2011 Fantasy outlooks: Atlanta Falcons
If Matt Ryan threw for 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns without a second wide receiver threat, then what's he going to do with Julio Jones in his arsenal? The Falcons made a huge splash in the 2011 NFL Draft, ponying up a ton of picks to draft Jones with the sixth overall choice. He'll fill in opposite Roddy White and be a part of an incredible-looking offense in Atlanta.
And it was that trade that set expectations for the Falcons higher than they've ever been. A season after going 13-3 and landing the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff picture, Fantasy owners expect not just a repeat of big stats from the Falcons' skill-position players, but improvement. With White posting career highs in catches (115) and yards (1,389) to go with 10 scores, Michael Turner rumbling for double-digit touchdowns for the third straight year in Atlanta, and career-best numbers across the board for Ryan, improvement is going to be tough to come by.
But the Falcons worked on it. While other players couldn't organize team workouts with their mates, Ryan got his teammates -- including Jones -- together in Atlanta and held some training sessions. Time will tell if they serve the team well, but at the very least it built chemistry and camaraderie while getting Jones, a key cog in the offense, a chance to get his feet wet with his new quarterback.
The Falcons' coaching staff more or less remains intact (quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave is gone). Jones was a healthy addition, as was fellow rookie rusher Jacquizz Rodgers, and for now there doesn't seem to be any major subtractions from the offense. With a schedule that favors the dome-loving team quite a bit, those lofty expectations the Falcons have built for themselves are attainable.
| | |
| Player | Draft Day value |
| | |
| Matt Ryan |  |
| | |
| Michael Turner | |
| Jason Snelling | |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | |
| | |
| Roddy White | |
| Julio Jones | |
| Michael Jenkins | |
| Harry Douglas | |
| | |
| Tony Gonzalez | |
| | |
| Matt Bryant | |
| Falcons DST | |
Impact rookie ... Julio Jones, WR
When Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt entered the league paired with big-time receivers, it took them a little bit of time to get acclimated to the speed of the game. Wayne didn't score in his rookie season and collected just four touchdowns in his second year; Holt sped out to a faster start but still had just less than 800 yards with six scores as a rookie. The same kind of slow start happened to recent first-round rookies like Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin and Santonio Holmes. Really, the last first-round rookie receiver who paired with a veteran and had a lights-out campaign was Randy Moss back in 1998. Sure, there have been other 1,000-yard rookie wideouts, but they all came into the league with no one else on the roster to threaten their precious targets. Jones not only must fight for balls opposite White, but tight end Tony Gonzalez will also be an option for the Falcons' pass attack. Jones, who became familiar with the Falcons' offense quickly because it was a lot like what he ran at Alabama, should be a candidate for a good first season, but 1,000 yards and anything more than, say, seven touchdowns would be a huge shock. Remember that when you think about drafting Jones -- a bona fide low-end No. 3 Fantasy option -- in your league.
Keeper-league target ... Jacquizz Rodgers, RB
Michael Turner has the starting job on lockdown ... so long as he's healthy. Back in 2009 Turner was coming off of a 394-carry season (including the playoffs) and ran into ankle problems after eight and a half games. Last year Turner totaled 344 carries, and chances are the Falcons won't grind Turner for 20 touches a game every single week. Enter Rodgers, a terrific change-of-pace option with quick-twitch moves and speed. He'll step into the role Jerious Norwood couldn't stay healthy enough to play and could get in the mix if Turner slows down in 2011.
Bounce-back candidate ... Tony Gonzalez, TE
It's amazing how Gonzalez has just fallen and fallen in Fantasy drafts I've been in this summer. Maybe no one wants him because he's not the shiny new kid on the block like Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. Maybe everyone just thinks he's an old man who can't get it done anymore. But Gonzo has finished as a Top 10 Fantasy tight end in each of his two seasons in Atlanta, and now he might be the guy to ultimately benefit from Jones coming to town. There will definitely be opportunities for Gonzalez that he didn't have before because safeties can't shadow him with two towering and speedy receivers along the outside. Tack on his red-zone involvement and Gonzalez is a sensational starter for shrewd owners who spend a middle- to late-round pick on him.
Schedule breakdown
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| @CHI | PHI | @TB | @SEA | GB | CAR | @DET | bye | @IND | NO | TEN | MIN | @HOU | @CAR | JAC | @NO | TB |
If the Falcons bomb out in 2011, they can't blame the schedule. If they're not up against a tough opponent, chances are they're at least playing indoors as 12 of 16 games will be under a roof. Their toughest road game (at Chicago) kicks off the season, and at no point will Turner face a shut-down run defense after that first game. Remember all those expectations we talked about? The schedule is a big reason for them, and the schedule should be a key factor in some big statistics, too.
| | |
| | |
| Player | Touches |
| Michael Turner | 356 |
| Jason Snelling | 134 |
| Roddy White | 122 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 71 |
| Michael Jenkins | 47 |
Training camp topics
How soon will Jones jell? While the offense he was in at Alabama is comparable to what he'll be in with the Falcons, and while he did spend a good amount of time this offseason running and catching passes from Matt Ryan, the fact remains that he went months after the draft without coaching and is probably behind in his development. Push comes to shove, that might not be a factor past the midpoint of the season, but obviously as soon as Jones gets in gear this offense might be on the level of the Packers from 2010: nearly unstoppable.
Turner enters the 2011 season healthy but there's some chatter that he won't be on the field as much compared to previous years. The Falcons know they have to limit his touches so he doesn't break down. To that end, they drafted Jacquizz Rodgers and should retain Jason Snelling. That provides not only great depth but also some opportunities to use younger, fresher backs at different stages throughout a game. Turner's done nothing to lose the starting job and should still be the main back to cash in from the goal line, so really the only strikes against Turner for Fantasy owners shopping for an early round running back are that he doesn't catch many passes and could get banged up as he did in '09. Really, these aren't issues that owners should toss and turn over -- or so we've been led to believe based on Turner's track record.
Defensively, the big question is whether head coach Mike Smith's crew can finally slam down on the pass. The Falcons were adept against the run, giving up just nine touchdowns on the ground all of last season, but the pass defense gave up some big plays. Still, the 23 passing touchdowns allowed vs. the 22 interceptions the team had were impressive. This could go either way -- the Falcons might have to throw to keep up with their opponents throwing on them, or their opponents will have to throw to keep up with Matt Ryan. Either way, chances are they'll still get shelled through the air.
Injury update
Jerious Norwood (knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Kerry Meier (knee; questionable for the start of training camp).
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