Sep. 23, 2011

Into the deep for Week 3

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Every week I'll dive into some sleepers beyond what we write in our Start 'Em and Sit 'Em column to help some of you in deeper leagues. Some weeks will have more guys than others, but this should be helpful for those owners in 14- and 16-team leagues.

Quarterback

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Joe Flacco (at STL): Flacco had a difficult day in Week 2 at Tennessee with 197 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, but he should rebound this week. The Rams don't have a good secondary, and they have allowed four passing touchdowns in two games against Michael Vick and Eli Manning. Flacco is capable of 250 passing yards and two touchdowns this week, and he should be a useful replacement if Michael Vick (concussion) or Tony Romo (ribs) are out.
Andy Dalton (vs. SF): It's only two weeks, but the 49ers have allowed three quarterbacks to throw five touchdowns against them with Tarvaris Jackson (two), Romo (two) and Jon Kitna (one). Look for Dalton to add to that total, and he's coming off an impressive game at Denver with 332 passing yards and two touchdowns. You're not going to start Dalton over a lot of quarterbacks this week, but this is a good matchup. If Jackson can throw for multiple touchdowns against this defense, Dalton should be able to match him.
Colt McCoy (vs. MIA): The Dolphins are banged up on defense with linebacker Karlos Dansby (groin), cornerback Vontae Davis (hamstring), safety Chris Clemons (hamstring) and defensive tackle Tony McDaniel (hand) all dealing with injuries. That's not good for a defense that has played bad so far this season. The Dolphins have allowed 747 passing yards, six touchdowns and one interception in two games. Granted, 517 yards were against Tom Brady in Week 1, but McCoy could make plays in this matchup. He could have similar production to his Week 1 outing against Cincinnati when he had 213 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception with 11 rushing yards. That's 19 Fantasy points in a standard league, which is realistic given the matchup.

Running back

Daniel Thomas (at CLE): You know I was all in on Thomas prior to the season, and he looked great in Week 2 against Houston with 18 carries for 107 yards and a fumble in his NFL debut. This week, I expect the Dolphins to rely on Thomas again since Cleveland's run defense is a weakness. The Browns have allowed Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai to each gain 100 total yards in their two games this season, and Thomas should definitely outplay Reggie Bush this week. He is a great flex option in the majority of leagues.
Isaac Redman (at IND): The Colts run defense is among the worst in the NFL, especially with linebacker Gary Brackett (shoulder) injured. Indianapolis has already allowed four rushing touchdowns on the season against Ben Tate, Derrick Ward and Peyton Hillis (twice). Redman scored last week against Seattle, and he should get some opportunities this week once Rashard Mendenhall shreds this defense. In deeper formats you can consider Redman as a flex option.
Jonathan Stewart (vs. JAC): I have a feeling DeAngelo Williams bounces back this week against the Jaguars, but I could also see Stewart playing well. He was fantastic as a receiver in Week 2 against Green Bay with eight catches for 100 yards, and he appears to be the running back who will work near the goal line. Jacksonville's run defense has done well this year in limiting Chris Johnson (49 total yards) and Shonn Greene (49 rushing yards), but Stewart could find the end zone this week in what should be a Carolina victory.
Danny Woodhead (at BUF): Woodhead has a good history against the Bills with two touchdowns in two meetings last year, and he had 13 carries for 93 yards and three catches for 32 yards at Buffalo in December. With Aaron Hernandez (hip) out, the Patriots might feature Woodhead more in the passing game even though he has just three catches for 21 yards on the season. Keep in mind that game at Buffalo last year came with Hernandez out with a hip injury, and Woodhead was able to step up in his place.
DeMarco Murray (vs. WAS): There are two reasons to like Murray this week. He could see an increase in carries if Felix Jones (shoulder) is limited or out, and the Cowboys could also use him as a receiver with Miles Austin (hamstring) and Dez Bryant (quad) banged up. If Jones doesn't play I would expect the Cowboys to lean on Tashard Choice more than Murray as a rusher, but Dallas could be in need of playmakers this week, which is why Murray makes this list.

Wide receiver

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Chad Ochocinco (at BUF): Ochocinco has been miserable so far this year with three catches for 59 yards, but his playing time and targets should increase with Hernandez out. That's the only reason to even consider him this week is because he should see more action, and hopefully that will lead to some quality production. The Bills have done a good job in coverage so far this season, but they haven't exactly faced stellar passing attacks in Kansas City and Oakland. That should change this week against the Patriots.
Mike Sims-Walker (vs. BAL): I like what I saw from Sims-Walker in Week 2 at the Giants with six catches for 92 yards. He stepped up with Danny Amendola (elbow) out, and he should be relied upon again this week against a Ravens secondary that has struggled this year. Baltimore has already allowed two receivers to gain 100 yards with Mike Wallace in Week 1 and Kenny Britt in Week 2, and Nate Washington fell one yard short last week at 99 yards. The Ravens are dealing with injuries to their secondary with Jimmy Smith (ankle), and the Rams might be forced to throw all game. Consider Sims-Walker a solid No. 3 Fantasy option this week.
David Nelson (vs. NE): Nelson was great last week against Oakland with 10 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown, and he has 14 catches for 149 yards on the season. With Roscoe Parrish (ankle) out for the season, Nelson's chances to produce should increase, and the Patriots secondary is a mess right now. New England has allowed 29 catches for 515 yards and three touchdowns to wide receivers, with Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess and Vincent Jackson each gaining over 90 yards. Nelson can be considered a No. 2 Fantasy option in point per reception leagues.
Dexter McCluster (at SD): We'll find out this week if McCluster can help Fantasy owners replace the injured Jamaal Charles (knee), and he should get the chance for plenty of playing time with Kansas City likely chasing points. McCluster has done well as a receiver so far with 12 catches for 93 yards in two games, but his carries should increase as well. He has to hold onto the ball with two fumbles, but Fantasy owners who added McCluster can consider him as a flex option in deeper formats. And hopefully he can help replace Charles since Fantasy owners are desperate now that his season is over.
Julio Jones (at TB): At some point this guy is going to find the end zone, and it could happen this week against the Bucs. Jones played well in Week 1 at Chicago with five catches for 71 yards before being stifled last week by Philadelphia's secondary for two catches and 29 yards. The Bucs have allowed three receivers to catch at least five passes in two games with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Percy Harvin, and while Roddy White is clearly the go-to guy, I think this is the week Jones scores his first NFL touchdown. Consider him a No. 3 option in deeper formats.

Tight end

Jermaine Gresham (vs. SF): With Jordan Shipley (knee) out for the season, Gresham's value should rise as the main target over the middle for Dalton. Gresham played well in Week 1 at Cleveland with six catches for 58 yards and a touchdown before doing nothing last week at Denver with two catches for 8 yards. The 49ers just allowed Jason Witten to catch seven passes for 102 yards, and their secondary is not very good. Gresham is worth using as a starter in deeper leagues or even as a flex option in PPR formats.
Tony Scheffler (at MIN): Scheffler has been the best Fantasy tight end for the Lions so far this season with two catches for 47 yards and two touchdowns, while Brandon Pettigrew has been held to five catches for 64 yards and no scores. Pettigrew is dealing with a shoulder injury, but Scheffler also has a good history against the Vikings. In two meetings last year, Scheffler had 13 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. And in three career matchups, Scheffler has 20 catches for 162 yards and two scores.
Greg Olsen (vs. JAC): The Jaguars were abused by Dustin Keller last week for six catches, 101 yards and a touchdown, and Olsen is looking for a rebound game after struggling last week against Green Bay. He was held to one catch for 34 yards and four targets, but I expect that to improve dramatically. Look for Olsen to score his first touchdown this season, and this should be the breakout game we've all been waiting for after drafting him as a starter.

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Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012

News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."

Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012

News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.

Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.

Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012

News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.

Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.

Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012

News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."

Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.

Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012

News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."

Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.

Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012

News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."

Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.

Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012

News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."

Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.

Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."

Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.

Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012

News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."

Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.

Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012

News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.

Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, WAS, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings