Oct. 27, 2011

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Tight end excess? Not so fast.

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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If you've been paying attention to the waiver wire, that primordial sales pitch should fall on deaf ears. You've already gotten your tight end there, and that should be the case for everybody in a 12-team league.

Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Jermichael Finley, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels, Greg Olsen, Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, Aaron Hernandez and Vernon Davis.

Count 'em up. That's 12 starting-caliber tight ends. Throw in Antonio Gates to make it a baker's dozen.

Yes, we're approaching the pinnacle of tight end productivity, with one team after another turning to the extra blocker as a legitimate pass-catcher in this pass-heavy age. For most Fantasy owners, that's good news -- the more places you can get production, the merrier -- but if you're one of the few who stuck it out with Kellen Winslow or Heath Miller, you're further behind the eight ball than you realize.

And despite the perceived excess at the position, not every Fantasy owner will be so eager to deal. See, the flex spot is flexible for a reason, and as we approach the end of the bye weeks, more and more Fantasy owners may use it as a way to sneak an extra tight end into the lineup.

Sign of the times. Back in my day, it was Tony Gonzalez, Wesley Walls and everybody else.

Can't believe I'm asking this, but who should I start at tight end the rest of the season: Jermichael Finley or Fred Davis? -- Andy Dunaway (via Facebook)

SW: I'm with you, Andy. I just got Antonio Gates back in one of my leagues, and I'm having a hard time convincing myself he deserves to start over Davis. Pretty much any Fantasy owner with any tight end other than Jimmy Graham is asking himself this same question right now, so certainly, it applies to the owner of Finley. Just look at the numbers. Davis has gone for 80 yards or more four times this season. Finley has done it once.

And it's actually worse than it looks.

Chris Cooley, Davis' fellow tight end in Washington, was still working his way back from knee surgery in Weeks 1 and 2 and went down with a season-ending hand injury early in Week 6. Davis' four games with 80 yards or more came, interestingly enough, in Weeks 1, 2, 6 and 7. With Cooley out of the picture, as he's going to be for the rest of 2011, Davis has been a stud.

Just imagine how he's going to do now that leading wide receiver Santana Moss is out with a hand injury of his own. John Beck won't want to throw to anyone else. Davis is the first, second and third receiving option in a Redskins passing game that, for all the turmoil at quarterback, has actually been fairly effective this season, ranking 16th in yards per game.

How can you take someone like that out of your lineup, especially when compared to someone like Finley, who, for as talented as he may be, is one of five or six mouths that Aaron Rodgers has to feed every week.

In terms of consistency, it's not even close, and I wouldn't be surprised if Davis finished the season with more yards either. Fortunately, with the Packers on bye this week, you get one more week to observe Davis' role in the Redskins' passing game before deciding anything. If he remains the focus, you should at least consider using him in your flex spot.

Hey, that's what I'm doing in a league where I own Davis and Aaron Hernandez.

I own both Rob Gronkowski and Fred Davis in a points-per-reception league. Should I trade Davis for Felix Jones? Adrian Peterson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Beanie Wells are my current running backs. -- TeamTommyD (via Twitter)

SW: Well, if we've already declared Davis a must-start tight end, then you're right to think you have trade bait at the position. Gronkowski is just as good -- probably better, even -- and if you already have your flex spot filled, you can't get both in the lineup.

But I feel like you're forcing the issue here.

Just because you have excess doesn't mean you have to make a trade. It simply means you have the luxury of getting something for what amounts to nothing. But if the something you're getting is actually nothing, you're not really gaining anything, are you?

That sounds like a riddle, but it's not. Ask yourself this: Why do you want Jones? Because you've heard he's supposed to be a good Fantasy running back? Yeah, that was back on Draft Day. But he hasn't delivered on that promise, and after DeMarco Murray rewrote the Cowboys record books on Sunday, rushing for 253 yards while Jones watched from the sidelines with a high ankle sprain (which, by the way, could cost him a few more weeks), he might not get another chance.

I'm not saying the Cowboys will bury Jones on the depth chart never to be heard from again, but after the way Murray performed, you have to think the rookie has at least earned a split of the carries going forward. And if that's the case, Jones is back in the same position he was during the 2009 and 2010 seasons, when he was a bad game away from going back on the waiver wire in shallower leagues.

What good would that sort of player do for you? It's not like you have a gaping hole at running back. Jones wouldn't start over any of your other three options, which means the only place you could squeeze him into your lineup is the flex spot. And if that's the case, why not just play Davis? I'm betting he'll be the more reliable of the two on a week-to-week basis.

Should I start Mike Tolbert, Ryan Torain or Jackie Battle in a standard league? -- Adam Bianchi (via Twitter)

SW: I have to admit I was a little disappointed in the way the Chiefs used Battle in Week 7. He led the way in carries with 16, yeah, but he still got less than half of the team total, with Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones combining for 19. It's the kind of distribution that might lead some to believe the Chiefs are adopting a running-back-by-committee approach similar to what you might see in, say, Washington.

What's that? Tim Hightower's season-ending knee injury effectively eliminates Washington's rushing committee? Well, that's a nice theory, but I think we all know Mike Shanahan a little better than that. He still has Roy Helu to go along with Torain, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if a third, to this point unnamed, running back emerges in the near future. It's like he plucks these guys off the street just to prove he can.

So who leads the way for the Redskins on Sunday? Torain is the right guess, but I'm almost willing to bet he'll be the wrong answer. It's a shame, too, because that matchup against the Bills is the best for any of these three running backs.

As for Tolbert, he was the Chargers' primary ball carrier for much of the second quarter last week because of a thumb injury to Ryan Mathews, and yet he still ended up with only 11 touches. If not for the touchdown during that stretch Mathews was out, Tolbert would have delivered the same nothing performance he had in Weeks 2, 3 and 5. Can't count on Mathews to leave again, can you?

If I had to rank these three running backs for Week 8, I'd go Battle, Torain and Tolbert. Battle's matchup against the Chargers isn't such a bad one, and since he was clearly the best of the Chiefs' three running backs last week, I see the potential for him to get a larger percentage of the carries going forward. I'm not sure Torain will ever get close to a full load in Washington.

I just traded Matt Schaub, Fred Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis for Aaron Rodgers, LeGarrette Blount, DeSean Jackson and Dallas Clark. Good trade for me? -- David Kovari (via Facebook)

SW: I'd say it's a great deal for you, David. That doesn't mean the other guy necessarily made a bad deal. Schaub is a starting-caliber quarterback, Fred Jackson has emerged as a top-10 running back, and Davis is an upgrade over Clark. But just looking at the landscape of the quarterback position, the top five -- Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady and, if he stays healthy, Matthew Stafford -- have distinguished themselves by so much at the position, giving their owners such an advantage every week, that when you can get one for market value, it's probably a bargain, strange as that sounds.

And of those five, Rodgers is perhaps in a class of his own. About as many points separate him and Brees as separate Stafford and Schaub, who happens to be No. 6 at the position.

The one position where you do suffer a noticeable loss in this deal is running back, but the upgrade from Garcon to DeSean Jackson should negate it to a degree. And honestly, I don't think you'll be too disappointed with Blount, assuming he returns from his knee injury after the team's Week 8 bye. He handles the full load of his team's carries, include those at the goal line, so opportunity isn't an issue for him. And considering he's averaging 4.8 yards per carry over his career, I don't imagine performance will be either.

I'd make this deal even without the exchange of wide receivers, so as it stands, easy call.

I was offered Vincent Jackson and Chris Johnson for LeSean McCoy in a points-per-reception league. I also have Daniel Thomas, Pierre Thomas, Peyton Hillis and Delone Carter at running back, with Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe and Greg Little at wide receiver. Should I make the trade? -- Megamega901 (via Twitter)

SW: Even if you have high hopes for a big-time bounce back from Johnson, I'm not sure this trade makes much sense for you.

For starters, it's a PPR league, and though the Titans made an attempt to get Johnson going by tossing him six passes last week, the approach didn't have enough success for me to believe it'll continue. McCoy, on the other hand, is one of the top pass-catching running backs in the league, which often makes a bigger difference than yardage itself in PPR leagues. Granted, he's a little behind pace this season, but he had 78 catches last season -- an NFL-best among running backs -- while working in the same offense.

In other words, as impressive as McCoy has been this year, he still hasn't met his full potential in PPR leagues. Johnson, meanwhile, has been so bad that he might not even be a viable option for you a couple weeks from now. (Then again, looking at your alternatives, you might have no choice but to start him, which is just another incentive to stick with the more reliable running back.)

True, you'd be upgrading at wide receiver in the deal, but not by as much as you'd think. Lloyd is in a position to catch plenty of passes now that he's in St. Louis, and Jackson, from what I can tell, has yet to live up to the hype in Fantasy.

You know what his career high in receptions is? I'll give you a hint: Steve Breaston's is higher, as are Brent Celek's and Lance Moore's.

It's 68. Granted, he has managed to make the most of his limited number of catches, turning in a couple of 1,000-yard seasons, but big-play ability isn't what makes a PPR stud.

But I'm not trying to bash Jackson here. I'm simply trying to point out that this package isn't enough for a clear-cut stud like McCoy, especially in a league where his receiving ability has added value. Look elsewhere.

Battle of the unbeatens in my league this weekend, so this game is a must-win. Should I start Tim Tebow or Joe Flacco at quarterback? -- Luke Fults (via Twitter)

SW: Recent history would tell you Tebow, right? After all, he scored 26 Fantasy points at Miami just last week and has yet to score less than 20 in any of his four career starts. Flacco has scored 20 only twice this season and had a miserable nine in what should have been a favorable matchup at Jacksonville last week.

But I'm still going with Flacco this week for the same reasons I went with Ben Roethlisberger over Tebow last week.

Really, the exact same reasons. Flacco is facing that same Cardinals pass defense that is even worse than its 28th ranking would indicate thanks to early season matchups against Rex Grossman, Tarvaris Jackson and Donovan McNabb. The Ravens offense, for all of its struggles Monday, has been dominant at times this season, so you have to believe it'll capitalize on this matchup the same way the Steelers offense did, making a 300-yard, three-touchdown performance a distinct possibility for Flacco.

It's not like those numbers are so far-fetched for him. He achieved them back in Week 3.

If nothing else, you can reasonably expect two touchdowns from him, which is the most you could reasonably expect from Tebow as well. Could Tebow's rushing yards be enough to give him the edge in the end? Yeah, but what's the downside?

Even though he finished with respectable Fantasy numbers, some of my worst fears about Tebow were realized in that game against the Dolphins. For 3 1/2 quarters, he didn't just look bad; he looked incompetent, completing only one-third of his passes, wasting downs and destroying drives. With him under center, the Broncos couldn't do anything against a weak Dolphins defense. It's almost like they weren't even trying. Only when they had their backs against the wall did they lean on Tebow's trademark ability to scramble and make plays.

So was that brief success enough for them to realize that the threat of Tebow running is what makes him a competent passer and, thus, devise a game plan better suited for his talents? Maybe. But why gamble on a maybe when you have what I'd consider a certainty in Flacco?

If you were deciding between Tebow and a lesser quarterback, like Matt Cassel or Alex Smith, Tebow would be an easy call. But Flacco is good enough to deserve the benefit of the doubt in the right circumstances, and a matchup against the Cardinals is certainly the right circumstances.

Who should I start at flex this week: Brandon Marshall, Maurice Morris or Pierre Garcon? -- Steve Richardson (via Twitter)

SW: It's Marshall by a long shot.

Garcon had his day in the sun, putting together back-to-back 100-yard, two-touchdown performances in Weeks 4 and 5. It was fun. It was exciting. It was a little too good to be true. In the two weeks since, he has a combined 83 yards and no touchdowns, which are closer to the numbers you can expect from him going forward. Even if the Colts' passing game is improved with Curtis Painter under center -- and that's highly debatable after the numbers he put up at New Orleans last week -- Garcon isn't the only, or even primary, target.

Morris, meanwhile, is a 31-year-old career backup who will at best split carries with Keiland Williams in a pass-first offense. He's averaging 3.9 yards per carry this season after averaging 3.7 last season and isn't big enough to handle goal-line duties. I'm sorry, but I don't get the hype.

Marshall has a bad quarterback throwing him the ball and a chronic case of the dropsies, but he's also pretty much all the Dolphins have. The offense always goes through him, which explains why he has a consistent four to seven catches every week. He's already a threat for decent yardage given those opportunities, and the law of averages suggests he's going to pull one down in the end zone sooner or later, especially since he's such a big target in the red zone.

Against a depleted Giants secondary, I'd say he has a pretty good chance this week. Not that it makes much of a difference. He'd be my choice just about every week.

Would you trade Dwayne Bowe and Aaron Hernandez for Cam Newton and Tony Gonzalez? My quarterbacks are Matt Ryan and Matt Hasselbeck, and my wide receivers (apart from Bowe) are Darrius Heyward-Bey, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Jabar Gaffney and Nate Washington. I'm in a three-way tie for first place and need a quarterback to set my team apart, I think. -- Gioacchino Ventimiglia (via Facebook)

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SW: My first reaction is to agree with you. I wouldn't feel comfortable with Ryan and Hasselbeck as my only two quarterbacks, and I see Newton as a significant upgrade. But I also wouldn't expect you to be in a three-way tie for first place given your current quarterback situation. In such a position, I might just shy away from such a move.

Clearly, your team is good already, and it became good despite bad passing numbers from Ryan. A couple of rushing touchdowns have saved him over the last couple of weeks, but for the most part, it hasn't been pretty.

That's going to change. His weapons are too good for him to continue with a career-low quarterback rating and near 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I'm not saying he's going to match Newton's Fantasy production, but he'll be better than he has been. You can bank on it.

So knowing that your team is going to improve just by standing still, perhaps you shouldn't rock the boat too much. I mean, you're almost there, right? Your strength at wide receiver and tight end is part of what's gotten you there.

I don't even mind the exchange of tight ends so much because I think Gonzalez is a perfectly adequate starter. It's the loss at wide receiver that bothers me. If you make this trade, you'd have to rely on either Boldin or Heyward-Bey every week. You'd knowingly be making yourself vulnerable at the position.

Still, I think the value is too good to pass up. Most people with a desperate need at quarterback would be lucky to give up just Bowe and Hernandez for Newton. So yeah, take the deal. Just keep in mind that, because you're not in a position of desperation, it's not as automatic as it appears.

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