2010 Draft Prep: Offensive trends to consider

In two of the last three years, teams have opted to pass the ball way more than run it, and in general teams are throwing more than running. The total amount of quarterbacks who throw for over 3,000 yards and receivers who catch for over 1,000 yards goes up each year, and the number of 1,000-yard rushers slide each year. Two football insiders, Charley Casserly of CBS Sports and Mike Lombardi of NFL Network, both agree that this particular trend isn't slowing down.

"I think we're just seeing part of an evolution of teams taking more advantage of the rules and teams being more aggressive offensively with spreading things out," Casserly said, referring to the rules that aid receivers (no physical contact downfield by defenders, no hitting defenseless receivers). It's these rules that should make throwing the ball the overwhelmingly popular way to move the chains in 2010.

"It's fairly clear that we have moved from the concept of establishing the run as how you win in the NFL," Lombardi said, citing that 28 of the league's 32 teams threw more than ran in the first half of games last season -- previously that was when you would see more running than passing. "You have to be able to run the ball to keep the lead and you have to be able to throw the ball to get the lead. I think we're going to see more of that and see the league become increasingly proficient at finding ways to throw the football."

But just saying "teams will throw more" doesn't answer everything for Fantasy owners -- how the ball will be moved through the air matters. Casserly believes that quick screens off the snap to throw off defenses and use of the no-huddle will be prominent while Lombardi feels that teams will continue to run simple plays out of varying formations to gain what he calls "chunks of yardage" -- plays of 20 yards or more. Obviously, both will be right on a case-by-case basis depending on the strengths and weaknesses of each team's quarterback and receiving corps.

Just as there have been offensive trends, one large defensive trend has been the move toward 3-4 defenses. That takes a big defensive lineman off the field and replaces him with a more athletic outside linebacker who could generate a pass rush and play against the run better in space. As part of the chess game, offenses are responding with formations that force 3-4 defenses to keep their outside linebackers off the edges and play in coverage, which is the weakness of most outside linebackers. Formations like a two-tight end set or a four-wide set with two slot receivers could force the defense's hand. More teams are expected to utilize these formations this season based on the personnel they have. For instance, a team like the Lions could use tight ends Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew at the same time while a team like the Patriots could opt for four receivers, including Wes Welker and Julian Edelman lining up inside. The more reps these teams get to their receiving weapons, the better they'll be for Fantasy.

"Joe Gibbs used two tight ends to balance the defense and put a tight end in Lawrence Taylor's face, not that it always helped," Casserly said referring to his days with Gibbs and the Redskins. "It helps against that formation. Obviously you've got to make a decision -- if you have a quarterback who's smart and can get rid of the ball, and you can spread the 3-4 out, that is a way to attack it.

"What you want to do is take advantage of the outside linebacker, so it becomes a matter of who can win the battle. If their linebackers can get to you then they win it, but their linebackers are not there for coverage purposes."

But what might be worth the time you've spent reading this is knowing the impact of a rule change and a placement change of the umpire on the field. The NFL has taken steps to prevent defenders from hitting defenseless receivers (and anyone else in a defenseless position) in the head or neck with their helmet, forearm or shoulder. That could tone down the impact of some hits, or make warned defenders think for a split second before launching into a receiver. The other change is where the umpire lines up: no longer is he near the middle linebacker, now he's behind the offense. This could very easily open up the middle of the field and make tight ends and slot receivers like we talked about before even more dangerous.

All of these games-within-the-games, rule changes and position of NFL umps that could benefit receivers and tight ends leave running backs in the dust, of course. Fantasy owners were already keenly aware that do-it-all backs were dwindling in population and running-back-by-committee situations were popping up, but now teams are preferring to pass so much more to the point that quarterbacks might hand off only 15 to 20 times per game. Or unless the team has a brilliant running back and an empty cupboard at receiver.

"The day of the one back being able to do everything is over with," Lombardi said. "You'll find that running backs excel in certain phases. The backs that can do it will obviously play, but some backs can't pass protect and they'll [be limited]."

Head coaches also believe that running backs, while obviously vital to keep defenses honest, are replaceable in play call decisions.

"I really believe that everyone in this league would like to run the ball and have some balance to what they do," Chargers head coach Norv Turner said. "But what's happened over the last four or five years is that [we've become more of] an eight-man front, overload defense, blitzing league. You can't sit there and run into some of the looks you have over and over again. So you end up throwing the football. Now there's a lot of the passing game that is like runs, whether they are screens or real quick passing that end up being your running game. It takes the place of your running game."

This is the direction of NFL offenses, and this is why Fantasy owners are opting for quarterbacks and receivers sooner than ever before in drafts. They'll do more and put up more numbers, all at the cost of running back production -- especially when you consider that most teams will divvy up the shrinking rushing workload.

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