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Dave Richard

Examining the 2011 rookie class

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


News will come and go regarding the NFL labor situation, but one constant that kept on this spring was the NFL Draft. Another year, another 254 players got picked to new teams where they'll fight for playing time (well, some more than others).

Dave Richard's Top 20 Rookies
Player Pos. Team
1. Mark Ingram RB NO
2. Daniel Thomas RB MIA
3. A.J. Green WR CIN
4. Julio Jones WR ATL
5. Ryan Williams RB ARI
6. DeMarco Murray RB DAL
7. Mikel Leshoure RB DET
8. Cam Newton QB CAR
9. Jake Locker QB TEN
10. Andy Dalton QB CIN
11. Torrey Smith WR BAL
12. Leonard Hankerson WR WAS
13. Colin Kaepernick QB SF
14. Jonathan Baldwin WR KC
15. Roy Helu RB WAS
16. Blaine Gabbert QB JAC
17. Titus Young WR DET
18. Christian Ponder QB MIN
19. Delone Carter RB IND
20. Stevan Ridley RB NE

Rookies are always an important part of Fantasy play, but to some leagues they mean everything. Fantasy owners in dynasty and long-term keeper leagues don't just look at rookies as players who might help them in 2011 -- they look at them as investments for the next five to 10 years.

If you're one of those owners, we're with you. And even if you're not, you should take a look at the Top 20 rookies Jamey Eisenberg and I think will deliver the most value over the course of the next several seasons. Just remember one tip: The players who stay in the same offense from year to year almost always do better and are more consistent than the players who endure coaching changes, playbook changes and team changes.

Dave Richard At the top, Ingram and Thomas are essentially interchangeable, but the belief here is that Ingram will ultimately outperform Thomas assuming they have the same career span. Green and Jones are about as safe as it gets looking long-term, but it's Green's skill-set and role as the De facto No. 1 receiver in Cincinnati that pushes him ahead of Jones.

The top four are followed by three running backs and three quarterbacks, and the landscape of the NFL has a lot to do with that. With no "sure thing" at quarterback in this draft and plenty of "sure thing" quarterbacks long established in this league (with another entering the 2012 draft in Andrew Luck), it's easy to pass on Newton & Co. This tier of rushers is in order based on how soon they could potentially become starters; that's really the only thing that separates these guys. As for the passers, the idea here is to draft passers with upside and a long leash, and Newton has the most upside and the longest leash of anyone in this draft.

Jamey Eisenberg's Top 20 Rookies
Player Pos. Team
1. Daniel Thomas RB MIA
2. Mark Ingram RB NO
3. A.J. Green WR CIN
4. Julio Jones WR ATL
5. Roy Helu RB WAS
6. Ryan Williams RB ARI
7. DeMarco Murray RB DAL
8. Mikel Leshoure RB DET
9. Greg Little WR CLE
10. Leonard Hankerson WR WAS
11. Shane Vereen RB NE
12. Cam Newton QB CAR
13. Jacquizz Rodgers RB ATL
14. Titus Young RB DET
15. Jordan Todman RB SD
16. Kendall Hunter RB SF
17. Blaine Gabbert QB JAC
18. Jonathan Baldwin WR KC
19. Delone Carter RB IND
20. Rob Housler TE ARI

Receivers Smith and Hankerson represent excellent value choices; both should have good careers with their respective franchises. Baldwin isn't quite there because it's expected that he'll take some time to develop at the pro level. Limited upside caps Helu, Carter and Ridley. Why is Ponder toward the bottom of our Top 20? Long-term concerns about the health of his arm actually make him more appealing sooner than later.

Finally, kicker Alex Henery might have the longest, most consistent career of any 2011 rookie, but he's a kicker, and it's not worth a long-term minded Fantasy owner to sweat a kicker when there are always so many available.

Jamey Eisenberg Thomas is the No. 1 rookie to target this year in all leagues, and he has the chance to shine for Fantasy owners right away because the Dolphins should make him a workhorse. They will likely add someone for competition -- probably a scat back to catch passes -- but Thomas will start and work at the goal line.

At the running back spot, Ingram is next, but the presence of Pierre Thomas will lower his value, along with the Saints' explosive passing game. Helu has the potential to start for the Redskins right away and should be Mike Shanahan's next pet project, which gives him a slight nod over Williams, Murray and Leshoure, who are also in timeshare situations. Vereen, Rodgers, Todman and Hunter are all third-down options, so look for them in point-per-reception formats, and Carter will likely be used as a goal-line back for the Colts.

At wide receiver, Green and Jones should be stars right away, but Little and Hankerson could be surprise options based on the need for help with their respective teams in Cleveland and Washington. Young is a deep threat who should play well for the Lions, and Baldwin could be featured in Kansas City opposite Dwayne Bowe.

Housler makes the list as the No. 1 tight end ahead of Kyle Rudolph, who is also a quality long-term prospect, especially beginning in 2012 when Visanthe Shiancoe is gone in Minnesota.

