What to make of the Pats in Fantasy in 2011?

Senior Fantasy Writer

Jan. 19, 2011

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The NFL is a copycat league, and Jets coach Rex Ryan might have found the answer to solving all these dynamic passing attacks. Just drop everyone into coverage.

Through the first two weeks of the playoffs, the Jets have used six defensive backs at times with minimal blitzing against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The results were mixed from a statistical standpoint, with Manning passing for 225 yards and one touchdown and Brady getting 299 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. You'd be happy with Brady's 21 Fantasy points in a standard league, but you expect much more from these two passers.

You have to wonder if defensive coordinators around the NFL might go the same route in 2011. Now, most teams don't have the luxury of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie at cornerback, but we might see more coverage like this as teams try to slow down the elite quarterbacks.

What does this mean for Fantasy owners? Well, not much right now until we get to training camp and find out if any teams will use similar formations. Keep in mind that most offensive coordinators will run the ball against a defense like this, which could help Fantasy running backs next year. Just watch what the Steelers and Rashard Mendenhall do this week against the Jets if Ryan uses a similar defense.

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Fantasy owners should still go after the top quarterbacks early, and in our recent mock draft we had six quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds (Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Brady) and 10 quarterbacks taken in the first 38 picks (Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman). That will happen a lot in Fantasy drafts in 2011.

On a side note, I also made a recent change in my 2011 rankings at quarterback with Rodgers moving ahead of Vick for the No. 1 spot. I love Vick's upside with his rushing and passing totals, but his contract and injury risk are a slight concern. Rodgers just continues to improve, and he's safer at the top spot. For more on this, click here.

Playoff stockwatch

Throughout the playoffs we will monitor players whose Fantasy value is rising or falling as a result of their postseason performance. What happens in the playoffs could determine where a player is drafted in Fantasy leagues in 2011.

Three on the rise ...

Jay Cutler, Chicago
Divisional Round stats: Completed 15 of 28 passes for 274 yards and two touchdowns and had eight carries for 43 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle.
Analysis: Fantasy owners may never trust Cutler as a must-start Fantasy quarterback, and for good reason. He's too inconsistent. Cutler had seven games with at least 22 Fantasy points during the regular season and eight with 15 or less. He also had one 300-yard passing game in the regular season, which was Week 1 against Detroit. Still, it's good to see him post a dominant performance against a weak opponent like Seattle, and if he finishes the playoffs strong, that could help his outlook in 2011. He will likely get drafted as a No. 2 Fantasy option with a mid-round pick, but when he's on his game Cutler can be a solid quarterback in all leagues.

Shonn Greene, New York Jets
Divisional Round stats: Had 17 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown at New England.
Analysis: Here we go again with Greene. Last year, he had a tremendous playoff run with 54 carries for 304 yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games. This year, Greene is at it again with 36 carries for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Colts and Patriots. We'll find out if the Jets plan to keep LaDainian Tomlinson and what role he'll play in 2011, but hopefully Greene can use this playoff run as momentum for next season. He was a tremendous disappointment in 2010, but Fantasy owners can draft him as a No. 3 option this year with the chance for him to have a rebound season. The key will be Tomlinson and if he returns.

James Jones, Green Bay
Divisional Round stats: Had four catches for 75 yards and a touchdown at Atlanta.
Analysis: Jones now has two touchdowns in his past two playoff games, and he's becoming someone Rodgers can trust in big spots. He's a free agent this offseason, but the Packers would be smart to keep him in Green Bay since he's passed Donald Driver as the second-best receiving option behind Greg Jennings. Including the playoffs, Jones closed the season with four touchdowns in his past five games. He also set new career highs during the year in catches, yards and touchdowns and has the potential to be a No 2 Fantasy wide receiver in 2011.

Three on the decline ...

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
Divisional Round stats: Completed 26 of 46 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns at Chicago.
Analysis: Hasselbeck was great in the playoffs with 530 passing yards, seven touchdowns and one interception against the Saints and Bears, but he's set to become a free agent this offseason and might not be a starter again. Hasselbeck was miserable during the season with 3,001 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and 60 rushing yards, three touchdowns and five fumbles. He only had three games with more than 19 Fantasy points and five games with 10 points or less. You might consider drafting Hasselbeck as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback depending on where he plays in 2011, but chances are this was his last hurrah to produce at a high level in the NFL.

Aaron Hernandez, New England
Divisional Round stats: Had one catch for 4 yards against the Jets.
Analysis: A hip injury ruined the end of the season for Hernandez and likely slowed him in his lone playoff appearance, but you have to be concerned if he can become a starting Fantasy tight end in 2011. The ability is there, and he proved it in the regular season with 45 catches for 563 yards and six touchdowns, but the Patriots will continue to rely on Rob Gronkowski as well. And Gronkowski posted better Fantasy stats in 2010 with 42 catches for 546 yards and 10 touchdowns. We love Hernandez's upside, but he's better suited as a No. 2 Fantasy option with a late-round pick. Gronkowski should be considered a No. 1 tight end, and he should be drafted well ahead of Hernandez.

Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta
Divisional Round stats: Had one catch for 7 yards against Green Bay.
Analysis: Gonzalez has hinted at retirement, but we expect him to return in 2011. Still, at 35, you have to wonder how much he has left to offer after a down season with 70 catches for 656 yards and six touchdowns. His catches were the fewest since 2003, and his yardage was the lowest since 1998. We still consider Gonzalez a No. 1 Fantasy tight end when healthy, but he's toward the end of the Top 10 now. Even in the playoffs, Greg Olsen, Heath Miller and Todd Heap outperformed Gonzalez in the divisional round with all three scoring touchdowns. If you still want to draft Gonzalez next year then do so with a late-round pick, but don't reach for him when the run on tight ends start, which is usually around Round 4.

Playoff Challenge

If you've been following this column through the first two weeks of the playoffs you know that my team in the Fantasy Playoff Challenge at CBSSports.com has fallen apart. Losing the Patriots has hurt my roster, and now I'm stuck with two empty spots at tight end and kicker. It's not pretty.

I'm left with two Chicago players in Matt Forte and the Bears, and now I'm going all in on the Packers since I already had Rodgers and Jones. With my final two transactions, I replaced BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Wes Welker with James Starks and Greg Jennings, respectively. I now have 150 points, but I'm down 35 in our CBSSports.com staff group.

Here is my roster for Championship Sunday:

QB – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - 80
RB – Matt Forte, Chicago - 47
RB – James Starks, Green Bay - 2
WR – Greg Jennings, Green Bay - 44
WR – James Jones, Green Bay - 21
TE – Rob Gronkowski, New England - 25
K – Shayne Graham, New England - 17
DST - Bears - 29

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Garrett: Murray tweaked hamstring
DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
12:59 PM

News: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told the media Tuesday running back DeMarco Murray tweaked a hamstring over the last week. The team opted to be conservative with him and had him sit out practice on Tuesday. Murray was spotted on the sidelines during the Cowboys' first day of OTA workouts.

Analysis: Murray's injury history goes a long way back -- and the Cowboys know it. Keeping him healthy will be a tough chore for the next several months but taking careful, proactive steps like this will keep him from being absent. His health will remain key as he's missed nine games over his first two seasons in the league and has had the injury bug biting him going back to his high school days. But Murray had 10-plus Fantasy points in half of his 10 games last season and has the confidence of the coaching staff. He's a moderately risky No. 2 Fantasy running back expected to get taken between 25th and 40th overall on Draft Day.

Amendola gets to work with Brady
Danny Amendola, WR, NE
5:16 PM

News: The media got to check out the Patriots' second day of OTA workouts in New England. The Boston Globe reports new Pats wideout Danny Amendola spent a lot of time with Tom Brady, working primarily in the slot. According to the Patriots' official website Amendola looked sharp, ran his routes well and got in and out of his breaks quickly. He appeared comfortable which shouldn't be surprising given his past work in Josh McDaniels' offense. "It's familiar," Amendola said. "When Josh was in St. Louis, I got to know it pretty good. It's a little more intricate out here. It's something to grasp. I'm learning every day. It's the verbiage. That's the most important thing, the vocabulary of the offense. I'm learning, day in and day out, studying at night."

Analysis: Amendola is vitally important to the Patriots' offense after the team let Wes Welker go in free agency last year. It's tough to expect Amendola to completely replace Welker in their scheme but he has the potential to be a major factor if he can stay healthy. That's a big if -- he's missed 20 games over the last two seasons. So long as you accept Amendola as an injury-risk who doesn't have the experience of being a volume receiver like Welker, you'll be fine. Amendola is safest as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a pick in Round 7 or 8.

MJD's training moves to Miami
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
10:59 AM

News: Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley confirmed that running back Maurice Jones-Drew will step up the intensity in his workouts in Miami with noted trainer Pete Bommarito. MJD is working his way back from a Lisfranc injury. Bradley is fine with the move because he and Jones-Drew are on the same page with where the running back is at, according to the Florida Times-Union. Bradley especially wanted Jones-Drew in camp while the team installed the offense. "It’s going to take some time and it should come back," Bradley said of Jones-Drew's injured foot. "We're just taking the next step in the rehab process."

Analysis: Expectations remain MJD will be ready for the start of training camp in July and potentially be on the field for a June minicamp. Fantasy owners need to see him before drafting to have some level of confidence in his game. The injury he suffered is a tough one to come back from. On the plus side, Jones-Drew had at least 1,600 total yards in each of his previous three seasons before 2012 when he held out of training camp and ultimately got hurt after six games. Some will be afraid to draft the 28-year-old but most owners should go ahead and consider Jones-Drew a Top 15 running back for now, making him worth a pick between 20th and 30th overall in drafts assuming he is a full participant in Jags camp. That seems to be on pace to happen.

Uninfected Gronk has surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
8:51 AM

News: Rob Gronkowski had successful surgery on his left forearm Monday and doctors found no infection inside according to multiple reports. He had a new plate installed in his arm to keep things in place inside his forearm and should be done having surgery there. A consultation on his back is expected within the next three to four weeks with surgery to potentially follow.

Analysis: Great news! Unless there's a setback with the arm or a serious issue with his back Gronkowski should be ready for the start of training camp. That makes him a safer pick in Fantasy Football since he'll have the time to get ready for the season and potentially play 16 games. We're not out of the woods yet but be ready to consider Gronk with a Top 20 pick in drafts this summer.

Romo out until minicamp
Tony Romo, QB, DAL
8:37 AM

News: The Dallas Morning News reports Tony Romo had a cyst removed from his back and will be out until at least Cowboys minicamp in June. He should be fine for training camp. "If this was the regular season and I had to play next week, I could," Romo said. "This is just about being smart. That’s why I did it now. This will have no effect on training camp. No way will it have an impact. And I still think there’s a good chance I’m on the field for minicamp."

Analysis: Romo isn't a quarterback anyone is targeting on Draft Day, he's more like a passer you'll settle for starting in Round 6. There's nothing wrong with that: Romo was one of 10 quarterbacks to average over 20 Fantasy points per game (in standard formats) and has consistently put up big numbers, albeit not amazing numbers. Fantasy owners can win with Romo as their starter.

Miller works with first team
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA
5:36 PM

News: The Miami Herald reports that Dolphins running back Lamar Miller opened with the first team during Tuesday's OTA workout. The report says Miller "showed his usual good burst." Daniel Thomas and Marcus Thigpen got work behind Miller.

Analysis: Miller is expected to start for the Dolphins this year, and he should enter training camp as a potential No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a pick as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues. He recently said his goals for the season were 1,500 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. We hope he can live up to his words because he could be a special Fantasy option if that happens.

Bolden misses OTA workouts
Brandon Bolden, RB, NE
5:18 PM

News: The Boston Globe reports running back Brandon Bolden was absent from OTA practice Tuesday after spraining his ankle while training. He's expected to return in late May/early June.

Analysis: Bolden is expected to be buried on the depth chart behind starter Stevan Ridley, among others. He's unlikely to help Fantasy owners in 2013 so long as Ridley is healthy.

Taylor has hernia surgery
Jamar Taylor, CB, MIA
5:08 PM

News: Dolphins rookie cornerback Jamar Taylor had surgery to repair a hernia and will cost him up to three weeks of practice time. He's a candidate to be back for a June minicamp and should be OK for the start of training camp.

Analysis: Taylor was impressive at the Senior Bowl and certainly erased any concerns about his overall athleticism with a stellar performance at the combine. Taylor is a better all-around player than former Boise State standout Kyle Wilson, who was selected by the Jets 29th overall in 2010. But since he's a corner, he has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in most standard IDP leagues, and he's only worth a late-round pick in rookie-only IDP formats.

Goodson will plead not guilty
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5:07 PM

News: The Newark Star-Ledger has learned Jets running back Mike Goodson will plead not guilty to drug and weapons charges stemming from a mid-May arrest. His lawyer is confident jail time will be avoided. A hearing is scheduled for June 12.

Analysis: Goodson is taking in Jets workouts from the sideline, a sure sign that his roster spot is up in the air. Between the courts and the league there's no guarantee that Goodson will play for all of the 2013 season. For now owners shouldn't have him on their radars, though if his attorney is as innocent as he suggests, that would change before the majority of people hold their Fantasy drafts.

Giants remain confident with Cruz
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
1:51 PM

News: USA Today reports that Giants chairman Steve Tisch remains confident a deal with receiver Victor Cruz is coming soon. "We're talking. (Cruz's agent) Tom Condon is talking to (Giants general manager) Jerry (Reese) and I'm personally confident that Victor wants to be a Giant, will be a Giant," Tisch said. "He's a great guy. It's just taking its time." The report says Cruz and the Giants have made some progress but a deal isn't imminent, despite a report from the New York Post stating the sides were at the "2-yard line." At this point, it seems they're barely in the red zone, but things could change as the spring winds down. Cruz has yet to sign the tender he was extended as a restricted free agent that would pay him $2.879 million. The Giants could lower the rate to $630,000 if Cruz hasn't signed by June 17, but that might only strain the negotiations.

Analysis: We hope that Cruz is signed prior to training camp because we don't want to see a potential holdout. Continue to monitor what develops, and if Cruz signs on time then he would remain a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick as early as Round 4. If he ends up holding out then his value will decline.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings