Dear Mr. Fantasy: Sense of Fantasy urgency
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A lot can change in two weeks.
Take Kyle Orton. Two weeks ago, he was coming off a three-touchdown, 347-yard performance against the Rams. He had scored over 15 Fantasy points in every game but one and over 30 in two of his last three. He was the league leader in passing and a Fantasy darling, the kind of player you'd start regardless of matchups.
He was on top of the world -- or on top of the Fantasy rankings, anyway. Only Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers had outscored him at the quarterback position.
But that was two weeks ago.
Since then, he's completed 40.6 percent of his passes, scoring a grand total of zero -- yes, zero -- Fantasy points.
You would have been better off starting Joe Webb.
Orton's worst came in his last start, when he had less than 200 passing yards for the third time all season, no touchdown passes for the second time all season, and more than one interception for the first time all season, finishing with three.
And oh yeah, he did it against the Cardinals, who rank 30th in total defense.
Not even a coaching change can explain that. The Orton of two weeks ago would have made the Cardinals secondary look like it wasn't even there, racking up yardage and touchdowns as he single-handedly led his Fantasy owners to victory. The Orton of today ... well, no one knows what he's capable of, really.
He's a complete wild card at a time when certainty matters more than ever. One wrong move could end your season, and Orton couldn't have been more wrong over the last two weeks.
So should you start him? That's not even worth discussing. The bigger dilemma is how far you should go to avoid starting him.
Well, Kyle Orton got me here, and now he's tanking. The playoffs start this week, and luckily, he didn't cost me a spot. I need to know if I should stick with who got me here or go with my backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'm leaning toward Fitzpatrick, but I could also put in a claim for Kerry Collins, who appears to have favorable matchups over the next two weeks. I've been playing for 12 years now and have been to the championship game several times, but I've never won. Help! -- Max Harker, San Antonio
SW: I wish I could, Max, but unfortunately, I don't have an easy answer for you. You should obviously avoid Orton if you can. You could maybe dismiss his performance at Kansas City two weeks ago as an off week against a playoff contender, but for him to struggle so much at Arizona, something must be wrong. And I'm not sure it'll become right under interim coach Eric Studesville.
Josh McDaniels had his shortcomings as a coach -- his record speaks for itself -- but perhaps he didn't get enough credit for his handling of the playbook. He did guide the best offense of all time -- the 2007 Patriots -- let's not forget.
But no matter how much we all doubt Orton's ability to regain his earlier form, he's not suddenly the worst quarterback in Fantasy. You have to have an adequate replacement before you can replace him, and I'm not sure you do.
Granted, there was a time when Fitzpatrick looked like an advisable Fantasy option, but after back-to-back games in which he threw for less than 200 yards, that time has passed. Hard to see him righting the ship against the Dolphins' sixth-ranked pass defense.
Collins and Jason Campbell will get some attention as sleepers this week. Both are coming off multi-touchdown games and are facing defenses that rank in the bottom five against the pass. But do you really want to put your Fantasy fate in their hands? Big performances from them are always a surprise, so you shouldn't necessarily expect them to take advantage of the good matchups. The Titans and Raiders both still prefer to run the ball. Maybe the matchups will allow them to do just that.
Any chance you could get Jon Kitna off the waiver wire? Josh Freeman? Anyone worthwhile? No?
Well then, by process of elimination, you pretty much have to stick with Orton and hope for the best. Hey, maybe he'll prove just how little we all know. He still has the same weapons and playbook at his disposal; he and the Broncos just need to make better use of them.
I need to know which two running backs to start in the playoffs this week. Who should I choose between Steven Jackson (vs. Chiefs), Cedric Benson (vs. Browns), LeGarrette Blount (vs. Lions) and Ryan Torain (at Dallas)? -- Cam Hamilton
SW: Jackson and Benson are the big-name players, but Blount and Torain excite me more. Perhaps a compromise is in order here.
I don't think you can afford to stray from Jackson. His lack of touchdowns is frustrating, but he's such a consistent source of rushing yards, averaging 88.6 over his last nine games, that even one touchdown would make him a guaranteed game-breaker. And it's not like the Chiefs are especially tough against the run.
Benson is a different story. He hasn't been so reliable on the ground, only once topping 70 rushing yards in his last five games. Plus, the Browns have allowed only four rushing touchdowns all season. Maybe that's a fluke -- they rank 23rd against the run -- but when you have a tough call like this, it's worth taking into account. Benson gained only 60 yards on 15 carries against them in Week 4.
Pure instinct tells me to start Torain coming off his 172-yard performance against the Buccaneers, but in the interest of not doing anything stupid, I'm going to exercise a little self control. He hadn't played in five weeks. We still don't know how the Redskins plan to use him from one week to the next or how he'll respond when opposing teams game plan for him. Plus, he could get hurt again. Too much could go wrong for him for you to trust him over those other options.
Blount didn't have the big game everyone expected him to have at Washington last week, but at least he's a proven commodity, having contributed in Fantasy for several weeks in a row now. That game against the Redskins was a little closer than expected. Blount should have more of an opportunity for garbage yardage this week.
So there you have it: Jackson and Blount. I only wish it was as easy as I made it sound.
Would you start Vincent Jackson, Derrick Mason or Hines Ward as your second wide receiver? What about at tight end: Kevin Boss or Owen Daniels? -- Keith Lessner
SW: Really? We still have to talk about Jackson? Didn't his two-catch, 29-yard performance last week convince you people once and for all that the Chargers won't make him a priority in the passing game? Enough other options have emerged in his absence -- particularly Malcom Floyd -- that the Chargers don't have to force the issue with him. And they won't.
Between Mason and Ward, I'd go with Mason, who has emerged as Joe Flacco's preferred red-zone target with five touchdown receptions over his last six games and has a better chance of contributing in a potential shootout against the Saints than Ward does against Darrelle Revis and the Jets.
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As for your predicament at tight end, I feel pretty good about Daniels going forward, as crazy as it sounds. I realize he has yet to score a touchdown this season, but he had a season-high 91 yards on five catches last week and could play a bigger role in the passing game going forward. Joel Dreessen kind of warmed up the tight end position for him, averaging 55.0 receiving yards and scoring two touchdowns in the five games Daniels missed with a hamstring injury. True, Boss has been even more productive than that, scoring four touchdowns in his last six games, but with less than 30 receiving yards in three of his last four, he's too hit-or-miss for my liking.
I can't decide whether to start Michael Vick against the second-ranked pass defense of the Giants or Matt Ryan against the 30th-ranked pass defense of Seattle. I notice Vick is higher in your quarterack rankings, but I don't understand why. Any help is greatly appreciated. -- Bob Sund, Chicago
SW: Why? Because Vick transcends matchups -- that's why. He's the perpetual mismatch -- a wrecking ball to the usual game plan -- so you almost have to throw the numbers out the window when setting your lineup. The Giants didn't have much of an answer for him in Week 11, giving up 258 passing yards and 34 rushing yards to him. Granted, he's had better games than that, but the point is this matchup shouldn't make you run in fear.
As for Ryan, his consistency speaks for itself. He's never a bad start, so you could certainly justify starting him over Vick if you preferred to go that route. But I have a feeling Ryan is the one more likely to have a down game. The Seahawks defense is just as bad against the run as the pass, so if the Falcons jump out to an early lead, Ryan may not need to pass much, as was the case last week at Carolina. The Eagles-Giants game should be a close one, making Vick a factor throughout.
If I were you and I had relied on Vick all season, I wouldn't get cute now. Ryan may come with a few more assurances, but you wouldn't want to risk missing out on one of Vick's game-breaking performances, especially when you're facing elite competition.
I'm the top team in the playoffs and have a tricky situation. I have stellar running backs, but every week, the one on my bench is the one that goes nuts. Which three of these four would you start this week: Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis and BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- Bill Baker, Redford, Mich.
SW: You're overthinking this one, Bill. You're better off going on cruise control and letting the numbers take care of themselves.
You have three top-five running backs in Peterson, Hillis and McFadden. Rarely do Fantasy owners find themselves in such a favorable position. The ones who do are almost always close to being undefeated heading into the playoffs.
Oh, look at that: You're the top team.
Yes, I understand Rice and Green-Ellis are also "good." Rice was a first-round pick coming into the season, and Green-Ellis has five touchdowns in his last four games. But neither comes with the assurances of the other three, who have the potential to carry your team any given week.
Why would you risk benching someone who could single-handedly win you the game?
True, Rice and Green-Ellis sometimes outscore Peterson, Hillis and McFadden, but who cares? You have three of the top five running backs in Fantasy Football. If just two of them play up to their potential, you'll win. Of course, you never know which two will be the two, so choosing to sit one puts you at risk of sitting the wrong one. Just stick with the three, provided they're healthy and not playing the Steelers, and you'll be fine.
Will you be perfect? Of course not. But you're trying to win games, not set records.
Aaron Rodgers is my starting quarterback. My options to replace him are Josh Freeman, Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna and Jay Cutler. I'm leaning toward Cutler because he plays on Monday night. If Rodgers is a game-time decision Sunday night and doesn't play, I'll still have someone on my bench to replace him. What do you think? -- Ryan Soper, Vancouver, Canada
SW: I wouldn't want to get stuck starting Cutler right now. Yeah, he's had a few more productive games recently, but when he's bad, he pretty much destroys your chances of winning. And he's bad far too often for me to place my fate in his hands.
I suppose if you genuinely believe Rodgers has a good chance of playing Sunday night, you could go with Cutler strictly as an insurance policy, but as things stand now, I consider Rodgers a long shot. Sunday's concussion was his second of the season, making it even more dangerous than the first, and coach Mike McCarthy said the team won't take any chances with its franchise player. Frankly, Rodgers would be crazy not to sit. He plans to have a life after football, I presume.
Just to avoid the uncertainty, I'd be content going with Kitna. He's averaging 21.8 Fantasy points over his last five games and doesn't have a particularly intimidating matchup against the Redskins. True, a healthy Rodgers would have a higher ceiling than Kitna, but if you end up having to start Cutler, as you probably will, you have only a coin flip's chance of getting anything worthwhile out of the position.
I need to sit one of Brandon Jacobs, Darren McFadden and LeGarrette Blount at running back and one of Mike Williams (Buccaneers) and Pierre Garcon at wide receiver. Who should I sit? -- Peter Haden
SW: After talking him up as a top-five Fantasy running back, I obviously can't tell you to sit McFadden, not that you'd want to against a Broncos defense that ranks 31st against a run. He might carry your team. I don't have the same high hopes for Blount after he disappointed last week at Washington, but again, the Buccaneers will likely use him to run out the clock in a lopsided affair against the Lions.
My choice to sit, in clear defiance of the numbers, is Jacobs. Yes, I realize he has three touchdowns in his last two games. Yes, I realize he ran for more than 100 yards in each of those games. Yes, I realize he's averaging 8.5 yards per carry over his last three games. But I don't care. I just don't trust him.
Part of the problem is that high yards-per-carry average, which is just as much a testament to his lack of carries as his surplus of yardage. He hasn't had 15 carries in a game all season. Granted, he has cut into Ahmad Bradshaw's carries a little more in recent weeks, but he's still part of a 50-50 split at best. The Giants have had the luxury of running more than usual in recent weeks. They might not be so lucky against a high-scoring Eagles team on Sunday. And even if Jacobs gets his usual number of carries, he can't average 8.5 yards with them forever. His recent production is a mirage. Too much could go wrong with him for me to pass on steady options like McFadden and Blount.
As for your wide receivers, I think we can safely say the luck has turned around for Garcon. He's now getting targeted both in and out of the end zone, making him a weekly threat to score a touchdown in the Colts' prolific passing attack. He's a safer bet than Williams, who's averaging 34.3 yards over his last three games.
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