Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
      
Fantasy Football Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2011 Draft Prep: Why consistency matters

  •  

It sounds obvious, but to win your Fantasy leagues year in and year out, you must first make the playoffs. That has to be the goal from Day 1: to build a team that will do well enough week in and week out to get you into the dance and give you a chance to take home the biggest prize.

Show me an owner who has made the playoffs 10 out of 10 years and never won the big one versus a player who won two titles during that span and missed the playoffs the other eight times and I'd tell you the ringless wonder is actually the better Fantasy player. Why? Because he is consistently productive and consistently in the hunt for the money and the title.

For more from Nathan check out his website at thefantasyconsultant.com

Many people are too hung up on the final season totals of a player and are not focused nearly enough on how players got to those totals. The journey to those totals is at the very least as important as the totals themselves because you need consistency on your team to win week in and week out. For example, Player A has 130 points after 13 weeks and so does Player B. Player A just chugged along with 10 solid points every single week. Player B, on the other hand, had five games of 21 points and eight games of 3.1 points. They both would finish in the exact place in the rankings, but Player A would have been the better player in eight of the 13 weeks and Player B would have had those Fantasy crippling duds in 61.5 percent of his games. Yuck.

Here is a better real world example from the last few years: In 2005 Santana Moss was the third-ranked Fantasy receiver and yet he only gave you 100-plus yards or a touchdown in six games. A closer inspection reveals that eight of his nine total touchdowns and 108 of his 202 Fantasy points came in four monster games. That's right, over 50 percent of his production occured in just four games. He had only six games of double digit Fantasy points and in his other 10 games he averaged just 7.0 points per game and had four duds with less than 60 yards and without a score.

So yes, Moss was the third-ranked Fantasy wide receiver that year, but in 10 of his 16 games he was average at best. Not surprisingly, Moss was not even among the top 20 players in terms of being on the highest percentage of championship teams that year.

In that same year, Larry Fitzgerald produced 205 Fantasy points (so he was basically the same as Moss), but he was far more consistent. Fitzgerald gave you 100-plus yards or a touchdown in 12 games that year, best among all wide receivers. He had four big games like Moss (although not quite as big) and had three duds himself, but in 12 of the 16 games you got solid, consistent and winning double-digit production. Does it shock you to learn that Fitz was the receiver on the highest percentage of championship teams from that season? Of course not, and if you had to pick between the two on Draft Day, Fitz would be the easy obvious choice despite averaging just .18 points more per week based on the end of season totals.

So how do I quantify consistency among the various positions? While we can debate on what the thresholds should be, the following is how I have been determining the consistency of a player at the various positions.

For quarterbacks: Any game with 300 yards passing (as many leagues give a nice bonus at 300 yards) or 300 total yards (to help running QBs) with a touchdown or any game with 200-plus yards and two-plus touchdowns will count.
For running backs: Any game with 100 yards rushing, 150 total yards or a game with a touchdown will count as a good game.
For wide receivers: A game with 100 yards or a touchdown.
For tight ends: A game with 60-plus yards or a touchdown.
For kickers: A game with multiple field goals made.

It should also be noted that games missed due to injury or suspension do not help your Fantasy teams, so they do not help the players in the consistency rating. It truly tells the flat percentage out of 16 games every year that a player will deliver a solid Fantasy total to your team whether they are active or not ... period. After all, truly being consistent means being on the field and producing points week after week.

So now that you can see why this matters, how do you use it to your advantage? I find that the consistency rate data is very helpful both in the preseason when drafting and also during the regular season when seeking out trade targets. For drafting purposes, a player's historical consistency rate both in the prior season and over the previous three years helps me choose between similarly ranked players and as you may have guessed, early on in my drafts, I will always go for the more consistent player to anchor my roster.

Charting the consistency data has also allowed me to identify trends among the positions which have helped me to shape my draft strategies. In a nutshell, I have found that the elite quarterbacks and the elite tight ends are the most consistent producers each year (definitely on a games played basis) and are the most reliably consistent producers year after year. On the flip side, the running back and wide receiver positions have lower consistency rates each year among the starters than the other positions, while also having much more turnover at the top year in and year out (to the tune of 50 percent year over year).

Not only do you have big bunches of running backs and wide receivers with similar consistency rates, but the individual players who are in the top 24 changes dramatically year after year. That is why, in a nutshell, I think you want to have a consistent stud quarterback and an wlite tight end on your teams while loading up on as many good running back and receiver candidates as you can possibly get. Sure, you need target some consistent anchors at running back and receiver early in the draft, but then you want to grab as many good options as possible at those spots and hope you hit on some lottery tickets.

Now that you have a little background on what the consistency rates are and how they can be helpful to you, here is a look at the consistency leaders by position in 2008, 2009, 2010 and then across all three years.

Glossary
Target Conversion Rate or Catch Rate (TCR): The percentage of a player's targets (passes thrown to them) that are converted into receptions. Over 60 percent is excellent, 66 percent is elite and under 52.5 percent is worrisome.
Yards per Target (YPT): A player's receiving yards divided by his targets. In other words, the numbers of yards a team gains on average every time they attempt a pass to a certain player. Over 10 is exceptional, over 8 is solid and 6 or lower is horrendous.
Red Zone Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 20 yard line
Red Zone TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Red Zone opportunities that result in a TD
Goal Line Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 5 yard line
Goal Line TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Goal Line opportunities that result in a TD
Consistency Rate: The percentage of quality starts a player gives you out of 16 games. For QBs that is a game with 300+ yards passing OR multiple TDs. For RBs/WRs: A game with 100+ yards rush/rec or a game with a TD. For TEs: A game with 60+ yards receiving or a TD. For a Kicker: A game with multiple FGs.
Big Game Rate: The percentage of dominant starts a player gives you out of 16 games (games missed with injury count as a bad game since they do not help your Fantasy teams). For a QB that is a game with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs or 200+ yards and 3+ TDs. For a RB/WR that is a game with 100+ combined rush/rec yards and a TD or a game with multiple TDs. For a TE that is a game of 60+ yards and a TD, 100+ yards or a game with multiple TDs.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Nathan at @TFConsultant .

Want an edge in your draft? Download the Fantasy Draft Kit App.

  •  
 
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Connor Shaw out, Rex Grossman in for Browns
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:54 pm ET) Undrafted rookie quarterback Connor Shaw was impressive for the Browns in exhibition play, but a desire to keep veteran Rex Grossman has motivated the team to cut him.

Shaw could find his way onto the practice squad.


Alfonso Smith doesn't make cut Saturday for Niners
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:51 pm ET) Veteran running back Alfonso Smith has been released by the 49ers.

Smith, who signed with the team in late July, played all 16 games with Arizona in two of the last three seasons. He managed 54 yards on 18 carries in 2013.


Brandon Meriweather suspension upheld by NFL
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:40 pm ET) The appeal by Redskins strong safety Brandon Meriweather of a two-game suspension has been denied by the league.

Meriwether was hit with the punishment for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith.


Major Wright a surprise cut by Buccaneers
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:36 pm ET) Strong safety Major Wright, a full-time starter for the Bears in each of the last three seasons, has been cut by the Buccaneers. He had been dealing with a back injury.

Wright contributed to a career-high 100 tackles last season with Chicago before signing with Tampa Bay in April as a free agent.


Leon McFadden doesn't make final cut for Cleveland
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:29 pm ET) Disappointing 2013 third-round pick Leon McFadden has been cut by the Browns. The cornerback was burned often in the preseason on interference calls.

Lions complete cut list to pare down to 53
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:25 pm ET) The Lions have announced all their cuts in getting their roster down to 53.

The offensive players released are fullback Chad Abram, quarterback James Franklin, linemen Michael Williams, Garrett Reynolds and Darren Keyton, wide receiver Kris Durham, running backs George Winn and Michael Egnew.

The defenders gone are cornerbacks Chris Greenwood, Mohammed Seisay, Nate Ness, Aaron Hester and Jonte Green, end Darryl Tapp and linebacker Shamari Benton.

Placekicker Giorgio Tavecchio and punter Drew Butler have also been cut.


Chris Polk could be ready Week 1
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(2:00 pm ET) Eagles running back Chris Polk could be ready to play by Week 1 against the Jaguars, reports ESPN.com Saturday, which is why the team opted to release one more running back than expected Saturday.

Polk has been limited through the preseason due to a hamstring injury, but has been able to practice over the last week. 


Kelvin Sheppard doesn't survive final Colts cuts
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(2:00 pm ET) Linebacker Kelvin Sheppard has been sent packing by the Colts.

Sheppard has been a strong contributor in each of his three seasons in the NFL. He played in 15 games a year ago with Indianapolis and was in on 46 tackles.


Two defenders cut loose by Patriots
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:54 pm ET) The Patriots have added defensive lineman Eathyn Manumaleuna and linebacker James Morris to their list of cuts.

Morris received a setback when he hurt his leg in the final preseason game Thursday.


Bernard Pierce back at practice for Ravens
by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
(1:51 pm ET) Ravens running back Bernard Pierce returned to practice Saturday after missing the week with a concussion sustained last Saturday against Washington.

Pierce was among the notable backs that struggled for Baltimore in 2013. He rushed for just 2.9 YPC on 152 carries.


 
 
 
Rankings