2010 Draft Prep: Foster is steal of the summer

When training camps began in late July, Texans running back Arian Foster was either a late-round flier or a guy everyone passed on for 15-plus rounds straight. Obviously, he went a little low back then.

When camps were in full swing Foster was working with the first-team offense just as he had in the spring, but everyone figured it would be a matter of time before he'd get bumped by rookie Ben Tate. Still, he figured to be a contributor, so he was going as a late-round pick in every draft. It was still too low.

After the Texans' first preseason game at the Cardinals, when Tate's season ended thanks to a severe ankle injury, Foster began gaining some steam. He still was slated to share carries with Steve Slaton, making it a two-headed backfield in Houston, but he became a desirable option in Fantasy. Owners were grabbing him with mid-round selections. It was still too low.

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Now, Foster has completed three preseason performances, all with the first-team offense. In 28 carries he's put up 169 yards (a 6.0 rushing yard average) with two touchdowns. And just for good measure, he's put up six catches for 31 yards. Save for one fumble against the Saints, he's been perfect, and the Texans' staff is enamored with him. As such, Fantasy owners have begun taking him as high as Round 5.

Still too low.

Here's the truth: No one is really challenging Foster for playing time in Houston. Yeah, Slaton is there and he's still got value as a receiver out of the backfield, but there is absolutely no denying that Foster is capable of taking on any role the Texans ask of him. He could see as many as 20 touches a week and should easily get 15. He's more than talented enough to plunge for touchdowns as well as pick up some receptions. He's everything you look for in a running back who gets taken within the first 30 picks of a draft. So why is he slipping to Round 5?

One reason in particular is that he's an unknown. We've heard of Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai and so on. Some would just assume that if you're talking Foster and drafts that you're talking about beer, not Fantasy Football. The guy has nearly as many career preseason carries as regular-season carries.

But consider this: Many are fawning over Chargers rookie running back Ryan Mathews. Some believe he's worth a first-round pick. Yet, here's a player who has yet to play a single NFL down on a team that's expected to pass the ball just as much as the Texans. Foster hasn't played much but he's proven to be the goods in the limited time he's had (216 rush yards, three rushing touchdowns and 26 receiving yards in the Texans' last two games last season), that's more of a track record than anything Mathews has delivered. Why, then, are people breaking down doors for Mathews and yawning over Foster, especially when they have essentially the exact same skill set? This isn't to say that Foster should be picked ahead of Mathews, but he should most definitely be in the neighborhood.

Another issue for why people pick over Foster is because many owners were frustrated with the Texans' coaching decisions with their running backs in 2009. Slaton started the season as a primary running back, but he lost the job when he fumbled early in a game at Buffalo -- Ryan Moats took over and crushed the Bills. But Moats didn't keep the job long, and soon enough the two of them were sharing with veteran Chris Brown. And none of them could hold on to the football! Even Foster fumbled once early in a game at St. Louis and got pulled for it. The Texans ended 2009 as the 30th-ranked run offense in the league, and that's part of the reason why Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson had the years they did (the Texans had the best passing offense in the league). The Texans ran the ball 425 times and threw 593 times -- it wasn't by accident, but the lack of a consistent run attack hurt a lot of Fantasy owners.

Foster could throw a wrench in the plans to keep the Texans a pass-heavy offense. So long as he's effective between the tackles, a world of pressure will be lifted off Matt Schaub's shoulders, and the coaches would love to have a good run game to rely on, which has effectively been missing in Houston since they entered the league in 2002. As an example of how valuable a reliable rusher would be for them: the Texans averaged 26.2 rushes per game last season but only fielded a ball carrier with 20 or more carries in a game three times: once by Slaton (Week 4 vs. Oakland), once by Moats (Week 8 at Buffalo) and once by Foster (Week 17 vs. New England). Again, you can't help but think that would have been different had the Texans gone to Foster sooner in the season.

And now they will be. Nothing is in the way of Foster getting the work and playing in a dynamic offense that has one of the better offensive lines in the league working for it. Plus, motivation will be high for the young man on a number of levels -- Foster is scheduled to be an exclusive rights free agent after the season, which means he could cash in with a good performance. That never hurts anything.

Think of it -- Foster's in line for a good chunk of the Texans' rushing touchdowns (who else is going to get in the game near the goal line?), not to mention a good amount of carries from week to week (again, Slaton's not going to get involved). Is it too much to think of Foster as a 1,000-yard rusher? How about a 1,200 total-yard running back? And, are those numbers too low? If they are, or even if they aren't, isn't he worth more than a fifth-round pick?

Lots of questions, but just one answer: Foster will finish the season better than wherever you draft him this summer. If you are fortunate enough to land him in Round 5, then you're making off with a steal. But if it's Round 4 or even Round 3 in a deeper league and you're looking for a solid running back, Foster is a player you can expect big things from this year.

So in a sense, he's still a sleeper -- he'll still play better than the backs who go around him in late-summer drafts.

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