Which running backs are due to break down?

Senior Fantasy Writer

June 30, 2011

Once upon a time there was a running back who took the NFL by storm named LaDainian Tomlinson. From the first moment he stepped on an NFL field as a rookie, he made defenses look silly and went on several end-zone trips (he even scored twice in his first game against the Redskins in September of 2001). Tomlinson became not just an all-time great with his team, the Chargers, but a rock-solid cornerstone in the Fantasy Football universe.

But then something happened to L.T. on his way through the NFL: he got older. And as he got older, his production tailed off a little bit at a time. It took a while with Tomlinson thanks to his tremendous skills and ability to stay healthy, but even the team that drafted him and gave him a home for nine seasons saw his diminished talent and cut him.

This year, in his second season with the Jets, Tomlinson will follow in the footsteps of noble running backs before him -- such as Walter Payton and Marshall Faulk -- and take a backseat. He'll work passing downs while Shonn Greene works in the starter's role. Tomlinson will probably get a couple of token touchdowns, but he won't be a sensational Fantasy superhero.

But Tomlinson is not in that secondary role just because of his age (33). It's because of the amount of work he's taken on over his career. That's what has really slowed him down, and it's one of two things that we believe takes great athletic talent away from running backs. The other impact issue? Injuries, of course, and the two go hand-in-hand.

We specifically subscribe to these three factors when evaluating when a running back will decline:

• Significant lower-body injury

• Near or over 2,400 career carries, including the postseason

• The equivalent of eight full seasons registering a high amount of carries, especially when those seasons are consecutive

At-risk rushers for '11

When studying these factors and not the age of a running back, we can figure out when it's time to let an unsuspecting owner draft a veteran. The following running backs are considered "at-risk" running backs, and any one of them with two or more red flags should be avoided for Fantasy purposes for the upcoming season.

Running back	Near/over 2,400 career carries	Major injury	Eight seasons of work	Age as of Week 1
Ronnie Brown	1,140			29 (30 in Dec.)
Correll Buckhalter	713			32
Kevin Faulk	935			35
Fred Jackson	647			30
Julius Jones	1,320			30
Thomas Jones	2,650			33
Willis McGahee	1,616			29 (30 in Oct.)
Maurice Morris	829			31
Sammy Morris	709			34
Willie Parker	1,380			30
Clinton Portis	2,300			30
Chester Taylor	1,176			31
Fred Taylor	2,663			35
LaDainian Tomlinson	3,230			32
Derrick Ward	518			31
Brian Westbrook	1,514			32
Ricky Williams	2,333			34

Judging by our criteria, veteran rushers like Ronnie Brown and Willis McGahee aren't at risk of losing their productivity based on physical factors. But they could always see their numbers dip due to not being utilized as much in their offenses.

That's an important factor to bring up. Nowadays most teams use two or even three rushers to handle their run game while leaning on the pass a little more than before. While that tends to water down the stats of running backs impacted, it does extend careers. That makes it even more dangerous to discount running backs just because they're 30! Fred Jackson is a perfect example: A late start to his pro career combined with his reps being limited off and on through five seasons makes Jackson a reasonably safe rusher to trust in Fantasy, not a guy to avoid because he's of a certain age.

In addition, because running backs are sharing the work, the days of one guy taking on the "full workload" that makes up part of our evaluation are dwindling. That also means that these guys aren't accumulating carries as quickly as before. A good example of how this trend is taking shape is on display when checking out the players that are a year away from turning 30.

Running back	Near/over 2,400 career carries	Major injury	Eight seasons of work	Date of 30th birthday
Cedric Benson	1,315			Dec. 12, 2012
Ryan Grant	841			Dec. 9, 2012
Brandon Jacobs	1,009			July 6, 2012
Mewelde Moore	484			July 24, 2012
Michael Turner	1,190			Feb. 13, 2012
Cadillac Williams	986			April 21, 2012

Point is, measuring running backs based on eight years of full work and 2,400 career carries could become obsolete. We might have to punt on those categories in a year or two, though there are some running backs that might touch that 2,400 carry total within the next three or four seasons.

Player	Career carries	Player	Career carries
Joseph Addai	1,135	Steven Jackson	1,897
Marion Barber	1,083	Maurice Jones-Drew	1,155
Frank Gore	1,371	Adrian Peterson	1,269

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Crabtree shelved with torn Achilles
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday. It is not known if he will try to play this season (like Terrell Suggs and Da'Quan Bowers did last year). ESPN reports that Crabtree had surgery Wednesday and is expected to be sidelined about six months. That timetable would put Crabtree out until at least some time in November.

Analysis: Crabtree came on very strong for the Niners last season once Colin Kaepernick went under center. In the seven starts Kaepernick made in 2012, Crabtree had 41 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. If you project that over 16 games, Crabtree would have finished with 94 catches for 1,360 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's out the window now. We expect the Niners to put Crabtree on the PUP list to begin the season and re-evaluate where he's at in his rehab come October or November. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a middle- to late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent. The Niners will lean on Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and perhaps second-year receiver A.J. Jenkins to pick up the slack.

Ball expected to make 'impact'
Montee Ball, RB, DEN
5/22/2013

News: Denver offensive coordinator Adam Gase said Wednesday the team has high expectations for rookie running back Montee Ball. “He’s trying to pick up the offense," Gase said. "He’s a rookie. There are a lot of things going on, and he’s trying to pick it up as quick as possible. Obviously drafting him in the second round, we’re looking for him to make some kind of impact for us and be able to be on the field five, six plays and work together with that group of running backs.”

