Fantasy & Reality: Time to go to market
Buy low, sell high.
Doesn't matter if we're talking the stock market, baseball cards, antiques or Fantasy Football, the adage is true and simple.
For instance, if someone mentioned in his column two weeks ago to seek out Dwayne Bowe via trade or waivers and you listened, you got him at a low value and now have yourself a Fantasy receiver anyone would want. One could even suggest trading Bowe for a capable running back or quarterback if so desired. Buy low, sell high.
Going the other way doesn't work so well. Like for example, the columnist who thought he wisely traded Dustin Keller and a future draft pick (keeper league) for Dallas Clark. So for a promising tight end who I thought I was dealing at his highest value, I got, ultimately, an open roster spot.
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Getting guys off of waivers is obviously important, but making deals are what can put a contending Fantasy team over the top. And if your league is like my leagues, everyone is bunched together and not many teams are completely out of it. So unless your roster is chock-full of talent, you should be looking to make a move.
Below is our list of Buy Low and Sell High candidates. Keep in mind that this list only includes players whose values are weak or inflated and doesn't take all players into consideration (for example, the Dolphins' remaining schedule is terrible for their running backs, but neither Ronnie Brown nor Ricky Williams are "sell high" candidates). Additionally, every single one of our "Buy Low" candidates has a favorable schedule down the stretch and every single one of our "Sell High" candidates will have it tough.
Buy Low
Quarterbacks
Matt Cassel, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez: In the case of Cassel and Sanchez, think of them more like a prospective backup who you can turn to in a pinch if your starter (ahem, Tony Romo) goes down. Sanchez should come especially cheap right now and has only a scary Week 15 matchup at Pittsburgh left. As for Flacco, he's been up and down and right now owners who have him and another passer would likely deal him heading into his bye week. Again, if Romo or someone like Jay Cutler has capsized your Fantasy season, dealing cheap for Flacco now and picking up a one-week replacement is a smart call.
Running backs
Felix Jones, Marion Barber, Thomas Jones, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles: Why Stewart? Well, DeAngelo Williams has a foot sprain that the Panthers seem comfortable with, but if he aggravates the injury then Stewart will see a lot of work against mostly weak run defenses. Lynch has been effective so far but has nowhere to go but up, and that same kind of thinking also goes for Felix Jones and Mathews. Again, all three of those backs have great slates ahead and could easily fall into 15-touch roles on a week to week basis.
Wide receivers
Danny Amendola, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Williams, Mike Williams: It remains to be seen who will end up being the Rams' top receiver. Two weeks ago it was Danario Alexander, last week it was Amendola -- but whoever it is will enjoy some very favorable matchups the rest of the way, and Sam Bradford can only improve. Fitzgerald wishes he had a quarterback like Bradford, but at least his receiving corps is getting healthier and that combined with matchups that suggest plenty of passing for Arizona should yield some decent stats. If you can get Fitzy to be your No. 2 or even No. 3 receiver you'll be happy. As for the Williamses, both are the clear-cut No. 1 receivers on their respective teams, and even though neither has a great quarterback throwing to them, at least they're hogging the targets. Seattle's Williams is slightly more appealing than the Bucs' Williams if only because he's not a rookie and might not fade late in the season.
Sell High
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick: In this instance, we're not saying to trade these guys no matter what, but we are saying that if someone offers a nice package for them, don't immediately discount the idea. Rodgers' next good matchup isn't until Week 13 against the 49ers and at the rate the Packers are getting hurt, he could find himself with a further depleted receiving corps -- or on the sideline. Same thing goes for Vick, who lasted three games before getting crunched on a run, forcing him out for several weeks.
Running backs
Cedric Benson, Ahmad Bradshaw, LeSean McCoy, Ryan Torain: If you believe in matchups, these guys could be in for some trouble. Again, in the case of Bradshaw and McCoy you shouldn't be looking to unload unless a great deal is there. Remember, we're selling high. Both could provide a spark for the rest of the season but there's a chance both have had their best games already. Benson might not be setting the world on fire, but this is Fantasy Football and someone in your league probably needs a running back. Plus, he has been underwhelming and could start losing touches to Bernard Scott sooner than later. Torain is handling the Redskins' rushing workload but he could lose reps when Clinton Portis comes back and also has that history of knee injuries that we've alluded to before.
Wide receivers
Greg Jennings, Terrell Owens, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward: Let's say you have one or more of these guys and also have Brandon Lloyd or Kenny Britt or any other receiver who you picked up off waivers and has been playing well for you. You can afford to move the bigger name to help your team elsewhere.
Remember, deal players from a position you're strong at to teams who need the help. That kind of simple thinking makes trading easy. Why try to trade someone Knowshon Moreno if they already have Adrian Peterson and Ahmad Bradshaw at running back? Instead, try to deal Moreno to the team starting Jahvid Best and Brandon Jackson -- and expect to get more for him from that team, too.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: The Bills will get chewed up like a hot wing at the Ravens. I was really, really impressed with Chan Gailey's playcalling and Ryan Fitzpatrick's play. Both men were fearless, and their constant attacking of Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb (who the Patriots picked on for part of their game last week) helped them stay alive in the game. And how about one sack allowed by the Bills' offensive line? I have news for you: Fitzpatrick has had at least 24 Fantasy points in each of his three starts and is here to stay. He cannot be discounted as "that Buffalo quarterback" in a negative tone any longer. The guy is putting up stats.
Reality: Jon Kitna is just as good of a replacement for Tony Romo as anyone else. Lose Romo? Go get Kitna, who has a strong (and rested) arm and should be lights out against the lowly Jaguars' secondary in Week 8. Kitna might be 38 years old, but he has two 4,000-yard seasons under his belt (as recently as 2006 and 2007) and is now at the controls of an offense full of talent. If he produces to 80 percent of what Romo was giving you, be happy.
Fantasy: Ryan Mathews will play like a No. 1 running back. I can't count on him anymore, which is a shame because the guy is averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the year and had a string of four games with at least a 5.0 yard per rush average snapped. Mathews simply isn't getting the work. Earlier this year he was splitting reps with Mike Tolbert, and last week Darren Sproles began to get involved out of the backfield. If you adjust your expectations to Mathews getting around a dozen touches per week without any goal-line work, you won't be disappointed. But then again, you won't expect much. Maybe the Chargers are saving his legs, but it's more likely that the Bolts will lean on Philip Rivers instead of the run game, just as they did in 2009.
Reality: Brett Favre must sit. In his last three games, all with Randy Moss, Favre has four interceptions and four fumbles lost. If it were David Garrard, Vince Young or even Michael Vick, they'd get benched. But because it's Favre and because the Vikings backed up the Brinks truck to pay him, he's going to stay in as long as his elbow tendinitis and fractured left ankle let him. But I can't help but wonder how this offense would perform if Tarvaris Jackson -- a quarterback I happen to think is good -- took over.
Fantasy: Beanie Wells is a lost cause. Don't give up on Wells yet. He had the touchdown last week at Seattle and is sure to continue to get a lot of work after Tim Hightower's fumble and subsequent benching. He's got a good matchup at home against the Bucs in Week 8, too.
Reality: Week 7 was the perfect example of why you must watch Fantasy Football Today every Sunday. Not everyone likes to read cross-promotional stuff, so I apologize in advance. But had you been watching Fantasy Football Today, our Sunday morning pregame show (the best one on the web in my unbiased opinion), we had exclusive reports that Darren McFadden was starting for the Raiders and that Kenny Britt was likely to sit for the first quarter. We also recommended Thomas Jones, Todd Heap and Johnny Knox as starts and Philip Rivers, Michael Crabtree, Donald Driver and Roy E. Williams as sits. Just don't remind us about Donovan McNabb, Steve Smith (North), Chris Ivory, Ryan Mathews, Beanie Wells or Robert Meachem. Such is life. Bottom line: Fantasy Football Today is the most informational, fun show you could watch to better your team Sunday mornings. See you Sunday at 11 a.m. ET.
Parting Shots
• Waiver-wire DSTs for Week 8: Arizona (vs. Tampa Bay), Kansas City (vs. Buffalo -- yes, I know about the Ravens last week), St. Louis (vs. Carolina), Washington (at Detroit).
• Some might say the Broncos quit in their game against the Raiders in Week 7, but one thing was evident: Oakland can flat-out run the ball. One huge improvement was left tackle Jared Veldheer, who was a beast on running plays. He's a big reason why the Raiders were so effective whether he played left tackle or center (he switched during the game). He's also part of the reason why Jason Campbell was upright and without an interception.
• More Broncos: I don't know much about Cassius Vaughn, but my guess is that he won't be a part of the Broncos' pass defense much longer.
• Even more Broncos: Remember when Josh McDaniels did that whole pump-fist march after beating the Patriots at home last year? Yeah, he's 5-13 since that game.
• So much Broncos that you're gonna be sick: I noticed that while the 49ers are already in London preparing for their game in Week 8, the Broncos won't leave until Thursday. Does that cut into their preparation time on the field? Off the field? Will they make the players sleep on the airplane? Will it make them less acclimated to their surroundings and being on Western European Time instead of Mountain Time? As far as competitive advantages go in a game between two teams with a combined three wins, I give a big edge to the 49ers.
• Jeff Fisher can rest easy knowing that he can turn back to Vince Young as his starter. Kerry Collins had some really iffy moments in the first half against the Eagles.
• Andy Reid is making the right call on Michael Vick over Kevin Kolb, which is good. Some coaches wouldn't go back on their word like this, but as he did when he surprisingly named Vick his starter before Week 3, he's going with the guy who can best help his team win. That's what it's all about.
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .
