Aug. 25, 2010

2010 Draft Prep: Rookies to run with in 2010

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

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When most people start a new job, it takes a little time for them to get acclimated. They might need to take in an orientation program or have a day to decorate their office, and meeting new people is an ongoing process.

No such thing for rookie running backs. They're drafted, they learn a playbook and then they start running. End of story.

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Rookie running backs have been factors in Fantasy Football for decades. Unlike their peers at quarterback, wide receiver and tight end, there's no time to gather experience or get used to their new surroundings. They're expected to make an impact immediately, and the instant gratification that's expected with the top rookie rushers is what makes them so desirable in NFL Drafts -- and Fantasy drafts.

Of course, it doesn't always work out that way. Just because a running back is a rookie doesn't give him a free pass for big stats. It might give him a chance at playing time in some capacity, but there's really only one or two rookie rushers per season who can contribute big in Fantasy Football from a yardage standpoint based on recent history.

Year	1,000 rush yards	1,000 total yards	6-plus total TDs
2009	0	1	2
2008	3	4	7
2007	2	2	2
2006	1	2	5
2005	1	2	3
2004	1	1	2
2003	1	1	1
2002	1	2	3
2001	3	3	3
2000	2	2	4

Like anything else, rookie rushing success is all about opportunity and making the most of it. While a rookie isn't always promised playing time, he is promised to have fresh legs compared to peers at his position. That doesn't hurt things.

Here's a look at the first-year running backs that should be on your radar, listed below based on the opportunities they're expected to receive in 2010.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Drafted into NFL: 12th overall
Fantasy Draft Average: 22nd overall (Round 2)
Keeper Appeal: Very high
Opportunity: Expected to be the Chargers' primary running back. 20 touches per game.
Comparison: LaDainian Tomlinson
Dave's 2010 projection: 1,084 rush yards, 6 rush TDs; 28 rec., 191 rec. yards, rec. TD; three fumbles lost

Jahvid Best, Lions
Drafted into NFL: 30th overall
Fantasy Draft Average: 54th overall (Round 5)
Keeper Appeal: Very high
Opportunity: Should begin season as Lions' primary back, could fend off Kevin Smith for 20-touch role all year.
Comparison: Charlie Garner
Dave's 2010 projection: 940 rush yards, 4 rush TDs; 29 rec., 225 rec. yards, rec. TD; two fumbles lost

C.J. Spiller, Bills
Drafted into NFL: Ninth overall
Fantasy Draft Average: 76th overall (Round 7)
Keeper Appeal: Very high
Opportunity: Expected to play "Reggie Bush" role: Play some at tailback, some as a slot receiver. Also work as kick returner. Around 15 touches per game.
Comparison: Reggie Bush
Dave's 2010 projection: 858 rush yards, 3 rush TDs; 32 rec., 282 rec. yards, 2 rec. TDs; four fumbles lost

Montario Hardesty, Browns
Drafted into NFL: 59th overall
Fantasy Draft Average: 152nd overall (Round 13)
Keeper Appeal: Moderate
Opportunity: Likely to begin season as secondary rusher behind Jerome Harrison. Could land short-yardage/goal-line job easily. Role could grow if he can stay healthy. About 10 touches per game.
Comparison: Jamal Lewis
Dave's 2010 projection: 667 rush yards, 3 rush TDs; nine rec., 59 rec. yards; one fumble lost

Anthony Dixon, 49ers
Drafted into NFL: 173rd overall
Fantasy Draft Average: Undrafted
Keeper Appeal: Low
Opportunity: Likely to earn change-of-pace role behind Frank Gore after strong start to the preseason and the retirement of Glen Coffee. Around five touches per game.
Comparison: T.J. Duckett
Dave's 2010 projection: 331 rush yards, 2 rush TDs; four rec., 29 rec. yards; one fumble lost

Toby Gerhart, Vikings
Drafted into NFL: 51st overall
Fantasy Draft Average: 152nd overall (Round 13)
Keeper Appeal: Low
Opportunity: Backup behind Adrian Peterson and possibly Albert Young due to a slow start in training camp. Around five touches per game.
Comparison: Mike Alstott
Dave's 2010 projection: 317 rush yards, 2 rush TDs; 15 rec., 101 rec. yards

Joe McKnight, Jets
Drafted into NFL: 112th overall
Fantasy Draft Average: Undrafted
Keeper Appeal: Low
Opportunity: Buried on the depth chart behind Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. Might pick up a few touches from week to week while also working on special teams.
Comparison: Dominic Rhodes
Dave's 2010 projection: 181 rush yards, rush TD; nine rec., 62 rec. yards; one fumble lost

Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
Drafted into NFL: 188th overall
Fantasy Draft Average: Undrafted
Keeper Appeal: Medium
Opportunity: Trying to battle for backup job after a solid minicamp, but has struggled in training camp.
Comparison: Tashard Choice
Dave's 2010 projection: 126 rush yards

LeGarrette Blount, Titans
Drafted into NFL: Undrafted
Fantasy Draft Average: Undrafted
Keeper Appeal: Low
Opportunity: Will likely be buried on the depth chart behind Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer. Might end up on the practice squad.
Comparison: Ron Dayne
Dave's 2010 projection: 167 rush yards, rush TD

Deji Karim, Jaguars
Drafted into NFL: 180th overall
Fantasy Draft Average: Undrafted
Keeper Appeal: Low
Opportunity: Buried on the depth chart behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings. Should be a part of kickoff-return job committee.
Comparison: Aaron Stecker
Dave's 2010 projection: 125 rush yards, 11 rec. yards

Ben Tate, Texans
Drafted into NFL: 58th overall
Fantasy Draft Average: 92nd (Round 8) before injury
Keeper Appeal: High
Opportunity: Out for the season with an ankle injury suffered in his preseason debut. Expected to compete for the starting job upon return in 2011.
Comparison: Beanie Wells
Dave's 2010 projection: None

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Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
11:38 AM

News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.

Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012

News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.

Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012

News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."

Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012

News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."

Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012

News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.

Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012

News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."

Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012

News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."

Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012

News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."

Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012

News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.

Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012

News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."

Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings