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Fantasy & Reality: Making the right deal

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
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After six weeks, you probably know what kind of Fantasy team you have. And unless you're one of the lucky ones at 6-0 (or even 5-1), chances are you're probably in the market to try and help your team improve by making a trade.

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There are three kinds of trades made in Fantasy:

Player for player: Pretty self-explanatory. Happens with a variety of player types (elite players, bench players) and could be used to alleviate bye week problems.

Depth for a stud: An owner drafts well and/or plays the waiver wire well and turns a couple of good players into one stud. Usually helps both teams; one owner gets a stud and has easier lineup decisions, the other has good starters to use.

The blockbuster: Roster-changing deal involving multiple players at multiple positions. This is a combination of the first two kinds of trades in that depth is usually a huge factor in who is part of the move.

We talk about making trades every year, but this year we're going to do something different. This year, we're going to attempt to build a Fantasy Trade Chart, much like the NFL's immortal Draft Pick Value Chart. Here, we assign simple values to players based on the tiers that they're in. That way, if you have a question about what or who you can get in trade for a player you want to dangle, you can get started on an answer here.

Fantasy Trade Chart
Standard PPR Two-QB
Top 3 QB 12 12 16
Excellent QB 8 8 12
Very Good QB 6 6 10
Good QB 4 4 8
Top 7 RB 12 12 12
Very Good RB 8 10 8
Good RB 4 6 4
Average RB 2 4 2
Top 2 WR 12 14 12
Very Good WR 8 10 8
Good WR 4 6 4
Average WR 2 4 2
Top 3 TE 8 10 8
Very Good TE 6 8 6
Good TE 4 6 4
Average TE 2 4 2
Quarterbacks
Top 3 Excellent Very Good Good
Aaron Rodgers Michael Vick Tony Romo Matt Schaub
Tom Brady Matthew Stafford Philip Rivers Matt Ryan
Drew Brees Cam Newton Eli Manning Ben Roethlisberger
    Ryan Fitzpatrick Tim Tebow
Running backs
Top 7 Very Good Good Average
Fred Jackson Michael Turner Chris Johnson Mike Tolbert
Arian Foster Ahmad Bradshaw Steven Jackson Peyton Hillis
LeSean McCoy Beanie Wells LeGarrette Blount Mark Ingram
Darren McFadden Frank Gore Cedric Benson Daniel Thomas
Ray Rice Ryan Mathews Darren Sproles Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte Maurice Jones-Drew Jahvid Best Ryan Torain
Adrian Peterson Rashard Mendenhall BenJarvus Green-Ellis Brandon Jacobs
    Willis McGahee  
    Shonn Greene  
    Felix Jones  
Wide receivers
Top 2 Very Good Good Average
Calvin Johnson Mike Wallace Roddy White Reggie Wayne
Wes Welker Greg Jennings Marques Colston Santana Moss
  Dwayne Bowe Steve Johnson Sidney Rice
  Larry Fitzgerald Dez Bryant Percy Harvin
  Steve Smith Santonio Holmes Deion Branch
  Hakeem Nicks Brandon Marshall Nate Washington
  Jeremy Maclin Pierre Garcon James Jones
  Miles Austin Anquan Boldin Darrius Heyward-Bey
  Andre Johnson Jordy Nelson Denarius Moore
  Vincent Jackson Eric Decker  
  A.J. Green Julio Jones  
  DeSean Jackson Victor Cruz  
Tight ends
Top 3 Very Good Good Average
Jimmy Graham Brandon Pettigrew Antonio Gates Dallas Clark
Aaron Hernandez Rob Gronkowski Jermichael Finley Benjamin Watson
Jason Witten Tony Gonzalez Jermaine Gresham Kellen Winslow
  Vernon Davis Fred Davis  
  Greg Olsen Dustin Keller  
  Owen Daniels    

Some additional notes:

• If either side is giving more than two players than the other side, it's not a fair deal. Any wise guy can go through all of this and find some silly trades that "would be fair" according to the chart. For example, six average wide receivers for Aaron Rodgers. Get real. Add this rule of thumb to your trading technique: Three-for-one trades happen all the time, four-for-one trades might suggest collusion or a guy giving up way, way too much. Try to keep the number of players in the deal even as best as you can.

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• You can create your own values. What if you have a player who's not listed above? Use your judgment, and perhaps agree to a value on that player with your trading partner. DeAngelo Williams is a fair example -- would you say he's a good running back or an average running back? What if you and the owner you're bickering with can't decide a hard-and-fast value for someone who is listed? Why not split the difference? Let's just say that you think Eric Decker is good (four points) but the guy you're haggling with isn't hot for him and thinks he's average (two points). Count him as three points and move along.

• Fantasy points do not equal Fantasy value. Just because two players are even in Fantasy points does not mean they should be dealt for each other. I know Victor Cruz has been outstanding with 55 Fantasy points in standard leagues but I'd still rather have Arian Foster (who has 54 points so far), thank you very much.

• Things change. This should be obvious but just in case it's not, players' values fluctuate on a weekly basis. Matt Ryan might have been considered a stud-in-waiting after he threw for four touchdowns in Week 2 vs. the Eagles. He's thrown as many in the four weeks since. Can't consider him the same guy. Injuries also play a role -- LeGarrette Blount, Felix Jones and Jahvid Best have had their great moments for Fantasy owners but are banged up, so their values aren't as high.

• Your league may vary. Not all leagues are created equal and the trade chart will change things for people in deeper leagues or PPR leagues that can start four wideouts. It wouldn't be considered crazy to tack on one point at positions that are considered more valuable in unique scoring leagues.

• Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Not only is every Fantasy league different, but every Fantasy owner thinks for his or her own self. Just because we say the basis for a trade is "fair" does not mean your fellow owners will agree. Some owners will say no to a deal because they don't think it's in their best interests, which is understandable. But some owners will overvalue and undervalue players for the darndest reasons ("He was sooo good last year," or, "He went to the same school that I did."). Again, please use this chart as a starting point in trades and not a basis of absolute finality when it comes to deeming a trade fair or not.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Robert Griffin III
Griffin to be ready by camp?
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
11:54 AM
News: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan suggested Thursday that quarterback Robert Griffin III has a chance to be ready for the start of training camp. "We're hoping," he said. "He's working extremely hard." Shanahan also said he wouldn't be comfortable starting Griffin without some offseason or preseason work. Griffin was spotted by NFL Network dropping back on passes to receivers while wearing a helmet along with a brace on his right knee on Thursday.
Analysis: It would be incredible for RG3 to be ready to go by late July, less than seven months after getting hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back unless they were convinced he was totally healthy. That seems risky, but for now any positive progress is great for prospective Fantasy owners. Here's a gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Pierre Garcon
Shanahan: Garcon had surgery
Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
1:41 PM
News: Mike Shanahan disclosed Thursday that wide receiver Pierre Garcon had chest surgery this offseason, but the Washington Times clarified it as a minor procedure on his labrum, which is in the shoulder . It appears Garcon is not a candidate to miss any serious playing time, however. "I think he's really unbelievable. He's come back so fast ..." Shanahan said of his receiver. "lifting weights he shouldn't be able to lift."
Analysis: Garcon is also still battling a toe injury that capsized much of his first year in D.C. As long as he's healthy for the start of the season he's got plenty of upside to offer Fantasy owners. Garcon finished last year averaging 14.4 yards per catch, the second-highest average in his career, but he had a four-year-low 44 receptions with a three-year-worst four scores. Staying healthy is obviously the most important thing he can do to keep him relevant in Fantasy Football but one recurrence of the toe injury could wipe out several games. If he can stay upright -- and assuming quarterback Robert Griffin III is healthy with his knee -- Garcon can be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

James Casey
Casey has knee surgery
James Casey, TE, PHI
11:42 AM
News: USA Today reports that Eagles tight end James Casey will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out loose cartilage his right knee and will be out of action for the rest of the spring. A team spokesman said Casey should be ready to go by the start of training camp. Casey signed a three-year deal with $14.5 million as one of the first additions for the Eagles in a busy opening few days in free agency. The former Texans fullback/tight end is expected to play a key role in coach Chip Kelly's offense.
Analysis: Casey had career-highs with 34 receptions, 330 yards and three touchdowns last year, numbers that could spike with the Eagles because of the expected design of the offense and the up-tempo style that will result in more snaps. Like any player getting used to Kelly's offense, Casey would surely benefit from more reps through the rest of organized team activities and minicamp, so being sidelined for the next month isn't ideal. Still, if all goes as well as planned, Casey should get plenty of time on the field in July and August as long as he's healthy. He's not worth drafting in most leagues, but Casey is someone to monitor as a potential waiver wire addition if he's fine as expected following this procedure.

Peyton Manning
Manning to CBS: My arm is stronger
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
11:34 AM
News: In an exclusive Q&A with CBSSports.com NFL Columnist Pete Prisco, Peyton Manning admitted to being nervous about his arm as far back as June 2011 when he had a hard time throwing at all, then again last season when he forced some things in a road game at Atlanta. But a year removed from rehabbing his arm, Manning sounds confident in his skills. "I feel much more comfortable than I was last year. I am stronger than I was last year. I am throwing the ball better now in May of 2013 than I did in May of 2012 -- significantly better," he said. "I got better throughout the season. I am not doing the monthly update reports anymore. I am past that."
Analysis: The Broncos will attempt to move into a more up-tempo approach this season and added Wes Welker to an already stacked receiving corps. Manning should be in for a very good season, perhaps even better than the one he had last year. Manning is a candidate for 300 yards and at least two scores every week. He should be considered an elite passer worth a pick between the middle of Round 2 and the end of Round 3, depending on your league's size and scoring system.

