2010 Draft Prep: Can we expect a Turner turnaround?

Roddy White has a bold prediction about teammate Michael Turner this year. White said in an interview with CBSSports.com that Turner will "have a bounce-back year and hopefully rush for about 1,800 yards and 22 touchdowns."

The bounce-back year is expected, but can he get to that level again?

"He's capable of doing it," White said. "He's the most important aspect to our team."

That would be impressive if Turner reaches those stats, which would equal 312 Fantasy points. By comparison, he would have been the No. 2 running back in standard-scoring leagues last year behind Chris Johnson (328).

Follow us on ...

Get the latest news and analysis from the most informed Fantasy staff in the industry by following us on Twitter and Facebook. @cbsfantasynews facebook.com/cbssportsfantasy

But last year was not good for Turner, who only played in 11 games because of a severely sprained ankle. He still managed 871 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, but we know he's capable of doing more. In 2008, Turner had a career year with 1,699 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns.

The reason for his decline last year could be his workload, since he had 376 carries in 2008. We expected him to suffer a breakdown in 2009 thanks to the "Curse of 370," which was first pointed out by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004. It's a proven theory.

Since 1988 there were 17 times that a running back had at least 370 carries -- Eric Dickerson, Christian Okoye, Barry Foster, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, Edgerrin James, Eddie George, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Curtis Martin, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Emmitt Smith twice, Ricky Williams twice and Turner -- and all declined in production the following season. Nine suffered injuries -- Johnson, Alexander, Martin, Lewis, James, Anderson, Davis, Foster and Turner -- and Williams also had a brief retirement after two consecutive seasons of at least 380 carries, citing wear-and-tear issues.

The question now becomes what happens next for Turner? Can he live up to White's prediction? First, let's start with his health and his ankle heading into 2010.

"I feel pretty good," Turner said in an interview with CBSSports.com following the Falcons-Dolphins third preseason game. "I still have a ways to go. I still have some work to do. Just getting the rust off and getting the kinks out and getting back in the full flow of playing football again."

Turner said last year was "very frustrating," but he's confident he can come back strong. Again, he'll have to fight history to make that happen.

We looked at the running backs who broke down the year after getting 370 carries to see what they did two seasons after. The results weren't exactly favorable. Of the running backs who played in that second year, the average increase in production was only 80 yards and one touchdown from the previous season.

Now, several running backs stepped up in that second year, which is what you should hope for from Turner. Tomlinson saw an increase of five touchdowns from 13 in 2003 to 18 in 2004. George had 226 more rushing yards and seven more touchdowns from 2001 to 2002. Anderson came back from a torn ACL in 1999 to gain 965 more rushing yards and six more touchdowns in 2000. And Smith scored 12 more touchdowns in 1994 (21) than he did in 1993 (nine).

The Falcons plan is to rely on Turner again, and coach Mike Smith indicated they have no intentions of limiting his production. He might not get 350 carries, but Turner should be counted on getting close to 300. That should lead to a big season.

"I have no doubts about that," Turner said. "I just have to stay healthy and be ready to roll. After that everything will come."

Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez agrees with White that Turner is in line for a comeback season.

"He looks better then ever," Gonzalez said after the game against Miami. "With him being out there it makes it easier on all of us."

Fantasy owners are glad Turner is back at 100 percent and hope he can put the "Curse of 370" behind him. We consider Turner the No. 5 running back in standard-scoring leagues, and he's a lock with a first-round pick. Even in leagues where receptions count, Turner should be selected toward the end of Round 1.

He might not reach the level White has predicted for him, but he won't be far behind. A healthy Turner is a productive Turner, and we're expecting him to bounce back in a big way.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Jamey at @jameyeisenberg . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .