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2010 Draft Prep: Score big with Big Ben

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Rare is the story that breaks down a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. Then again, there haven't been many No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks like this one.

From a talent perspective, Ben Roethlisberger is among the Top 10 in the league at his position. He's a big-bodied, big-armed passer with reliable receiving weapons who plays in an offense that hasn't been shy to put the ball in the air early and often. You'd want him to be your Fantasy quarterback. But because he'll be suspended to start the season due to an off-field incident in Georgia, no one can or should draft him to be their starter.

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Drafting him to be your backup, however, will pay huge dividends.

Let's start with Roethlisberger's average draft position: 116th overall, or just before Round 10 in a 12-team league. That makes him, on average, the 16th quarterback off the board, behind the likes of Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Donovan McNabb. That's a safe estimate on where you can find Roethlisberger, but when you consider that he outproduced each of those quarterbacks last season playing in roughly the same amount of games, you start to realize just how much of a bargain he'll be.

Granted, the Steelers' offense is altered from last year's version. Gone is Santonio Holmes, who is now with the Jets and slated to serve a suspension of his own following an off-field incident. Replacing him is Mike Wallace, who destroyed defenses with the deep ball several times in 2009. While he'll take Holmes' spot, other receivers will be left to fill in as the slot guy for Wallace, including Antwaan Randle El and rookie Emmanuel Sanders, who actually has some Wallace-like qualities. Heath Miller remains at tight end, which is a positive since he caught more than 20 percent of the passes Roethlisberger completed last season. And the run game is still bolstered by Rashard Mendenhall, who has good enough hands to catch passes too, though all elements of the Steelers' offense should be tempered by the offensive line, which is banged up and has playing players out of position before the regular-season gun has gone off. Still, it's clear that Roethlisberger will have good tools to work with in 2010.

Any quarterback with that kind of potential and supporting cast should be on Draft Day wish lists. But what keeps Roethlisberger off said lists is the suspension, which doesn't have a cut-and-dried timeframe. Originally, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell gave Roethlisberger a six-game suspension but said he'd consider cutting it if the quarterback complied with a behavioral evaluation and also stayed in good graces. Roethlisberger has gone above and beyond what's been asked of him and signs point to his suspension being reduced to four games (an official verdict might come following the Steelers' final preseason game).

If that's the case, Roethlisberger would miss the Steelers' first four games and rejoin the team for their Week 5 bye week before presumably playing in Week 6 vs. the Browns. That means he'd be a very sought-after one-week replacement for any quarterback with a bye week from Week 6 on. That would include all three of the elite Fantasy passers out there (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers) as well as Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Matt Schaub. There is no shortage of starting Fantasy passers who could be easily be replaced for a week by Roethlisberger.

And once Roethlisberger makes his fill-in appearance, he can be traded. Naturally this is assuming that someone in your league needs a quarterback and that you're comfortable trading Big Ben away. But at the onset of the season it's perfectly reasonable to draft Roethlisberger with the idea that he'll be a one-week starter who you can trade for roster help.

That's something no other No. 2 Fantasy quarterback can deliver. There are some with potential (Matthew Stafford, Chad Henne, Matt Cassel) and others who are considered known quantities (Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith, Vince Young), but none have the solid statistical track record that Roethlisberger can offer. And none of these guys will fetch as much in trade as Roethlisberger should, either.

Drafting Roethlisberger to be your No. 1

Let's put you in a situation on Draft Day: You land a stud running back in Round 1, stud receivers in Rounds 2, 3 and 4, a second stud running back falls to you in Round 5, a quality receiver falls into your lap in Round 6, another capable rusher ends up on your team in Round 7 and somehow the best tight end on the board is there for the taking in Round 8. Suddenly, it's Round 9 and your team is loaded everywhere -- except at quarterback.

Believe it or not, the case can be made to take Roethlisberger to be your No. 1 option. Is it an ideal avenue for you to travel on Draft Day? Obviously not since he'll be gone for at least the first five weeks of your Fantasy season. But it doesn't mean that it cannot be an option.

First off, which quarterback -- or quarterbacks -- should owners consider starting in Big Ben's place while suspended? Right off the bat you could roll with Byron Leftwich, who is replacing Roethlisberger on the Steelers. Leftwich's four starts come against the Falcons at home, the Titans in Tennessee, the Buccaneers at Tampa Bay and the Ravens at home. Not exactly a cakewalk, but certainly an opening slate that compares favorably to other quarterbacks who aren't being picked regularly as Fantasy starters. Owners could draft Leftwich, then drop him after Week 4 for a passer with a favorable matchup in Week 5. Such quarterbacks you could find off waivers include Sam Bradford (at Detroit), Trent Edwards (vs. Jacksonville) and David Garrard (at Buffalo). Once Week 5 is over, Roethlisberger becomes your starter, and your team frees up a roster spot if you so choose since you won't need a backup quarterback anymore.

A second option is to play the waiver wire for quarterbacks until Roethlisberger is eligible to return. Here's a quick grid of non-obvious quarterbacks with favorable matchups who you could use on a week-to-week basis for the first five games of the season.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
Sam Bradford, STL
vs. Arizona
Sam Bradford, STL
at Oakland
Matt Leinart, ARI*
vs. Oakland
Sam Bradford, STL
vs. Seattle
Sam Bradford, STL
at Detroit
Jake Delhomme, CLE
at Tampa Bay
Jason Campbell, OAK
vs. St. Louis
Donovan McNabb, WAS
at St. Louis
Jason Campbell, OAK
vs. Houston
Trent Edwards, BUF
vs. Jacksonville
Josh Freeman, TB
vs. Cleveland
Matt Cassel, KC
at Cleveland
Alex Smith, SF
at Kansas City
Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
at St. Louis
David Garrard, JAC
at Buffalo
Chad Henne, MIA
at Buffalo
Jake Delhomme, CLE
vs. Kansas City
  Mark Sanchez, NYJ
at Buffalo
Matthew Stafford, DET
vs. St. Louis
Matt Leinart, ARI*
at St. Louis
Josh Freeman, TB
at Carolina
     
Kyle Orton, DEN
at Jacksonville
Donovan McNabb, WAS
vs. Houston
     
Alex Smith, SF
at Seattle
Matt Moore, CAR
vs. Tampa Bay
     
Vince Young, TEN
vs. Oakland
       

Curiously, the name that appears the most on this list is Rams rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, who opens the season with the Cardinals at home, the Raiders on the road, the Redskins at home, the Seahawks at home and the Lions on the road. That's as good as it gets as far as early-season schedules for non-stud quarterbacks. Bradford isn't getting drafted in the majority of leagues, so if you found yourself looking for an early-season starter to pick up the slack while Roethlisberger sits, Bradford is a decent choice.

Ultimately, Roethlisberger won't have 4,000 yards passing or 25 touchdowns this season because four games are being taken away from him right off the bat. But for a guy who averaged over 275 yards passing per game last season, he's certainly a value no matter how you slice it.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

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Player News
Robert Griffin III
Griffin to be ready by camp?
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
5/23/2013
News: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan suggested Thursday that quarterback Robert Griffin III has a chance to be ready for the start of training camp. "We're hoping," he said. "He's working extremely hard." Shanahan also said he wouldn't be comfortable starting Griffin without some offseason or preseason work. Griffin was spotted by NFL Network dropping back on passes to receivers while wearing a helmet along with a brace on his right knee on Thursday.
Analysis: It would be incredible for RG3 to be ready to go by late July, less than seven months after getting hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back unless they were convinced he was totally healthy. That seems risky, but for now any positive progress is great for prospective Fantasy owners. Here's a gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Pierre Garcon
Shanahan: Garcon had surgery
Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
5/23/2013
News: Mike Shanahan disclosed Thursday that wide receiver Pierre Garcon had chest surgery this offseason, but the Washington Times clarified it as a minor procedure on his labrum, which is in the shoulder . It appears Garcon is not a candidate to miss any serious playing time, however. "I think he's really unbelievable. He's come back so fast ..." Shanahan said of his receiver. "lifting weights he shouldn't be able to lift."
Analysis: Garcon is also still battling a toe injury that capsized much of his first year in D.C. As long as he's healthy for the start of the season he's got plenty of upside to offer Fantasy owners. Garcon finished last year averaging 14.4 yards per catch, the second-highest average in his career, but he had a four-year-low 44 receptions with a three-year-worst four scores. Staying healthy is obviously the most important thing he can do to keep him relevant in Fantasy Football but one recurrence of the toe injury could wipe out several games. If he can stay upright -- and assuming quarterback Robert Griffin III is healthy with his knee -- Garcon can be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

James Casey
Casey has knee surgery
James Casey, TE, PHI
5/23/2013
News: USA Today reports that Eagles tight end James Casey will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out loose cartilage his right knee and will be out of action for the rest of the spring. A team spokesman said Casey should be ready to go by the start of training camp. Casey signed a three-year deal with $14.5 million as one of the first additions for the Eagles in a busy opening few days in free agency. The former Texans fullback/tight end is expected to play a key role in coach Chip Kelly's offense.
Analysis: Casey had career-highs with 34 receptions, 330 yards and three touchdowns last year, numbers that could spike with the Eagles because of the expected design of the offense and the up-tempo style that will result in more snaps. Like any player getting used to Kelly's offense, Casey would surely benefit from more reps through the rest of organized team activities and minicamp, so being sidelined for the next month isn't ideal. Still, if all goes as well as planned, Casey should get plenty of time on the field in July and August as long as he's healthy. He's not worth drafting in most leagues, but Casey is someone to monitor as a potential waiver wire addition if he's fine as expected following this procedure.

Peyton Manning
Manning to CBS: My arm is stronger
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
5/23/2013
News: In an exclusive Q&A with CBSSports.com NFL Columnist Pete Prisco, Peyton Manning admitted to being nervous about his arm as far back as June 2011 when he had a hard time throwing at all, then again last season when he forced some things in a road game at Atlanta. But a year removed from rehabbing his arm, Manning sounds confident in his skills. "I feel much more comfortable than I was last year. I am stronger than I was last year. I am throwing the ball better now in May of 2013 than I did in May of 2012 -- significantly better," he said. "I got better throughout the season. I am not doing the monthly update reports anymore. I am past that."
Analysis: The Broncos will attempt to move into a more up-tempo approach this season and added Wes Welker to an already stacked receiving corps. Manning should be in for a very good season, perhaps even better than the one he had last year. Manning is a candidate for 300 yards and at least two scores every week. He should be considered an elite passer worth a pick between the middle of Round 2 and the end of Round 3, depending on your league's size and scoring system.

Trent Richardson
Richardson misses practice
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
5/23/2013
News: Browns coach Rob Chudzinski comfirmed running back Trent Richardson missed practice Thursday with a lower leg muscle pull. "It's precautionary," Chudzinski said. "We are holding him out. He may miss minicamp in a week and a half. I'm not sure, we'll just take it day-by-day."
Analysis: The Browns can't take chances with their prized running back, particularly since he'll be featured in an offense that will lean heavily on him. Richardson established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league last season with 267 carries for 950 yards with 11 touchdowns and another 51 catches for 367 yards and a score. He should be able to better those stats this season as long as he's healthy. You're taking him with a Top 5 pick.

Wes Welker
Welker expects catches to drop
Wes Welker, WR, DEN
5/23/2013
News: The Denver Post reports that new Broncos receiver Wes Welker doesn't expect to reach his average for receptions, which was 112 over the past six seasons with the Patriots. "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker said. "(The catches) are not the goal," Welker said. "The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I've got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that." The report says that in New England, the Patriots don't feature their outside receivers. In recent years, they have become a tight end-slot attack. Not so the Broncos. For all the questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength last year, he threw enough outside the numbers to help Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop into one of the NFL's top receiver tandems. "I mean, we have two really good guys. We can't ignore them," Welker said. "If one guy is catching 112 balls, the defense is focusing in on that guy. We want defenses focusing on everybody and having to worry about everybody. That was one of the main reasons I came here."
Analysis: Now, before you downgrade Welker, keep in mind it's not like the plan calls for him to go from 112 catches to 50. Manning won't forget his friends, but he won't ignore the new guy, either. Welker's Fantasy value definitely takes a hit going from New England to Denver, but he remains a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 4 or 5 in standard leagues. In PPR formats, look for Welker to be drafted as early as Round 3 since he should still be around 85-plus catches despite the drop-off with the Broncos.

Percy Harvin
Harvin to get time at running back
Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
5/23/2013
News: The Seattle Times reports that new Seattle receiver Percy Harvin is already making an impact. "His talent level is unbelievable, off the charts," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "He brings an explosive mentality to the game, which a lot of our guys already have. But to have him is truly tremendous. He's a guy that's been one of the best football players in the National Football League for the past several years." Harvin, 24, has averaged 1,800 total yards in four seasons and was on pace for 2,400 yards in 2012 — which would have led the NFL — before an ankle injury ended his season. In those nine games, he had 62 catches — 12 more than any Seahawk — for 677 yards. He also had 96 yards rushing and 574 yards on kickoff returns, including a 105-yard touchdown return. The Seahawks plan to use him similarly. He'll likely line up in the slot as his regular spot, but figures to get used outside, as well, and should see his share of handoffs and kickoff returns. "I'll be moving around — pretty much all around," said Harvin. "There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."
Analysis: We're excited about Harvin in Seattle because he should be able to remain highly involved on offense with better talent around him. Harvin remains a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he's worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, especially if he continues to see time in the backfield.

Randall Cobb
Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
5/23/2013
News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.
Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Ryan Williams
Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
5/23/2013
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Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Michael Crabtree
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Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
5/23/2013
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Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

 
 
 
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