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2011 Draft Prep: Public perception meets reality

Senior Fantasy Writer
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We're now through the all-important third preseason game, and Fantasy owners are finally getting a clear picture of how to approach Draft Day. Even so, there are still tough decisions to make with several prominent players.

For example, is Arian Foster still worth a Top 2 overall selection after he tweaked his hamstring? Is Chris Johnson still worth a Top 5 overall pick because of his holdout? When is the right time to draft Peyton Manning because of his neck injury?

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On Foster, the answer is yes, and I still consider him the No. 1 overall pick since he will be ready for Week 1. I would draft Johnson at No. 5 overall because he's a special talent and worth the risk. Just take Javon Ringer in Round 10 even though his Average Draft Position is Round 13 at No. 145 overall.

As for Manning, he is becoming a Draft Day steal because in some leagues he is falling to Round 4. You should definitely take Manning there, get a capable backup for potentially the first two weeks of the season if he's out and then you have an elite quarterback for the rest of the year once Manning is 100 percent healthy.

For a more in-depth look at the ADP you can use our interactive visualization below. You can view the changes in standard and point per reception formats, as well as guys who are being undervalued and overvalued. You can also quickly identify who the biggest movers are in drafts, both up and down.

This is just another tool to help you on Draft Day. While our rankings and projections should be your ultimate guide, don't forget about public perception. It could help you break a tie when deciding between Player A and Player B.

The first round looks like this ...

Rodgers vs. Vick
Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick continue to jockey for the No. 1 overall quarterback spot, and Rodgers has now moved ahead of Vick this week. Last week, Vick was in the top spot.

Both quarterbacks are being drafted in the first round with Rodgers at No. 6 overall and Vick at No. 7 on average. We continue to preach waiting on quarterbacks toward the end of Round 1 at the earliest, but I understand that if you want Rodgers and Vick, you have to draft them when they are available or else you will miss out.

Brady is now a Top 10 selection
Tom Brady continues to solidify himself as the No. 3 quarterback behind Rodgers and Vick and ahead of Drew Brees, Manning and Philip Rivers. But Brady being drafted No. 10 overall is a little high.

Again, I realize that if you want Brady you have to draft him when he's available, but if you take a running back or wide receiver you should still be able to get Brady in Round 2. There's no reason that three quarterbacks should be drafted in Round 1 when only one receiver (Andre Johnson) is being selected.

Turner still at No. 12
Michael Turner has not run well during the preseason with 18 carries for 54 yards, and I'm a little concerned about drafting him so high. I hope the groin surgery he had this offseason doesn't become a lingering problem.

It's also clear the Falcons are going to throw the ball at will this season since Matt Ryan attempted 42 passes against Pittsburgh in the third preseason game. Granted, it's the Steelers, and running against them is never easy, but Turner might not be worth the risk of drafting as high as No. 12 overall.

Quarterbacks on the rise

McCoy a solid backup
Colt McCoy has done a solid job during the preseason, and Fantasy owners have taken notice. He is now being drafted as the No. 21 quarterback, which makes him a solid No. 2 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

McCoy is not someone you want to start in the majority of leagues, but the Browns have a favorable schedule this year and a new system, which McCoy obviously likes. If you miss on some of the better No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez or Kyle Orton) then consider McCoy with a late-round pick.

Henne now on radar
Chad Henne has been one of the most impressive quarterbacks during the preseason, and he has gone from not being drafted at all in the majority of leagues to the No. 29 quarterback. He is coming off a solid third preseason game at Tampa Bay.

Henne might not get into the Top 24 range by the time drafts end after Labor Day weekend, but he should now be on your radar as a bye-week replacement. The Dolphins are going to throw more than last year in their new system, Henne doesn't have to worry about losing snaps to the Wildcat and Brandon Marshall is healthy. It might be time to consider Henne a sleeper.

Quarterbacks on the decline

Stafford or Eli?
Last week, Matthew Stafford passed Eli Manning as the No. 12 quarterback. This week, the order is reversed, with Manning at No. 12 and Stafford at No. 13. I don't agree with this move.

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I would rather have Stafford, and I even moved Sam Bradford ahead of Manning in my rankings. Manning is certainly safe, and he is coming off consecutive seasons of 4,000 passing yards. But if Stafford and Bradford play to their potential they should be just as good if not better than Manning.

What's wrong with Fitzpatrick?
When it comes to backup quarterbacks, especially if you are the last owner to take a No. 2 passer, you want someone who can be good for one week when your starter is on a bye and also serviceable as an injury replacement. With that in mind, I can understand why owners pass on Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is being drafted as the No. 24 quarterback.

But in comparing Fitzpatrick to Donovan McNabb and Cam Newton, who are being drafted ahead of him, I would rather have Fitzpatrick. He played well last year for the Bills, and Buffalo will likely be trailing in games and throwing a lot. He also looked solid in the third preseason game against Jacksonville, and he has a better outlook this year than McNabb and Newton.

Running backs on the rise

Tate is a backup to target
We all know Foster is dealing with a hamstring injury, and even though he should be ready for Week 1, there is some doubt about his overall health. That's why it's worth taking a flier on Ben Tate even if you don't draft Foster in the first round.

Tate is being drafted in Round 13 at No. 151 overall, but he will continue to rise. I would start looking at Tate as early as Round 9 or 10 in the majority of leagues just in case Foster's hamstring problem lingers.

Starks better value than Grant
Word out of Green Bay is Ryan Grant is not locked in as the starting running back, and it's clear the Packers like James Starks, who helped them win the Super Bowl last year. Grant is being drafted in Round 5 at No. 54 overall, and Starks is going in Round 11 at No. 130 overall.

You can still draft Grant as a No. 3 Fantasy running back, but Starks is easily the better Draft Day bargain if you can get him in Round 10 or later. If you've already drafted Starks with a late-round pick then consider yourself in great shape, but look for his ADP to continue to rise.

Running backs on the decline

McFadden is sliding
Darren McFadden is ready to go for the season despite the orbital bone injury that has kept him out of preseason action, but Fantasy owners are getting a little concerned. He was the No. 9 running back last week, but he has fallen behind Rashard Mendenhall. He is being drafted in Round 2 at No. 17 overall.

If you tell me that I can get McFadden that late in Round 2 I'd be giddy. I would rather have McFadden over Turner and Mendenhall, and if Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) isn't 100 percent healthy I would take McFadden over him as well. His ADP is too low, and I don't understand why.

Thomas continues to fade
Daniel Thomas has been among the biggest disappointments during the preseason, and it appears Reggie Bush has locked up the top spot in Miami's backfield. Thomas is being drafted as the No. 29 running back at No. 75 overall in Round 7.

I still expect Thomas to play a prominent role this year, but you might wait on drafting him until Round 8. The more he falls the better value he will be, but don't go into Draft Day and reach for Thomas based on his poor production thus far.

Wide receivers on the rise

Who is the No. 4 receiver?
Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Calvin Johnson have been holding steady as the Top 3 receivers, but the No. 4 spot has been up for grabs. Currently it's Larry Fitzgerald, followed by Greg Jennings and Hakeem Nicks.

I agree with Fitzgerald going at No. 4, but I would take Nicks over Jennings at No. 5. Jennings will lose targets with Jermichael Finley healthy, and Nicks should see more passes in his direction with Steve Smith now in Philadelphia.

What can Brown do for you?
If you didn't know about Antonio Brown before Saturday night, well, you do now after he scored two touchdowns against the Falcons. The secret is out that the No. 3 wide receiver for the Steelers is the real deal.

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Brown is being drafted at No. 161 overall in Round 14, but his ADP will continue to rise. He's an excellent No. 4 wide receiver to target with upside even though he's behind Mike Wallace and Hines Ward on the depth chart. Remember, Wallace emerged as a viable rookie in 2009 even though the Steelers had Santonio Holmes and Ward, and this could be the same situation for Brown in his second year.

Wide receivers on the decline

Evans, Burleson not getting enough love
Two receivers Fantasy owners should target as impact reserves are Lee Evans and Nate Burleson, as both are playing well in the preseason. Evans is being drafted at No. 116 overall in Round 10, and Burleson is being drafted at No. 134 overall in Round 12.

Both receivers have plenty of sleeper potential since Evans will have the best quarterback of his career in Flacco, while Burleson is going to benefit from plenty of single coverage playing opposite Calvin Johnson. Once you secure your top two or three receivers then look to get either Evans or Burleson since they could pay dividends with a late-round pick.

Sleeping on Moss
Santana Moss is only being drafted at No. 92 overall in Round 8, and I think he should be drafted higher. I would take him ahead of Sidney Rice, Julio Jones and Kenny Britt, who are all being drafted ahead of Moss.

The Redskins don't have the best quarterback situation this year, but Moss will be featured in the passing game. He has played well so far this preseason and is coming off a career year. I consider Moss a top-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver, and he's a great bargain on Draft Day based on his current ADP.

Tight ends on the rise

Graham ready to go
Jimmy Graham looked in midseason form during Sunday's third preseason game at Oakland with five catches for 73 yards. He had eight targets, and he could emerge as a Top 5 tight end this year.

He is currently being drafted as the No. 8 tight end at No. 91 overall in Round 8, and that might be too low. He should definitely be drafted ahead of Kellen Winslow, who is going seven spots ahead of him, and Graham should definitely make plenty of plays this season if Drew Brees continues to look for him at this rate.

Gonzalez still a Top 10 option
Tony Gonzalez might go down as the best tight end of all time, but he's definitely at the tail end of his career. Still, he is being drafted as the No. 10 tight end at No. 99 overall in Round 9.

It's fine to consider Gonzalez a Top 12 tight end, but I would not draft him ahead of Greg Olsen or even Brandon Pettigrew, who have more upside. Gonzalez is someone you wait for on Draft Day at this stage of his career because his production is never going to be like it was when he was a dominant force in Kansas City. As we always tell you, don't draft on name recognition alone.

Tight ends on the decline

Gronkowski or Hernandez?
Fantasy owners want to know what to do about Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez since Hernandez is playing better in the preseason. Gronkowski is being drafted first at No. 100 overall in Round 9, while Hernandez is going at No. 139 overall in Round 12.

I still expect Gronkowski to play a significant role this season, and he is the better red-zone target of the two. But Hernandez has definitely proven he deserves to be drafted, and he could end as the better Draft Day bargain. Remember, before Hernandez hurt his hip last season, the two alternated production on a weekly basis, and the Patriots will continue to use both tight ends this year.

No love for Kendricks
I'm surprised that Lance Kendricks isn't getting drafted since tight ends like Heath Miller, Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss are. I'd rather have Kendricks based on his upside.

He has eight catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns in the preseason, and it's clear he will be heavily involved on offense. If you're the type of Fantasy owner who drafts two tight ends, then take a chance on Kendricks even though he's just a rookie.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
Colts' Luck on new contract: 'There's nothing there right now'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(10:01 am ET) An ESPN report surfaced last week stating the Colts were working on making quarterback Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in the NFL. When asked about the subject at the Pro Bowl, Luck seemed surprise when he heard the news.

"There's nothing there right now," Luck said, per The Indianapolis Star. "I didn't think about it all during the season and it's only been a few days since it ended. I haven't thought about it. I will have conversations with my agent just because you have to prepare, but I'm not sure where that report came from."

Luck has two years remaining on the $22 million deal he signed as a rookie in 2012. It includes a team option for 2016, which must be exercised later this year.

Luck just completed his third season in the NFL. He has been to the Pro Bowl every year he's been in the NFL. He's gone 11-5 in every season as an NFL starter. He threw for a career-best 40 touchdowns in 2014 and led Indianapolis to the AFC title game this season.


Seahawks' Sherman disappointed he won't receive gifts from Pro Bowl
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(9:48 am ET) In case you missed Sunday's Pro Bowl, Team Irvin knocked off Team Carter, 32-28, thanks to a second-half rally, which included touchdown catches by Emmanuel Sanders and Jimmy Graham.

While many Pro Bowl players that made the original roster were absent from the game due to injuries, Pro Bowl players from the Patriots and Seahawks also did not play due to preparations for next Sunday's Super Bowl.

One player who seemed upset about missing the Pro Bowl was Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman. However, it was for a reason you probably wouldn't suspect.

“Only thing I’m disappointed in is they won’t give us our gifts from the Pro Bowl, which is kind of dumb,” Sherman said, per The Boston Globe. “The NFL is the only league that punishes the players who actually make the All-Star game by not giving them their gifts. It’s supposed to be watches and some other stuff, but we don’t get them so I couldn’t tell you.”


Patriots' Tom Brady on Deflategate: 'My feelings got hurt'
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(9:33 am ET) If you have been out of the loop for the last week, then you might be unaware the Patriots have been under a lot of scrutiny since the AFC title game due to improperly inflated footballs used against the Colts. The media hoopla has transformed the controversy into what we know as Deflategate.

If you haven't been out of the loop, then you are well aware of the nonstop coverage it has received the last week and despite the Patriots pleas for it to go away, it just won't.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has had to deal with the backlash from Deflategate, and he found himself talking about the subject again Monday morning during an interview with WEEI.

“It’s all speculation,” Brady said. “I’ve tried to wrap my head around it, too. I’ve done that and I’m trying to move past that, because I continue to try to rehash things. I personalized a lot of things and thought this was all about me, and my feelings got hurt. Then I moved past it, because it’s not serving me. What’s serving me is try to prepare for the game ahead. I’ll deal with whatever happens later. I’ll have my opportunity to try to figure out what happened and figure out a theory like everyone else is trying to do. But this isn’t the time for that. Honestly, I’m not interested in trying to find out right now, because we have the biggest game of our season ahead.”