Trent Richardson
Richardson misses practice
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
10:57 AM
News: Browns coach Rob Chudzinski comfirmed running back Trent Richardson missed practice Thursday with a lower leg muscle pull. "It's precautionary," Chudzinski said. "We are holding him out. He may miss minicamp in a week and a half. I'm not sure, we'll just take it day-by-day."
Analysis: The Browns can't take chances with their prized running back, particularly since he'll be featured in an offense that will lean heavily on him. Richardson established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league last season with 267 carries for 950 yards with 11 touchdowns and another 51 catches for 367 yards and a score. He should be able to better those stats this season as long as he's healthy. You're taking him with a Top 5 pick.

Wes Welker
Welker expects catches to drop
Wes Welker, WR, DEN
10:55 AM
News: The Denver Post reports that new Broncos receiver Wes Welker doesn't expect to reach his average for receptions, which was 112 over the past six seasons with the Patriots. "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker said. "(The catches) are not the goal," Welker said. "The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I've got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that." The report says that in New England, the Patriots don't feature their outside receivers. In recent years, they have become a tight end-slot attack. Not so the Broncos. For all the questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength last year, he threw enough outside the numbers to help Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop into one of the NFL's top receiver tandems. "I mean, we have two really good guys. We can't ignore them," Welker said. "If one guy is catching 112 balls, the defense is focusing in on that guy. We want defenses focusing on everybody and having to worry about everybody. That was one of the main reasons I came here."
Analysis: Now, before you downgrade Welker, keep in mind it's not like the plan calls for him to go from 112 catches to 50. Manning won't forget his friends, but he won't ignore the new guy, either. Welker's Fantasy value definitely takes a hit going from New England to Denver, but he remains a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 4 or 5 in standard leagues. In PPR formats, look for Welker to be drafted as early as Round 3 since he should still be around 85-plus catches despite the drop-off with the Broncos.

Percy Harvin
Harvin to get time at running back
Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
10:46 AM
News: The Seattle Times reports that new Seattle receiver Percy Harvin is already making an impact. "His talent level is unbelievable, off the charts," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "He brings an explosive mentality to the game, which a lot of our guys already have. But to have him is truly tremendous. He's a guy that's been one of the best football players in the National Football League for the past several years." Harvin, 24, has averaged 1,800 total yards in four seasons and was on pace for 2,400 yards in 2012 — which would have led the NFL — before an ankle injury ended his season. In those nine games, he had 62 catches — 12 more than any Seahawk — for 677 yards. He also had 96 yards rushing and 574 yards on kickoff returns, including a 105-yard touchdown return. The Seahawks plan to use him similarly. He'll likely line up in the slot as his regular spot, but figures to get used outside, as well, and should see his share of handoffs and kickoff returns. "I'll be moving around — pretty much all around," said Harvin. "There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."
Analysis: We're excited about Harvin in Seattle because he should be able to remain highly involved on offense with better talent around him. Harvin remains a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he's worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, especially if he continues to see time in the backfield.

Randall Cobb
Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
10:37 AM
News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.
Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Ryan Williams
Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
10:08 AM
News: Cardinals running back Ryan Williams told the Arizona Republic that he was more concerned about his knee than his play last season, saying he played scared. Williams came back from a torn patella tendon suffered in 2011 and wasn't ready for the physical punishment that comes with playing running back. Per the story, he got nervous when then-quarterback Kevin Kolb would call '39 toss' because it exposed his right side and his injured knee. The lack of confidence left him "pretty much scared all last year to get the ball in my hands." He added hurting his shoulder was a "blessing" because it allowed him time to get his knee feeling good. Now he says he's not scared anymore. "This is the healthiest I've felt in the past two years," Williams said. "It feels good to be able to run like myself, instinctive and not having to think about what I’m doing, just going out and doing it. I've been working real hard, so things are looking good. My stars are aligned this year."
Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Michael Crabtree
Harbaugh: Crabtree will play in '13
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8:45 AM
News: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that Michael Crabtree's torn right Achilles will not cost him the entire season. With surgery already done, it is believed Crabtree will return within six months. Linebacker Patrick Willis said Crabtree went down after making a "simple, normal cut" after going in motion and before starting his route during 7 on 7 drills. "Crab is one of those tough guys. He can get hit hard, and he'll bounce right back up," Willis told the San Jose Mercury News. "Yesterday he stayed down a little longer than normal. You say a little prayer and hope it wasn't as bad as it looked. Unfortunately it is."
Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

 
 
 
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