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Dave Richard

2010 Draft Prep: Score big with Big Ben

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Rare is the story that breaks down a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. Then again, there haven't been many No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks like this one.

From a talent perspective, Ben Roethlisberger is among the Top 10 in the league at his position. He's a big-bodied, big-armed passer with reliable receiving weapons who plays in an offense that hasn't been shy to put the ball in the air early and often. You'd want him to be your Fantasy quarterback. But because he'll be suspended to start the season due to an off-field incident in Georgia, no one can or should draft him to be their starter.

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Drafting him to be your backup, however, will pay huge dividends.

Let's start with Roethlisberger's average draft position: 116th overall, or just before Round 10 in a 12-team league. That makes him, on average, the 16th quarterback off the board, behind the likes of Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Donovan McNabb. That's a safe estimate on where you can find Roethlisberger, but when you consider that he outproduced each of those quarterbacks last season playing in roughly the same amount of games, you start to realize just how much of a bargain he'll be.

Granted, the Steelers' offense is altered from last year's version. Gone is Santonio Holmes, who is now with the Jets and slated to serve a suspension of his own following an off-field incident. Replacing him is Mike Wallace, who destroyed defenses with the deep ball several times in 2009. While he'll take Holmes' spot, other receivers will be left to fill in as the slot guy for Wallace, including Antwaan Randle El and rookie Emmanuel Sanders, who actually has some Wallace-like qualities. Heath Miller remains at tight end, which is a positive since he caught more than 20 percent of the passes Roethlisberger completed last season. And the run game is still bolstered by Rashard Mendenhall, who has good enough hands to catch passes too, though all elements of the Steelers' offense should be tempered by the offensive line, which is banged up and has playing players out of position before the regular-season gun has gone off. Still, it's clear that Roethlisberger will have good tools to work with in 2010.

Any quarterback with that kind of potential and supporting cast should be on Draft Day wish lists. But what keeps Roethlisberger off said lists is the suspension, which doesn't have a cut-and-dried timeframe. Originally, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell gave Roethlisberger a six-game suspension but said he'd consider cutting it if the quarterback complied with a behavioral evaluation and also stayed in good graces. Roethlisberger has gone above and beyond what's been asked of him and signs point to his suspension being reduced to four games (an official verdict might come following the Steelers' final preseason game).

If that's the case, Roethlisberger would miss the Steelers' first four games and rejoin the team for their Week 5 bye week before presumably playing in Week 6 vs. the Browns. That means he'd be a very sought-after one-week replacement for any quarterback with a bye week from Week 6 on. That would include all three of the elite Fantasy passers out there (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers) as well as Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Matt Schaub. There is no shortage of starting Fantasy passers who could be easily be replaced for a week by Roethlisberger.

And once Roethlisberger makes his fill-in appearance, he can be traded. Naturally this is assuming that someone in your league needs a quarterback and that you're comfortable trading Big Ben away. But at the onset of the season it's perfectly reasonable to draft Roethlisberger with the idea that he'll be a one-week starter who you can trade for roster help.

That's something no other No. 2 Fantasy quarterback can deliver. There are some with potential (Matthew Stafford, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel) and others who are considered known quantities (Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith, Vince Young), but none have the solid statistical track record that Roethlisberger can offer. And none of these guys will fetch as much in trade as Roethlisberger should, either.

Drafting Roethlisberger to be your No. 1

Let's put you in a situation on Draft Day: You land a stud running back in Round 1, stud receivers in Rounds 2, 3 and 4, a second stud running back falls to you in Round 5, a quality receiver falls into your lap in Round 6, another capable rusher ends up on your team in Round 7 and somehow the best tight end on the board is there for the taking in Round 8. Suddenly, it's Round 9 and your team is loaded everywhere -- except at quarterback.

Believe it or not, the case can be made to take Roethlisberger to be your No. 1 option. Is it an ideal avenue for you to travel on Draft Day? Obviously not since he'll be gone for at least the first five weeks of your Fantasy season. But it doesn't mean that it cannot be an option.

First off, which quarterback -- or quarterbacks -- should owners consider starting in Big Ben's place while suspended? Right off the bat you could roll with Byron Leftwich, who is replacing Roethlisberger on the Steelers. Leftwich's four starts come against the Falcons at home, the Titans in Tennessee, the Buccaneers at Tampa Bay and the Ravens at home. Not exactly a cakewalk, but certainly an opening slate that compares favorably to other quarterbacks who aren't being picked regularly as Fantasy starters. Owners could draft Leftwich, then drop him after Week 4 for a passer with a favorable matchup in Week 5. Such quarterbacks you could find off waivers include Sam Bradford (at Detroit), Trent Edwards (vs. Jacksonville) and David Garrard (at Buffalo). Once Week 5 is over, Roethlisberger becomes your starter, and your team frees up a roster spot if you so choose since you won't need a backup quarterback anymore.

A second option is to play the waiver wire for quarterbacks until Roethlisberger is eligible to return. Here's a quick grid of non-obvious quarterbacks with favorable matchups who you could use on a week-to-week basis for the first five games of the season.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
Sam Bradford, STL
vs. Arizona
Sam Bradford, STL
at Oakland
Matt Leinart, ARI*
vs. Oakland
Sam Bradford, STL
vs. Seattle
Sam Bradford, STL
at Detroit
Jake Delhomme, CLE
at Tampa Bay
Jason Campbell, OAK
vs. St. Louis
Donovan McNabb, WAS
at St. Louis
Jason Campbell, OAK
vs. Houston
Trent Edwards, BUF
vs. Jacksonville
Josh Freeman, TB
vs. Cleveland
Matt Cassel, KC
at Cleveland
Alex Smith, SF
at Kansas City
Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
at St. Louis
David Garrard, JAC
at Buffalo
Chad Henne, MIA
at Buffalo
Jake Delhomme, CLE
vs. Kansas City
  Mark Sanchez, NYJ
at Buffalo
Matthew Stafford, DET
vs. St. Louis
Matt Leinart, ARI*
at St. Louis
Josh Freeman, TB
at Carolina
     
Kyle Orton, DEN
at Jacksonville
Donovan McNabb, WAS
vs. Houston
     
Alex Smith, SF
at Seattle
Matt Moore, CAR
vs. Tampa Bay
     
Vince Young, TEN
vs. Oakland
       

Curiously, the name that appears the most on this list is Rams rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, who opens the season with the Cardinals at home, the Raiders on the road, the Redskins at home, the Seahawks at home and the Lions on the road. That's as good as it gets as far as early-season schedules for non-stud quarterbacks. Bradford isn't getting drafted in the majority of leagues, so if you found yourself looking for an early-season starter to pick up the slack while Roethlisberger sits, Bradford is a decent choice.

Ultimately, Roethlisberger won't have 4,000 yards passing or 25 touchdowns this season because four games are being taken away from him right off the bat. But for a guy who averaged over 275 yards passing per game last season, he's certainly a value no matter how you slice it.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

 
 
 
Player News
Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

Kevin Smith
Smith wants return to Lions
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
2/10/2012
News: According to mlive.com, impending free agent RB Kevin Smith would like to return to the Lions in 2012. Smith, 25, re-signed with Detroit last November and had four starts in seven games. He finished the regular season with 72 carries for 356 yards and four touchdowns, plus had 22 receptions for 179 yards and three scores. "In every interview that I've done, even though I'm a free agent, I've referred to the team and me as us," Smith said. "I'm on the Lions roster in my opinion until I'm not on the Lions roster. That says it all."
Analysis: Smith is a former third-round selection by Detroit in 2008. He showed promise as a rookie, gaining 976 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 238 carries. He started 13 games in 2009 before suffering a season-ending injury to his left knee. He rushed for 747 yards and four touchdowns prior to his injury. Smith was phased out of the offense with the arrival of Jahvid Best in 2010. Detroit decided not to make him an offer when he became a restricted free agent after that season. After Best sustained a season-ending concussion last season, Detroit re-signed Smith. We'll find out if he can return to the Lions, who also have second-year RB Mikel Leshoure, who also is recovering from a season-ending Achilles tendon injury sustained in the preseason. Keep an eye on what happens with Smith, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick if he's back in Detroit.

 
 
 
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