2011 Draft Prep: Observations from Week 3
Last week I highlighted some of the key issues to watch during the critical Week 3 games, as they would be our best glimpse into the 2011 regular season. Now that the games have been played I will take a look at the two biggest developments from each game.
Carolina at Cincinnati ... Can Andy Dalton lead this offense? We can build on this! Dalton had his best outing of the preseason, as he led the Bengals to 24 first-half points while completing 11 of 17 for 130 yards and one TD. I think he will be inconsistent, but at least we know he can do enough at times to keep the other Cincy skill players (Cedric Benson 83 total yards and a TD, AJ Green 40-yard TD) relevant. ... Can Cam Newton get the ball to his wide receivers? Not sure. Newton will be a solid No. 2 quarterback because of his running ability, but he has a long way to go as a passer. Newton ran for 49 yards and a score against the Bengals but managed to complete only 6 of his 19 passes for 75 yards. Again, the bulk of his yards (49 of 75) went to his tight ends and he struggled getting the ball to his receivers. Steve Smith was targeted six times, but had a single catch for 9 yards.
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Cleveland at Philadelphia ... The long awaited debut of Montario Hardesty. Hardesty looked OK in his debut with 15 yards on five carries, but I expect that we will see a lot of him in 2011. With Brandon Jackson (turf toe) out of action for a while, Hardesty is the clear No. 2 runner in Cleveland and will see extensive action in an attempt to ease the workload on Peyton Hillis. Good late sleeper. ... Is Ronnie Brown a threat to LeSean McCoy at the goal line? We didn't get the chance to see a goal line situation, but Brown looks more like a backup than a RBBC partner to McCoy. Brown did flash his skills with 41 yards and a TD (13 yarder, not a goal line carry) on six rushes to go with three catches for 15 yards. McCoy is definitely the primary back and will be on the field the vast majority of the time (81 total yards on 13 touches), but Brown is a must get if you take McCoy early.
Washington at Baltimore ... Can super sleeper Tim Hightower stay red hot against the Ravens? Yes! I am sold on Hightower as a sleeper. He looked great against the stout Ravens, as he ran for 56 yards and a score on only nine carries. He was the full time back (no one else got a carry while he was in) and showed great vision on his 37 yard cut back TD run. He is a great No. 3 running back on Draft Day and if he stays healthy (and doesn't fumble) he will be top 20. ... How often will Ricky Williams work in with Ray Rice and is he a threat at the goal line? It is the Ray Rice show folks. For the first time in his career, Rice is the goal line back in Baltimore as he took both of the team's carries up close and punched in a nice three-yard TD. He finished the day with 13 carries for 72 yards and the TD in addition to three catches for another 12 yards. Now that he will do it all, Rice has moved to the top of my draft board.
Green Bay at Indianapolis ... How will Ryan Grant look in his first extended action of the preseason and is there a RBBC in Green Bay? Grant did not look good, as he netted just 16 yards on his 6 carries. It is a RBBC for the Packers as James Starks worked in immediately and showed improved hands as he caught five passes for 38 yards. Starks looks more impressive overall to me and I've downgraded Grant after watching this game. ... Who plays the most snaps as the third wide receiver for the Packers in their three-receiver sets? James Jones (knee) is less than 100 percent and Jordy Nelson figures to be very busy this year. Nelson was in the slot for much of the game (led the team with five catches for 65 yards) and I think he is the second receiver on Green Bay you want this year. His stock has fallen to No. 5 receiver territory on Draft Day and I'd jump all over him at that price tag.
St. Louis at Kansas City ... The Kansas City offense has not shown us anything thus far; will they open it up against the Rams? Well, the Chiefs offense basically took the entire preseason off and this week was no different. Matt Cassel has been awful, but I am hoping they are just playing everything close to the vest. He has more weapons than ever, but he looks uncomfortable and is a low end No. 2 option right now. ... Can Mike Sims-Walker be the No. 1 receiver for Sam Bradford? I think he certainly can. He only had one catch, but it was a six-yard score, and I have been talking all about how good he is in the Red Zone (top 10 red zone TD rate each of the last two years). He is a great backup receiver to target on Draft Day because he will get his TDs and if the yards are there too (which they should be in the McDaniels offense), then he will break out.
Jacksonville at Buffalo ... Can Steve Johnson be a one-man show in the passing game? Against the Jags, yes he can, but then again Jacksonville has allowed more scores to opposing No. 1 receivers than any team in the NFL over the last two years. Take away the 52 yard score and Johnson had three catches for 24 yards. I think he will have a low yards per target average this year and will suffer through a lot of inconsistency. I see him as a No. 3 receiver for your teams. ... With Mike Thomas as the team's No. 1 receiver, can this be a good enough passing game to keep defenses honest? No way Jose, which is the main reason I am down on Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jacksonville passing game is in a crisis. David Garrard looks awful, Blaine Gabbert is not ready and the top option, Mike Thomas is best suited as a slot possession receiver. For the preseason, the Jags are 26th in passing yards per game (163.7) and 28th at 5.4 yards per attempt.
N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants ... How many carries will Shonn Greene get compared to LT? Greene was the featured back for the Jets, taking 11 carries for 42 yards against the G-Men. He will get the chance to carry the load it appears as LaDainian Tomlinson took only one carry and was stuffed on a third-and-short. Greene won't play many third downs, but it sure looks like he will get every chance on first and second down to be the man, and I think he is a great bounceback No. 2 running back. ... Who will step up to replace Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in the Giants' passing game? Not sure just yet. Hakeem Nicks (5 catches for 71 yards) and Mario Manningham (3 catches for 36 yards) made up over half of Eli Manning's completions and yards against the Jets and the same is true for the entire preseason. No other receiver or tight end caught more than two passes or reached 20 yards in this game, so it looks like it will be the Nicks and Mario show until someone emerges as a sleeper.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh ... Can the high flying Falcons' offense keep soaring against Pittsburgh? Yes they can. Matt Ryan completed 22 of his 42 passes for 220 yards with one TD and one pick. Roddy White was the main weapon, leading the team with eight catches for 101 yards and a TD. Julio Jones was second in line with five catches for 56 yards. Atlanta is looking good and Ryan (No. 1 QB), White (No. 1 WR) and Jones (No. 3 WR) will all be big contributors this year. ... Is Antonio Brown becoming a legit sleeper? That was an emphatic yes. Brown had another great day at the office with four catches for 137 yards and two scores. He has now scored three touchdowns from 20-plus in the preseason after catching scores from 77 yards and 44 yards in this one. The No. 3 receiver spot in the modern Steelers offense has always produced solid Fantasy totals -- Nate Washington and then Mike Wallace -- so Brown is a great No. 5 receiver option on Draft Day.
Miami at Tampa Bay ... Can we learn anything about the Reggie Bush/Daniel Thomas RBBC? Bush got the start but struggled to run the ball, as he lost yardage on five carries (including a three-yard loss on his only goal line carry). He did catch two passes for 23 yards, but couldn't find running room and is best taken in a PPR league. Thomas worked in with the starters and saw seven carries for 16 yards. He failed to score on a carry from the two-yard line, but he should be the team's goal line back and a good No. 3 runner for you. ... Will the Bucs show us anything on offense? Not really. Josh Freeman was 12 of 23 for 149 yards plus 17 yards rushing on the day and is still a No. 2 quarterback to me. LeGarrette Blount flashed some receiving skills with three catches for 62 yards, but the fact that he has 14 carries for 29 yards in the preseason is slightly disconcerting. The Bucs make me a little nervous this year and have shown nothing to dispel that notion, which is why I am not as high on Freeman, Mike Williams and Blount as others.
Houston at San Francsico ... If Derrick Ward (concussion) is cleared as expected and he plays against the 49ers, who works as the 2nd back in the game…Ward or Ben Tate? With Arian Foster re-aggravating his hammy, this is more important than ever. Ward was the first one in after Foster got hurt and scored a goal line TD. That pretty much ended his highlights though as he finished with 13 yards and the score on six carries. Tate worked in almost immediately and was the better of the two backups. He ran 11 times for 52 yards and added two catches for 14 yards. To me, Tate is the top handcuff option for Foster owners. ... Who is the top backup to Frank Gore? Dixon or Hunter? If Kendall Hunter has not locked up the top backup job, the 49ers are buffoons. He outplayed Anthony Dixon again this week as he took eight carries for 40 yards, compared to eight for 16 from Dixon (who struggled last year too). If you take Gore, get Hunter late. I think he is a great dynasty league sleeper pick as well.
New England at Detroit ... Will Nate Burleson stay Nasty in the preseason and further elevate his sleeper status? Sure he can. Burleson is a great late sleeper for you at receiver because he has great hands (over 65 percent target conversion rate) and is good in the red zone. He has scored in every preseason game this year following his two catches for 46 yards and a TD against New England. He's a great No. 4 receiver on Draft Day. ... Can Aaron Hernandez stay red hot and how many targets should we be expecting for Chad Ochocinco? Hernandez continues to be the pass catching tight end for the Pats as he led the team with five catches in this game, which netted 46 yards. He is the eighth tight end on my board and you can always get him as a No. 2 tight end, which represents great value. Meanwhile, Ocho is not yet on the same page with Tom Brady. He did not catch any of his four targets and could start slowly. Do not take him as anything more than a No. 3 receiver.
Chicago at Tennessee ... If the Bears get to the goal line, who gets the ball? Matt Forte stayed in at the goal line and scored after consecutive carries from the five-yard line in the biggest story of the game. He was the bright spot for the Bears with 74 yards and the score on 17 carries to go with one catch for 15 yards. With the goal line carries also in the mix, Forte is a good late No. 1 runner and a steal No. 2. ... Will Javon Ringer solidify the starting job in Tennessee should the Chris Johnson holdout last into the season? Ringer is still battling a hip injury and rookie Jamie Harper ran 13 times for 36 yards and a score with the starters. Harper looks very powerful for his size and would likely work in tandem with Ringer should Chris Johnson miss any meaningful games.
Dallas at Minnesota ... The Vikings offensive line has been drawing a lot of criticism so far; can they hold their own against Dallas and open running lanes? Yes they can. Adrian Peterson had plenty of running room as he gashed the 'Boys for 81 yards on 14 carries. I still have concerns about this Vikings offense in general, but AP will be good and likely has another Top 3 finish in his future. He is as safe as you can get at No. 1 or No. 2 overall alongside Ray Rice. ... If DeMarco Murray plays against the Vikes, will we get a glimpse of what his role will be in relation to pre-season sensation Felix Jones? Yes and No. Murray did not work in with Felix Jones (who punched in a five-yard touchdown run and continues to impress), but he looked good when given the ball. Murray ran for 32 yards on seven carries and added a seven-yard catch while showing that he is a good combo of speed and power. He is a must have if you take Felix and I expect Murray finishes as a solid No. 4 running back.
Seattle at Denver ... So far the Moreno/McGahee RBBC looks pretty even, with perhaps a few more touches per week for Moreno and the goal line work for McGahee. Will that trend continue? Yes it will. Knowshon Moreno was the more efficient back again, picking up 47 yards on 10 carries and adding one catch for 11 yards. Willis McGahee had 10 carries for 25 yards and scored yet another goal line touchdown. Moreno will end up with more yards, but without the easy scores he is a No. 3 back. McGahee is a great option late as your No. 4 runner and is a steal No.5. ... Can Tarvaris Jackson get this offense moving or will Seattle have to turn to the Charlie Whitehurst? I am still not impressed with Jackson after his best preseason outing in which he completed 13 of his 22 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. He will have a lot of weapons at his disposal, but he will have to play better than this. I wish they could have traded for Carson Palmer.
San Diego at Arizona ... Can Beanie Wells have the solid game that would make everyone feel comfortable with him as a low end No. 2 running back? No doubt about it. Wells is playing all three downs and is a great No. 2 running back for your teams. The best part is you can still get him as a No. 3 running back in all drafts. He ran 10 times for 63 yards and added one catch for five yards against the Chargers. He looked strong and fast, which is what made him so good at Ohio State. Big-time upside this year and no one on the roster is a threat to his carries. ... How will the time between Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert be split up? Some in San Diego think that both backs can go over 1,000 yards this year, but I still think Mathews leads in yards and Tolbert leads in scores. Mathews again looked like the better back as he ran 10 times for 69 yards. Now 48 yards came on a big run where he made one cut and was gone, but he has home run potential and if he can get 15-plus carries a week, he will be a nice surprise this year. Mike Tolbert saw seven carries for 26 yards, but was the team's third-down back and hauled in two passes for another 27 yards. I upped his receiving projections and see both backs as high upside No. 3 options on Draft Day.
New Orleans at Oakland ... How will Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas split up the carries and will Ingram continue to be the goal line back? They continued to work in tandem, but Ingram saw more rushes against Oakland. Ingram converted the team's first goal line chance with a touchdown and then Thomas got the second crack and scored as well. I think Ingram will end up with more scores and more carries, making him the first Saints back to draft and a solid No. 2/3 option. ... Will Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore continue to impress or can they slide under the radar one more week for your benefit on Draft Day? Moore sat out with an injury but will be ready for week 1. Meanwhile, potential breakout Graham saw eight targets (including at least one in the red zone) and caught five passes for 73 yards against the Raiders in the first half! He has been my No. 7 tight end for a while now and I think he is a great value at the TE spot. I would consider the elite tight ends to be seven deep now with Daniels and Graham joining the Top 5.
Hope that gives you some answers to the burning questions surrounding critical week 3 of the NFL pre-season. Good luck in your drafts!
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| Target Conversion Rate or Catch Rate (TCR): The percentage of a player's targets (passes thrown to them) that are converted into receptions. Over 60 percent is excellent, 66 percent is elite and under 52.5 percent is worrisome. Yards per Target (YPT): A player's receiving yards divided by his targets. In other words, the numbers of yards a team gains on average every time they attempt a pass to a certain player. Over 10 is exceptional, over 8 is solid and 6 or lower is horrendous. Red Zone Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 20 yard line Red Zone TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Red Zone opportunities that result in a TD Goal Line Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 5 yard line Goal Line TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Goal Line opportunities that result in a TD Consistency Rate: The percentage of quality starts a player gives you out of 16 games. For QBs that is a game with 300+ yards passing OR multiple TDs. For RBs/WRs: A game with 100+ yards rush/rec or a game with a TD. For TEs: A game with 60+ yards receiving or a TD. For a Kicker: A game with multiple FGs. Big Game Rate: The percentage of dominant starts a player gives you out of 16 games (games missed with injury count as a bad game since they do not help your Fantasy teams). For a QB that is a game with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs or 200+ yards and 3+ TDs. For a RB/WR that is a game with 100+ combined rush/rec yards and a TD or a game with multiple TDs. For a TE that is a game of 60+ yards and a TD, 100+ yards or a game with multiple TDs. |
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