Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
2013 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2011 Draft Prep: Target your QB late and win

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Before we get into the prediction about quarterbacks, I wanted to give you a little insight into my Fantasy history. My longest-running Fantasy league is entering its 10th season in 2011.

This is a 10-team keeper league, and when we started back in 2002 we didn't penalize quarterbacks for interceptions while still allowing six points for passing touchdowns. What this did was make quarterbacks the highest-scoring players by far, but it also allowed you to wait on drafting your No. 1 passer.

You could take a chance on a gunslinger (someone like Brett Favre or Eli Manning) because even if they had a big game with a couple of turnovers, all you got were the positive stats. You wanted quarterbacks who were throwing a lot, and it didn't matter if they took risks.

I've won this league three times, including last year, and only once since 2006 have I drafted a quarterback prior to Round 6. It's because of this league that I usually tend to wait on drafting a quarterback, and I find that strategy to be successful.

The prediction is here is that you will have a better Fantasy season if you wait on drafting a quarterback.

I find that the best way to build your Fantasy team is to pass on taking a quarterback early and select as many good running backs and wide receivers as possible. Obviously, if a star quarterback falls on Draft Day and presents good value – Michael Vick in Round 2, Tom Brady in Round 3, Drew Brees in Round 4 – then don't pass him up. But you don't have to reach for a quarterback to build a championship roster.

In looking at the players with the best winning percentage for Fantasy owners on CBSSports.com in 2010, only three quarterbacks drafted by at least Round 3 in a standard league had a winning percentage of .511 or higher, and that was Aaron Rodgers (.533), Philip Rivers (.533) and Brady (.512). What this shows is Rodgers, Rivers and Brady were all part of a Fantasy roster that won games at that percentage.

Quarterbacks who were undrafted or taken late that had a better winning percentage than .511 were Vick (.574), Jon Kitna (.522), David Garrard (.521), Ben Roethlisberger (.517) and Josh Freeman (.514). All of them were more successful for Fantasy owners than Brady, Brees (.508) and Peyton Manning (.505).

Follow us, Like us, Join us
Want more? Join the discussion on our Facebook page and Google+ and follow us on Twitter for additional insight while interacting with a community geared toward Fantasy Football.

Now, this doesn't mean those quarterbacks had better stats than Brady, Brees and Manning. Far from it. But it illustrates that most of those owners had quality players at running back, wide receiver and tight end and just needed enough from their quarterback like Kitna or Garrard to build a winning team.

What we're going to show you here using this year's ADP is what the core of a standard 12-team Fantasy league with a lineup of QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and TE would start to look like if you drafted a quarterback early or waited until at least Round 7. I selected players as close to the ADP as possible to fill open slots, and I picked players that I would take in that general area. I'll rate these drafts as if they actually happened.

Judge for yourself the team you like best, but I prefer to wait on a quarterback in the No. 7-12 range in the rankings and stockpile talent elsewhere. As it showed last year, you have a better chance to win that way.

Drafting a quarterback in Round 1

Round 1: Aaron Rodgers at No. 6
Round 2:: Frank Gore at No. 19
Round 3:: Reggie Wayne at No. 30
Round 4:: Wes Welker at No. 43
Round 5:: Mark Ingram at No. 54
Round 6:: Owen Daniels at No. 67
Round 7:: Marshawn Lynch at No. 78
This is an excellent team when you consider there's a Top 2 quarterback and a Top 10 running back (Gore), receiver (Wayne) and tight end (Daniels). Add in New England's No. 1 receiver in Welker and arguably the best rookie in Ingram, and there's plenty of talent, with Lynch also having upside. But as good as this team can be, Rodgers is the only superstar given that Gore and Wayne are on the downside of their careers, and Ingram still has plenty to prove. Because of Rodgers in Round 1, you're now chasing talent at the other positions for the most part.
Grade: B-minus

Drafting a quarterback in Round 2

Round 1:: Maurice Jones-Drew at No. 10
Round 2:: Drew Brees at No. 15
Round 3:: DeSean Jackson at No. 34
Round 4:: Shonn Greene at No. 39
Round 5:: Vernon Davis at No. 58
Round 6:: Mario Manningham at No. 63
Round 7:: Mike Tolbert at No. 82
It's difficult to argue with Brees and Jones-Drew to start your Fantasy team, and Jackson could be a No. 1 Fantasy receiver, with Greene also in line for a breakout season. Manningham is solid as a No. 2 receiver, and Davis is an elite tight end. And Tolbert in Round 7 is great value. But I don't know many Fantasy owners who are comfortable with Jackson as their best receiving threat. Taking Brees in Round 2 compared to a receiver like Larry Fitzgerald or Hakeem Nicks could be a mistake.
Grade: B

Drafting a quarterback in Round 3

Round 1:: Andre Johnson at No. 9
Round 2:: Darren McFadden at No. 16
Round 3:: Tony Romo at No. 33
Round 4:: Mike Williams of Tampa Bay at No. 40
Round 5:: BenJarvus Green-Ellis at No. 57
Round 6:: Chad Ochocinco at No. 64
Round 7:: Kellen Winslow at No. 81
I like the first three picks of this draft because you get the No. 1 receiver, a Top 10 running back and a Top 7 quarterback, and even Williams in Round 4 is excellent value. But I'm definitely not comfortable with Green-Ellis as my No. 2 running back (he's more of a No. 3 option or flex), and Ochocinco is not the best flex option based on his play in the preseason even though he was the best available player in that round based on his ADP. Winslow is good but not great, and this draft seemed to go downhill fast.
Grade: C-plus

Drafting a quarterback in Round 4

Round 1:: Michael Turner at No. 11
Round 2:: Rashard Mendenhall at No. 14
Round 3:: Miles Austin at No. 35
Round 4:: Matt Schaub at No. 38
Round 5:: Vernon Davis at No. 59
Round 6:: Jeremy Maclin at No. 62
Round 7:: Julio Jones at No. 83
While I'm not a fan of starting a receiver at the flex spot, especially a rookie like Jones, I like the way this team came together. There are two Top 12 running backs, two quality receivers now that Maclin is healthy, an elite tight end and a proven quarterback. This team needs to draft Isaac Redman with a late-round pick in case Mendenhall struggles this season with his workload, but overall this team should be in playoff contention this season.
Grade: B

Drafting a quarterback in Round 5

Round 1:: LeSean McCoy at No. 8
Round 2:: Frank Gore at No. 17
Round 3:: Mike Wallace at No. 32
Round 4:: Brandon Marshall at No. 41
Round 5:: Ben Roethlisberger at No. 56
Round 6:: Percy Harvin at No. 65
Round 7:: Kellen Winslow at No. 82
This is a playoff team because Roethlisberger presents excellent value as your starter, and you have two Top 10 running backs in McCoy and Gore. Wallace and Marshall are a great duo for your starting receivers, and Harvin has the chance for a breakout year in his third season. This is a good example of what happens when you wait on a quarterback and make quality selections with your first four picks. One more running back like a Tim Hightower will make this team complete.
Grade: B-plus

Drafting a quarterback in Round 6

Round 1:: Adrian Peterson at No. 1
Round 2:: Greg Jennings at No. 24
Round 3:: Hakeem Nicks at No. 25
Round 4:: Knowshon Moreno at No. 48
Round 5:: Jason Witten at No. 49
Round 6:: Josh Freeman at No. 72
Round 7:: Joseph Addai at No. 73
This is my favorite team thus far because Freeman is underrated as a quarterback, and you see the type of talent you can acquire if you wait to draft him in Round 6. How can you argue with an elite running back like Peterson, two standout receivers like Jennings and Nicks, a Top 3 tight end in Witten and then a capable flex option in Addai? This team has championship contender written all over it, especially if the reserves are quality players. And if you draft Freeman and are concerned about his ability, all you have to do is take someone like Sam Bradford or Kevin Kolb in Round 8 or 9.
Grade: A

Drafting a quarterback in Round 7

Round 1:: Roddy White at No. 12
Round 2:: Calvin Johnson at No. 13
Round 3:: Shonn Greene at No. 36
Round 4:: Felix Jones at No. 37
Round 5:: Vernon Davis at No. 60
Round 6:: Jeremy Maclin at No. 61
Round 7:: Matthew Stafford at No. 84
If you know anything about the way I draft you know I love the start to this team. Getting two stud receivers when drafting at the end of Round 1 is a great start, and then you can draft two running backs with upside like Greene and Jones. Davis is an elite tight end, and while I would prefer a running back at flex I'm OK with Maclin since he was the best talent on the board at that spot. Stafford obviously has some risk based on his injury history, but you can back him up with a safe No. 2 option like Joe Flacco or Eli Manning in Round 8 or 9.
Grade: A-minus

An expert's view …

CBS analyst Steve Beuerlein is a former NFL quarterback and an avid Fantasy Football owner. I spoke with him recently about some quarterbacks you can take with a mid- to late-round pick on Draft Day like Freeman, Stafford, Bradford and Kevin Kolb, and here's what he had to say.

On Freeman: It's an understatement that he made a big jump last year. The way he played was unbelievable. A lot of people didn't know who he was because he played for Tampa Bay, and they didn't get a lot of TV coverage. He's a top-notch quarterback, and he can make plays with his arm and his legs. He's established himself, and now the bar is high for him to do it again.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time all offseason as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe via iTunes

On Stafford: I don't think there's any reason to think he won't have a great year. With the guys they have on the outside, Matthew Stafford is set up to have a big season. He has all the tools. But the proof is in the pudding. If he can stay healthy, Stafford should play well this year.

On Bradford: That guy is going to be the standard bearer for many years to come. He played well last year with not a lot of talent around him. Let's face it, even though Steven Jackson is still good, he's not the same running back he was earlier in his career. Bradford showed me a lot as a rookie. He is going to be wowing people for many years.

On Kolb: He's going to be a fun one to watch. Kolb has the weapons, especially with Larry Fitzgerald, and I like the move to get Todd Heap. He has good weapons and a good coach that will allow him to carry the football team. I'm still not 100 percent convinced he's worth what they paid him. But he has a bright future, and this is a good spot for him.

I asked Beuerlein if he had to pick one of these quarterbacks to start an NFL team with, and his answer was somewhat surprising.

Said Beuerlein:"If I was pressed it would have to be Bradford. Second would have to be Freeman because I've seen it from him. He's a proven commodity. Stafford would be next, but he has a lot of variables."

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

  •  
 
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Anthony Davis has shoulder surgery
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) 49ers right tackle Anthony Davis had surgery on his left shoulder recently, reports CSNBayArea.com. Davis, who has not missed a start in his four NFL seasons, said he suffered the injury Dec. 15 against the Buccaneers.

Davis posted a photo on Instagram with his left arm in a sling.

“Never made excuses, just got the job done,” Davis wrote. “This game has a way of seeing what you're really made of. One of the reasons I love it. Next season I get to use both arms."


Matthew Stafford: New offense will be just as aggressive
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford began learning the team's new offense this week. While the scheme likely won't be as pass-heavy and will include more short crossing routes, Stafford said Detroit won't sacrifice its aggressiveness, reports the Detroit News.

“We were a pretty aggressive offense last year,” Stafford said. “And I am sure with some of the guys we have on the outside to make plays and in the backfield, whether it’s throwing the ball 50 yards in the air or throwing it 5 yards and letting guys run with it, we’re always about trying to make big plays.

“We are trying to be smart with the ball, too, but big plays in this league lead to points which inevitably lead to wins."


Evan Mathis won't hold out
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) Eagles guard Evan Mathis, who's unhappy with his contract, said he won't hold out, reports CSNPhilly.com. Mathis is scheduled to make $5.15 million this year.

He vowed that the contract issue won't become a distraction.

“I’m not going to let anything distract me from my job, which is to play football," he said. "And I can handle anything you guys (reporters) throw at me. So that’s not going to distract me. If you want to keep asking questions, I’m here to answer them. So it doesn’t really bother me, and if people want to keep tweeting to me I’m right there. I’m wide open. I’m easy to get to, so it’s not going to be a distraction."


Panthers exercise 5th-year option on Cam Newton
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) The Panthers made it official, excercising the 2015 option on quarterback Cam Newton, reports CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora. The option is worth about $15 million.

Newton is recovering from ankle surgery but is expected back for training camp.


Armanti Edwards trying out for Seahawks
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) Receiver Armanti Edwards is working out for the Seahawks, reports ESPN's Adam Caplan. He had a 10-yard catch for the Browns last season before going on IR with an ankle injury in November.

Robert Griffin III embracing Jay Gruden's approach
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III declined to compare new coach Jay Gruden with former coach Mike Shanahan, but RG3 made it clear he's enjoying working with Gruden.

"I just know that Jay sees things from a quarterback’s perspective, having been a quarterback, and being a younger coach," Griffin told the Washington Post. "He knows quarterbacks need weapons, so we’ve added weapons. He knows quarterbacks need protection, so we’ve added protection. Really, in this league and this game, it’s about making the quarterback comfortable, and that’s what he’s in the process of doing, and at the end of the day, it’s on me to make everything work, and that’s what I’m going to do.

"Coach is giving me all the proper tools, and he’s putting the tools in the shed," Griffin added. "I’m ready to go to work. I’ve got my hard hat on, and I think everybody else [does] too."

Griffin told the paper his top offseason priorities are to re-establish sound fundamentals and regain confidence after a year he described as “a whole journey of second-guessing and wondering."


A.J. Green bulks up to 214 pounds
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) Bengals receiver A.J. Green has added six pounds to 214, mostly in the upper body, reports the team's website. The three-time Pro Bowler said he wants to get more physical so he can better beat coverage at the line of scrimmage.

The 6-4 Green set career highs with 98 catches for 1,426 yards last season and matched his career best with 11 touchdowns.


Victor Cruz not sold on Rueben Randle?
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) Giants receiver Victor Cruz doesn't sound certain Rueben Randle can ably replace Hakeem Nicks. In an interview with NFL Network, Cruz suggested the Giants take a receiver at No. 12 overall in the draft because the team "definitely" needs help at the position.

"A (big-play receiver) is something we need in this offense to be successful," Cruz said. "An outside guy that can do the job and that can help fuel all the other receivers in the locker room and put some fire up under them to get them where they have to be."

Cruz hopes the G-Men take Mike Evans, a 6-5 receiver out of Texas A&M.


Jeremy Maclin: Offense will be 'just fine' without D-Jax
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin said DeSean Jackson is one of the league's better playmakers, but Philly will be "just fine" without him, reports the Philadelphia Inquirer.

"I have faith in the offense and I have faith in the guys that we have in the locker room and on the football field," Maclin said. "Chip said it himself: the offense is not built around one guy. We have multiple guys that go out there and make plays, so I'm looking forward to seeing what we can do this year."


Aldon Smith's case referred for 'misdemeanor consideration'
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(4/24/2014) 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith, accused of making a fake bomb threat at LAX airport April 13, had his case referred for "misdemeanor consideration" by the Los Angeles County District Attorney, reports the San Jose Mercury News.

Smith is participating in the team's offseason program this week. He made the alleged threat during security screening, the paper said.

Smith also is scheduled to appear in court Tuesday on charges stemming from an alleged drunk driving accident and felony weapons possession, the report said.


 
 
 
Rankings