, trying to keep my feet under me. But, now, I'm full speed all the way."

Analysis: A year ago he was struggling with a hamstring injury in St. Louis, so Alexander's come a long way. He's entering a contract year and has much to prove. We suspect the Chargers will lean toward a pass-happy approach and that would favor Alexander. He's got a track record of serious knee issues (five surgeries) but obviously has upside after catching 37 passes for a ridiculous 658 yards (17.8 yards per catch) and seven touchdowns including two at Pittsburgh in an improbable upset victory. With the Chargers, Alexander is worth drafting as a low-end No. 3 Fantasy WR with a mid-round pick -- and some pretty strong upside.

Luck OK with running more
Andrew Luck, QB, IND
10:42 AM

News: According to the team's official website, the Colts ran the ball just 39.7 percent of the time last season. While that sat well with Andrew Luck last season, the truth is the Colts' coaching staff wants to be more balanced. As the team moves into a new offense with more West Coast offense principles (Luck's familiar with it), Luck said it's OK for him to hand off more often. "Obviously, all quarterbacks have a little syndrome in which we like to think we can throw the ball every play, every game and win," said Luck. "I think we realize that running the ball is going to help our passing game. If we can have a balanced attack, I think that will really, really help the team."

Analysis: While we don't expect the Colts to run the ball even 50 percent of the time in 2013, we do think they will think of running the ball a bit more often than they did last year. Luck attempted 627 passes last season but completed under 55 percent of them. If he throws only, say, 550 passes but completes 60 percent of them then he'd have roughly the same amount of completions as he had as a rookie. While the new system might mean more short- and mid-range passes from Luck, he should still be productive for Fantasy owners. He's worth a pick starting in Round 6 as a starter in standard seasonal leagues.

Luck OK with running more
Colts, TQB IND,
10:42 AM

Bell a fit for Steelers' blocking system?
Le'Veon Bell, RB, PIT
10:19 AM

News: The Steelers will utilize a zone-blocking scheme in addition to their traditional power-blocking, man-on-a-man style according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The change-up essentially favors quicker, sleeker running backs with good eyes to find a hole and burst through it. Bell has good field vision but is a massive downhill runner at 6-foot-1 and 244 pounds, though he is nimble in tight spaces.

Analysis: Bell opened up OTAs behind Jonathan Dwyer on the Steelers depth chart, and they'll battle for playing time along with a trimmed-down Isaac Redman. The blocking scheme might not be perfect for the rookie but the expected workload he'll get in Pittsburgh should mean he'll run behind every kind of scheme his O-line can functionally perform. Expect Bell to get picked starting in Round 5 or 6 in seasonal drafts and dynasty/keeper league start-ups. Bell will be a Top 10 pick in rookie-only drafts.

Moeaki out until training camp
Tony Moeaki, TE, KC
10:07 AM

News: Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Thursday that tight end Tony Moeaki, who underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his knee this offseason, could be out until training camp. "Probably see him at training camp,” Reid said. He was asked if Moeaki would be ready when training camp starts. “We’ll see," Reid said. "But right now, I’m thinking he will be, but we’ll see how it goes. He’s working like crazy.”

Analysis: Moeaki will compete with Anthony Fasano and rookie Travis Kelce for playing time, but he has minimal Fantasy value even if he starts. Keep an eye on Moeaki's health heading into training camp, but he should not be drafted in the majority of leagues even if he's 100 percent and starting. There are just too many better Fantasy options coming into the season.

Reid fond of Kelce
Travis Kelce, TE, KC
10:03 AM

News: Chiefs coach Andy Reid likes what he sees from rookie tight end Travis Kelce so far through OTA workouts. The Chiefs drafted Kelce in the third round from Cincinnati. "He’s doing a nice job, athletically," Reid said Thursday. "Again, that’s one of the positions that has a whole lot of different looks that they’ve got to learn, and he’s working through that. He’s a smart kid, he’s working through it. It’s just a matter of time and reps there. He’s working hard.”

Analysis: Kelce should provide a target for quarterback Alex Smith after snagging 45 passes for 722 yards and eight touchdowns for the Bearcats last season. The Chiefs have two other known tight ends on their roster in Anthony Fasano and Tony Moeaki, but it won't be hard for Kelce to get playing time ahead of them if he plays as expected. He's not worth drafting in most seasonal leagues, but Kelce can be someone to monitor and potentially add off the waiver wire. He is worth drafting with a mid-round pick in rookie-only formats.

Saints send Romeus packing
Greg Romeus, DE, NO
9:23 AM

News: Defensive end Greg Romeus was cut by the Saints.

Analysis: Romeus has never been a reliable Fantasy option. Keep him off of rosters.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings