Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Play Fantasy Use your Fantasy skills to win Cash Prizes. Join or start a league today. Play Now
      
Fantasy Football Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Playoff Challenge
Commissioner
Prize Leagues
Free
Office Pool Manager
Game Pick'em
Player Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2014 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 
 

2011 Draft Prep: Target your QB late and win

Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Before we get into the prediction about quarterbacks, I wanted to give you a little insight into my Fantasy history. My longest-running Fantasy league is entering its 10th season in 2011.

This is a 10-team keeper league, and when we started back in 2002 we didn't penalize quarterbacks for interceptions while still allowing six points for passing touchdowns. What this did was make quarterbacks the highest-scoring players by far, but it also allowed you to wait on drafting your No. 1 passer.

You could take a chance on a gunslinger (someone like Brett Favre or Eli Manning) because even if they had a big game with a couple of turnovers, all you got were the positive stats. You wanted quarterbacks who were throwing a lot, and it didn't matter if they took risks.

I've won this league three times, including last year, and only once since 2006 have I drafted a quarterback prior to Round 6. It's because of this league that I usually tend to wait on drafting a quarterback, and I find that strategy to be successful.

The prediction is here is that you will have a better Fantasy season if you wait on drafting a quarterback.

I find that the best way to build your Fantasy team is to pass on taking a quarterback early and select as many good running backs and wide receivers as possible. Obviously, if a star quarterback falls on Draft Day and presents good value – Michael Vick in Round 2, Tom Brady in Round 3, Drew Brees in Round 4 – then don't pass him up. But you don't have to reach for a quarterback to build a championship roster.

In looking at the players with the best winning percentage for Fantasy owners on CBSSports.com in 2010, only three quarterbacks drafted by at least Round 3 in a standard league had a winning percentage of .511 or higher, and that was Aaron Rodgers (.533), Philip Rivers (.533) and Brady (.512). What this shows is Rodgers, Rivers and Brady were all part of a Fantasy roster that won games at that percentage.

Quarterbacks who were undrafted or taken late that had a better winning percentage than .511 were Vick (.574), Jon Kitna (.522), David Garrard (.521), Ben Roethlisberger (.517) and Josh Freeman (.514). All of them were more successful for Fantasy owners than Brady, Brees (.508) and Peyton Manning (.505).

Follow us, Like us, Join us
Want more? Join the discussion on our Facebook page and Google+ and follow us on Twitter for additional insight while interacting with a community geared toward Fantasy Football.

Now, this doesn't mean those quarterbacks had better stats than Brady, Brees and Manning. Far from it. But it illustrates that most of those owners had quality players at running back, wide receiver and tight end and just needed enough from their quarterback like Kitna or Garrard to build a winning team.

What we're going to show you here using this year's ADP is what the core of a standard 12-team Fantasy league with a lineup of QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and TE would start to look like if you drafted a quarterback early or waited until at least Round 7. I selected players as close to the ADP as possible to fill open slots, and I picked players that I would take in that general area. I'll rate these drafts as if they actually happened.

Judge for yourself the team you like best, but I prefer to wait on a quarterback in the No. 7-12 range in the rankings and stockpile talent elsewhere. As it showed last year, you have a better chance to win that way.

Drafting a quarterback in Round 1

Round 1: Aaron Rodgers at No. 6
Round 2:: Frank Gore at No. 19
Round 3:: Reggie Wayne at No. 30
Round 4:: Wes Welker at No. 43
Round 5:: Mark Ingram at No. 54
Round 6:: Owen Daniels at No. 67
Round 7:: Marshawn Lynch at No. 78
This is an excellent team when you consider there's a Top 2 quarterback and a Top 10 running back (Gore), receiver (Wayne) and tight end (Daniels). Add in New England's No. 1 receiver in Welker and arguably the best rookie in Ingram, and there's plenty of talent, with Lynch also having upside. But as good as this team can be, Rodgers is the only superstar given that Gore and Wayne are on the downside of their careers, and Ingram still has plenty to prove. Because of Rodgers in Round 1, you're now chasing talent at the other positions for the most part.
Grade: B-minus

Drafting a quarterback in Round 2

Round 1:: Maurice Jones-Drew at No. 10
Round 2:: Drew Brees at No. 15
Round 3:: DeSean Jackson at No. 34
Round 4:: Shonn Greene at No. 39
Round 5:: Vernon Davis at No. 58
Round 6:: Mario Manningham at No. 63
Round 7:: Mike Tolbert at No. 82
It's difficult to argue with Brees and Jones-Drew to start your Fantasy team, and Jackson could be a No. 1 Fantasy receiver, with Greene also in line for a breakout season. Manningham is solid as a No. 2 receiver, and Davis is an elite tight end. And Tolbert in Round 7 is great value. But I don't know many Fantasy owners who are comfortable with Jackson as their best receiving threat. Taking Brees in Round 2 compared to a receiver like Larry Fitzgerald or Hakeem Nicks could be a mistake.
Grade: B

Drafting a quarterback in Round 3

Round 1:: Andre Johnson at No. 9
Round 2:: Darren McFadden at No. 16
Round 3:: Tony Romo at No. 33
Round 4:: Mike Williams of Tampa Bay at No. 40
Round 5:: BenJarvus Green-Ellis at No. 57
Round 6:: Chad Ochocinco at No. 64
Round 7:: Kellen Winslow at No. 81
I like the first three picks of this draft because you get the No. 1 receiver, a Top 10 running back and a Top 7 quarterback, and even Williams in Round 4 is excellent value. But I'm definitely not comfortable with Green-Ellis as my No. 2 running back (he's more of a No. 3 option or flex), and Ochocinco is not the best flex option based on his play in the preseason even though he was the best available player in that round based on his ADP. Winslow is good but not great, and this draft seemed to go downhill fast.
Grade: C-plus

Drafting a quarterback in Round 4

Round 1:: Michael Turner at No. 11
Round 2:: Rashard Mendenhall at No. 14
Round 3:: Miles Austin at No. 35
Round 4:: Matt Schaub at No. 38
Round 5:: Vernon Davis at No. 59
Round 6:: Jeremy Maclin at No. 62
Round 7:: Julio Jones at No. 83
While I'm not a fan of starting a receiver at the flex spot, especially a rookie like Jones, I like the way this team came together. There are two Top 12 running backs, two quality receivers now that Maclin is healthy, an elite tight end and a proven quarterback. This team needs to draft Isaac Redman with a late-round pick in case Mendenhall struggles this season with his workload, but overall this team should be in playoff contention this season.
Grade: B

Drafting a quarterback in Round 5

Round 1:: LeSean McCoy at No. 8
Round 2:: Frank Gore at No. 17
Round 3:: Mike Wallace at No. 32
Round 4:: Brandon Marshall at No. 41
Round 5:: Ben Roethlisberger at No. 56
Round 6:: Percy Harvin at No. 65
Round 7:: Kellen Winslow at No. 82
This is a playoff team because Roethlisberger presents excellent value as your starter, and you have two Top 10 running backs in McCoy and Gore. Wallace and Marshall are a great duo for your starting receivers, and Harvin has the chance for a breakout year in his third season. This is a good example of what happens when you wait on a quarterback and make quality selections with your first four picks. One more running back like a Tim Hightower will make this team complete.
Grade: B-plus

Drafting a quarterback in Round 6

Round 1:: Adrian Peterson at No. 1
Round 2:: Greg Jennings at No. 24
Round 3:: Hakeem Nicks at No. 25
Round 4:: Knowshon Moreno at No. 48
Round 5:: Jason Witten at No. 49
Round 6:: Josh Freeman at No. 72
Round 7:: Joseph Addai at No. 73
This is my favorite team thus far because Freeman is underrated as a quarterback, and you see the type of talent you can acquire if you wait to draft him in Round 6. How can you argue with an elite running back like Peterson, two standout receivers like Jennings and Nicks, a Top 3 tight end in Witten and then a capable flex option in Addai? This team has championship contender written all over it, especially if the reserves are quality players. And if you draft Freeman and are concerned about his ability, all you have to do is take someone like Sam Bradford or Kevin Kolb in Round 8 or 9.
Grade: A

Drafting a quarterback in Round 7

Round 1:: Roddy White at No. 12
Round 2:: Calvin Johnson at No. 13
Round 3:: Shonn Greene at No. 36
Round 4:: Felix Jones at No. 37
Round 5:: Vernon Davis at No. 60
Round 6:: Jeremy Maclin at No. 61
Round 7:: Matthew Stafford at No. 84
If you know anything about the way I draft you know I love the start to this team. Getting two stud receivers when drafting at the end of Round 1 is a great start, and then you can draft two running backs with upside like Greene and Jones. Davis is an elite tight end, and while I would prefer a running back at flex I'm OK with Maclin since he was the best talent on the board at that spot. Stafford obviously has some risk based on his injury history, but you can back him up with a safe No. 2 option like Joe Flacco or Eli Manning in Round 8 or 9.
Grade: A-minus

An expert's view …

CBS analyst Steve Beuerlein is a former NFL quarterback and an avid Fantasy Football owner. I spoke with him recently about some quarterbacks you can take with a mid- to late-round pick on Draft Day like Freeman, Stafford, Bradford and Kevin Kolb, and here's what he had to say.

On Freeman: It's an understatement that he made a big jump last year. The way he played was unbelievable. A lot of people didn't know who he was because he played for Tampa Bay, and they didn't get a lot of TV coverage. He's a top-notch quarterback, and he can make plays with his arm and his legs. He's established himself, and now the bar is high for him to do it again.

Check out our Fantasy Football podcast!
There is no better source for entertaining Fantasy advice than our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Adam Aizer will help you pass the time as you anticipate Draft Day 2014!
Latest episode | Subscribe today!

On Stafford: I don't think there's any reason to think he won't have a great year. With the guys they have on the outside, Matthew Stafford is set up to have a big season. He has all the tools. But the proof is in the pudding. If he can stay healthy, Stafford should play well this year.

On Bradford: That guy is going to be the standard bearer for many years to come. He played well last year with not a lot of talent around him. Let's face it, even though Steven Jackson is still good, he's not the same running back he was earlier in his career. Bradford showed me a lot as a rookie. He is going to be wowing people for many years.

On Kolb: He's going to be a fun one to watch. Kolb has the weapons, especially with Larry Fitzgerald, and I like the move to get Todd Heap. He has good weapons and a good coach that will allow him to carry the football team. I'm still not 100 percent convinced he's worth what they paid him. But he has a bright future, and this is a good spot for him.

I asked Beuerlein if he had to pick one of these quarterbacks to start an NFL team with, and his answer was somewhat surprising.

Said Beuerlein:"If I was pressed it would have to be Bradford. Second would have to be Freeman because I've seen it from him. He's a proven commodity. Stafford would be next, but he has a lot of variables."

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Jamey at @JameyEisenberg and on Facebook .

Get player news notifications, manage your team and check scores
- all updated in real time. Download the CBS Fantasy App.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Google Plus
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Jeremy Kerley worth more than a look
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(12:21 pm ET) With Eric Decker's hamstring continuing to cause him problems, Jeremy Kerley stepped up in a big way in Week 3 against the Bears. And, though his overall numbers this season are not particularly impressive, there are reasons to think Kerley might be a worthwhile Fantasy option moving forward.

Kerley had just 60 yards on eight receptions and no touchdowns through the first two games, before recording seven catches for 81 yards and a score in Week 3. However, his overall numbers would look a lot more impressive of the 36-yard touchdown he hauled in late in Week 2 had counted -- as well all know, that play was blown dead by a late timeout from the Jets' sideline.

Kerley leads the Jets in targets, with 23.1 percent of the team's passes going his way through three games. That might not be a sustainable number, but he has clearly developed a rapport with Geno Smith. As long as Decker's hamstring remains an issue -- and it seems like it is going to be so -- Kerley certainly deserves to be owned in more than seven percent of leagues.  


Steelers hopeful Dri Archer, Ramon Foster return Sunday
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:19 pm ET) Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said he is hopeful running back Dri Archer (ankle) and left guard Ramon Foster (ankle) can play Week 4 against the Bucs. Archer has missed two games and Foster sat out Week 3.