And at quarterback, Cam Newton's running ability should help his Fantasy value, but this class is lacking in talent. Gabbert could develop with a year to watch behind David Garrard, but Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick have a lot to prove before they should be considered quality Fantasy options.

When we look back on this class, don't be surprised if Ryan Mallett is the best Fantasy quarterback of this group.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter . You can also follow Jamey at @jameyeisenberg . Do you have a question or a comment for our Fantasy staff? Drop us a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com .

 
 
 
Player News
Mike Wallace
Wallace would 'most definitely' consider new team
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
2/22/2012
News: In an interview with SiriusXM NFL Radio on Wednesday, wideout Mike Wallace spoke candidly about possibly signing with a new team if the Steelers do not give him the franchise tag this offseason. Wallace is scheduled to be a restricted free agent and will at least receive a first-round tender offer from the Steelers, which means a team willing to part with a first-round pick can sign him to an offer sheet. When asked if he would consider signing with the 49ers or Patriots, two teams with late first-round picks and a need at receiver, Wallace said: "Most definitely. Those are the two true playoff-caliber teams who I think that the right person and right piece to those guys will put them over the top. All they need is one more piece to any one of those puzzles on both sides of those teams. So most definitely, they're Super Bowl contenders. If I were to consider going somewhere else, those would definitely be two teams ... I wouldn't want to go anywhere and leave the situation where I'm at where I have a great quarterback and a great organization and go somewhere where I don't feel like I can succeed."
Analysis: Wallace went on to drive two points home: He feels as though he deserves a wealthy contract, and that he wants to play for a winner. The Niners and Patriots qualify, as do 2011 playoff teams like the Texans, Ravens and Bengals, all of whom have late first-round picks and an interest in improving their receiving corps while weakening the Steelers. Not many restricted free agents change teams, but the circumstances in Pittsburgh favor Wallace because the Steelers don't have a lot of cap room to allot to Wallace. Fantasy owners have come to rely on Wallace as a low-end No. 1 option but keep in mind that if he does sign a long-term deal, he will not be in a contract year in 2012, which is what he would be if he were franchised or signed to a one-year tender offer by the Steelers. It's going to get interesting starting around March 5.

Steve Johnson
No tag expected for Stevie
Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
2/22/2012
News: The Bills and wide receiver Steve Johnson are "far apart" on a contract extension and might be allowed to test free agency. The Buffalo News claims a league source told them that Johnson is not expected to receive the franchise tag. Meetings between Johnson's representatives and the Bills are scheduled for during the NFL Combine.
Analysis: Johnson just made it to 1,004 yards in 2011 with seven touchdowns, so he proved that his smashing 2010 campaign wasn't a fluke while also proving that he's not an elite NFL receiver. There could be some risk in drafting Johnson this summer in that he'll get a nice contract extension and might only be as good as he was this past season. Treat him like a No. 2 Fantasy wideout but not one worth reaching for in drafts this summer. Expect him to be taken between Rounds 5 and 7.

Jermichael Finley
Finley gets two-year deal
Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
1:01 AM
News: Green Bay signed tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year deal on Wednesday, reportedly worth around $15 million. Finley posted career-best numbers in 2011, catching 55 passes for 767 yards. He also caught eight touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers.
Analysis: Finley did have three scores in one game last year, but the fact he's one of Rodger's favorite targets is a good sign. Only four times in 2011 did he have 10 or more Fantasy points in a game. Finley is an attractive No. 1 tight end who can be had between Rounds 5 and 6 in drafts this summer.

Cedric Benson
Sounds like CedBen's done in Cincy
Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
2/22/2012
News: Cedric Benson appeared on SiriusXM NFL Radio Tuesday night and expressed his unhappiness with where he stands with the Bengals. The running back is slated to be a free agent but told the station he has not heard from his team yet this offseason about returning. This comes on the heels of offensive coordinator Jay Gruden saying that he'd "like to have all our guys back." Benson is miffed not only with the team's silence but also with how their offense, under Gruden, worked in 2011. "I just think we didn't stick with what the offense was built on," Benson said. "Since I've been there the past four years we've ran the football to try and win games. Even when we had Carson (Palmer) and Chad (Ochocinco), we still kept a strong identity in the run game. I just feel we got away from it. We didn't let that part of the offense grow the way it could have."
Analysis: Someone should tell Benson that the reason why the offense changed gears in 2011 was because of great young talents A.J. Green and Andy Dalton, not to mention a decline in production from Benson himself. Benson's carries dipped under 300 for the first time in three seasons while his rushing yardage fell for the third consecutive season. He also caught just 15 passes for 82 yards over the course of the year, a notable drop-off from 2010. Benson scored six touchdowns but only once in the Bengals' final five regular-season games (he also scored once in the Bengals' first five regular-season games). We suspect Benson, who will turn 30, is done in Cincinnati, which means he might wind up elsewhere as a secondary back. Don't expect much from him in 2012; think middle- to late-round pick if that happens.

