Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today Blog
Gameday Inactives
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Scores
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
Fantasy Baseball Today Blog
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2011 Draft Prep: Hedging your bets on Mendenhall

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Rashard Mendenhall is going to be good this year. He's just not going to be great. And if you have the chance to draft Isaac Redman with a late-round pick, you should plan on doing so.

Back in February, when the Steelers were set to play the Packers in Super Bowl XLV, I researched running backs who make it all the way to the final game of the season. You can see the results of that research with the interactive visualization below, and it could be a long year for Mendenhall.

The prediction here is he will struggle in 2011.

You see, running backs who played in the Super Bowl the past five seasons haven't exactly fared well the next year. The Packers don't have anything to worry about since they used a backfield by committee following Ryan Grant's ankle injury in Week 1, but Mendenhall could suffer a breakdown. And the reason could be his workload from 2010.

Follow us, Like us, Join us
Want more? Join the discussion on our Facebook page and Google+ and follow us on Twitter for additional insight while interacting with a community geared toward Fantasy Football.

Over the past five years there were 25 running backs who were significant contributors in helping their teams reach the Super Bowl. Of those 25, 12 saw a decrease in Fantasy points the following season and two did not play again (Jerome Bettis and Reuben Droughns).

In looking at the 10 starters, seven saw a decrease in Fantasy points the following season (Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Laurence Maroney, Thomas Jones and Shaun Alexander). And five suffered significant injuries (Thomas, Reggie Bush, Addai, Maroney and Alexander). Four of the running backs who saw an increase in Fantasy points the following season were injury replacements (Donald Brown, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Maurice Morris).

The biggest reason for Super Bowl running backs seeing a decrease in production the next year is likely wear and tear. On top of all their carries during the regular season, they get as many as four games worth of additional touches. There were 11 running backs who played in the Super Bowl over the past five seasons that had at least 50 touches in the postseason. For Alexander, he had 370 carries in the regular season in 2005 and then 60 carries in the playoffs. No wonder he couldn't make it through 2006.

Mendenhall had 412 touches last year (385 carries and 27 catches) over 19 games, including 61 carries and four catches in the playoffs. Since he runs between the tackles and thrives on contact, that kind of workload catches up to running backs quickly.

Now, in his defense, he's only 24 and has just two years of work as a starter under his belt, so his body hasn't been beaten up too much in his career. The NFL lockout also helped him with a lack of work in the offseason. He has a favorable schedule this year and the Steelers will feature him at the goal line. He had 1,273 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last year in the regular season.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe today!

But if you look at Mendenhall's overall body of work from last year, it can be a little deceiving. He had just four games with more than 100 rushing yards, and two of them came when Ben Roethlisberger was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the NFL's code of conduct policy.

Keep in mind that he had seven games with at least 22 carries and 11 games with at least 18 carries, so the Steelers tried to force feed him the ball. And if you look at his stats with Roethlisberger and without, he averaged 102.8 rush yards when his starting quarterback was suspended and just 72.8 in the 15 games when Roethlisberger was active, including the postseason.

The Steelers also continue to open up the passing game – Roethlisberger has averaged at least 32 pass attempts a game in each of the past two seasons – and they have a dynamic receiving corps with Mike Wallace, Hines Ward and Antonio Brown. The more they throw, the less likely Mendenhall is to rack up stats.

When looking at Mendenhall on Draft Day – he's being drafted at No. 16 overall (Round 2) as the No. 9 running back – he should be taken as a starter because for stretches of the season he will play well. A good comparison is Michael Turner from 2009. He had a heavy workload with 376 carries in 2008, but in 2009 he suffered an ankle injury and played in just 11 games. He still managed 871 yards and 10 touchdowns.

We can definitely see Mendenhall having plenty of positive moments, but there could also be a time where he's resting or out, based on Super Bowl history. And that's where Redman comes in.

If you can draft him with a late-round pick – his Average Draft Position is No. 158 overall (Round 13) – you could be getting a sleeper with plenty of upside. Because if Mendenhall struggles as previous running backs who played in the Super Bowl have recently, then the backup for the Steelers could be a great Fantasy running back this year.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Report: Late December the best case for Eagles' Nick Foles
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:18 am ET) Eagles quarterback Nick Foles is hoping to return in late December, according to philly.com.

