July 7, 2010

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Kansas City Chiefs

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
Follow Jamey
Follow CBS Fantasy Football

This offseason, the Chiefs went to work on their offense. They added coordinator Charlie Weis, the former Notre Dame coach and architect of New England's offense. Kansas City also signed running back Thomas Jones and offensive linemen Ryan Lilja and Casey Wiegmann and used a second-round pick in the NFL Draft on playmaker Dexter McCluster.

Add that to Jamaal Charles, Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers, and the Chiefs could be in line to move the ball at will in the weak AFC West. Fantasy owners who take a chance on the Chiefs could reap major rewards.

Follow us on ...
Get the latest news and analysis from the most informed Fantasy staff in the industry by following us on Twitter and Facebook. @cbsfantasynews facebook.com/cbssportsfantasy

We view Charles and Bowe as starting options and Jones, McCluster and Chambers should be key reserves. The key will be Cassel's development in his second year as the starter in Kansas City, and that's where Weis comes in to help him become a potential Fantasy sleeper.

Weis should make this Chiefs offense shine, and we're excited to see it all play out.

Sleeper ... Dexter McCluster, WR

McCluster said in an interview with CBSSports.com this offseason that he wants to be known as an "OW," which stands for offensive weapon. That's the best way to describe him as a rookie this year since he will line up at receiver, running back and see time at quarterback in the Wildcat.

There are two comparisons to make with McCluster that should get Fantasy owners excited. The first is Percy Harvin, who was a speedster from the Southeastern Conference that was used in various roles at Florida. Harvin, as we know, was a spectacular rookie for Minnesota last year. In his final year at Ole Miss, McCluster accumulated 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The other comparison is Wes Welker. The Chiefs coaching staff has ties to New England, and Weis, who never coached Welker, likes a speedy slot receiver. McCluster will line up most of the time between Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers and create plenty of mismatches for opposing linebackers, safeties and nickel cornerbacks.

We see McCluster as a No. 3 or 4 Fantasy wide receiver. He's worth a mid-round pick in all seasonal leagues, and his value is slightly higher in leagues where receptions count. He's a first-round pick in rookie-only drafts.

Fantasy value chart
Player	Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Matt Cassel
Running Backs
Jamaal Charles
Thomas Jones
Wide Receivers
Dwayne Bowe
Chris Chambers
Dexter McCluster
Jerheme Urban
Tight Ends
Leonard Pope
Brad Cottam
Tony Moeaki
Kicker/DST
Ryan Succop
Chiefs DST

Bust ... Thomas Jones, RB

Jones is going to be 32 when the season starts, and you have to believe his body is going to start to break down. He's averaged 308 carries the past five years. Jones, who was a dominant force last year with the Jets when he ran 331 times for 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns, also isn't the primary back like he was in New York. That role belongs to Jamaal Charles, who was the best player in Kansas City last year, especially in the second half of the season. Jones also goes from an amazing offensive line with the Jets to a rebuilding one with the Chiefs. It all adds up to Jones taking a significant step back in production.

We still see Jones having some value this year since he will share carries with Charles, and Jones can be useful in short-yardage situations, especially near the goal line. But you should only draft Jones as a No. 3 Fantasy running back. Charles, who finished last season with 190 carries for 1,120 yards and seven touchdowns and 40 catches for 297 yards and a touchdown, is still viable as a No. 2 Fantasy option. He also loses value with Jones now in Kansas City, but Charles will be better than Jones this year by a wide margin.

Bounce-back ... Dwayne Bowe, WR

We always talk about receivers in their third season and how it leads to a breakout performance. Bowe was the opposite of that last year. He had a miserable 2009, which started in coach Todd Haley's doghouse, included a four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs and ended with the worst stats of his career: 47 catches, 589 yards and four touchdowns. We know Bowe can do more, and we expect a bounce-back season in 2010.

In his first two years, Bowe averaged 78 catches for 1,009 yards and six touchdowns. He is capable of those stats this season if not more now that Charlie Weis is running the offense, and we expect Matt Cassel to also improve in his second year as the starter in Kansas City. We like Bowe as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver. He's worth drafting with a mid-round pick, and he should finish the season as a Top 20 Fantasy option this season after he rebounds from last year's poor showing.

Schedule breakdown

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
SD	@CLE	SF	bye	@IND	@HOU	JAC	BUF	@OAK	@DEN	ARI	@SEA	DEN	@SD	@STL	TEN	OAK

Fantasy owners with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones should be giddy looking at this schedule. None of the tough run defenses from 2009 are on the docket this year, and Charles and Jones should benefit. The Chiefs also get three road games indoors at Indianapolis, Houston and St. Louis, and any time you get the NFC West on the schedule that will help your offense do well.

Training camp topics

2009 Touches Leaders
Player	Touches
Jamaal Charles	230
Larry Johnson	144
Dwayne Bowe	47
Bobby Wade	39
Chris Chambers	36

The talent is there for the Chiefs. Now they have to make it work. Cassel has to prove he's ready to take the next step at quarterback after a disappointing first year, and we think he can. Consider Cassel a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback on Draft Day and take him with a late-round pick. Charles and Jones have to function in this backfield tandem, and Jones has to show he can be a complementary option instead of a starter. Charles also has to build on last year's success and not falter. McCluster has to be ready for the NFL after starring in college, and he also has to learn the playbook since he's playing a variety of roles. And the entire offense has to figure out Charlie Weis' system in a short amount of time.

We're excited about the Chiefs this year -- at least on offense. The defense is another story, but Kansas City has a lot of offensive stars that Fantasy owners will enjoy.

Injury update

Jamaal Charles (shoulder; probable for the start of training camp) ... Brad Cottam (neck; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Brodie Croyle (finger; probable for the start of training camp)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Jamey at @jameyeisenberg . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012

News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."

Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012

News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.

Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.

Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012

News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.

Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.

Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012

News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."

Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.

Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012

News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."

Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.

Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012

News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."

Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.

Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012

News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."

Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.

Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."

Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.

Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."

Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.

Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012

News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.

Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, WAS, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings