Sep. 21, 2011

Week 3 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Disclaimer ... Before you start reading, please understand that we are not in the business of stating the obvious and wasting your time (or ours), so you won't be reading here why you need to start Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson or any other top-tier players.

Someone needs to remind Cam Newton that he's a rookie quarterback. He's not supposed to be playing at this level.

Newton has been the best surprise for Fantasy owners through the first two games of the season. He enters Week 3 as the No. 3 quarterback in standard leagues behind Tom Brady and Drew Brees, and he is showing no signs of slowing down, especially with a matchup against Jacksonville.

The problem for Fantasy owners is who to bench to get Newton active. He wasn't drafted in the majority of standard leagues, let alone looked at as a starting option. But after consecutive 400-yard outings against Arizona and Green Bay, Newton should be considered a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback against the Jaguars.

The suggestion here is to start Newton over Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman, who were all drafted as No. 1 quarterbacks. Newton just has a higher ceiling this week, and he's playing better than all of them.

Now, there is the chance he could start to struggle. Maybe that happened last week with his three-interception performance against the Packers, and he does have four interceptions through two games. The Panthers also should have more success running the ball against Jacksonville than they showed so far, which could cut into Newton's production.

But he should still be able to take advantage of this Jaguars defense to be a successful Fantasy quarterback. Jacksonville allowed Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez to each throw for two passing touchdowns in the first two games, and the Jaguars allowed multiple passing touchdowns nine times last season.

Newton also is making plays with his legs, gaining 71 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and he's accounted for at least 45 touches (passing and rushing) in each game. He has five total touchdowns on the year.

At some point Newton is going to start playing like a rookie. But until that happens, Fantasy owners should rely on him as a starter, especially this week in what should be his first NFL victory against Jacksonville.

Quarterback

Start 'Em

Rex Grossman (at DAL): Grossman continues to show that coach Mike Shanahan knew what he was doing in going with him as the starter. In five starts for the Redskins going back to last year, Grossman has four games with at least 290 passing yards and multiple touchdowns. Last year at the Cowboys, Grossman had 322 passing yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. He should continue to play well again this week and is worth starting in all formats.
Ben Roethlisberger (at IND): There is definitely a chance the Steelers run all over the Colts this week, but Roethlisberger should still do enough to be successful. He had 298 passing yards and a touchdown last week against Seattle, which was 17 Fantasy points in a standard league, but I'm expecting more in this matchup. There are some Fantasy owners concerned about his lack of overall production, but don't give up on Roethlisberger yet, including this week.
Kevin Kolb (at SEA): Kolb has gotten off to a solid start in two games with the Cardinals with an average of 21 Fantasy points against Carolina and Washington. The Seahawks have only given up two total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in Alex Smith and Roethlisberger, but Kolb already has four passing touchdowns on the season. Last year, Derek Anderson managed 322 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception against the Seahawks, and Kolb is clearly better than Anderson.
Matt Ryan (at TB): I don't love Ryan this week since he's better at home than on the road, but this isn't exactly a daunting matchup. The Bucs struggled in pass defense in Week 1 against Detroit with three touchdowns allowed to Matthew Stafford, and Ryan is coming off a four-touchdown performance against a quality secondary for the Eagles. Ryan is a low-end No. 1option in 12-team standard leagues, but I would still give him the starting nod this week unless you have someone better on your bench.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. NE): Fitzpatrick doesn't have the best history against the Patriots with three touchdowns and six interceptions in three previous meetings. But this is a different New England defense, which has allowed 794 passing yards, 71 rushing yards and five total touchdowns to Chad Henne and Philip Rivers in two games. Fitzpatrick also is playing at a high level with 472 passing yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in two games at Kansas City and against Oakland. This is a tougher matchup on paper for Fitzpatrick, but he should continue to thrive based on the way New England's defense has looked to start the season.

Sit 'Em

Eli Manning (at PHI): Manning is coming off a decent game against the Rams last week with 18 Fantasy points, but he might struggle to reach that production this week against the Eagles. In his past four meetings with the Eagles in Philadelphia, Manning has less than 225 passing yards in each outing with six touchdowns and six interceptions over that span. Philadelphia just gave up four passing touchdowns to Ryan, but they should clamp down on Manning this week.
Chad Henne (at CLE): The Browns haven't exactly faced the best passing attacks in the NFL with matchups against Cincinnati and Indianapolis, but they have held both teams under 200 passing yards with just three touchdowns and one interception. Henne faced the Browns last year and had 174 passing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. And in his past five road starts he has three touchdowns, six interceptions and two fumbles.
Kyle Orton (at TEN): The Titans are coming off an impressive performance defensively against the Ravens, holding Joe Flacco to 197 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Tennessee has yet to allow 200 passing yards in a game, and Orton has struggled on the road. In his past four road starts he has two touchdowns and five interceptions while averaging just 218 passing yards per game.
Jay Cutler (vs. GB): Cutler has a bad history against the Packers, and we're not talking about the knee injury he sustained in the NFC Championship Game that caused a lot of headlines. In his past five meetings with Green Bay, Cutler has averaged just 228 passing yards with five touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Packers have been miserable in pass defense this year against Drew Brees and Newton and are without safety Nick Collins (neck) for the rest of the year, but the Bears are also without rookie tackle Gabe Carimi (knee), which will further weaken and already struggling offensive line.
Sam Bradford (vs. BAL): Bradford needs to be more efficient in the red zone, which would help his Fantasy value. He had the Rams inside the red zone three times in the first three quarters last week at the Giants, but St. Louis settled for three field goals. Otherwise his night was solid with 331 passing yards and a touchdown. He could have a similar game this week against the Ravens, but the potential for turnovers is higher. Baltimore has allowed 638 passing yards through two games against Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck, but they have allowed just two touchdowns with four interceptions.

Bust alert: Josh Freeman (vs. ATL): Freeman was great last season at eliminating mistakes with nearly a 5-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio. But so far this season he already has two interceptions through two games with only two touchdowns. This week he's facing a Falcons defense that had three of his six interceptions in 2010, and he has only one game with more than 200 passing yards against Atlanta in four meetings, including none in the past three matchups. Freeman should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback this week.

Running back

Start 'Em

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (at BUF): If you bought into Green-Ellis this season then he's doing exactly what you expected with 24 carries for 104 yards and two touchdowns against Miami and San Diego. Scoring is the key to his production, and the Bills have not been good in stopping opposing running backs. Going back to last year, Buffalo has allowed either a touchdown or 100 yards rushing to an opposing running back in nine consecutive games. Green-Ellis also has double digits in Fantasy points in three of his past four meetings with the Bills.
Ben Tate (at NO): Tate has done a great job in helping the Texans replace Arian Foster (hamstring), who could be out or limited again this week. He has 47 carries for 219 yards and a touchdown in two games against Indianapolis and Miami, and he should be started again this week as no worse than a flex option. The Saints have allowed double digits in Fantasy points to a running back in both games this season with James Starks and Matt Forte, and Tate should make it three in a row. He is a solid Fantasy option in all formats until Foster returns at 100 percent.
Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert (vs. KC): The Chargers should be able to get enough production out of both running backs this week that each should be quality starting options in all Fantasy leagues. Mathews is showing his skills as an all-around running back, while Tolbert is proving to be an excellent receiver and goal-line option. Last week at New England, Mathews had 12 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown and seven catches for 62 yards. Tolbert scored three touchdowns in Week 1 against Minnesota and has 17 catches in two games. Look for both to shine against the lowly Chiefs.
Fred Jackson (vs. NE): Jackson was great as the Start of the Week in Week 2 with 140 total yards and two touchdowns against Oakland, and as I pointed out last week, he's great at home. He has at least 90 total yards or a touchdown in his past five home games with 502 rushing yards and three touchdowns and 16 catches for 178 yards and two touchdowns over that span. He also has at least 112 total yards in three of his past five meetings with the Patriots. He is a quality No. 2 Fantasy running back this week.
Mark Ingram (vs. HOU): This will be the game that puts all Ingram owners at ease because he should have his first quality production after two dismal starts. Ingram had 27 carries for just 91 yards and no touchdowns against Green Bay and Chicago, and many Fantasy owners are ready to hit the panic button. The Texans have done well with their run defense so far this season, but in Week 2 they allowed over 100 rushing yards to fellow rookie Daniel Thomas. They have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, but look for Ingram to score in this matchup.

Sit 'Em

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Steven Jackson (vs. BAL): Jackson is expected to return this week after sitting out in Week 2 with a quad injury. But he is not going to be effective against the Ravens, who shut down Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson in consecutive weeks. Keep Jackson reserved for one more week and then use him as a starter in Week 4 against the Redskins.
Felix Jones (vs. WAS): Jones is expected to play this week despite suffering a shoulder injury in Week 2 at San Francisco, but we saw what he looked like playing hurt, which wasn't pretty. Jones had nine carries for 25 yards and one catch for 5 yards against the 49ers. He had a good game against the Redskins in their previous meeting last year with 147 total yards, but he has no touchdowns against Washington in five matchups. With his condition, look for the Cowboys to rotate DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice, and Jones should only be used as a flex option this week.
Thomas Jones (at SD): Fantasy owners sprinted to the waiver wire this week to add Jones with Jamaal Charles (knee) now out for the season. I heard one owner bid $65 out of a $100 budget, which is way too much. This week, Jones should struggle against the Chargers, and he should not be started even if you need a direct replacement for Charles. The first time you should consider using Jones is Week 5 at the Colts.
Joseph Addai (vs. PIT): Addai played well against the Browns last week with 101 total yards, but this is a much tougher defense he is facing in the Steelers. Addai is actually averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the season, but he hasn't scored a touchdown and is losing carries to rookie Delone Carter. Neither running back should find much success in this matchup, and Addai should be considered a risky option in most standard formats with Peyton Manning (neck) out.
Reggie Bush (at CLE): I was counting on Daniel Thomas to eventually take over as the best running back for the Dolphins, but I expected that to happen later in the year. It was clear in Week 2 against Houston that Thomas is better suited to be an every-down back. He had 18 carries for 107 yards in his NFL debut, while Bush was held to six carries for 18 yards and one catch for 3 yards. Bush will be more involved this week, but he's also dealing with a groin injury. Thomas is the Dolphins running back to rely on this week in what should be a favorable matchup.

Bust alert: Cedric Benson (vs. SF): Benson could be in for tough sledding in Week 3 against the 49ers. After two weeks, the 49ers have allowed the fewest Fantasy points to opposing running backs. They have yet to allow a rushing touchdown and have held running backs to 44.5 yards per game, and they have the longest streak of not allowing a 100 yard rushing performance at 24 games. Keep in mind that the 49ers faced the Seahawks and Cowboys in the first two games of the season, two teams that are not the strongest on the ground. However, the 49ers are a very stout team up front and have an excellent linebacker corps, making them tough against the run.

Wide receiver

Start 'Em

Santana Moss (at DAL): In five games with Grossman as his starting quarterback, Moss has 33 catches for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Included in those outings is last year at Dallas when Moss had eight catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns. The Cowboys secondary remains a work in progress, and they have allowed two touchdowns to wide receivers this year with Plaxico Burress in Week 1 and Kyle Williams last week. Moss might not score this week, but he's averaging seven catches for 74 yards with Grossman. He's almost a lock for at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league.
Steve Smith (vs. JAC): If Smith continues to play at this level then this is the last time you will see him listed as a starter here. He has 14 catches for 334 yards and two touchdowns on the season, and Newton has helped him get back to playing at an elite level. The Jaguars struggle with No. 1 receivers as Kenny Britt (five catches for 136 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1) and Santonio Holmes (three catches for 42 yards and a touchdown in Week 2) have shown so far this year. Look for Smith to have another outstanding game this week and start him in all leagues.
A.J. Green (vs. SF): Green is coming off an amazing performance in Week 2 at Denver with 10 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown, and he has two touchdowns in his first two NFL games. He could make it three in a row against the 49ers since San Francisco leads the league with five touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. Three receivers have gained at least 80 yards against the 49ers already with Doug Baldwin, Miles Austin and Jesse Holley. There is a lot to like about Green this week.
Jordy Nelson (at CHI): I'm going to roll with Nelson until he fails because he's produced now in consecutive games with double digits in Fantasy points against New Orleans and Chicago. Nelson played well against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game last year with four catches for 67 yards. In fact, going back to last year's playoffs, Nelson has at least six Fantasy points in five consecutive games with four touchdowns over that span.
Nate Burleson (at MIN): Burleson likes facing the Vikings, one of his former teams, since he has double digits in Fantasy points in two previous meetings, including last year when he had six catches for 83 yards and a touchdown and one carry for 20 yards. He also has at least eight Fantasy points in two games this year against Tampa Bay and Kansas City with 12 catches for 153 yards over that span. Minnesota has only allowed one receiver to score this year, but the Vikings should struggle with this entire passing attack for the Lions.

Sit 'Em

Dwayne Bowe (at SD): The Chargers have done a good job of taking away Bowe, especially recently. In two games against San Diego last year, Bowe combined for two catches and 13 yards. Granted, one of those was a rain-soaked game in Week 1, but the Chiefs offense is a mess right now. Bowe did have five catches for 101 yards last week at Detroit, but with Charles now out opposing defenses will focus all their attention on Bowe. He should only be used as a No. 3 Fantasy wide receiver at best this week.
Mario Manningham (at PHI): You're not going to bench Hakeem Nicks this week even though he has a tough matchup with the Eagles, but you can sit Manningham. He is expected to play this week despite a concussion in Week 2 against the Rams, but he is still looking for his first touchdown this year. The Eagles, despite allowing four passing touchdowns last week, have only allowed one touchdown to an opposing receiver this year, and no receiver has gained more than 50 yards.
Denarius Moore (vs. NYJ): Moore was fantastic in Week 2 at Buffalo with five catches for 146 yards and a touchdown, and he should be headed for a big year. But this week, he's headed for Revis Island, and the Jets should be able to shut down Moore with their cornerback tandem of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Jason Campbell will take some shots down the field at Moore, but the Jets should be able to negate his production. Stash him for now, but don't plan on starting him this week in the majority of leagues.
Brandon Lloyd (at TEN): Lloyd was a surprise inactive last week against Cincinnati with a groin injury, but he should return this week against the Titans. He might not be at 100 percent, and he doesn't have the best matchup since Tennessee has yet to allow a touchdown or more than 55 receiving yards to an opposing receiver. Granted, one of those games was against Jacksonville in Week 1, but the Titans shut down Anquan Boldin in Week 2 with just three catches for 46 yards. And with the emergence of Eric Decker, Orton now has another option in the passing game that he can use.
Davone Bess (vs. CLE): The Browns secondary is turning into a pleasant surprise. They have only allowed one touchdown to an opposing receiver this year, and that came on broken coverage against Green. You're not going to bench Brandon Marshall this week, but you should bench Bess. He had six catches for 67 yards against the Browns last year, but he's losing targets to Brian Hartline, who had two more targets than Bess in Week 2 against Houston. If Bess becomes the No. 3 receiver for the Dolphins then his Fantasy value will plummet.

Bust alert: Reggie Wayne (vs. PIT): It's not time to hit the panic button on Wayne yet, but what we saw in Week 2 against Cleveland could become the norm with Kerry Collins starting for the injured Manning. Wayne had eight targets, but he was held to four catches for 66 yards. He has a tough matchup this week against the Steelers, and they will focus on shutting him down. Wayne could get some production in garbage time, but he should no longer be considered a must-start Fantasy option in all leagues, especially this week given the matchup.

Tight end

Start 'Em

Fred Davis (at DAL): Pretty soon we might be talking about Davis as a must-start Fantasy option in all leagues if he hasn't reached that status already. He has 11 catches for 191 yards and a touchdown in two games, and he's clearly moved past Chris Cooley as the No. 1 tight end for the Redskins. The Cowboys have allowed a tight end to score in each of the first two games with Dustin Keller in Week 1 and Delanie Walker in Week 2, and Davis could make it three in a row with the way he's playing right now.
Dustin Keller (at OAK): Keller is off to another impressive start with 11 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns in two games. The difference between this hot start and last year, when he had five touchdowns in his first four games, is he should remain a consistent threat throughout the season. The Raiders allowed Scott Chandler to score a touchdown last week, and Keller is worth using as a No. 1 option with the way he's playing to open the year.
Evan Moore (vs. MIA): Moore has scored a touchdown in each of his first two games, and he's facing the worst defense against opposing tight ends this week. The Dolphins have allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in Week 1 and Owen Daniels last week. Going back to last year, the Dolphins have now allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their past five games. If you need a tight end this week to replace the injured Hernandez (knee) then consider using Moore.

Sit 'Em

Lance Kendricks (vs. BAL): All the promise that Kendricks showed in the preseason has been washed away with a miserable start to the year. He dropped a touchdown in Week 1 against the Eagles and has just two catches for 44 yards through two games. Things probably won't improve this week against the Ravens, who are traditionally good against tight ends and have allowed just five catches for 79 yards against Heath Miller and Jared Cook this year.
Brandon Pettigrew (at MIN): At some point Pettigrew will get going, but right now he's looking like a non-factor. He has five catches for 64 yards and no touchdowns, while Tony Scheffler has already scored twice. Pettigrew is dealing with a shoulder injury, but he's expected to play this week against the Vikings. In two games against Minnesota last year, Pettigrew had nine catches for 63 yards. By comparison, Scheffler had 13 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings have not allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end this year with matchups against Antonio Gates and Kellen Winslow.
Scott Chandler (vs. NE): The Patriots made sure Gates was not going to be a factor last week, holding the San Diego standout to no catches on one target. Chandler has three touchdowns in two games, and the Patriots will certainly be aware of that. This will be the week when his touchdown streak comes to an end, and he should only be considered as a No. 2 Fantasy option based on the matchup.

Bust alert: Dallas Clark (vs. PIT): Like Wayne, the performance we got from Clark in Week 2 could be closer to what we get for the rest of the season as long as Manning is out. Clark did score a touchdown against the Browns, but he had just four catches for 32 yards on eight targets. He now has eight catches for 71 yards through two games, and he has a tough matchup this week against the Steelers, who have a good history of defending tight ends. It's hard to bench Clark in the majority of leagues, but he should be viewed as a No. 2 Fantasy option this week based on the matchup. I would definitely start Davis and Keller ahead of Clark, and Moore also should fare better because he has an easier opponent.

Defense/Special teams

Start 'Em

Chargers (vs. KC): Things went from bad to horrifically awful for the Chiefs when Charles was lost for the season with a torn ACL. They have only scored 10 points in two games, and Matt Cassel is a train wreck with four interceptions and a fumble. He also has a poor history against the Chargers with three touchdowns, six interceptions and a fumble in his past five meetings, and in two of his past three games against San Diego he has failed to pass for 100 yards. The Chargers defense got rolled over last week at New England, but they should bounce back in a big way against the Chiefs. Consider them a Top 5 DST in Week 3.

Sit 'Em

Bears (vs. GB): The Bears defense was great in Week 1 with 23 Fantasy points in a standard league against Atlanta. But they came crashing down in Week 2 at New Orleans with only three points. That's about what they can expect this week in a matchup with the Packers. Green Bay's offense is clicking right now, and don't worry about Aaron Rodgers and his mediocre history at Chicago. He's not going to falter against the Bears, who he faced three times last season, and his offensive line has given up just three sacks in two games this year. The Packers also have just one fumble, and I'm not expecting Green Bay to get turnover happy this week. Look elsewhere for a starting DST in Week 3, and I would start the Cardinals (at SEA), Bengals (vs. SF) and Panthers (vs. JAC) over the Bears.

Kicker

Start 'Em

John Kasay (vs. HOU): Kasay is doing an admirable job replacing the injured Garrett Hartley (hip) with his performance through the first two games. He has double digits in points in both outings at Green Bay and against Chicago with five field goals and seven extra points. The Texans have only allowed two field goals and two extra points on the season, but they have allowed five field goal attempts. This game has the potential to be high scoring, and Kasay should have plenty of chances to be successful.

Sit 'Em

Adam Vinatieri (vs. PIT): The Steelers are coming off a shutout against the Seahawks, which was their first shutout since 2008. They could make it two in a row with how the Colts have looked on offense. Vinatieri had a huge game in Week 2 against Cleveland with four field goals and one extra point, but he should not be considered a starting option this week. Pittsburgh did allow two field goals in Week 1 at Baltimore, but the Colts will struggle to move the ball with Collins under center against this menacing defensive attack.

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