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Jamey Eisenberg

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Dallas Cowboys

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The Cowboys ended a 12-year drought without a playoff victory last year when they beat the Eagles 34-14 in the first round. It was also the first career postseason victory for coach Wade Phillips in five tries and improved Tony Romo's playoff record to 1-2.

The Cowboys don't plan to rest on that accomplishment, especially after getting beat 34-3 against Minnesota in the second round of the playoffs. Dallas wants to reach the Super Bowl this season, which just happens to be at Cowboys Stadium.

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To do that, Romo needs another outstanding season. Romo threw for a career-high 4,483 yards last year with 26 touchdowns and a career-low nine interceptions. And this year, he could be even better.

The Cowboys gave Romo a new weapon this offseason with rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant, a first-round draft choice. Bryant will join an impressive receiving corps that features Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Roy E. Williams and Patrick Crayton.

Romo also has solid receivers out of the backfield in Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, and he plays in an offense that will remain explosive. We consider Romo a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, and he could end up as a Top 5 player at his position.

The one downside to Romo is he has an inexperienced starter at left tackle after Flozell Adams was let go. Doug Free is the new left tackle if he can beat out Alex Barron, and he only has seven career starts. If Free can keep Romo from getting hit, Romo should shine -- and that's what we expect to happen.

Breakout ... Felix Jones, RB

There have been differing reports this offseason out of Dallas about who will be the starting running back between Barber and Jones. The only certainty in the backfield is Choice is third on the depth chart. You can expect about an even split between Barber and Jones during the season, but it makes sense if Jones gets the majority of touches, because he has the ability to do more based on his breakaway speed and playmaking ability. Barber is more of a grinder, and he's better suited for short-yardage work and goal-line situations.

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Tony Romo
Running Backs
Marion Barber
Felix Jones
Tashard Choice
Wide Receivers
Miles Austin
Roy E. Williams
Dez Bryant
Patrick Crayton
Tight Ends
Jason Witten
Martellus Bennett
Kicker/DST
David Buehler
Cowboys DST

When Barber was at his best for the Cowboys and Fantasy owners he was the No. 2 option behind Julius Jones. In 2006-07, Barber averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 24 rushing touchdowns. In his past two seasons as the starter, Barber has averaged just 4.1 yards per carry and scored only 14 rushing touchdowns. If Jones starts with Barber providing a change-of-pace option, the Cowboys backfield will benefit -- and so will Fantasy owners. Barber can return to his more natural role, which would still make him worth drafting as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy option, and Jones can build off last year's playoff success.

In two playoff games with Barber limited due to injury, Jones had 30 carries for 217 yards and a touchdown, including a 73-yard run, and four catches for 52 yards. The problem for Jones has been staying healthy since he's missed 12 games in his first two years. But we're expecting Jones to see a bigger role this year, starter or not, and he's someone to target on Draft Day as a No. 3 Fantasy running back. Barber may end up with more touchdowns, but Jones can still produce enough to help your Fantasy roster for several weeks during the season.

Bounce-back candidate ... Roy E. Williams, WR

Williams has struggled since his trade from Detroit to Dallas in 2008, and he's averaged just 37 catches for 513 yards and five touchdowns the past two seasons. But I'm not convinced he's finished as a quality Fantasy option, even with the addition of Bryant. Reports out of Dallas are Williams had a great offseason, and he should be motivated to keep his job with Bryant now in the mix. Williams also enters the season without any pressure of having to be the No. 1 receiver since Miles Austin showed last year he can handle that role.

That leaves Williams with the chance to surprise Fantasy owners, and he's worth a late-round pick on Draft Day. I would take Williams ahead of Bryant. Keep in mind, Williams is only 28, and he's had three years with at least 50 catches and 815 yards and four years with at least seven touchdowns. He could still put together a good campaign, especially with all the single coverage he'll get.

Now, is Williams going to develop into a starting Fantasy option again? No. But can be a useful reserve or a bye-week replacement? Absolutely. Don't be surprised if Williams proves to the Cowboys that, finally, he was worth the price they paid to get him from the Lions.

Keeper-league target ... Dez Bryant, WR

Bryant is obvious as a keeper-league selection based on his ability and the eventual role he'll play with the Cowboys. But that's the only format I would take Bryant on Draft Day unless he fell to me with a late-round pick. As talented as Bryant is, rookie wide receivers take time to develop. Bryant also is stepping into an offense where he's not needed since Dallas already has Austin, Williams, Crayton, Witten and Martellus Bennett.

Crayton is still a candidate to get traded or released, and Bryant will have plenty of opportunities to make plays. But don't expect him to be a significant contributor in seasonal leagues, and he's already shown some injuries this offseason with hamstring, ankle and hip problems. Bryant is going to be great in the future and could be a starting Fantasy option as early as next year. But you should lower your expectations for him this season since he might not make an immediate impact in 2010.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
@WAS CHI @HOU bye TEN @MIN NYG JAC @GB @NYG DET NO @IND PHI WAS @ARI @PHI

Free, the new Cowboys left tackle, will get an early test facing Julius Peppers and Mario Williams in two of the first three games of the year. That could go a long way to determining how Romo and the passing game will do this season, but we expect Romo to be fine. The Cowboys will get a chance for revenge at Minnesota in Week 6 since the Vikings ended their season last year, and then Dallas has a tough stretch to close the season. The Cowboys face last year's Super Bowl teams back-to-back -- vs. New Orleans in Week 12 and at Indianapolis in Week 13 -- and then close the year with three division games (two against the Eagles) in the final four weeks.

Training camp topics

2009 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Marion Barber 240
Felix Jones 135
Jason Witten 94
Miles Austin 83
Tashard Choice 79

There are three spots on offense where the Cowboys have to nail down a starter: left tackle, running back and wide receiver. Going into training camp, Free has the starting left tackle job, but he could face a challenge from Barron.

Barber and Jones will likely go back and forth as the starting running back, and Bryant will challenge Williams for the starting receiver spot. We also have to find out if Crayton will get traded or released.

The Cowboys have also said that Witten could be used more in the red zone this year, which would help his Fantasy value since he only scored two touchdowns last season. And we'll find out if David Buehler, as expected, can lock down the kicking job in Dallas. If he does, consider Buehler a sleeper on Draft Day.

Injury update

Dez Bryant (hamstring; probable for the start of training camp) ... Orlando Scandrick (finger; questionable for the start of training camp) ... DeMarcus Ware (foot; probable for the start of training camp) ... Keith Brooking (knee; probable for the start of training camp) ... Akwasi Owusu-Ansha (shoulder; questionable for the start of training camp)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Jamey at @jameyeisenberg . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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