Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
2013 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2011 Draft Prep: Running back tiers and strategies

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Dave Richard's Strategies & Tiers: QB | WR | TE | K & DST

Before we get into the most popular position in Fantasy Football, it's worth your time to check out the history of running backs who finish in the Top 10 in Fantasy points.

That's an important read because last year we had six rushers finish in the Top 10 for the first time in their careers and nearly all of them will be picked before your league's commissioner can say "Round 2." Here's what's alarming: Running backs who finished in the Top 10 in total Fantasy points in standard scoring formats did not stay in the Top 10 the following year, and that percentage ratcheted up to 64 percent when looking only at the last five seasons.

That's not to say that running backs are inherently inconsistent, but it is to say that they are -- as a whole -- tough to rely on. They get banged up easily. They "run out of gas" sooner than other players. So, it's no surprise that consistency is key with drafting these guys -- the ones with the pedigrees are the ones Fantasy owners trust more.

Load up!

The best draft strategy we can give you for running backs this season is to draft as many as you can without neglecting good talent at other positions. (Note: This does not mean you should wait on running backs. Don't do that.) We can say this because of two factors: The amount of great-to-decent running backs available in the early-middle rounds and the dearth of talent at wide receiver.

Why this year? The trend where teams use multiple running backs to share the workload has exploded and nearly every team is doing it to some capacity. That opens the door for a lot of backs to see a decent amount of touches every week -- even notorious part-time players like Willis McGahee and Darren Sproles are worth drafting, assuming it's at the right point in the draft. Furthermore, because there are as many as 16 or more "good enough to start" quarterbacks and tight ends for Fantasy owners to check out, there's not as much pressure to draft backups at those positions.

In a 15-round draft where owners start nine players, it wouldn't be crazy to spend all but one or two bench spots on running backs. You'll protect yourself from running out of potential starters at a position where there are breakdowns, shortcomings and inconsistent play, and you'll have more potential players at a key position to trade away for roster help during the year.

But whether everyone follows this advice or not, you can be sure that running backs will fly off draft boards, so not only should you load up, but be prepared to load up through the first eight or nine rounds.

A note on Chris Johnson

Should Fantasy owners pass on Chris Johnson so long as he's holding out? In the very, very early stages in Round 1, the answer is yes. He simply represents too much risk, but for each pick he slides, the risk goes down a bit. If he falls to eighth overall or so, he's worth a look since owners who take him in snake formats will quickly get a shot at another stud player in Round 2.

Johnson has been a consistent stat producer and should continue to be; the upside is just too strong to ignore. If you take Johnson with a first-round pick, make sure you get his primary backup, Javon Ringer (who is not a bad rusher) with a pick as soon as Round 10.

Top-pick plan

Why you need to read us ...
2010
Our Jamey Eisenberg was recognized for his accuracy.
2010
Our Dave Richard named a finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year
2009
CBSSports.com honored by the N.Y. Times/FantasyFootballLibrarian.com Rankings Accuracy Challenge
2008
Recognized for Best Article in Major Media by the FSWA

If you're picking within the first five picks in any sized league, you've got a rock-solid No. 1 running back waiting for you. There's a consensus Top 5 in standard and PPR formats that you can feel good about. There's no need to go into them; you should know plenty about them already.

But what if you don't pick until the end of the first round? Crying isn't recommended, but you will still come away with at the very least one quality rusher and at the most two elite players at other positions. This is where league scoring and size comes into play for your first pick:

Standard-scoring leagues (starting with the 6th overall pick)
10 teams or less: Best running back
12 teams: Best running back or elite quarterback
14 teams or more: Best player available

PPR leagues (starting with the 6th overall pick)
10 teams or less: Best wide receiver
12 teams or more: Best wide receiver or running back
Note: Under no circumstances should a quarterback go in Round 1 of a PPR league unless scoring dictates quarterbacks are favored.

Note: This advice takes Chris Johnson's holdout into consideration. When Johnson rejoins the Titans, he'll resume his spot as a reliable running back worth taking before sixth overall. For ideas on who to take, consult our Top 200 lists for standard and PPR formats

Enough to go around

So while there's a clear-cut group of five running backs every draft should start with followed by another nine backs or so who are expected to be next in line, the reality is that the running back talent pool runs pretty deep this year, certainly deeper than wide receivers.

With that in mind, treat Rounds 2 through 4 as if you are bargain shopping. Wide receivers are expected to dominate the second and third rounds in all formats, pushing running backs further down the draft. Don't expect more than 12 running backs to go within the first 20 picks or so. Even though it's advised to spend many picks on running backs, the rule to follow here is not to reach for a rusher within the first four rounds; in fact it's completely fine to pass on running backs with two of your first three picks just so long as you're not missing out on a good player at a great spot (examples: Frank Gore in the middle of Round 2 or Ahmad Bradshaw in the middle of Round 3 are great pickups). But you might regret it if you don't take one with your first three picks, or take three with your first three picks. Simply put, the talent at running back is good but the talent at other valuable positions can't be ignored.

Follow us, Like us, Join us
Want more? Join the discussion on our Facebook page and Google+ and follow us on Twitter for additional insight while interacting with a community geared toward Fantasy Football.

Value city

If you are in Round 4 and you have but one rusher, don't panic. There are still valuable names left -- so many that you could and probably should double-dip on running backs with your next two picks. The running backs available in Tier 4 carry solid value at this point and have potential to finish anywhere from 10-20 overall by season's end.

By the end of Round 5, aim to have at least two running backs. Assuming you're happy with the ones you have, you can kick back in Round 6 and look for a steal at another position. If you're not happy you probably should shore up your corps with the best available back before moving on to another area of your team in Round 7.

The rookies

There's nothing quite like a rookie running back, and this year there are plenty to sort through. Mark Ingram is the most appealing of the bunch, taken late in Round 1 of the NFL Draft after the Saints made a trade to get him. Daniel Thomas and Shane Vereen were among those who followed in Round 2, and Round 3 produced DeMarco Murray and Stevan Ridley.

The key to remember with rookie rushers is that they have all sorts of potential, but only a couple make an impact in Fantasy. Last year's top rookie rusher was LeGarrette Blount, who wasn't drafted in Fantasy play or even in the NFL Draft! Ryan Mathews was everyone's darling last season (some people took him in Round 1!) and he nearly finished behind the Saints' Chris Ivory, another undrafted rookie who found playing time.

Point is, do yourself a favor and limit yourself to one rookie running back on Draft Day. Ingram is the most appealing from where I sit; he's going to be a featured part of the Saints offense and he's got a pretty good schedule. Plus he'll never see eight-in-the-box with Drew Brees under center. He'll also end up going first among all rookies in drafts (Round 4 or 5), but he's got the chance to deliver on that investment.

Mid-round handcuff plan

When you think of handcuffing (drafting the primary backup) a running back, you probably think about spending a pick in Round 10 or later on a guy no one is thinking about. An idea for 2011: Lock up a tandem with upside using two middle-round picks.

Once Round 5 comes around, the running back position is going to start to get thin. Some Fantasy owners might be fine with getting the likes of Joseph Addai or Beanie Wells then, but they'd feel a lot better if they also drafted the back they'll split reps with. There's no guarantee the likes of Addai and Wells will stay productive for 16 weeks, much less hold up for 16 weeks, so getting the guy who would replace him on the field instead of praying for help off waivers seems smart.

Here are the tandems worth considering with picks starting in Round 5:

Green Bay Dallas
Ryan Grant - James Starks Felix Jones - DeMarco Murray
Round 6-Round 10 Round 5-Round 10
Indianapolis Miami
Joseph Addai - Donald Brown Daniel Thomas - Reggie Bush
Round 6-Round 11 Round 6-Round 9
New Orleans Washington
Mark Ingram - Pierre Thomas Tim Hightower - Ryan Torain
Round 5-Round 9 Round 7-Round 9

The negative to such a strategy is that you're picking two running backs on one team for one spot. It'll pay off if one back struggles or gets hurt and the other shines, but it would backfire if both backs not only stayed healthy but split reps each week and were inconsistent with their production. You might bench the guy who scores two touchdowns for the guy who gets 16 carries for 65 yards. It's possible. But hey, that's why the running backs who don't share reps go first in drafts.

Behold! The tiers!

A key to knowing when it's the right time to draft a certain running back is by "tiering" them into groups based on expected production. By separating them, your goal is to get at least one back from every two tiers (or as many backs from as many high tiers as possible). If you see one of your tiers dwindling and it's your pick, you know to go get a running back from that tier before it disappears.

This is the tier chart I'm bringing to my draft, as of August 16.

Elite Tier Near-Elite Tier Excellent Tier Very Good Tier
220+ FPTS 200+ FPTS 175+ FPTS 165+ FPTS
Round 1 Rounds 1-2 Rounds 3-4 Rounds 4-6
Adrian Peterson Michael Turner Knowshon Moreno DeAngelo Williams
Arian Foster Maurice Jones-Drew LeGarrette Blount Peyton Hillis
Ray Rice Chris Johnson* Cedric Benson Mark Ingram
Jamaal Charles Darren McFadden BenJarvus Green-Ellis Fred Jackson
LeSean McCoy Steven Jackson Jahvid Best Ryan Mathews
Matt Forte Shonn Greene Felix Jones
  Frank Gore   Ryan Grant
  Rashard Mendenhall   Beanie Wells
  Ahmad Bradshaw    
Good Tier High-end backups Low-end backups Late-round sleepers
135+ FPTS 105+ FPTS 85+ FPTS
Round 6-7 Rounds 7-9 Rounds 10+ Rounds 10+
Tim Hightower Jonathan Stewart Maurice Morris DeMarco Murray
Daniel Thomas Michael Bush Thomas Jones Isaac Redman
Marshawn Lynch Darren Sproles LaDainian Tomlinson Montario Hardesty
Joseph Addai Willis McGahee Danny Woodhead Stevan Ridley
Mike Tolbert C.J. Spiller Ryan Torain Roy Helu
Brandon Jacobs Reggie Bush James Starks Brandon Jackson
Pierre Thomas Ricky Williams Kendall Hunter
Rashad Jennings Javon Ringer  
   
     

Bye-week cheat sheet

Want to know where to look for running back help for the bye weeks? Start with this chart. Remember, as long as you don't take a bunch of rushers with early bye weeks, you're not hurting yourself. It's OK to draft running backs with late bye weeks because you'll have plenty of time to make trades and get ready for when you need some help replacing guys who are off.

Bye Teams on bye Teams with projected favorable running matchups
5 Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, Redskins Bengals (at JAC), Chargers (at DEN), Chiefs (at IND), Giants (vs. SEA), Jaguars (vs. CIN), Saints (at CAR)
6 Cardinals, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, Titans Browns (at OAK), Colts (at CIN), Falcons (vs. CAR), Giants (vs. BUF), Raiders (vs. CLE), Saints (at TB)
7 Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers Browns (vs. SEA), Chiefs (at OAK), Redskins (at CAR), Saints (vs. IND), Seahawks (at CLE)
8 Falcons, Bears, Packers, Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers Bills (vs. WAS), Lions (at DEN), Redskins (at BUF), Seahawks (vs. CIN)
9 Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Vikings Broncos (at OAK), Cowboys (vs. SEA), Jets (at BUF), Saints (vs. TB)
11 Texans, Colts, Saints, Steelers Browns (vs. JAC), Dolphins (vs. BUF), Lions (vs. CAR), Packers (vs. TB)

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

  •  
 
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Jimmy Smith cited on misdemeanor charge
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/13/2014) Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith was cited by police Saturday night for failing to follow an officer's orders. The misdemeanor charge came after police responded to a report of a woman passed out in a restaurant bathroom in Towson.

The woman was vomiting into a bathroom sink when police arrived. Smith was with the woman and "refused to obey an officer's repeated orders to leave the bathroom," police said.

Smith became the fifth Raven to get in trouble with police this offseason.


Chris Harris targeting midway point of preseason
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) Broncos cornerback Chris Harris, who's coming back from ACL surgery, told ESPN he expects to be cleared for full participation by the midway point of the preseason. Harris said the exact timetable hinges on his upcoming visit to his surgeon, Dr. James Andrews.

"I’m doing everything, there’s really nothing I can’t do right now," Harris told the network. "I still have to go see Dr. Andrews at the end of the month and get checked up and he’ll pretty much let us know the plan from there."