One topic Brady didn't have a problem addressing was the speculation coach Bill Belichick threw him under the bus during a press conference on Thursday. But Brady came to the defense of Belichick, who has won three Super Bowls as the Patriots coach.

“I’ve never once felt that we’re not on the same page,” Brady said. “He’s a great coach. He’s the only coach I’ve ever played for; he’s the only coach I’d ever want to play for. There’s a lot of people over the years that have criticized him, but I’d say there’s not one player who’s ever played for him who’s not had an unbelievable amount of respect for him and how he prepares and his diligence and his preparation."


Giants' Odell Beckham says he played with hamstring tears
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(12:24 am ET) Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham said he played all season with two tears in his hamstrings, according to the New York Daily News.

Beckham took part in the Pro Bowl on Sunday, but admitted he's still not fully healed. Beckham said the injuries prevented him from getting to that "last gear that I wanted to have." He added that the injuries really bothered him against the Eagles and Colts. Beckham said he was "stumbling" and falling over during those games. He added that he's not sure whether he'll ever be 100 percent again.

The rookie had a tremendous season, hauling in 91 balls for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns. 


Patriots' Tom Brady meeting with NFL after Super Bowl 49
by Chris Cwik | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Patriots quarterback Tom Brady doesn't expect to meet with the NFL until after Super Bowl XLIX, according to NFL.com.

The Patriots have been in the headlines all week due to Deflategate, and it appears the situation won't be resolved until after the season. "I believe they're going to do [a meeting] after the season," Brady said. "So we'll deal with it after this game. I think everybody is locked in, ready to go for the Super Bowl." Both Brady and coach Bill Belichick have held separate press conferences during the week to deny the team's involvement in deflating their footballs. 

The Patriots are subject to punishment from the NFL if the league finds any wrongdoing during the investigation. 


Earl Thomas on bad shoulder: 'I'll still play fearless'
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Seahawks safety Earl Thomas, who dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game, could remain limited in practice this week ahead of the Super Bowl, reports the Seattle Times. But he said he won't be thinking about the injury against the Patriots.

"When I come alive nothing is limited,’’ he said. “I’ll still play fearless, throw my body around, and let whatever happens, happens.’’

Thomas did allow that he might have to rely more on his teammates.

“My mindset is I have an opportunity to really trust my teammates,’’ he said. “This is the first game I’m going to have to trust them because of my injury. So I really, really, really trust my teammates, and that’s what I’m banking on, my teammates doing what they need to do and I need to come through myself.’’

It's unclear if Thomas will need offseason surgery.

The Seahawks are 1-point underdogs after opening as 2.5-point favorites.


Colts QB Matt Hasselbeck pondering retirement
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Colts backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck told ESPN.com he's not sure if he'll retire or return for a 17th season. Hasselbeck, 39, appeared in four games this season and played well, posting a 102.6 passer rating.

He's set to hit unrestricted free agency.


Colts expected to part ways with center A.Q. Shipley
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) Colts center A.Q. Shipley is headed for unrestricted free agency, and the team is expected to let him go, reports ESPN.com. 

"Shipley went from starting in Week 1 to losing his starting job, to being inactive, to being the third-string center," the report said. "All without any explanation from coach Chuck Pagano or anybody in the front office."

Shipley, 28, has played in 45 career games, starting 19.


Report: Dolphins aim to re-sign TE Charles Clay
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) The Dolphins have privately indicated they want to re-sign impending free agent tight end Charles Clay and will make him an offer in coming weeks, reports the Miami Herald. Clay caught 58 passes for 605 yards and three touchdowns in 14 games this season.

Miami also is high on Clay's backup, Dion Sims, who's signed through 2016, the paper said.


Browns extremely thin -- and short -- at wide receiver
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(1/25/2015) With wideout Josh Gordon facing a one-year suspension, the Browns are dangerously thin at receiver entering 2015. ESPN.com notes the Browns have two returning slot receivers in Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel and "an undersized situational receiver" in 5-10 Travis Benjamin.

Miles Austin is scheduled for unrestricted free agency after catching 47 passes for 568 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games. Tight end Jordan Cameron also is set to be an unrestricted free agent.

Hawkins, a 5-7, 180-pounder, led the team with 63 grabs for 824 yards, with two touchdowns. Cleveland failed to add a wideout in last year's draft but almost certainly must address the position in the 2015 draft.


 
 
 
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