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2011 Draft Prep: Hedging your bets on Mendenhall

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Rashard Mendenhall is going to be good this year. He's just not going to be great. And if you have the chance to draft Isaac Redman with a late-round pick, you should plan on doing so.

Back in February, when the Steelers were set to play the Packers in Super Bowl XLV, I researched running backs who make it all the way to the final game of the season. You can see the results of that research with the interactive visualization below, and it could be a long year for Mendenhall.

The prediction here is he will struggle in 2011.

You see, running backs who played in the Super Bowl the past five seasons haven't exactly fared well the next year. The Packers don't have anything to worry about since they used a backfield by committee following Ryan Grant's ankle injury in Week 1, but Mendenhall could suffer a breakdown. And the reason could be his workload from 2010.

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Over the past five years there were 25 running backs who were significant contributors in helping their teams reach the Super Bowl. Of those 25, 12 saw a decrease in Fantasy points the following season and two did not play again (Jerome Bettis and Reuben Droughns).

In looking at the 10 starters, seven saw a decrease in Fantasy points the following season (Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Laurence Maroney, Thomas Jones and Shaun Alexander). And five suffered significant injuries (Thomas, Reggie Bush, Addai, Maroney and Alexander). Four of the running backs who saw an increase in Fantasy points the following season were injury replacements (Donald Brown, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Maurice Morris).

The biggest reason for Super Bowl running backs seeing a decrease in production the next year is likely wear and tear. On top of all their carries during the regular season, they get as many as four games worth of additional touches. There were 11 running backs who played in the Super Bowl over the past five seasons that had at least 50 touches in the postseason. For Alexander, he had 370 carries in the regular season in 2005 and then 60 carries in the playoffs. No wonder he couldn't make it through 2006.

Mendenhall had 412 touches last year (385 carries and 27 catches) over 19 games, including 61 carries and four catches in the playoffs. Since he runs between the tackles and thrives on contact, that kind of workload catches up to running backs quickly.

Now, in his defense, he's only 24 and has just two years of work as a starter under his belt, so his body hasn't been beaten up too much in his career. The NFL lockout also helped him with a lack of work in the offseason. He has a favorable schedule this year and the Steelers will feature him at the goal line. He had 1,273 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last year in the regular season.

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But if you look at Mendenhall's overall body of work from last year, it can be a little deceiving. He had just four games with more than 100 rushing yards, and two of them came when Ben Roethlisberger was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the NFL's code of conduct policy.

Keep in mind that he had seven games with at least 22 carries and 11 games with at least 18 carries, so the Steelers tried to force feed him the ball. And if you look at his stats with Roethlisberger and without, he averaged 102.8 rush yards when his starting quarterback was suspended and just 72.8 in the 15 games when Roethlisberger was active, including the postseason.

The Steelers also continue to open up the passing game – Roethlisberger has averaged at least 32 pass attempts a game in each of the past two seasons – and they have a dynamic receiving corps with Mike Wallace, Hines Ward and Antonio Brown. The more they throw, the less likely Mendenhall is to rack up stats.

When looking at Mendenhall on Draft Day – he's being drafted at No. 16 overall (Round 2) as the No. 9 running back – he should be taken as a starter because for stretches of the season he will play well. A good comparison is Michael Turner from 2009. He had a heavy workload with 376 carries in 2008, but in 2009 he suffered an ankle injury and played in just 11 games. He still managed 871 yards and 10 touchdowns.

We can definitely see Mendenhall having plenty of positive moments, but there could also be a time where he's resting or out, based on Super Bowl history. And that's where Redman comes in.

If you can draft him with a late-round pick – his Average Draft Position is No. 158 overall (Round 13) – you could be getting a sleeper with plenty of upside. Because if Mendenhall struggles as previous running backs who played in the Super Bowl have recently, then the backup for the Steelers could be a great Fantasy running back this year.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
A.J. Green returns from arm injury
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(9:12 pm ET) Bengals receiver A.J. Green returned to the game against Denver late in the first quarter with his upper right arm bandaged. Green had left after taking a shot from Broncos safety T.J. Ward.

He had no catches in the first quarter.


Bengals WR A.J. Green probable to return from arm injury
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(8:47 pm ET) Bengals wideout A.J. Green suffered a right arm injury in the first quarter of Monday's game against the Broncos, but was deemed probable to return. Green reached for a high throw from Andy Dalton and got popped by safety T.J. Ward.

The ball was intercepted by corner Aqib Talib and returned 33 yards for a touchdown.


Rams sticking with C Scott Wells despite bad snaps
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(8:14 pm ET) Rams coach Jeff Fisher said he is sticking with center Scott Wells despite two errant shotgun snaps in Sunday's loss to the Giants, reports the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Wells has played with an elbow brace since hurting his elbow Oct. 26.

"We're gonna go forward with Scott," Fisher told the paper. "Scott does a good job inside communicating, identifying things, getting protections called."


LT Ryan Clady among Broncos ready to roll
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:32 pm ET) Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning will have his blindside protector Monday night in Cincinnati, as left tackle Ryan Clady is active. Clady had been questionable with a thigh injury.

Also suiting up for Denver are right tackle Chris Clark (back), wideout Cody Latimer (concussion), center Will Montgomery (knee), tight end Jacob Tamme (ribs) and cornerback Kayvon Webster (shoulder).


TE Jermaine Gresham among Bengals cleared to play
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:28 pm ET) Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham, who was probable with a toe injury, is active for Monday's game against the Broncos after sitting out last week.

Also suiting up for Cincy are defensive end Carlos Dunlap (calf), defensive end Margus Hunt (ankle), cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (Achilles), offensive tackle Marshall Newhouse (illness), cornerback Terence Newman (ankle), guard Mike Pollak (knee) and wideout Brandon Tate (illness).


Bengals release MNF inactives
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:18 pm ET) The Bengals ruled these players inactive for Monday's game against the Broncos: quarterback AJ McCarron (illness), defensive back Chris Lewis-Harris, linebacker Emmanuel Lamu (hamstring), wideouts Greg Little and James Wright (knee), and offensive linemen Devon Still and Tanner Hawkinson.

Broncos announce Week 16 inactives
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:13 pm ET) The Broncos declared running back Ronnie Hillman (foot), linebacker Brandon Marshall (foot), defensive back Tony Carter, offensive linemen Michael Schofield and Paul Cornick, tight end Dominique Jones and defensive lineman Quanterus Smith inactive for Monday's game at Cincinnati.

RB Ronnie Hillman inactive as C.J. Anderson starts again
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:07 pm ET) Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman, who was questionable with a foot injury, is inactive at Cincinnati and will miss his sixth straight game. Running back C.J. Anderson, who was probable with an ankle injury, is active and will get another start.

Anderson has scored five touchdowns in the past four games while receiving at least 21 touches in each. Juwan Thompson (knee, ankle) also is active after being listed as questionable and will back up Anderson.


Peyton Manning, Emmanuel Sanders good to go for MNF
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(7:02 pm ET) Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning and wideout Emmanuel Sanders, who were listed as questionable, are active as expected for Monday night's game in Cincinnati. Manning is dealing with a thigh injury, while Sanders missed practice Saturday due to an illness.

Manning will have all his top targets available, as wideout Demaryius Thomas (ankle) and tight end Julius Thomas (ankle) also are active after being listed as probable.

Denver is laying 3 or 3.5 points at Vegas sportsbooks.


Dolphins might move Dion Jordan to outside linebacker
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(6:38 pm ET) Dolphins defensive end Dion Jordan got his first sack of the season Sunday against Minnesota. Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle told the Palm Beach Post the team needs more production from the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft and will consider moving him to outside linebacker next season.

"We have got to find ways to utilize him more," Coyle said.

Miami has a bigger need at outside linebacker than defensive end. Since returning from a six-game suspension to start the season, Jordan has played 34 percent of the defensive snaps. He has 16 tackles and a sack in nine games.


 
 
 
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