Panthers sign D.J. Smith
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:19 pm ET) The Panthers signed linebacker D.J. Smith, who was on the practice squad until getting cut last month.

Ryan Shazier, Ike Taylor ruled out for Week 4
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:16 pm ET) Steelers coach Mike Tomlin confirmed Tuesday linebacker Ryan Shazier (knee) and Ike Taylor (forearm) will be out Week 4 against the Bucs. Taylor is expected to be out several weeks, but Tomlin deemed Shazier's injury "less significant."

Panthers put Mike Tolbert on short-term IR
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:15 pm ET) The Panthers placed running back Mike Tolbert on Injured Reserve/Designated to Return with a hairline fracture in his knee. He's eligible to return Week 13 at Minnesota.

Mychal Kendricks unable to practice
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(12:12 pm ET) Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks, who missed the win over Washington with a calf injury, remained sidelined at Tuesday's practice, reports CSNPhilly.com. Philly visits the 49ers on Sunday.

Browns not looking to change defensive playcalling plan
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(12:12 pm ET) The Browns head into their Week 4 bye looking to work on some things defensively, as they are allowing 425.7 yards (31st) and 25.7 points (t-24th) per game. 

Though, head coach Mike Pettine -- who is a former defensive coordinator -- said he won't become more active in calling plays on gameday and first-year defensive coordinator Jim O'Neil will continue to work from the sidelines.

"We collaborate on (the calls)," Pettine said, per Cleveland.com. "The most important thing that we do is we build the game plan together. We build the call sheet together. Sometimes, calling the game is -- for us defensively the way we're set up -- it is very overrated because in a lot of way the call sheets are like a flow chart.

"(O'Neil) has a really good feel for it, and at this point, I don't see any need to change it. As we go on this week and do our self-scout and evaluate a little bit and Jim and I get a chance to spend a little time together, we'll discuss it. At this point, I would say he's calling the majority of it, but like I said, it's something that I'm very involved with, very much on board with. If he doesn't feel good about a call he'll ask me for one or I'll overrule him if I have to."


Jordan Matthews worth a look on waivers
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(12:04 pm ET) Eagles wide receiver Jordan Matthews entered the season as everyone's favorite sleeper receiver. Matthews impressed at the combine after setting SEC recorded in career receptions and receiving yards, and entered the season as the favorite to serve as the Eagles' No. 3 wideout.

Matthews started to show some of that considerable potential in Week 3 against Washington, and is sure to be a hot commodity on the waiver wires this week. Matthews hauled in eight of the nine passes thrown his way for 59 yards Sunday, including a pair of 11-yard touchdowns.

Matthews was a true third receiver for the Eagles in Week 3, as he played 63 percent of the team's offensive snaps in the shootout. That represents a slight improvement from the first few weeks, when he played in 58 percent of the team's offense snaps. He is still well behind Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper in the receiving hierarchy, but the Eagles have been pass-happy enough (3rd in the NFL in attempts) to keep multiple receivers happy.

We still want to see more overall production from Matthews, but the fact that Foles was looking for him so much in Week 3 is a good sign moving forward. He is worth adding on waivers this week at least ahead of fellow Week-3 breakout receiver John Brown.


Cam Newton not a running threat right now
by Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
(11:55 am ET) Panthers quarterback Cam Newton had a career-low two carries in the Week 3 loss to the Steelers. The team did not call any zone-read rushing plays for him, reports the Charlotte Observer.

Newton had offseason ankle surgery and has not been a running threat this season, the paper said.

"We're going to keep watching and monitoring him and keep working to where we can work him into more of the running game, and pick and choose our spots," offensive coordinator Mike Shula said. "It's one of the best things he does. He's really good at it. Just because he's a little beat-up doesn't necessarily mean we're going to eliminate him running the football. But we also have to be smart about it."


Report: Eric Berry has high ankle sprain
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com
(11:41 am ET) Chiefs safety Eric Berry is dealing with a high ankle sprain, a source told ESPN. Berry was inactive Week 3 at Miami.

 
 
 
Rankings