Harris had 65 tackles and three interceptions last year before getting hurt in the playoffs.


Dimitri Patterson a starter by default
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) Unable to land a high-end free agent cornerback, the Jets "were forced to settle for journeyman Dimitri Patterson as a consolation," notes The Star-Ledger. Patterson, who projects to start opposite Dee Milliner, is on his sixth team in 10 seasons and has played all 16 games just once in his career.

If Patterson falters, third-round pick Dexter McDougle could get a shot.


Fred Jackson in danger of losing carries
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) Bills running back Fred Jackson might not approach the 207 carries he received last year. According to WGR550.com, Jackson will once again split time with C.J. Spiller but also potentially lose snaps to the team's additions at running back, Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon.

The website said Jackson, 33, who's entering the last year of his deal, will be trying to prove how much he has left.


Teammate: Bitterness won't linger from Jimmy Graham standoff
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) Saints tight end Benjamin Watson told ESPN that the the team's arbitration fight with Jimmy Graham over whether he's a receiver or a tight end won't have a longterm detrimental effect. Watson is hopeful the sides will reach a multiyear contract agreement by Tuesday's deadline.

"I’m very confident that it’ll be resolved the right way and guys can move forward," Watson said. "Obviously it’s always tough when you go through litigation with somebody, and it can probably get heated. And I’m sure there are emotions on both sides. But that is the business side of the game. 

"And it’s unfortunate that it came to that and that it was so public. But I really think -- I know, I don’t think -- I know that Jimmy loves New Orleans and I know that he loves our team and the organization and he loves playing here. And we love him, everybody wants him here, coaches included. So when it comes down to contract situations, that’s just a necessary evil ... not even evil, but just a necessary progression of getting a player here."


Dallas Thomas eyes starting job
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) Dolphins coach Joe Philbin named Dallas Thomas one of the team's most improved players, and he has a good chance to start at left guard, according to the team's website. A third-round pick in last year's draft, Thomas played only four offensive snaps last season.

Thomas worked with the first team during spring drills and is much further along than he was in 2013. He stayed in South Florida throughout the offseason to get better prepared.

"You’ve got to know your material, you’ve got to know what you’re doing on the field because stuff happens so fast," Thomas said. "You’ve got to be able to just react to it and not even think about what’s happening on the field."


Spencer Nealy hit with four-game ban
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) The NFL suspended Vikings defensive end Spencer Nealy four games for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing substances. An undrafted free agent out of Texas A&M, the 24-year-old Nealy did not play in a game last season.

Nealy apologized and took responsibility in a statement, saying he took a supplement containing a banned stimulant.


Jarrett Boykin will be 'hard to dislodge'
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) Jarrett Boykin improved dramatically last season and "will be hard to dislodge" from the Packers' No. 3 receiver job, reports the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Boykin will have to hold off second-round pick Davante Adams, fifth-rounder Jared Abbrederis and seventh-rounder Jeff Janis.

Boykin, 24, caught 49 passes for 681 yards and three touchdowns last season.


Trent Richardson might not get long leash
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7/11/2014) Averaging 2.9 yards a carry, like he did last year, will get Trent Richardson benched quickly, reports ESPN.com. Richardson "will have to produce right away because it's unlikely the Colts will wait for him to get going" if running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard are healthy and productive, the website said.

Richardson likely will get the first shot at the starting job. He has a much better grasp of the playbook than he did in 2013 and the belief is he'll be able to run on instinct as opposed to overthinking, the report said.


Bruce Ellington trying to overcome stature
by Jeff Borzello | College Basketball Writer
(7/11/2014) At 5-foot-9, Bruce Ellington is the shortest receiver on the 49ers' roster. But the fourth-round pick out of South Carolina should not be discounted, his high school coach, Jerry Brown, told the Sacramento Bee.

Brown said Ellington is relentless at finding open space and catching everything thrown his way. "Football's played on a big field and it's hard to track someone like Bruce who's got so much agility," Brown said.

Ellington believes he has lots of room for growth because he only gave up basketball last year. Also a former track competitor, Ellington clocked a 4.45 forty at the combine.

"I'm just going to work hard, give it a hundred (percent) every time I step on the field and keep on chasing the dream," he said.


 
 
 
Rankings