Hines Ward
Freeman: Ward might still retire
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/22/2012
News: Despite publicly stating that he has no plans to retire, Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward is still considering the option according to CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman. Ward, who pleaded guilty Wednesday to reckless driving and no contest to a charge of failing to maintain lane as part of a plea deal in Georgia, has said he's willing to take a pay cut to stay with the Steelers and has expressed an interest in continuing his career.
Analysis: The Steelers have yet to make a decision on Ward but if they cut him loose it might be hard for the veteran to find a new team much less a prominent role in an offense.

Jackie Battle
Battle ready for free agency
Jackie Battle, RB, KC
2/22/2012
News: Chiefs RB Jackie Battle becomes a free agent in March and he’s looking forward to testing the waters. "They (Chiefs) said they wanted me back, but I was going to just see what my options were before I made that decision," Battle said on SiriusXM NFL Radio. "I don't know what their strategy is, but I'm going to go out there and look around a little bit."
Analysis: Battle had taken over as Kansas City's primary running back after All-Pro Jamaal Charles went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. Battle ran for 597 yards and two touchdowns this season but didn't make a good impression while doing it. He is likely to land a backup role to Charles next season if he remains with the Chiefs. Fantasy owners should bother with him.

Matt Flynn
Jennings: Flynn will be 'outstanding'
Matt Flynn, QB, GB
2/22/2012
News: Packers receiver Greg Jennings didn't catch many passes from Matt Flynn over their time together in Green Bay but knows he'll be a good quarterback when given the opportunity. Flynn is expected to sign with a new team this offseason and at least have the chance to compete for a starting job. "Matt's going to be an outstanding quarterback in this league," Jennings told USA Today. "He's gotten a lot of attention because of his output in the games he's had. It goes deeper than that. The way he's prepared himself. The way he's handled the situation of being the backup wasn't typical. He approached every game as I saw Aaron do: As a starter. As if Aaron was not going to play and he was going to lead us to a win. What everyone saw in that Detroit game was a guy who prepared himself physically and mentally as though he was a starter."
Analysis: Flynn hasn't played much while Aaron Rodgers has shined, but when he has played he's been nothing short of fantastic: In his last two starts vs. the Lions this year and at the Patriots in 2010 he totaled nine touchdowns, 731 passing yards and two interceptions. Smart money is on Flynn landing in Miami with former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin now serving as head coach; if that happens then he'll be worth drafting late as a No. 2 Fantasy QB.

Browns
Shurmur: We can win with Colt
Browns, TQB CLE,
2/22/2012
News: Browns coach Pat Shurmur told the News-Herald of Northern Ohio that he has not given up on quarterback Colt McCoy. "I think it's fair to say (McCoy) has some things he has to improve on," Shurmur said. "They're quantifiable, whether it's footwork, a better feel for the progressions, a better feel for the targets he's throwing to. I think all that is refined when you have an offseason (program) to help. ... I think he can be very good if he plays at a high level like I think he can and makes the improvements he can to help us put the ball in the end zone [to] win football games. I'm expecting that he will. The thing that's encouraging to me is he a guy you know is going to work at it."
Analysis: We don't buy it. McCoy was essentially handed the starting job with the Browns last year and completed 265 of 463 passes for 2733 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 starts. With the Browns getting the chance to improve at quarterback this offseason, we think McCoy might wind up as the backup in Cleveland. If that happens, then it makes sense that Shurmur speaks glowingly about his passer. We'll see what happens, but McCoy shouldn't be on your Fantasy radar unless in deep leagues that start multiple quarterbacks.

Bradie James
Cowboys to part ways with two LBs?
Bradie James, ILB, DAL
2/22/2012
News: Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones hinted that linebackers Keith Brooking and Bradie James might be done with the team. "Bradie and Brooking are two of the best leaders, personalities I have ever had the pleasure of being around," he said Tuesday according to the Dallas Morning News. "They're great guys. Unfortunately, all good things come to an end. That's what we've got to decide. But no one respects those guys more than we do, our family does, than the Cowboys do. Obviously when you make a decision to continue or discontinue, it is a big one."
Analysis: Both James and Brooking admitted before the end of last season that they figured their time with the Cowboys was up. Both had 50 or fewer total tackles last season and are likely going to get phased out because of their age and declining skills.

Jimmy Clausen
Clausen a cap casualty in Carolina?
Jimmy Clausen, QB, CAR
2/22/2012
News: The Charlotte Observer reports that the Panthers might waive QB Jimmy Clausen to save just over $900,000 in salary cap space. Clausen has been replaced by Cam Newton as the starting quarterback in Carolina.
Analysis: Clausen didn't play at all in 2011 and has dim prospects for 2012.

 
 
 
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