Unlucky 13: Players who aren't worth it

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All of us would love to be overpaid. That's human nature. But the reality is that most of us are paid what's fair, and there's virtually no room to complain.

The NFL's owners are on the brink of forcing a work stoppage that could impact the NFL's 2011 season. They believe that all of the players' salaries are unfair based on their teams' cumulative finances and subsequent profits. That's obviously bad news for everyone who plays, but it's double-trouble for the handful of players due especially large salaries in 2011.

Teams are more fiscally concerned than ever and balancing a budget -- be it with a salary cap or not -- is vital to the bottom line of every franchise. Any player earning more than what his bosses think he's worth is on the chopping block. That's typically the case every season, but with the NFL's owners concerned about their cash flow now more than ever, teams can't afford to overpay anyone.

Here are 13 players with inflated base salaries, according to the NFL Players Association who might have to either restructure their contracts or risk being released (and signed to a new team) before the start of the 2011 campaign.

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys
2011 salary: $4.25M
Chance of restructure/release: 60 pct.
We thought that last year would spell the end of Barber in Dallas as Felix Jones and later Tashard Choice rose to some prominence. But Barber led the squad in rushing touchdowns (four) and averaged almost 10 touches per game when he was active. There's a sense that Jason Garrett liked Barber more than Choice when the season started, and now that Choice didn't impress in 2010, he could opt to hang on to Barber even though he's expensive. What's important is that the Cowboys narrow their prospective Fantasy stud rushers from three to two -- if it means Barber stays, that still helps us out come Draft Day.
Prediction: Barber settles on an extension to stay in Dallas.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints
2011 salary: $11.8M
Chance of restructure/release: 100 pct.
Bush followed up his Super Bowl campaign with an awful season: One touchdown, one game with over 100 total yards and one fractured leg (along with another injury suffered in the playoff loss that's not believed to be serious). His 2010 salary? $8 million, so you can be sure the Saints will look to save some cash with Bush. What helps the running back is that the offense has a spot tailor made for him to succeed as past seasons prove. But if he is impeded by the leg and knee injuries suffered over the last two years, the Saints will look elsewhere (including re-signing Lance Moore) to replace their former first-round pick.
Prediction: Bush bolts the Saints for a better contract and a reunion with Pete Carroll with the Seahawks.

Donald Driver, WR, Packers
2011 salary: $4.1M
Chance of restructure/release: 60 pct.
The Packers see the future with James Jones and Jordy Nelson. Both young receivers had more yards through the air than Driver during the regular season and Jones had more touchdowns. Driver is still a good possession receiver, and perhaps he restructures his deal to finish his career in Green Bay. But the Packers have big aspirations and Driver had two big games out of the 15 he played in. The 12-year veteran could be on the move, be it to a lesser role with the Packers or to a new team.
Prediction: If the Packers don't keep him, and if he doesn't retire, he takes a one-year deal to finish his career in his hometown of Houston.

Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens
2011 salary: $6M
Chance of restructure/release: 90 pct.
McGahee played a big role with the Ravens over the last three seasons (24 rush touchdowns, three receiving touchdowns) but is unbearably expensive. Get this: McGahee is set to earn $6 million in '11, Ray Rice is tabbed for $555,000. That's not right, and the Ravens are going to have to make this right, likely by giving Rice some of the money McGahee would get. McGahee still has gas left in the tank and could be appealing to another team if he and the Ravens can't agree to an extension. That might in turn make both Rice and McGahee startable Fantasy plays next year -- that's something we've never been able to say.
Prediction: McGahee is in a new uniform next season with the Colts, Saints and Dolphins as potential suitors.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Redskins
2011 salary: TBD
Chance of restructure/release: 90 pct.
Everyone was pretty sure that McNabb would be one-and-done with the Redskins until the team gave him a contract extension. While the numbers in the headlines were gaudy, the key to the whole thing is a $10 million option bonus due no later than after the team's first game in 2011. So while his base salary is a very nice $1.75 million, that bonus looms large. The Redskins would have to be in a tough spot to be willing to pay a 12-year veteran with a declining completion percentage that kind of change.
Prediction: McNabb gets whacked long before the start of the season and lands with one from the Cardinals, 49ers or Vikings.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Bengals
2011 salary: $6M
Chance of restructure/release: 100 pct.
As recently as this week Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis made reference to Chad Ochocinco's future with the team, and it wasn't positive. Cincy has always been driven by the bottom line, and after watching their offense come alive without Ochocinco to end the season, the motivation to move on is high. Furthermore, Ochocinco has seemingly paid more attention to his off-the-field pursuits than his game, and his stats support it as he's had fewer than 900 yards and four touchdowns twice in the last three seasons.
Prediction: Ochocinco is released and lands with a team like the Raiders, Jaguars or Redskins.

Todd Heap, TE, Ravens
2011 salary: $4.6M
Chance of restructure/release: 50 pct.
Todd Heap has been a key part of the Ravens offense for years and has been a good outlet for Joe Flacco since he came into the league. But a hint as to Heap's future was found last April when the Ravens drafted tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta, giving them two young guns to groom in place of Heap. We saw the veteran miss playing time for the first time in three seasons and is still a health risk for the Ravens. If he was making a little bit less there probably wouldn't be an issue, but the team could use that salary to improve its secondary.
Prediction: Heap restructures and stays in Baltimore.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants
2011 salary: $4.6M
Chance of restructure/release: 50 pct.
There's this perception that Jacobs declined while Ahmad Bradshaw became a force in 2010, but the stats say otherwise. Bradshaw's rise helped keep Jacobs fresh and he had about as many rush yards as he had last year on 77 fewer carries with nine touchdowns without missing a game. Sure, he had some terrible weeks, but the Giants might opt to pay him a little more than what they think he's worth as a rusher in a tandem. Then again, if they can find a cheaper alternative, they'll rid themselves of Jacobs, who wasn't always a boy scout in the locker room. Remember, Jacobs has only been in the league six years and in theory should have some tread left on the tires. If the Giants cut him, another team would jump right up and get him.
Prediction: The Giants keep Jacobs.

Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos
2011 salary: $6.8M
Chance of restructure/release: 10 pct.
Chance of landing with a new team: 90 pct.
A new coaching staff might be in place in Denver, but the movement toward Tim Tebow as quarterback isn't slowing down. Orton will enter 2011 in a contract year and overpaid while Tebow has a pretty decent contract with many years on it. People will pay to see Tebow and he proved late last season that he's an effective quarterback. Moreover, with several teams looking to improve at quarterback, the Broncos could trade Orton to a team happy to pay him what he's owed and land a draft choice in the process. New head coach John Fox wouldn't name a starting quarterback recently, and the hunch here is that he won't do it so he can get a good pick (or multiple picks) for Orton.
Prediction: Orton might be the most desirable quarterback available to the teams with that need given the players in the draft and other available options. The Panthers might be first in line to grab him in exchange for the top pick in the third round.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
2011 salary: $8.25M
Chance of restructure/release: 90 pct.
Portis has already hinted that he doesn't expect to be back with the Redskins in 2011. Can't say we blame Washington: Portis has suited up for 13 games over two seasons and just can't be trusted with the primary rushing workload anymore. The Redskins got some good play out of Ryan Torain last year and might be in the market for a rookie rusher in April's draft. That will further push Portis out of town.
Prediction: Think Brian Westbrook last year. Portis could land a spot as a backup with a cheap deal. The Fantasy impact will be minimal.

Jeremy Shockey, TE, Saints
2011 salary: $4.2M
Chance of restructure/release: 70 pct.
Jimmy Graham stepped up big for the Saints down the stretch and with Sean Payton enamored with the rookie, his playing time is only going to increase. That makes Shockey at the very least a candidate for a restructured deal, which he might take to remain with the Saints. David Thomas is a free agent this offseason and the Saints could opt to let him walk and keep Shockey at a discount. The alternative is for Shockey to test free agency, where he should attract some attention as teams without athletic tight ends could make a play for him.
Prediction: Shockey ends up with a new team, with the Panthers a possibility given his close ties to new Carolina offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski.

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
2011 salary: $7M
Chance of restructure/release: 40 pct.
This one is a tough call: The Panthers are going young and surely are nervous about laying out $7 million for Smith, but he's still got some sizzle and could be effective with a good quarterback (he died on the vine last year with Jimmy Clausen). He also offers leadership and is a fan favorite, not to mention someone defenses have to account for.
Prediction: It wouldn't be a shock if the Panthers either traded Smith to a team desperate for a receiver or cut him, but the hunch is that he plays for the big pay day in 2011.

Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys
2011 salary: $5.1M
Chance of restructure/release: 80 pct.
The $5.1 million salary is a good price to pay a No. 1 receiver, maybe even a No. 2 guy. But with Miles Austin and Dez Bryant expected to play prominent roles for the Cowboys in 2011, the underachieving Williams is on the outs. It's not all bad for Williams, though: He caught 12 touchdowns and 54 first downs over the last two seasons and could be mildly appealing to a receiver-hungry team at a lower price.
Prediction: Williams is cut from the Cowboys and lands with a team quickly -- several teams could use his services. He could evolve into a sleeper.

Other notables on the chopping block

Derek Anderson, QB, Cardinals: $3.9M
Nick Barnett, LB, Packers: $5.5M
Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings: $3.9M
Chris Chambers, WR, Chiefs: $2.9M
Brian Dawkins, DB, Broncos: $6M
Jake Delhomme, QB, Browns: $5.4M
Jason Hanson, K, Lions: $2.1M
A.J. Hawk, LB, Packers: $10M
Bryant Johnson, WR, Lions: $3.2M
Antwan Odom, DL, Bengals: $4.5M
Julian Peterson, LB, Lions: $8M
Joey Porter, LB, Cardinals: $5.75M
Ed Reed, DB, Ravens: $6.5M
Bob Sanders, DB, Colts: $5.5M
Will Smith, DL, Saints: $6M
Mario Williams, DL, Texans: $13.8M

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