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Jamey Eisenberg

2010 Fantasy outlooks: San Francisco 49ers

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The 49ers went 8-8 last season, but they enter 2010 with the chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. There's plenty of reason for optimism in San Francisco.

For starters, the 49ers finally have a starting quarterback they can count on. Alex Smith, who was a bust when San Francisco drafted him No. 1 overall in 2005, finally looked like a quality passer when he was given a second chance last year.

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Smith is surrounded by plenty of talent on offense with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, and the 49ers enhanced their offensive line by drafting rookie Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. On defense, the 49ers are led by Patrick Willis, who is among the best linebackers in the NFL.

There also is change in Arizona, which has been San Francisco's biggest rival in the NFC West, with Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin now gone. The 49ers also swept the Cardinals in two games last year.

For Fantasy owners, Gore remains a No. 1 option and is worth a first-round pick in all leagues. He should have another dominant year.

Along with Smith, Davis finally lived up to his potential last year when he tied the NFL record for touchdowns by a tight end with 13. He is a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this year and could repeat his performance as the best player at his position.

We also like Crabtree to improve in his sophomore season, and Josh Morgan is also someone Fantasy owners should keep an eye on. The 49ers DST could also be considered a starting unit, as 2010 has the makings for a big year in San Francisco.

Sleeper ... Alex Smith, QB

Smith is back as the starting quarterback in San Francisco, and this time he plans to keep the job. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2005 lost the starting position due to shoulder injuries and inconsistent play, but he was given a second chance in 2009 when Shaun Hill struggled. Smith never looked back as did well developing a rapport with Davis, Crabtree and Gore.

Smith showed his potential during a three-game stretch last season against Green Bay, Jacksonville and Seattle with 769 passing yards, seven touchdowns and one interception, which put him on the Fantasy radar again. He finished the season completing a career-high 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,350 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He is a No. 2 Fantasy option coming into the season, which happens to be a potential contract year, but he can be a spot starter in standard leagues with the chance to increase his value if he picks up where last season ended. We never thought Smith would be Fantasy relevant again, but here he is with the chance to keep getting better.

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith
Running Backs
Frank Gore
Glen Coffee
Anthony Dixon
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree
Josh Morgan
Ted Ginn Jr.
Tight Ends
Vernon Davis
Kicker/DST
Joe Nedney
49ers DST

Breakout ... Michael Crabtree, WR

Crabtree was better than expected as a rookie last year when he finished with 48 catches for 625 yards and two touchdowns. He only played in 11 games after missing the first five games due to a holdout. This year, Crabtree will be on the field from Week 1, and he has the potential to be a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver. He would have finished with 69 catches for 909 yards and three touchdowns last year if you projected his stats over a full season, but we think he's much better than that. He's had a full offseason of work and reports out of San Francisco are that he has a better understanding of the offense and looks polished. We think he's in line to take the next step in his career, and he could be a solid Fantasy wide receiver in 2010.

Late-round flier ... Josh Morgan, WR

Morgan is expected to start for the 49ers this year opposite Crabtree. He's entering his third year in the NFL, which is typically when wide receivers have a breakout season, so plenty of eyes are on him. Morgan had a decent year in 2009. He finished with 52 catches for 527 yards and three touchdowns, which were better stats than Crabtree, although he played in five more games. Morgan will get plenty of single coverage with defenses focusing on Davis and Crabtree, and that could allow Morgan to make some plays. We're not expecting Morgan to develop into a starting Fantasy option, but he could be a bye-week or injury replacement this year. And if he has a breakout campaign in his third year you'll be happy you drafted him with a late-round pick.

Schedule breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
@SEA NO @KC @ATL PHI OAK @CAR vDEN bye STL TB @ARI @GB SEA @SD @STL ARI

The 49ers have nine road games this year when you factor in the Week 8 trip to London against Denver. But they benefit like the rest of their division by playing the AFC West, which means two games against Kansas City and Oakland. They also get to face a depleted Arizona defense twice along with four games against the Seahawks and Rams, so look for the San Francisco offense to shine this season.

Training camp topics

2009 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Frank Gore 281
Glen Coffee 94
Vernon Davis 78
Josh Morgan 57
Michael Crabtree 48

Fantasy owners who draft Gore with a first-round pick will want to know who the No. 2 running back will be this season. Rookie Anthony Dixon plans to challenge Coffee for the role, but we expect Coffee to hold onto the job.

We'll also find out what role, if any, Ted Ginn Jr. will have on offense. He's not worth drafting in the majority of Fantasy leagues this year, but his deep speed could help Smith get a couple of extra touchdown passes.

This is the first time in several years the 49ers don't have to worry about their quarterback situation. Smith is entrenched as the starter, and hopefully he can play like he did in 2009 and lead San Francisco back to the playoffs.

Injury update

Brandon Jones (ankle; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Patrick Willis (knee; probable for the start of training camp)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Jamey at @jameyeisenberg . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
11:38 AM
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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