Jan. 19, 2011

What to make of the Pats in Fantasy in 2011?

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

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The NFL is a copycat league, and Jets coach Rex Ryan might have found the answer to solving all these dynamic passing attacks. Just drop everyone into coverage.

Through the first two weeks of the playoffs, the Jets have used six defensive backs at times with minimal blitzing against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The results were mixed from a statistical standpoint, with Manning passing for 225 yards and one touchdown and Brady getting 299 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. You'd be happy with Brady's 21 Fantasy points in a standard league, but you expect much more from these two passers.

You have to wonder if defensive coordinators around the NFL might go the same route in 2011. Now, most teams don't have the luxury of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie at cornerback, but we might see more coverage like this as teams try to slow down the elite quarterbacks.

What does this mean for Fantasy owners? Well, not much right now until we get to training camp and find out if any teams will use similar formations. Keep in mind that most offensive coordinators will run the ball against a defense like this, which could help Fantasy running backs next year. Just watch what the Steelers and Rashard Mendenhall do this week against the Jets if Ryan uses a similar defense.

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Fantasy owners should still go after the top quarterbacks early, and in our recent mock draft we had six quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds (Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Brady) and 10 quarterbacks taken in the first 38 picks (Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman). That will happen a lot in Fantasy drafts in 2011.

On a side note, I also made a recent change in my 2011 rankings at quarterback with Rodgers moving ahead of Vick for the No. 1 spot. I love Vick's upside with his rushing and passing totals, but his contract and injury risk are a slight concern. Rodgers just continues to improve, and he's safer at the top spot. For more on this, click here.

Playoff stockwatch

Throughout the playoffs we will monitor players whose Fantasy value is rising or falling as a result of their postseason performance. What happens in the playoffs could determine where a player is drafted in Fantasy leagues in 2011.

Three on the rise ...

Jay Cutler, Chicago
Divisional Round stats: Completed 15 of 28 passes for 274 yards and two touchdowns and had eight carries for 43 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle.
Analysis: Fantasy owners may never trust Cutler as a must-start Fantasy quarterback, and for good reason. He's too inconsistent. Cutler had seven games with at least 22 Fantasy points during the regular season and eight with 15 or less. He also had one 300-yard passing game in the regular season, which was Week 1 against Detroit. Still, it's good to see him post a dominant performance against a weak opponent like Seattle, and if he finishes the playoffs strong, that could help his outlook in 2011. He will likely get drafted as a No. 2 Fantasy option with a mid-round pick, but when he's on his game Cutler can be a solid quarterback in all leagues.

Shonn Greene, New York Jets
Divisional Round stats: Had 17 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown at New England.
Analysis: Here we go again with Greene. Last year, he had a tremendous playoff run with 54 carries for 304 yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games. This year, Greene is at it again with 36 carries for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Colts and Patriots. We'll find out if the Jets plan to keep LaDainian Tomlinson and what role he'll play in 2011, but hopefully Greene can use this playoff run as momentum for next season. He was a tremendous disappointment in 2010, but Fantasy owners can draft him as a No. 3 option this year with the chance for him to have a rebound season. The key will be Tomlinson and if he returns.

James Jones, Green Bay
Divisional Round stats: Had four catches for 75 yards and a touchdown at Atlanta.
Analysis: Jones now has two touchdowns in his past two playoff games, and he's becoming someone Rodgers can trust in big spots. He's a free agent this offseason, but the Packers would be smart to keep him in Green Bay since he's passed Donald Driver as the second-best receiving option behind Greg Jennings. Including the playoffs, Jones closed the season with four touchdowns in his past five games. He also set new career highs during the year in catches, yards and touchdowns and has the potential to be a No 2 Fantasy wide receiver in 2011.

Three on the decline ...

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
Divisional Round stats: Completed 26 of 46 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns at Chicago.
Analysis: Hasselbeck was great in the playoffs with 530 passing yards, seven touchdowns and one interception against the Saints and Bears, but he's set to become a free agent this offseason and might not be a starter again. Hasselbeck was miserable during the season with 3,001 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and 60 rushing yards, three touchdowns and five fumbles. He only had three games with more than 19 Fantasy points and five games with 10 points or less. You might consider drafting Hasselbeck as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback depending on where he plays in 2011, but chances are this was his last hurrah to produce at a high level in the NFL.

Aaron Hernandez, New England
Divisional Round stats: Had one catch for 4 yards against the Jets.
Analysis: A hip injury ruined the end of the season for Hernandez and likely slowed him in his lone playoff appearance, but you have to be concerned if he can become a starting Fantasy tight end in 2011. The ability is there, and he proved it in the regular season with 45 catches for 563 yards and six touchdowns, but the Patriots will continue to rely on Rob Gronkowski as well. And Gronkowski posted better Fantasy stats in 2010 with 42 catches for 546 yards and 10 touchdowns. We love Hernandez's upside, but he's better suited as a No. 2 Fantasy option with a late-round pick. Gronkowski should be considered a No. 1 tight end, and he should be drafted well ahead of Hernandez.

Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta
Divisional Round stats: Had one catch for 7 yards against Green Bay.
Analysis: Gonzalez has hinted at retirement, but we expect him to return in 2011. Still, at 35, you have to wonder how much he has left to offer after a down season with 70 catches for 656 yards and six touchdowns. His catches were the fewest since 2003, and his yardage was the lowest since 1998. We still consider Gonzalez a No. 1 Fantasy tight end when healthy, but he's toward the end of the Top 10 now. Even in the playoffs, Greg Olsen, Heath Miller and Todd Heap outperformed Gonzalez in the divisional round with all three scoring touchdowns. If you still want to draft Gonzalez next year then do so with a late-round pick, but don't reach for him when the run on tight ends start, which is usually around Round 4.

Playoff Challenge

If you've been following this column through the first two weeks of the playoffs you know that my team in the Fantasy Playoff Challenge at CBSSports.com has fallen apart. Losing the Patriots has hurt my roster, and now I'm stuck with two empty spots at tight end and kicker. It's not pretty.

I'm left with two Chicago players in Matt Forte and the Bears, and now I'm going all in on the Packers since I already had Rodgers and Jones. With my final two transactions, I replaced BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Wes Welker with James Starks and Greg Jennings, respectively. I now have 150 points, but I'm down 35 in our CBSSports.com staff group.

Here is my roster for Championship Sunday:

QB – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - 80
RB – Matt Forte, Chicago - 47
RB – James Starks, Green Bay - 2
WR – Greg Jennings, Green Bay - 44
WR – James Jones, Green Bay - 21
TE – Rob Gronkowski, New England - 25
K – Shayne Graham, New England - 17
DST - Bears - 29

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Jamey at @jameyeisenberg . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

Wallace would 'most definitely' consider new team
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
2/22/2012

News: In an interview with SiriusXM NFL Radio on Wednesday, wideout Mike Wallace spoke candidly about possibly signing with a new team if the Steelers do not give him the franchise tag this offseason. Wallace is scheduled to be a restricted free agent and will at least receive a first-round tender offer from the Steelers, which means a team willing to part with a first-round pick can sign him to an offer sheet. When asked if he would consider signing with the 49ers or Patriots, two teams with late first-round picks and a need at receiver, Wallace said: "Most definitely. Those are the two true playoff-caliber teams who I think that the right person and right piece to those guys will put them over the top. All they need is one more piece to any one of those puzzles on both sides of those teams. So most definitely, they're Super Bowl contenders. If I were to consider going somewhere else, those would definitely be two teams ... I wouldn't want to go anywhere and leave the situation where I'm at where I have a great quarterback and a great organization and go somewhere where I don't feel like I can succeed."

Analysis: Wallace went on to drive two points home: He feels as though he deserves a wealthy contract, and that he wants to play for a winner. The Niners and Patriots qualify, as do 2011 playoff teams like the Texans, Ravens and Bengals, all of whom have late first-round picks and an interest in improving their receiving corps while weakening the Steelers. Not many restricted free agents change teams, but the circumstances in Pittsburgh favor Wallace because the Steelers don't have a lot of cap room to allot to Wallace. Fantasy owners have come to rely on Wallace as a low-end No. 1 option but keep in mind that if he does sign a long-term deal, he will not be in a contract year in 2012, which is what he would be if he were franchised or signed to a one-year tender offer by the Steelers. It's going to get interesting starting around March 5.

No tag expected for Stevie
Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
2/22/2012

News: The Bills and wide receiver Steve Johnson are "far apart" on a contract extension and might be allowed to test free agency. The Buffalo News claims a league source told them that Johnson is not expected to receive the franchise tag. Meetings between Johnson's representatives and the Bills are scheduled for during the NFL Combine.

Analysis: Johnson just made it to 1,004 yards in 2011 with seven touchdowns, so he proved that his smashing 2010 campaign wasn't a fluke while also proving that he's not an elite NFL receiver. There could be some risk in drafting Johnson this summer in that he'll get a nice contract extension and might only be as good as he was this past season. Treat him like a No. 2 Fantasy wideout but not one worth reaching for in drafts this summer. Expect him to be taken between Rounds 5 and 7.

Finley gets two-year deal
Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
1:01 AM

News: Green Bay signed tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year deal on Wednesday, reportedly worth around $15 million. Finley posted career-best numbers in 2011, catching 55 passes for 767 yards. He also caught eight touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers.

Analysis: Finley did have three scores in one game last year, but the fact he's one of Rodger's favorite targets is a good sign. Only four times in 2011 did he have 10 or more Fantasy points in a game. Finley is an attractive No. 1 tight end who can be had between Rounds 5 and 6 in drafts this summer.

Sounds like CedBen's done in Cincy
Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
2/22/2012

News: Cedric Benson appeared on SiriusXM NFL Radio Tuesday night and expressed his unhappiness with where he stands with the Bengals. The running back is slated to be a free agent but told the station he has not heard from his team yet this offseason about returning. This comes on the heels of offensive coordinator Jay Gruden saying that he'd "like to have all our guys back." Benson is miffed not only with the team's silence but also with how their offense, under Gruden, worked in 2011. "I just think we didn't stick with what the offense was built on," Benson said. "Since I've been there the past four years we've ran the football to try and win games. Even when we had Carson (Palmer) and Chad (Ochocinco), we still kept a strong identity in the run game. I just feel we got away from it. We didn't let that part of the offense grow the way it could have."

Analysis: Someone should tell Benson that the reason why the offense changed gears in 2011 was because of great young talents A.J. Green and Andy Dalton, not to mention a decline in production from Benson himself. Benson's carries dipped under 300 for the first time in three seasons while his rushing yardage fell for the third consecutive season. He also caught just 15 passes for 82 yards over the course of the year, a notable drop-off from 2010. Benson scored six touchdowns but only once in the Bengals' final five regular-season games (he also scored once in the Bengals' first five regular-season games). We suspect Benson, who will turn 30, is done in Cincinnati, which means he might wind up elsewhere as a secondary back. Don't expect much from him in 2012; think middle- to late-round pick if that happens.

Freeman: Ward might still retire
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/22/2012

News: Despite publicly stating that he has no plans to retire, Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward is still considering the option according to CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman. Ward, who pleaded guilty Wednesday to reckless driving and no contest to a charge of failing to maintain lane as part of a plea deal in Georgia, has said he's willing to take a pay cut to stay with the Steelers and has expressed an interest in continuing his career.

Analysis: The Steelers have yet to make a decision on Ward but if they cut him loose it might be hard for the veteran to find a new team much less a prominent role in an offense.

Battle ready for free agency
Jackie Battle, RB, KC
2/22/2012

News: Chiefs RB Jackie Battle becomes a free agent in March and he’s looking forward to testing the waters. "They (Chiefs) said they wanted me back, but I was going to just see what my options were before I made that decision," Battle said on SiriusXM NFL Radio. "I don't know what their strategy is, but I'm going to go out there and look around a little bit."

Analysis: Battle had taken over as Kansas City's primary running back after All-Pro Jamaal Charles went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. Battle ran for 597 yards and two touchdowns this season but didn't make a good impression while doing it. He is likely to land a backup role to Charles next season if he remains with the Chiefs. Fantasy owners should bother with him.

Jennings: Flynn will be 'outstanding'
Matt Flynn, QB, GB
2/22/2012

News: Packers receiver Greg Jennings didn't catch many passes from Matt Flynn over their time together in Green Bay but knows he'll be a good quarterback when given the opportunity. Flynn is expected to sign with a new team this offseason and at least have the chance to compete for a starting job. "Matt's going to be an outstanding quarterback in this league," Jennings told USA Today. "He's gotten a lot of attention because of his output in the games he's had. It goes deeper than that. The way he's prepared himself. The way he's handled the situation of being the backup wasn't typical. He approached every game as I saw Aaron do: As a starter. As if Aaron was not going to play and he was going to lead us to a win. What everyone saw in that Detroit game was a guy who prepared himself physically and mentally as though he was a starter."

Analysis: Flynn hasn't played much while Aaron Rodgers has shined, but when he has played he's been nothing short of fantastic: In his last two starts vs. the Lions this year and at the Patriots in 2010 he totaled nine touchdowns, 731 passing yards and two interceptions. Smart money is on Flynn landing in Miami with former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin now serving as head coach; if that happens then he'll be worth drafting late as a No. 2 Fantasy QB.

Shurmur: We can win with Colt
Browns, TQB CLE,
2/22/2012

News: Browns coach Pat Shurmur told the News-Herald of Northern Ohio that he has not given up on quarterback Colt McCoy. "I think it's fair to say (McCoy) has some things he has to improve on," Shurmur said. "They're quantifiable, whether it's footwork, a better feel for the progressions, a better feel for the targets he's throwing to. I think all that is refined when you have an offseason (program) to help. ... I think he can be very good if he plays at a high level like I think he can and makes the improvements he can to help us put the ball in the end zone [to] win football games. I'm expecting that he will. The thing that's encouraging to me is he a guy you know is going to work at it."

Analysis: We don't buy it. McCoy was essentially handed the starting job with the Browns last year and completed 265 of 463 passes for 2733 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 starts. With the Browns getting the chance to improve at quarterback this offseason, we think McCoy might wind up as the backup in Cleveland. If that happens, then it makes sense that Shurmur speaks glowingly about his passer. We'll see what happens, but McCoy shouldn't be on your Fantasy radar unless in deep leagues that start multiple quarterbacks.

Cowboys to part ways with two LBs?
Bradie James, ILB, DAL
2/22/2012

News: Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones hinted that linebackers Keith Brooking and Bradie James might be done with the team. "Bradie and Brooking are two of the best leaders, personalities I have ever had the pleasure of being around," he said Tuesday according to the Dallas Morning News. "They're great guys. Unfortunately, all good things come to an end. That's what we've got to decide. But no one respects those guys more than we do, our family does, than the Cowboys do. Obviously when you make a decision to continue or discontinue, it is a big one."

Analysis: Both James and Brooking admitted before the end of last season that they figured their time with the Cowboys was up. Both had 50 or fewer total tackles last season and are likely going to get phased out because of their age and declining skills.

Clausen a cap casualty in Carolina?
Jimmy Clausen, QB, CAR
2/22/2012

News: The Charlotte Observer reports that the Panthers might waive QB Jimmy Clausen to save just over $900,000 in salary cap space. Clausen has been replaced by Cam Newton as the starting quarterback in Carolina.

Analysis: Clausen didn't play at all in 2011 and has dim prospects for 2012.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings