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2011 Draft Prep: Public perception meets reality

Senior Fantasy Writer
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We're now through the all-important third preseason game, and Fantasy owners are finally getting a clear picture of how to approach Draft Day. Even so, there are still tough decisions to make with several prominent players.

For example, is Arian Foster still worth a Top 2 overall selection after he tweaked his hamstring? Is Chris Johnson still worth a Top 5 overall pick because of his holdout? When is the right time to draft Peyton Manning because of his neck injury?

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On Foster, the answer is yes, and I still consider him the No. 1 overall pick since he will be ready for Week 1. I would draft Johnson at No. 5 overall because he's a special talent and worth the risk. Just take Javon Ringer in Round 10 even though his Average Draft Position is Round 13 at No. 145 overall.

As for Manning, he is becoming a Draft Day steal because in some leagues he is falling to Round 4. You should definitely take Manning there, get a capable backup for potentially the first two weeks of the season if he's out and then you have an elite quarterback for the rest of the year once Manning is 100 percent healthy.

For a more in-depth look at the ADP you can use our interactive visualization below. You can view the changes in standard and point per reception formats, as well as guys who are being undervalued and overvalued. You can also quickly identify who the biggest movers are in drafts, both up and down.

This is just another tool to help you on Draft Day. While our rankings and projections should be your ultimate guide, don't forget about public perception. It could help you break a tie when deciding between Player A and Player B.

The first round looks like this ...

Rodgers vs. Vick
Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick continue to jockey for the No. 1 overall quarterback spot, and Rodgers has now moved ahead of Vick this week. Last week, Vick was in the top spot.

Both quarterbacks are being drafted in the first round with Rodgers at No. 6 overall and Vick at No. 7 on average. We continue to preach waiting on quarterbacks toward the end of Round 1 at the earliest, but I understand that if you want Rodgers and Vick, you have to draft them when they are available or else you will miss out.

Brady is now a Top 10 selection
Tom Brady continues to solidify himself as the No. 3 quarterback behind Rodgers and Vick and ahead of Drew Brees, Manning and Philip Rivers. But Brady being drafted No. 10 overall is a little high.

Again, I realize that if you want Brady you have to draft him when he's available, but if you take a running back or wide receiver you should still be able to get Brady in Round 2. There's no reason that three quarterbacks should be drafted in Round 1 when only one receiver (Andre Johnson) is being selected.

Turner still at No. 12
Michael Turner has not run well during the preseason with 18 carries for 54 yards, and I'm a little concerned about drafting him so high. I hope the groin surgery he had this offseason doesn't become a lingering problem.

It's also clear the Falcons are going to throw the ball at will this season since Matt Ryan attempted 42 passes against Pittsburgh in the third preseason game. Granted, it's the Steelers, and running against them is never easy, but Turner might not be worth the risk of drafting as high as No. 12 overall.

Quarterbacks on the rise

McCoy a solid backup
Colt McCoy has done a solid job during the preseason, and Fantasy owners have taken notice. He is now being drafted as the No. 21 quarterback, which makes him a solid No. 2 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

McCoy is not someone you want to start in the majority of leagues, but the Browns have a favorable schedule this year and a new system, which McCoy obviously likes. If you miss on some of the better No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez or Kyle Orton) then consider McCoy with a late-round pick.

Henne now on radar
Chad Henne has been one of the most impressive quarterbacks during the preseason, and he has gone from not being drafted at all in the majority of leagues to the No. 29 quarterback. He is coming off a solid third preseason game at Tampa Bay.

Henne might not get into the Top 24 range by the time drafts end after Labor Day weekend, but he should now be on your radar as a bye-week replacement. The Dolphins are going to throw more than last year in their new system, Henne doesn't have to worry about losing snaps to the Wildcat and Brandon Marshall is healthy. It might be time to consider Henne a sleeper.

Quarterbacks on the decline

Stafford or Eli?
Last week, Matthew Stafford passed Eli Manning as the No. 12 quarterback. This week, the order is reversed, with Manning at No. 12 and Stafford at No. 13. I don't agree with this move.

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I would rather have Stafford, and I even moved Sam Bradford ahead of Manning in my rankings. Manning is certainly safe, and he is coming off consecutive seasons of 4,000 passing yards. But if Stafford and Bradford play to their potential they should be just as good if not better than Manning.

What's wrong with Fitzpatrick?
When it comes to backup quarterbacks, especially if you are the last owner to take a No. 2 passer, you want someone who can be good for one week when your starter is on a bye and also serviceable as an injury replacement. With that in mind, I can understand why owners pass on Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is being drafted as the No. 24 quarterback.

But in comparing Fitzpatrick to Donovan McNabb and Cam Newton, who are being drafted ahead of him, I would rather have Fitzpatrick. He played well last year for the Bills, and Buffalo will likely be trailing in games and throwing a lot. He also looked solid in the third preseason game against Jacksonville, and he has a better outlook this year than McNabb and Newton.

Running backs on the rise

Tate is a backup to target
We all know Foster is dealing with a hamstring injury, and even though he should be ready for Week 1, there is some doubt about his overall health. That's why it's worth taking a flier on Ben Tate even if you don't draft Foster in the first round.

Tate is being drafted in Round 13 at No. 151 overall, but he will continue to rise. I would start looking at Tate as early as Round 9 or 10 in the majority of leagues just in case Foster's hamstring problem lingers.

Starks better value than Grant
Word out of Green Bay is Ryan Grant is not locked in as the starting running back, and it's clear the Packers like James Starks, who helped them win the Super Bowl last year. Grant is being drafted in Round 5 at No. 54 overall, and Starks is going in Round 11 at No. 130 overall.

You can still draft Grant as a No. 3 Fantasy running back, but Starks is easily the better Draft Day bargain if you can get him in Round 10 or later. If you've already drafted Starks with a late-round pick then consider yourself in great shape, but look for his ADP to continue to rise.

Running backs on the decline

McFadden is sliding
Darren McFadden is ready to go for the season despite the orbital bone injury that has kept him out of preseason action, but Fantasy owners are getting a little concerned. He was the No. 9 running back last week, but he has fallen behind Rashard Mendenhall. He is being drafted in Round 2 at No. 17 overall.

If you tell me that I can get McFadden that late in Round 2 I'd be giddy. I would rather have McFadden over Turner and Mendenhall, and if Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) isn't 100 percent healthy I would take McFadden over him as well. His ADP is too low, and I don't understand why.

Thomas continues to fade
Daniel Thomas has been among the biggest disappointments during the preseason, and it appears Reggie Bush has locked up the top spot in Miami's backfield. Thomas is being drafted as the No. 29 running back at No. 75 overall in Round 7.

I still expect Thomas to play a prominent role this year, but you might wait on drafting him until Round 8. The more he falls the better value he will be, but don't go into Draft Day and reach for Thomas based on his poor production thus far.

Wide receivers on the rise

Who is the No. 4 receiver?
Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Calvin Johnson have been holding steady as the Top 3 receivers, but the No. 4 spot has been up for grabs. Currently it's Larry Fitzgerald, followed by Greg Jennings and Hakeem Nicks.

I agree with Fitzgerald going at No. 4, but I would take Nicks over Jennings at No. 5. Jennings will lose targets with Jermichael Finley healthy, and Nicks should see more passes in his direction with Steve Smith now in Philadelphia.

What can Brown do for you?
If you didn't know about Antonio Brown before Saturday night, well, you do now after he scored two touchdowns against the Falcons. The secret is out that the No. 3 wide receiver for the Steelers is the real deal.

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Brown is being drafted at No. 161 overall in Round 14, but his ADP will continue to rise. He's an excellent No. 4 wide receiver to target with upside even though he's behind Mike Wallace and Hines Ward on the depth chart. Remember, Wallace emerged as a viable rookie in 2009 even though the Steelers had Santonio Holmes and Ward, and this could be the same situation for Brown in his second year.

Wide receivers on the decline

Evans, Burleson not getting enough love
Two receivers Fantasy owners should target as impact reserves are Lee Evans and Nate Burleson, as both are playing well in the preseason. Evans is being drafted at No. 116 overall in Round 10, and Burleson is being drafted at No. 134 overall in Round 12.

Both receivers have plenty of sleeper potential since Evans will have the best quarterback of his career in Flacco, while Burleson is going to benefit from plenty of single coverage playing opposite Calvin Johnson. Once you secure your top two or three receivers then look to get either Evans or Burleson since they could pay dividends with a late-round pick.

Sleeping on Moss
Santana Moss is only being drafted at No. 92 overall in Round 8, and I think he should be drafted higher. I would take him ahead of Sidney Rice, Julio Jones and Kenny Britt, who are all being drafted ahead of Moss.

The Redskins don't have the best quarterback situation this year, but Moss will be featured in the passing game. He has played well so far this preseason and is coming off a career year. I consider Moss a top-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver, and he's a great bargain on Draft Day based on his current ADP.

Tight ends on the rise

Graham ready to go
Jimmy Graham looked in midseason form during Sunday's third preseason game at Oakland with five catches for 73 yards. He had eight targets, and he could emerge as a Top 5 tight end this year.

He is currently being drafted as the No. 8 tight end at No. 91 overall in Round 8, and that might be too low. He should definitely be drafted ahead of Kellen Winslow, who is going seven spots ahead of him, and Graham should definitely make plenty of plays this season if Drew Brees continues to look for him at this rate.

Gonzalez still a Top 10 option
Tony Gonzalez might go down as the best tight end of all time, but he's definitely at the tail end of his career. Still, he is being drafted as the No. 10 tight end at No. 99 overall in Round 9.

It's fine to consider Gonzalez a Top 12 tight end, but I would not draft him ahead of Greg Olsen or even Brandon Pettigrew, who have more upside. Gonzalez is someone you wait for on Draft Day at this stage of his career because his production is never going to be like it was when he was a dominant force in Kansas City. As we always tell you, don't draft on name recognition alone.

Tight ends on the decline

Gronkowski or Hernandez?
Fantasy owners want to know what to do about Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez since Hernandez is playing better in the preseason. Gronkowski is being drafted first at No. 100 overall in Round 9, while Hernandez is going at No. 139 overall in Round 12.

I still expect Gronkowski to play a significant role this season, and he is the better red-zone target of the two. But Hernandez has definitely proven he deserves to be drafted, and he could end as the better Draft Day bargain. Remember, before Hernandez hurt his hip last season, the two alternated production on a weekly basis, and the Patriots will continue to use both tight ends this year.

No love for Kendricks
I'm surprised that Lance Kendricks isn't getting drafted since tight ends like Heath Miller, Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss are. I'd rather have Kendricks based on his upside.

He has eight catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns in the preseason, and it's clear he will be heavily involved on offense. If you're the type of Fantasy owner who drafts two tight ends, then take a chance on Kendricks even though he's just a rookie.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
Patriots' Devin McCourty: There's a 'chance that I might not be back'
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) With the Patriots deciding to use their franchise tag on kicker Stephen Gostkowski, safety Devin McCourty knows his time in New England could be coming to an end. 

In an interview with ESPN's Josina Anderson, McCourty said he didn't have much information on what the Patriots would do and was going off of various media reports that came down to the organization deciding whether to franchise him or Gostkowski. 

Now that Gostkowski is ineligible from hitting the free agent market, McCourty will test the waters beginning on March 10. 

"I guess it's more realistic now that [there's] a chance that I might not be back there," McCourty said. "Or there's still a chance that I will, but I guess [there's] more of a chance now with the franchise tag going to Steve that I could be playing in a different place. Still, keeping an open mind and trying to enjoy the process."

In 2014, McCourty recorded 68 tackles and two interceptions. 


Report: Texans' Andre Johnson given permission to seek trade
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) Wide receiver Andre Johnson has been given permission by the Texans to seek a trade, according to a report from the Houston Chronicle

The Texans told Johnson that he'd have a reduced role this upcoming season opposite of DeAndre Hopkins. Therefore, Johnson wanted out of his deal. If a trade cannot be made with a suitor, Johnson will be released

Johnson was the third overall pick in the 2003 NFL draft and is the greatest player in the history of the Texans. He's recorded 1,012 catches, 13,597 yards and 64 touchdowns in his career.

A trade could be difficult, however, based on Johnson's upcoming $16.1 million cap figure and $10.5 million base salary for the 2015 season. 


Colts RB Vick Ballard (Achilles) 'on schedule' with recovery
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) Running back Vick Ballard is poised to be back in the Colts' plans for the 2015 season. 

Ballard, who has missed almost all of the previous two seasons due to injuries, hasn't suffered any setbacks with his recovery, according to the Colts' official website. Ballard tore his ACL in 2013 and suffered an Achilles tear before the 2014 season. 

“Vick’s doing well. He’s going through rehab right now. He’s on schedule,” Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "He’s been working his tail. When the doctors say he’s 100 percent and ready to roll, then we’ll get him back on the field.”

Ballard led the Colts in rushing as a rookie in 2012 with 814 yards and two touchdowns. He only played in one game in 2013 before tearing his ACL in a practice the following week. His Achilles tear came during the 2014 preseason. 


Report: Jaguars looking for help at RB this offseason
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) It appears Jaguars running back Toby Gerhart will have new role in 2015. 

According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, the Jaguars are planning to move Gerhart around on offense at H-back in addition to running back. This also means the Jaguars will be in the market for additional help at running back. 

Gerhart was plagued by injuries in 2014, which paved the way for Denard Robinson to assert himself as a potential starting running back down the road. Robinson, however, is injury prone himself, which goes back to his days as a standout quarterback in college at Michigan.

Robinson's 2014 season ended on injured reserve with a mid-foot sprain.

Gerhart's season ended with just 326 yards and a patry 3.2 yards per carry average. Robinson emerged late in the year and ran for 582 yards and held a 4.3 yards per carry average.  


Report: Titans parting ways with safety Bernard Pollard
by Jason Butt | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) The Titans will release veteran safety Bernard Pollard, according to a report from The Tennessean

Pollard had previously requested for the Titans to release him. He's coming off a season that ended prematurely due to an Achilles tear in early October. He was slated to earn $3.5 million with the Titans this year if he stayed on. 

In the five games he appeared in during the 2014 season, Pollard recorded 27 tackles and one sack. 


Report: Browns looking to add another quarterback
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) The Browns are not done just yet in their search for quarterback talent, according to ESPN.com. Cleveland is reportedly looking to add at least one more quarterback through the draft or free agency.

The Browns made their signing of Josh McCown to a three-year deal official last week, but appear to want another to go along with him and Johnny Manziel.


Report: Redskins will pursue Ndamukong Suh as free agent
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) After the Lions chose not to use the franchise tag to retain DE Ndamukong Suh, it became more likely that he'll become an unrestricted free agent on March 10. 

When Suh hits the market, the Redskins will be interested in signing him, reported Dianna Marie Russini of DC's NBC 4, citing sources within the organization. 


Browns don't use franchise tag on Jordan Cameron
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) The Browns won't use their franchise tag on any player, meaning that TE Jordan Cameron will become a free agent on March 10. 

Cameron had 24 catches for 424 yards and two touchdowns last season, at a salary of $1.431 million.


No franchise tag for Broncos' Julius Thomas
by Shawn Krest | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) The Broncos will not use their franchise tag on TE Julius Thomas. The team instead tagged WR Demaryius Thomas. 

Julius Thomas will be able to become a free agent on March 10. He had 43 catches for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. Thomas made $645,000 salary last year. 


Report: Bills do not apply franchise tag to linebacker Jerry Hughes
by Brandon Wise | CBSSports.com
(3/2/2015) The Bills reportedly chose not to apply their franchise tag to linebacker Jerry Hughes Monday, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network.

Buffalo has been working on signing Hughes to a new, long term deal for the past month. The veteran linebacker racked up 10 sacks and totaled 54 tackles in all 16 games in 2014 for the Bills. 


 
 
 
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