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Fantasy & Reality: Grasping the current trade market

Senior Fantasy Writer
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Here's the first thing you need to know if you're angry with Chris Johnson or Philip Rivers on your Fantasy team: If you drop them, someone in your league will rush to pick them up. By that rule of thumb alone, you can expect someone, somewhere in your league to show interest for them in a trade. So don't cut them outright even if the sight of their stats in your lineup makes you sick.

Of course, the trade route isn't any prettier. The values of these guys have grossly changed since early September. So while most owners would gladly take a flier on either Johnson or Rivers off waivers, not quite as many owners would want to give up a player from their team for him, especially a good one.

Johnson's value is at a staggering all-time low. So far this season he has one 100-yard game, one touchdown and a slew of criticism (including some from me back in late September). But owners still have some interest in him because of the success he's had in the past. But the concerns are not only that he won't play big again this season but that his opportunities are shrinking because of Javon Ringer's improved play and near-equal playing time. Last week Ringer saw just about as much playing time as Johnson, including when the Titans went into their two-minute drill and again late when they tried to grind down the game clock. As long as Ringer plays well when given the chance, Johnson has an uphill climb to regain the every-down role he's been paid to have.

Rivers has also seen his star fade thanks for a number of reasons. He's not getting a lot of time in the pocket to throw, and when he does throw there seems to be some zip missing from his passes. Obviously his accuracy is called into question as he's been up and down every week. For instance, his toss to Antonio Gates' back shoulder in the end zone against the Chiefs was magnificent and he hit Curtis Brinkley on a go-route perfectly, but several other throws he made, including several to Vincent Jackson, were off. Rivers hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns in a game since Week 2. Fumbling snaps doesn't help.

What can you get for these guys? Interestingly enough, the move to make is to trade busts for busts. Not only are Johnson and Rivers disappointing, but so are DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Marshawn Lynch, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Felix Jones, Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, Reggie Wayne and Santonio Holmes. Obviously they're not the only ones. If you're weak at receiver and have Chris Johnson, deal him for the bust receiver with the most upside. If you're weak at running back you could deal Rivers for, well, Johnson. Make the most of your own bust by trading him for a player who has also disappointed but does have some potential to come back to life.

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Of course, we're not saying Johnson and Rivers are useless for the rest of the season. But the one with the better chance to rebound is Rivers, not Johnson. One big reason for it is his schedule: He's got two tough matchups left (they come in Week 15 and 16) and faces the likes of Broncos, Raiders (twice), Bears and Packers in Week 9. Five of his final nine games come against Bottom 10 pass defenses in Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. That will help.

Updated Trade Value Chart

A couple of weeks back, we debuted our Fantasy Trade Value Chart, used to serve as a baseline guide in making trades in Fantasy leagues. We're updating it heading into Week 9. Basically we tiered the prominent players at the four significant Fantasy positions and gave them a simple numeric value. If the player(s) you are offering have a total value equal to that of the player(s) you're getting, then the deal is reasonably fair.

Remember, if you and your trading partner differ on the value of a player, you could always come to an agreement and value the player accordingly. And if your trade values are off by a point or two, the trade is close enough or a toss-in away from being good. If a player isn't listed here, his value is no better than that of the lowest-valued tier. Finally, the tiers were put together not based on year-to-date production but perceived value of the players.

Fantasy Trade Chart
Tier Standard PPR 2QB Tier Standard PPR 2QB
Top 5 QB 10 10 16 Top 5 WR 12 14 12
Excellent QB 8 8 12 Very Good WR 8 10 8
Very Good QB 4 4 8 Good WR 4 8 4
Good QB 2 2 6 Average WR 2 4 2
Top 8 RB 12 12 12 Top 5 TE 8 10 8
Very Good RB 8 10 8 Very Good TE 6 8 6
Good RB 4 6 4 Good TE 4 6 4
Average RB 2 4 2 Average TE 2 4 2


Quarterbacks
Top 5 Excellent Very Good Good
Aaron Rodgers Matthew Stafford Ben Roethlisberger Philip Rivers
Cam Newton Eli Manning Tony Romo Ryan Fitzpatrick
Drew Brees   Matt Schaub Matt Ryan
Michael Vick     Mark Sanchez
Tom Brady     Josh Freeman
Running backs
Top 8 Very Good Good Average
Arian Foster Michael Turner Darren Sproles Chris Johnson
Fred Jackson Steven Jackson LeGarrette Blount Peyton Hillis
LeSean McCoy Beanie Wells Rashard Mendenhall Felix Jones
Matt Forte Ahmad Bradshaw Cedric Benson Mark Ingram
Ray Rice Maurice Jones-Drew Shonn Greene Jahvid Best
Adrian Peterson Ryan Mathews DeMarco Murray Jonathan Stewart
Darren McFadden   Jackie Battle James Starks
Frank Gore   Willis McGahee  
    BenJarvus Green-Ellis  
Wide receivers
Top 5 Very Good Good Average
Calvin Johnson Dwayne Bowe DeSean Jackson Brandon Marshall
Wes Welker A.J. Green Andre Johnson Sidney Rice
Steve Smith Jeremy Maclin Miles Austin Deion Branch
Mike Wallace Marques Colston Brandon Lloyd Nate Washington
Greg Jennings Larry Fitzgerald Pierre Garcon Darrius Heyward-Bey
  Hakeem Nicks Victor Cruz Mario Manningham
  Roddy White Steve Johnson Antonio Brown
  Anquan Boldin Dez Bryant Percy Harvin
    Vincent Jackson Eric Decker
    Santonio Holmes Reggie Wayne
    Jordy Nelson Plaxico Burress
    Julio Jones  
Tight ends
Top 5 Very Good Good Average
Jimmy Graham Fred Davis Vernon Davis Brent Celek
Aaron Hernandez Tony Gonzalez Jermichael Finley Heath Miller
Jason Witten Greg Olsen Owen Daniels Dallas Clark
Rob Gronkowski Brandon Pettigrew Jermaine Gresham Dustin Keller
Antonio Gates   Jake Ballard Scott Chandler

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Dave at @daverichard and on Facebook .

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Player News
Saints WR Nick Toon has best shot to make an impact
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(3:22 pm ET) With the Saints losing players who combined for 239 receptions last season, the door is open wider than ever for fourth-year receiver Nick Toon to finally make his mark on the team, per NOLA.com. 

Toon has 21 career receptions, including 17 last season. Now, he's got a clear path to be the team's No. 3 wideout, but he isn't banking on anything. 

"No, I don't have any more security. It's one of those things, whether you're an undrafted free agent or the first pick in the draft, you can never get complacent in this field," he said. "There's always someone coming in, looking to compete for your job. Complacency will cut your career short. You can never be complacent in this industry."


Report: Texans lose LB Reshard Cliett to knee injury for season
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(3:01 pm ET) Texans rookie linebacker Reshard Cliett has been lost to a knee injury suffered during the team's first practice, per the Houston Chronicle

Cliett was a sixth-round pick by Houston out of South Florida, where he had 38 tackles and six sacks last season. 


Dolphins OL Branden Albert not guaranteed for Week 1
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(2:55 pm ET) While Dolphins tackle Branden Albert avoided the PUP list at the start of training camp and has spent some time practicing with the team, the lineman is being brought along slowly and his status for Week 1 of the regular season remains in doubt, per the Palm Beach Post

Albert tore his ACL and MCL during Week 10 last season, and the team remains cautious about his recovery. 

"I don’t think surprised is the right term," Dolphins offensive line coach John Benton said about Albert's return for the regular season. "I'm a positive person so I'm sure expecting that to happen. At the same time, I understand it's a fairly serious injury he's recovering from."


RB Duke Johnson (hamstring) falling behind at Browns camp
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(2:46 pm ET) Browns rookie running back Duke Johnson missed practice again Tuesday with a hamstring injury, and the team's coaching staff is being to appear frustrated with his absence, per ESPNCleveland.com.

"It's just disappointing that a guy we're counting on being a big part of what we do, to lose him at this formative time of what we're getting done … he'll have a lot of catch-up work to do," Browns coach Mike Pettine said. 

Johnson, a third-round pick out of Miami, is expected to be a big part of the Browns' run-heavy offense and a part of their special teams - if he can get on the field. 


Browns WR Terrelle Pryor completes pass, hurts hamstring
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(2:32 pm ET) Browns wide receiver Terrelle Pryor, who is making the transition to that position from quarterback, got to show off some of his old skills Tuesday, completing a pass on an end-around in both offense-only and full-team drills before tweaking his hamstring and leaving the field, per Cleveland.com. 

Coach Mike Pettine said he didn't think the injury was serious, but that the team would take a closer look at the injury as a precaution. 


Patriots announce four signings to fill roster
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(2:15 pm ET) The Patriots announced they have signed four players Tuesday: linebackers L.J. Fort and Cameron Gordon, fullback Eric Kettani and defensive lineman A.J. Pataiali’l .

Gordon and Kettani have both previously spent time with the Patriots, while Fort was on the practice squads of the Seahawks and Bengals in 2014. Pataiali’l was on both the Ravens and Browns practice squads last season. 


Jaguars GM says WR Justin Blackmon 'unlikely' to return
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:47 pm ET) Wide receiver Justin Blackmon , who hasn't practiced or played since 2013 after being suspended for the third time for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, is unlikely to return to the Jaguars according to GM David Caldwell, per ESPN.com. 

Blackmon hasn't been in contact with the team and his time away from the game signals he is not prepared to hit the field anytime soon. 

"I don't know to expect but I would say common sense would probably be if you haven't played football in two-and-a-half years apparently that's not a priority for you," Caldwell said. 

The Jaguars have no plans to cut Blackmon, who would have to apply for reinstatement and go through a two-month vetting process before being allowed to play again. 


Packers RB Eddie Lacy leaves practice with foot issue
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:40 pm ET) Packers running back Eddie Lacy left practice Tuesday with what the team is labeling as a foot issue, per ESPN.com. 

"Eddie had some foot soreness," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. "They just pulled him out there near the end."

The Packers had said they wanted to limit Lacy's workload, but during the first few days of camp, he had taken the majority of reps. Veteran James Starks is Lacy's backup. 


Report: Texans RB Arian Foster injures groin, may need surgery
by Elliott Smith | Staff Writer
(1:19 pm ET) Texans running back Arian Foster suffered a groin injury Monday during the team's first fully padded practice, per a report from ESPN.com. 

During last night's practice, Foster hobbled off the field during a pass play, and several sources, including the Houston Chronicle, have described the injury as serious enough to require surgery. 

Foster has battled a variety of injuries during his career, including a hamstring issue that knocked him out of the team's season finale last year. 

Foster finished 2014 with 1,246 yards and eight touchdowns on 255 rushing attempts. He also caught 37 passes for 317 yards and four touchdowns


Browns DL Billy Winn (ankle) to miss week of practice
by Matt Rybaltowski | CBSSports.com
(12:23 pm ET) The Browns defensive line dodged a bullet when the ankle injury suffered by defensive lineman Billy Winn was not ruled to be that serious, per the Associated Press

Browns coach Mike Pettine said that Winn will miss at least a week; however, he didn't feel it was the kind of high ankle sprain that could keep Winn out of action for several months. 

Winn was carted off the field during last Saturday's practice. He appeared in 13 games last season and totaled 31 tackles with one interception.


 
 
 
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