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Dave Richard

Fantasy & Reality: Sit studs in Week 1?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


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Drafted Ray Rice or Michael Turner with your first round pick? Too bad!

Got Shonn Greene before the end of Round 2 or Pierre Thomas before the end of Round 4? D'oh!

Thought you stole LeSean McCoy? [Insert sound of The Price Is Right losers horn here.]

If it's football season, then it's Fantasy season. And if it's Fantasy season, then it's time for agonizing lineup decisions. And guess what? We're not wasting any time.

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Rice faces the Jets in New York in the same game where Greene does battle with the Ravens. Turner returns to action in the running back-unfriendly confines of Pittsburgh. McCoy and Thomas are at home, but they'll rumble against the Packers and Vikings, respectively. Bet you're glad you drafted them!

Honestly, you should be glad you drafted them. Week 1 might be nasty but when Turner plays Tampa Bay or Rice plays Cleveland (and they'll each play them twice over the next five months) you'll be giddy. But that doesn't change the fact that each of these running backs -- and some of their offensive counterparts -- could get off to a rough start.

This begs the question: Do you ever sit the guys you drafted to be your starters in the first week of the Fantasy season?

On the surface, you shouldn't. Benching a top running back for the first week of the season makes the pick you spent for him look like a waste. And no one likes wasting draft picks.

But what if you drafted Cadillac Williams (vs. the Browns), Ronnie Brown (at the Bills), Matt Forte (vs. the Lions), Jerome Harrison (at the Buccaneers) or a Cardinals running back (at the Rams)? There's no denying that those ball carriers have solid matchups and could bring home 100 total yards and a touchdown. Saying the same for the bunch we started this column doesn't exactly roll off the tongue when considering their opponents.

I'll take you back to Week 1 of last season. Forget about what we know now about the seasons these running backs had and just check out these results:

Chris Johnson at the Steelers: 15 carries, 57 yards; one catch, 11 yards
Steve Slaton vs. the Jets: nine carries, 17 yards; three catches, 35 yards
Larry Johnson at the Ravens: 11 carries, 20 yards; one catch, 6 yards
Matt Forte at the Packers: 25 carries, 55 yards; no catches

Mike Bell vs. the Lions: 28 carries, 143 yards
Cedric Benson vs. the Broncos: 21 carries, 76 yards, one touchdown; four catches, 32 yards
Julius Jones vs. the Rams: 19 carries, 117 yards, touchdown; two catches, 19 yards
Ray Rice vs. the Chiefs: 19 carries, 108 yards; two catches 12 yards

A year ago, both Johnsons, Slaton and Forte were considered reliable Fantasy starters while Benson, Bell and Rice weren't lineup locks -- Julius Jones was an afterthought. But if you had played the matchup over the stud, you would have had better results. That's not always typical, of course -- players with dream matchups very often deliver as disappointing numbers as guys you wouldn't touch in tough matchups.

The case can be made to bench Rice, Turner and the others. It's obvious -- they have tough matchups against a defense at full strength at the start of the season. Two questions arise: Who else could you start in their place? And, Can you live with yourself if you make a mistake?

You're never a bad owner for making an educated lineup decision, but benching Turner for someone like Leon Washington or Correll Buckhalter is ridiculous. You're benching just to bench and it's foolish. Evaluate the backup running backs you have and determine if they have a chance to do as well as the starter they'd be replacing.

If you're just not comfortable benching a guy you drafted with the intention of starting rain or shine, then don't think twice about it. There's no better time to make a lineup error than in Week 1.

Personally, I think the potential that Turner, Rice, McCoy and Thomas bring to the field makes them difficult to pass on. A bad day for someone like Rice is 100 total yards. But if there was one guy out there who I'd strongly consider to start over all of these guys, it's Cadillac Williams. At home against the Browns, whose front seven is pretty unimpressive right now, is about as good as it will get for him. The Bucs organization certainly wants to prove that they're a strong team (even though nobody is picking them to do anything this season), and the commitment they made to Williams after releasing Derrick Ward might warrant justification. Williams scored four total touchdowns in his last four games last season and has done nothing but look healthy and spry this preseason. It's not a reach to expect him to pick up where he left off.