Foles has yet to have a follow-up on his broken collarbone, but is expected to go next week. He was initially slated to miss 6-8 weeks due to the issue, but that could be optimistic. The best case scenario for Foles is a possible Week 16 return against Washington. Foles has been preparing as though he's going to return again this season, according to offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. "He's involved in every single meeting," Shurmur said. "He's out there on the field. He's throwing and running."

Foles has already missed three games due to the injury.


Report: Texans RB Arian Foster likely to start on Sunday
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) Texans running back Arian Foster is likely to start Week 13 against the Titans, according to the Houston Chronicle

Foster "looked pretty good" in practice, according to coach Bill O'Brien. Barring a setback, it's believed Foster will return to the starting lineup. He missed the last two games due to a groin injury. 


Cowboys QB Tony Romo probable for Thursday's game
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is probable heading into Thursday's game against the Eagles.

Romo was listed with a back injury, but was able to practice in full on both Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Josh Brent, Tyrone Crawford, Doug Free, Nick Hayden, Rolando McClain and Terrance Williams were also listed as probable, and should play.

The team did not list any players as questionable, though Jeff Heath was listed as doubtful.

Jack Crawford, Tyler Patmon and Dekoda Watson were all ruled out prior to Thursday. 


Bears list Week 13 injury report
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) The Bears have listed their Week 13 injury report prior to Thursday's game.

Wideout Brandon Marshall has been listed as probable with an ankle injury. He's been limited in practice throughout the week, but should play. Eben Britton, Jordan Mills and Brock Vereen were also listed as probable.

First-round pick Kyle Fuller will come into the contest as a game-time decision. He's questionable due to a knee injury. Both Jeremiah Ratliff and Trevor Scott will be listed as doubtful.

Lance Briggs, Darryl Sharpton, Chris Williams and Brian De La Puente have already been ruled out. 


Seahawks list Week 13 injury report
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) The Seahawks have released their Week 13 injury report.

Marshawn Lynch is listed as probable due to a back injury. He was able to put in full practice on Wednesday. Jermaine Kearse, Marcus Burley and James Carpenter have also been ruled probable. 

Demarcus Dobbs and Jeremy Lane are listed as questionable. Dobbs is dealing with a knee injury. Lane has a glute issue.

Finally, Max Unger, Cooper Helfet and Kevin Pierre-Louis have been ruled out. None of the three were able to practice during the week. 


Raiders' Latavius Murray 'feeling better every day'
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) Raiders running back Latavius Murray is "feeling better every day," according to CSN.

Murray was able to return to practice on Wednesday, but has not been cleared to return from his concussion just yet. Despite that, Murray seems optimistic about his status. "I’ve felt fine, and I’m feeling better each day," Murray said. "With these kind of things you have to take it one day at a time and follow the right procedures." Murray was on his way to a huge game before leaving with the injury Week 12. 


Seahawks' Cooper Helfet to miss Thursday's game
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) Seahawks tight end Cooper Helfet will miss Thursday's game against the 49ers.

Helfet is dealing with an ankle injury. He was not able to take part in practice during the week, and is already listed as out.


Vikings OL Phil Loadholt expects to be ready for camp
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) Vikings offensive lineman Phil Loadholt expects to be ready for training camp.

Loadholt will have season-ending surgery on a torn pectoral muscle soon. The team placed him on IR, meaning he won't be back this season. 


Ravens sign Emmanuel Ogbuehi to practice squad
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) The Ravens have signed tight end Emmanuel Ogbuehi to the practice squad on Wednesday.

Ogbuehi had been on the practice squad earlier in the season, but was cut in September. The team placed tight end Konrad Reuland on the practice squad injured list, making room for Ogbuehi to return. 


Rams wideout Damian Williams clears waivers
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(11/26/2014) Rams wideout Damian Williams cleared waivers on Wednesday.

Williams was released by the club on Tuesday, and was not picked up by a club on waivers. He's now free to sign with any team. 


 
 
 
Rankings