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2011 Draft Prep: Public perception meets reality

Senior Fantasy Writer
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We're now through the all-important third preseason game, and Fantasy owners are finally getting a clear picture of how to approach Draft Day. Even so, there are still tough decisions to make with several prominent players.

For example, is Arian Foster still worth a Top 2 overall selection after he tweaked his hamstring? Is Chris Johnson still worth a Top 5 overall pick because of his holdout? When is the right time to draft Peyton Manning because of his neck injury?

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On Foster, the answer is yes, and I still consider him the No. 1 overall pick since he will be ready for Week 1. I would draft Johnson at No. 5 overall because he's a special talent and worth the risk. Just take Javon Ringer in Round 10 even though his Average Draft Position is Round 13 at No. 145 overall.

As for Manning, he is becoming a Draft Day steal because in some leagues he is falling to Round 4. You should definitely take Manning there, get a capable backup for potentially the first two weeks of the season if he's out and then you have an elite quarterback for the rest of the year once Manning is 100 percent healthy.

For a more in-depth look at the ADP you can use our interactive visualization below. You can view the changes in standard and point per reception formats, as well as guys who are being undervalued and overvalued. You can also quickly identify who the biggest movers are in drafts, both up and down.

This is just another tool to help you on Draft Day. While our rankings and projections should be your ultimate guide, don't forget about public perception. It could help you break a tie when deciding between Player A and Player B.

The first round looks like this ...

Rodgers vs. Vick
Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick continue to jockey for the No. 1 overall quarterback spot, and Rodgers has now moved ahead of Vick this week. Last week, Vick was in the top spot.

Both quarterbacks are being drafted in the first round with Rodgers at No. 6 overall and Vick at No. 7 on average. We continue to preach waiting on quarterbacks toward the end of Round 1 at the earliest, but I understand that if you want Rodgers and Vick, you have to draft them when they are available or else you will miss out.

Brady is now a Top 10 selection
Tom Brady continues to solidify himself as the No. 3 quarterback behind Rodgers and Vick and ahead of Drew Brees, Manning and Philip Rivers. But Brady being drafted No. 10 overall is a little high.

Again, I realize that if you want Brady you have to draft him when he's available, but if you take a running back or wide receiver you should still be able to get Brady in Round 2. There's no reason that three quarterbacks should be drafted in Round 1 when only one receiver (Andre Johnson) is being selected.

Turner still at No. 12
Michael Turner has not run well during the preseason with 18 carries for 54 yards, and I'm a little concerned about drafting him so high. I hope the groin surgery he had this offseason doesn't become a lingering problem.

It's also clear the Falcons are going to throw the ball at will this season since Matt Ryan attempted 42 passes against Pittsburgh in the third preseason game. Granted, it's the Steelers, and running against them is never easy, but Turner might not be worth the risk of drafting as high as No. 12 overall.

Quarterbacks on the rise

McCoy a solid backup
Colt McCoy has done a solid job during the preseason, and Fantasy owners have taken notice. He is now being drafted as the No. 21 quarterback, which makes him a solid No. 2 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

McCoy is not someone you want to start in the majority of leagues, but the Browns have a favorable schedule this year and a new system, which McCoy obviously likes. If you miss on some of the better No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez or Kyle Orton) then consider McCoy with a late-round pick.

Henne now on radar
Chad Henne has been one of the most impressive quarterbacks during the preseason, and he has gone from not being drafted at all in the majority of leagues to the No. 29 quarterback. He is coming off a solid third preseason game at Tampa Bay.

Henne might not get into the Top 24 range by the time drafts end after Labor Day weekend, but he should now be on your radar as a bye-week replacement. The Dolphins are going to throw more than last year in their new system, Henne doesn't have to worry about losing snaps to the Wildcat and Brandon Marshall is healthy. It might be time to consider Henne a sleeper.

Quarterbacks on the decline

Stafford or Eli?
Last week, Matthew Stafford passed Eli Manning as the No. 12 quarterback. This week, the order is reversed, with Manning at No. 12 and Stafford at No. 13. I don't agree with this move.

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I would rather have Stafford, and I even moved Sam Bradford ahead of Manning in my rankings. Manning is certainly safe, and he is coming off consecutive seasons of 4,000 passing yards. But if Stafford and Bradford play to their potential they should be just as good if not better than Manning.

What's wrong with Fitzpatrick?
When it comes to backup quarterbacks, especially if you are the last owner to take a No. 2 passer, you want someone who can be good for one week when your starter is on a bye and also serviceable as an injury replacement. With that in mind, I can understand why owners pass on Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is being drafted as the No. 24 quarterback.

But in comparing Fitzpatrick to Donovan McNabb and Cam Newton, who are being drafted ahead of him, I would rather have Fitzpatrick. He played well last year for the Bills, and Buffalo will likely be trailing in games and throwing a lot. He also looked solid in the third preseason game against Jacksonville, and he has a better outlook this year than McNabb and Newton.

Running backs on the rise

Tate is a backup to target
We all know Foster is dealing with a hamstring injury, and even though he should be ready for Week 1, there is some doubt about his overall health. That's why it's worth taking a flier on Ben Tate even if you don't draft Foster in the first round.

Tate is being drafted in Round 13 at No. 151 overall, but he will continue to rise. I would start looking at Tate as early as Round 9 or 10 in the majority of leagues just in case Foster's hamstring problem lingers.

Starks better value than Grant
Word out of Green Bay is Ryan Grant is not locked in as the starting running back, and it's clear the Packers like James Starks, who helped them win the Super Bowl last year. Grant is being drafted in Round 5 at No. 54 overall, and Starks is going in Round 11 at No. 130 overall.

You can still draft Grant as a No. 3 Fantasy running back, but Starks is easily the better Draft Day bargain if you can get him in Round 10 or later. If you've already drafted Starks with a late-round pick then consider yourself in great shape, but look for his ADP to continue to rise.

Running backs on the decline

McFadden is sliding
Darren McFadden is ready to go for the season despite the orbital bone injury that has kept him out of preseason action, but Fantasy owners are getting a little concerned. He was the No. 9 running back last week, but he has fallen behind Rashard Mendenhall. He is being drafted in Round 2 at No. 17 overall.

If you tell me that I can get McFadden that late in Round 2 I'd be giddy. I would rather have McFadden over Turner and Mendenhall, and if Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) isn't 100 percent healthy I would take McFadden over him as well. His ADP is too low, and I don't understand why.

Thomas continues to fade
Daniel Thomas has been among the biggest disappointments during the preseason, and it appears Reggie Bush has locked up the top spot in Miami's backfield. Thomas is being drafted as the No. 29 running back at No. 75 overall in Round 7.

I still expect Thomas to play a prominent role this year, but you might wait on drafting him until Round 8. The more he falls the better value he will be, but don't go into Draft Day and reach for Thomas based on his poor production thus far.

Wide receivers on the rise

Who is the No. 4 receiver?
Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Calvin Johnson have been holding steady as the Top 3 receivers, but the No. 4 spot has been up for grabs. Currently it's Larry Fitzgerald, followed by Greg Jennings and Hakeem Nicks.

I agree with Fitzgerald going at No. 4, but I would take Nicks over Jennings at No. 5. Jennings will lose targets with Jermichael Finley healthy, and Nicks should see more passes in his direction with Steve Smith now in Philadelphia.

What can Brown do for you?
If you didn't know about Antonio Brown before Saturday night, well, you do now after he scored two touchdowns against the Falcons. The secret is out that the No. 3 wide receiver for the Steelers is the real deal.

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Brown is being drafted at No. 161 overall in Round 14, but his ADP will continue to rise. He's an excellent No. 4 wide receiver to target with upside even though he's behind Mike Wallace and Hines Ward on the depth chart. Remember, Wallace emerged as a viable rookie in 2009 even though the Steelers had Santonio Holmes and Ward, and this could be the same situation for Brown in his second year.

Wide receivers on the decline

Evans, Burleson not getting enough love
Two receivers Fantasy owners should target as impact reserves are Lee Evans and Nate Burleson, as both are playing well in the preseason. Evans is being drafted at No. 116 overall in Round 10, and Burleson is being drafted at No. 134 overall in Round 12.

Both receivers have plenty of sleeper potential since Evans will have the best quarterback of his career in Flacco, while Burleson is going to benefit from plenty of single coverage playing opposite Calvin Johnson. Once you secure your top two or three receivers then look to get either Evans or Burleson since they could pay dividends with a late-round pick.

Sleeping on Moss
Santana Moss is only being drafted at No. 92 overall in Round 8, and I think he should be drafted higher. I would take him ahead of Sidney Rice, Julio Jones and Kenny Britt, who are all being drafted ahead of Moss.

The Redskins don't have the best quarterback situation this year, but Moss will be featured in the passing game. He has played well so far this preseason and is coming off a career year. I consider Moss a top-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver, and he's a great bargain on Draft Day based on his current ADP.

Tight ends on the rise

Graham ready to go
Jimmy Graham looked in midseason form during Sunday's third preseason game at Oakland with five catches for 73 yards. He had eight targets, and he could emerge as a Top 5 tight end this year.

He is currently being drafted as the No. 8 tight end at No. 91 overall in Round 8, and that might be too low. He should definitely be drafted ahead of Kellen Winslow, who is going seven spots ahead of him, and Graham should definitely make plenty of plays this season if Drew Brees continues to look for him at this rate.

Gonzalez still a Top 10 option
Tony Gonzalez might go down as the best tight end of all time, but he's definitely at the tail end of his career. Still, he is being drafted as the No. 10 tight end at No. 99 overall in Round 9.

It's fine to consider Gonzalez a Top 12 tight end, but I would not draft him ahead of Greg Olsen or even Brandon Pettigrew, who have more upside. Gonzalez is someone you wait for on Draft Day at this stage of his career because his production is never going to be like it was when he was a dominant force in Kansas City. As we always tell you, don't draft on name recognition alone.

Tight ends on the decline

Gronkowski or Hernandez?
Fantasy owners want to know what to do about Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez since Hernandez is playing better in the preseason. Gronkowski is being drafted first at No. 100 overall in Round 9, while Hernandez is going at No. 139 overall in Round 12.

I still expect Gronkowski to play a significant role this season, and he is the better red-zone target of the two. But Hernandez has definitely proven he deserves to be drafted, and he could end as the better Draft Day bargain. Remember, before Hernandez hurt his hip last season, the two alternated production on a weekly basis, and the Patriots will continue to use both tight ends this year.

No love for Kendricks
I'm surprised that Lance Kendricks isn't getting drafted since tight ends like Heath Miller, Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss are. I'd rather have Kendricks based on his upside.

He has eight catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns in the preseason, and it's clear he will be heavily involved on offense. If you're the type of Fantasy owner who drafts two tight ends, then take a chance on Kendricks even though he's just a rookie.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

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Player News
RG3 on Trent Williams: He played through 'pretty significant' injury
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:19 pm ET) Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III told reporters tackle Trent Williams played through a "pretty significant injury" during Saturday's win over the Eagles in Week 16, per the Washington Times.

"Trent played through a pretty significant injury, and that's what you want out of your leaders," Griffin said.

Williams absorbed a hit from Connor Barwin while blocking another defensive lineman, aggravating a shoulder injury. He missed a few plays on offensive in the fourth quarter while he was being tended to by team trainers. He returned to plat the final four minutes of the game.


Redskins K Kai Forbath drills game-winner to edge Eagles
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:13 pm ET) Redskins kicker Kai Forbath knocked down a 26-yard field goal with five seconds remaining in the game to secure a 27-24 victory over the Eagles in Week 16.

Forbath also converted a 25-yard field goal in the opening quarter and finished 2 for 2 with three extra points. He has converted 23 of 26 field goals this season.


Redskins get contributions from several role players Week 16
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:11 pm ET) The Redskins received contributions from several role players during Saturday's win over Philadelphia.

Andre Roberts lost a fumble in the third quarter and finished with only one catch for 14 yards. Tight ends Logan Paulsen and Jordan Reed combined for three catches for 11 yards. Reed came down with two receptions for 5 yards, while Paulsen caught his lone target for a gain of 6 yards. Chris Thompson caught all three passes thrown in his direction for 5 yards. Silas Redd took his lone handoff for a gain of 4 yards in the third quarter.


49ers S Eric Reid (head) questionable to return vs. Chargers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:06 pm ET) 49ers safety Eric Reid is questionable to return to Saturday's game against the Chargers due to a head injury, the team announced.

Reid suffered two concussions in his rookie season last year. He has played in all 14 games this season, racking up 42 tackles, three interceptions and seven passes defensed.


Redskins WR Pierre Garcon racks up 61 yards in win over Eagles
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(9:06 pm ET) Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon was held to only four grabs for the second consecutive game, in his team's 27-24 victory over the Eagles in Week 16.

Garcon came down with a 12-yard grab in the second quarter for his only catch of the first half. After halftime, he hauled in passes of 17, 9 and 23 yards. He was targeted five times and finished with four grabs for 61 yards. He has 66 catches for 699 yards and three scores this season.

Washington will host Dallas in Week 17.


Chargers C Chris Watt (ankle) questionable to return vs. 49ers
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
(9:01 pm ET) Chargers center Chris Watt came out of Saturday's Week 16 matchup with the 49ers with an left ankle injury and has been ruled questionable to return by the team.

Watt had to be carted back to the locker room to have his ankle examined. He was the team's fourth different starter at center this season. Watt was replaced by Trevor Robinson at the position.


Redskins' DeSean Jackson goes off for 126 yards vs. former club
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(8:59 pm ET) Redskins wide receiver DeSean Jackson turned in an impressive performance against his former club, registering his sixth 100-yard game of the season in Saturday's 27-24 victory over Philadelphia.

Jackson came down with a 51-yard reception in the first quarter and a 55-yard grab in the third quarter. Both catches came while being covered by Bradley Fletcher. He was targeted six times and finished with four catches for 126 yards. Jackson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the fourth time in his career. He has 54 catches for 1,083 and five touchdowns this season. 

Washington will face Dallas in Week 17.


Redskins FB Darrel Young scores twice in home win vs. Eagles
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(8:53 pm ET) Redskins fullback Darrel Young only carried the ball twice, but capitalized on each occasion. Young scored twice from 1-yard out in the third quarter, leading his team to a 27-24 victory over Philadelphia in Week 16. He finished the game with two carries for 2 yards and two scores. He also caught one pass for 3 yards.

Redskins RB Alfred Morris eclipses 1,000-yard mark for third time
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(8:50 pm ET) Redskins running back Alfred Morris scored his eighth touchdown of the season and surpassed the 1,000-yard threshold during Saturday's Week 16 win over the Eagles.

Morris barreled into the end zone from 28 yards out in the first quarter. Morris nearly had a chance at a three-touchdown game, but coach Jay Gruden opted to use fullback Darrel Young, who capitalized twice from inside the 1-yard line.

Morris took 21 handoffs for 83 yards and a score. He has rushed for 1,031 yards and eight touchdowns on 243 carries this season. Morris has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in each of his first three seasons in the league.

Washington will face Dallas in Week 17.


Eagles K Cody Parkey hooks two pivotal FG attempts wide right
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(8:40 pm ET) Eagles kicker Cody Parkey, who entered the game with a right groin injury, missed hooked two pivotal field goal attempts wide right in his team's 27-24 defeat to Washington.

Parkey missed kicks from 34 and 46 yards out in the third quarter. He converted a 22-yard kick in the fourth quarter and finished the game 1 for 3 in attempts with three extra points.


 
 
 
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