Annual predictions

Typically, this exercise has been my special way of putting myself out there for everyone to point and laugh at. Am I a glutton for punishment? Eh, probably. So laugh away.

• 12 quarterbacks will throw for over 4,000 yards this year, only three fewer than the number of 1,000-yard rushers.

• Larry Johnson will surprise people with the Redskins. Remember, Mike Shanahan is a running back developer and L.J.'s been a favorite project of his this offseason.

• Cedric Benson will be good but not phenomenal. Carson Palmer is one of those potential 4,000-yard passers and the Bengals will throw more than run.

• Speaking of Bengals, if you anticipate 2009 totals for Terrell Owens in 2010, you're on the money.

• Over/under of games Steven Jackson plays this year: 13. I'd take the under. Back injuries plus inexperienced quarterback plus unimproved offensive line equals a banged up running back.

• A prediction for 2011: The Lions will be a trendy preseason playoff pick based on their improved 2010 season.

• Deepest of deep, deep sleeper receivers: Jordan Shipley, Roscoe Parrish, Josh Cribbs and Harry Douglas. What do they have in common? They'll all specialize in the short-area passing game and be given chances to make plays in the middle of the field.

• In fact, look for more middle-of-the-field passing this year compared to previous years. With the umpire moving into the offensive backfield for 53 minutes of every game, teams will find ways to attack that area without having an umpire there. That should spell good news for tight ends.

• When I see Jermichael Finley I see a younger version of Antonio Gates. And I see a tight end that Aaron Rodgers is going to lean heavily on this season. Which means, I see a guy with 1,000-yard potential.

• Derek Anderson becoming the starting quarterback for the Cardinals did little to change my opinion on Larry Fitzgerald. Anderson has had one good year where he was the byproduct of an over-aggressive passing offense led by a very smart offensive coordinator. He's done bupkis since then and won't remind anyone of Kurt Warner this year. Which means, Fitz is still a one-year bust.

• I also annually predict how the NFL will shake out. Last year I did a fairly good job, correctly predicting six division winners and getting relatively close with my Super Bowl pick of Chargers-Vikings.

As you may or may not know, as part of my preparation before each season, I predict the outcome of every game (just wins or losses). That in turn creates division winners and wild-card teams, and I finish the job and predict the playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl. This is also a process that helps me determine which teams have good schedules, so I think it's a necessary step.

Here we go ...

AFC East: Jets (11-5)
AFC North: Bengals (12-4)
AFC South: Colts (14-2)
AFC West: Chargers (12-4)
AFC wild card: Ravens (11-5)
AFC wild card: Titans (10-6)

I can hear the Patriots fans, including with my editorial director, yelling at me already ...

NFC East: Cowboys (12-4)
NFC North: Packers (13-3)
NFC South: Falcons (13-3)
NFC West: 49ers (13-3)
NFC wild card: Saints (11-5)
NFC wild card: Giants (10-6)

And I can hear the Vikings fans and their horns, too ...

Super Bowl XLV prediction: Packers vs. Colts

Yeah, I know you're hearing this one everywhere, but I've had mine on the board in my office since July. So I'm pretty confident in this one, and you know what that means: the Patriots and Vikings will play for Lombardi's trophy in February.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

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Player News
Kellen Winslow
Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012
News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."
Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.
Jamaal Charles
Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012
News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.
Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.
Hakeem Nicks
Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012
News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.
Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012
News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."
Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.
Sam Bradford
Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012
News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."
Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.
Matt Hasselbeck
Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012
News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."
Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.
Brandon Lloyd
Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012
News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."
Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.
Ronnie Hillman
Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."
Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.
Jacob Tamme
Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."
Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.
Stephen Hill
Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012
News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.
Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.
 
 
 
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