Analysis: Ball has the chance to start for the Broncos, especially if Willis McGahee and/or Knowshon Moreno are released prior to training camp. Keep an eye on what happens with Ball, who is likely to share playing time with Ronnie Hillman. We view Ball as a No. 2 Fantasy running back with upside. He's worth drafting in Round 5 in most standard leagues.

Leshoure 'battling some stuff'
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
5/22/2013

News: The unlucky offseason for Lions running back Mikel Leshoure continued during OTA workouts Wednesday. First, the team signed running back Reggie Bush, which dropped Leshoure on the depth chart. Then on Wednesday, Leshoure was not participating in team drills because of an injury, according to the Detroit News. "He's battling some stuff," coach Jim Schwartz said. "He can do some individual stuff but he's not ready to do any team work."

Analysis: We hope Leshoure is OK, and it sounds like he should be fine for training camp. Keep in mind he had an Achilles injury as a rookie and battled some ankle problems in his comeback. As long as Leshoure is back for training camp he should be considered a No. 3 Fantasy running back, and he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick. Keep in mind that even though Bush is the new starter for the Lions, Leshoure should work at the goal line, which will keep his value sustainable in the majority of standard leagues.

Kaepernick loses top receiver
Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. That's a tough blow for quarterback Colin Kaepernick since Crabtree was clearly his No. 1 receiver. The San Francisco Chronicle reports that in Kaepernick's 10 starts in 2012 he targeted Crabtree more than any other receiver. The target breakdown was Crabtree with 94, Vernon Davis with 39 and Randy Moss with 39.

Analysis: This injury hurts Kaepernick's value for this season. His receiving corps was upgraded with Anquan Boldin replacing Moss, and the 49ers drafted a rookie in Quinton Patton. But now he's without his No. 1 option in Crabtree, which lowers Kaepernick's value. He is still worth drafting as a No. 1 quarterback, but he should be considered toward the end of the Top 10 at best with a mid-round pick.

Nicks skips OTAs
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/22/2013

News: The New York Daily News reports Hakeem Nicks was absent from the team's first day of OTA workouts Wednesday, just hours after attending a charity event in New York the night before and telling reporters he felt good physically following knee surgery. He had attended offseason program. "He should be here," an irked coach Tom Coughlin said, ruling out injury for the reason he's absent.

Analysis: Sounds like this is a case of Nicks showing his unhappiness with his contract. He's slated to be a free agent after the season and wants an extension; the Giants are dragging their feet. Last season Nicks struggled through injuries including a broken foot suffered during OTAs a year ago, leaving him with unappealing Fantasy stats and a large red flag warning owners of injuries to come. Assuming he's eventually in camp on-time and ready for the start of the season he's a high-risk, high-reward No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 5 or 6. He went in Round 4 in our most recent mock draft, a bit too high in our opinion.

Hopkins works with starters
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
5/22/2013

News: The Texans official team website reports that rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins is making a good impression early on this offseason. “He’s such a dynamic player,” quarterback Matt Schaub said. “He’s just going to bring an added dimension to our offense.” Schaub cited Hopkins’ “great” attitude and work ethic, and is looking forward to what Hopkins will bring to the squad. Hopkins has practiced with the first-team offense, which meant he and Andre Johnson were the starting receivers. Johnson believes Hopkins is well on his way to contributing. “He’s picking up everything pretty well,” Johnson said. “He went and made some plays today and that’s a good thing. I think day-by-day, he’ll continue to get better and better.”

Analysis: Hopkins has the chance to be a solid contributor for the Texans as a rookie, and we would draft him as a key reserve with a mid-round pick. In rookie-only drafts, Hopkins is worth drafting with a first-round selection.

Ebert treks to Jacksonville
Jeremy Ebert, WR, NE
5/22/2013

News: The Jaguars have signed another Patriots castoff, this time receiver Jeremy Ebert.

Analysis: Ebert hurt his leg last season and didn't play. He's unlikely to make an impact for the Jaguars in 2013.

Thomas, Manning on same page
Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
5/22/2013

News: Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas said Wednesday he feels as comfortable as ever in his rapport with quarterback Peyton Manning. "It’s sky-high right now," Thomas said of his chemistry with Manning. "I know what he wants. I know where to be on the field. I feel like the more we’re on the field, the better I get, just in seeing what he wants from me and seeing what he’s looking for.”

Analysis: Thomas had a true breakout year in 2012, turning into the Fantasy stud that many expected him to be, which happened in his third year in the NFL. Thomas finished eighth in the league in catches (94), fourth in yards (1,434) to go along with his 10 touchdowns. He enters this season as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he should be drafted in all leagues by Round 3.

Davis gets boost in value
Vernon Davis, TE, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. While this injury hurts the 49ers, it should help tight end Vernon Davis, who could become the No. 1 option now for quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

Analysis: Davis had a down year in 2012 and struggled once Kaepernick took over for Alex Smith. He stepped up his performance in the playoffs, and hopefully he can pick up from there, especially with Crabtree out. Davis is a No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues, especially after this injury, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 6.

Boldin now No. 1 option?
Anquan Boldin, WR, SF
5/22/2013

News: USA Today reports 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Tuesday and will undergo surgery. It is not known if he will try to play this season. The injury now elevates Anquan Boldin to No. 1 on the depth chart. Boldin was traded to the 49ers this offseason from the Ravens.

Analysis: Boldin, at this point in his career, was suited more for a No. 2 receiver role than a No. 1 option. Last year, as the No. 1 option for the Ravens, he caught 65 passes for 921 yards and four touchdowns during the regular season, but he stepped up in the playoffs with 22 catches for 380 yards and four touchdowns. Still, this injury helps his Fantasy value, and Boldin now has the potential to be a No. 3 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
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1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings