Starting Points for Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you as we get ready to stuff our faces with turkey and hopefully stuff the stat sheets with Fantasy points in Week 12.
The bye weeks are doneski, so from here on out you will have all of your healthy players available to you, which is something to be thankful for. I am going to give you six guys to start and four to avoid to start your holiday season off right.
Want more from our industry-leading writers Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg? Take their Fantasy advice with you on-the-go with our Fantasy Football Podcasts. Listen to the latest episode or subscribe for free in iTunes and get your Fantasy fix wherever you are. Listen to our latest episode!Subscribe via iTunes today! |
Quarterbacks
Get 'em active ...
Matt Ryan (vs. Minnesota) -- To quote the Macho Man Randy Savage, "The beat goes on and the beat goes on and the beat goes on, yeah." We went with Matt Ryan as the start at quarterback last week and got another very solid game, so I am calling for the Matty Ice beat to go on again in Week 12 against the Vikings. Ryan is starting to play like the Top 8 Fantasy quarterback I thought he would be back on Draft Day and it could not come at a better time for your Fantasy teams. Over the last three games, Ryan is averaging 31 yards and two touchdowns passing per game while producing 23 Fantasy points on a weekly basis. He has a 100 percent consistency rate during that span and has two big games as well. In fact, he has a 100 percent consistency rate in his last five games and has not been below 16 points during that span. You know he loves to play indoors and Ryan gets to stay in a dome again at home in Week 12. In his seven dome games this year, Ryan has produced 15 total touchdowns and has an 86 percent consistency rate. Look for another game of 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns from Ryan in Week 12 as he faces a Minnesota team that has allowed a league high 22.6 points per games to quarterbacks this year. Carson Palmer did not have to throw much at all last week and still posted a very solid 18 Fantasy points in the Raiders win last Sunday. Over their last four games, opposing quarterbacks have topped 30 points three times against the Vikings' 29th-ranked secondary and are averaging a whopping 30.5 points during that span. In fact, no quarterback has been below 18 points against the Vikings in five straight games, so it is all adding up to a big game for Matty Ice. (Projection Snapshot: 310 yards passing and three TDs)
Others to start: Philip Rivers (vs. Denver); Tim Tebow (at San Diego); Michael Vick or Vince Young (vs. New England)
Ride the pine ...
Matt Leinart (at Jacksonville) -- Matt Schaub had been playing very well of late with 19 or more Fantasy points in three of his last four games. In fact, he has been averaging 19 points per game over his last eight games despite throwing it 30 or more times on only four occasions. Unfortunately for Texans' fans, he could be done for the year with a Lis Franc injury and the team must turn to Matt Leinart at quarterback for Week 12 and beyond. Leinart is not someone you should be starting in Week 12, because I fully expect the Texans to ease him into the game and let their dominant running attack shoulder most of the offensive burden. What made Schaub so good lately was his ridiculous efficiency as he continually produced on minimal chances. In fact, Schaub posted an incredibly impressive 8.5 yards per attempt this year, which is second only to Aaron Rodgers.
Leinart will have Andre Johnson back (which Schaub did not) and that will certainly help, but Leinart has to show a lot before we consider him a great Fantasy option. He is often prone to checking down immediately, which is fine given Arian Foster's ability to take a dump off pass to the house, but I do not think we will see Leinart get it done for Fantasy purposes unless he is playing an opponent that he will actually have to beat with his arm. Keep in mind that in his last 16 starts, while playing with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in a pass first offense, Leinart managed only three multiple passing touchdown games and topped 300 yards only once. He also averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt, which means he needs to throw it a lot to post big totals. That will not happen this week against the Jaguars defense, so keep Leinart reserved this week for Fantasy purposes. I am also staying away from the sinking Ryan Fitzpatrick ship in Buffalo. (Projection Snapshot: 186 yards passing with one TD and one INT)
Running Backs
Get 'em active ...
Chris Johnson (vs. Tampa Bay) -- Last week Chris Johnson went back to being a maddening Fantasy player as he was held to 13 yards rushing on 12 carries. However, it was far from an ideal matchup as he took on an Atlanta run defense that had been the toughest on opposing Fantasy backs in the entire NFL over the previous five games. So it was not a huge surprise that he was locked down in Week 11, but do yourself a favor and go with him again in Week 12 against the Bucs. Tampa is surrendering 24 points per game to opposing running backs -- second most in the NFL -- and they have been absolutely in the giving spirit of late. In their last four games, the Bucs have given up a total of 140 points to opposing runners and no team has been under 16 Fantasy points during that span, while three teams have topped 35 points. Johnson excelled with 23 Fantasy points in his very favorable matchup with the Panthers in Week 10 and I think we see another 16-plus points from Johnson this week. Enjoy this favorable matchup like it was a smoked turkey leg and get your "favorite" first round pick back into your lineups. (Projection Snapshot: 103 yards rushing, 22 yards receiving and one TD)
Jonathan Stewart (at Indianapolis) -- I think both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are worthy starts for your team as low end second running backs or flex options against the Colts in Week 12, but if I had to pick one of them, I'd go with J-Stew. Stewart is coming off of a game in which he racked up 109 total yards. He is on the field for about two of every three offensive snaps which gives him the edge, as does the fact that he has seen nine goal line chances this year (tied for 11th), while DeAngelo has seen none. Stewart has produced double-digit Fantasy points in three of his last five games and I think he makes it four of six against the Colts. After all, the Colts are giving up 145.6 yards (second) and 1.2 touchdowns (third) per game on the ground, so this is as good a matchup as it gets. It should come as no surprise then that the Colts allow 23.2 points per game to opposing runners, third overall. In fact, in eight straight games, opposing runners have produced at least 16 points this year and only once were they below 19 points. For the year, there have been six games of 20-plus points and eight games of 19 or more points. Look for J-Stew to get you over the 10-point threshold, making him a very solid start for your teams on Sunday. (Projection Snapshot: 52 yards rushing, 29 yards receiving and a TD)
Others to start: Beanie Wells (at St. Louis); DeAngelo Williams (at Indianapolis); Kevin Smith (vs. Green Bay); Ryan Grant (if James Starks is out at Detroit); Marion Barber (at Oakland) is a great sleeper flex
Ride the pine ...
Toby Gerhart (at Atlanta) -- Adrian Peterson is out and you may be scrambling for a replacement. Don't let that replacement be Toby Gerhart in Week 12. Gerhart has played well this year, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, but I did not like what I saw against the Raiders in Week 11. First off, Gerhart was held to 18 yards on seven carries and added only one catch for seven yards, which was pretty unimpressive. Secondly, Gerhart will not be the true featured back, as you can expect to see plenty of Percy Harvin in the backfield this week as the team tries to replace Peterson's play-making ability in the ground game. Harvin had five carries for 21 yards last week and he could approach 10 carries this week against the Falcons. If that is not enough to convince you to stay away from Gerhart, how about the fact that he has the second toughest possible matchup for a running back this week? The Falcons enter Week 12 allowing just 11.4 points per game to opposing runners, second only to the 49ers, but of late they have been the best in the league. In their last four games (and five of their last six), no group of running backs has generated even 10 points against the Falcons. Think about that for a second. In these last four games, the Falcons are giving up just 6.25 points per game to opposing rushers and no one has scored on them. Only one rusher has topped 50 yards in these last four games and in their last two they have held the Titans and Saints runners to a combined 54 yards on 28 carries (yep, that's 1.9 yards per carry). This would have been a tougher one for Peterson and with him out, stay away from Gerhart if you can at all avoid it. (Projection Snapshot: 32 yards rushing and 9 yards receiving)
Ryan Mathews (vs. Denver) -- Injuries on the offensive line have really crippled the running game of the Chargers over the last two weeks, which has put a big dent into the Fantasy production of Ryan Mathews. After topping 110 total yards in six of his first seven games, Mathews has not gotten to 55 total yards in either of his last two, as the Chargers have all but abandoned the ground game. Mathews has just 19 carries in the last two games and you already know he has to share some carries, catches and of course the goal line work with teammate Mike Tolbert. That makes it very difficult to recommend him (or Tolbert really) as a quality start this week against the Broncos. The Broncos have been a very stout run defense of late and their front seven could feast on a San Diego line that could be starting three backups again this week. The Broncos have not allowed a team to run for 100 yards in three straight games and they have not allowed a running back to run in a score during that span either. In fact, the Broncos have allowed only one running back to run for a touchdown against them all season, second only to the San Francisco 49ers in that regard. However, they have allowed at least seven receiving points to running backs in three straight, which would be great if Mathews was not losing a lot of the receiving work to Tolbert too. With a battered line, shared touches and a matchup with what has been a very tough run defense of late, Mathews is not expected to provide the kind of stat sheet stuffing you are looking for this Thanksgiving week. (Projection Snapshot: 47 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving)
Wide Receivers
Get 'em active ...
Percy Harvin (at Atlanta) -- Harvin is coming on very strong now that his rib injury is back to 100 percent and it could not come at a better time for fantasy owners. Harvin has caught at least six passes in each of the last two games and has produced at least 70 total yards in three straight games. He is on the field for just about every offensive snap for the first time all year and is seeing his highest utilization of the season as well. He is coming off of his best game of the year, in which he caught six of his eight targets for 73 yards and his first receiving score of the year to go with a season high five carries for 21 yards. With Adrian Peterson out, look for Harvin to be the main weapon for the Vikings and he could see up to 10 carries against the Falcons to go with another eight targets or so. Those kind of opportunities make Harvin a solid start against an Atlanta team that has struggled to slow down wide receivers in recent games. For the year, the Falcons are giving up the eighth most points to opposing receivers at 22.6 points per game and in their last two, they have given up three wide receiver scores and a total of 55 points. Look for Christian Ponder to lean on his talented playmaker and that makes Harvin, who has a score in tow of his last three games, a very solid third receiver for your squads this week. (Projection Snapshot; 63 yards receiving and 27 yards rushing, one TD)
|
| For more from Nathan check out his website at thefantasyconsultant.com |
Nate Burleson (vs. Green Bay) -- "Nasty Nate" is getting back into the mix for the Lions and that makes him a nice Thanksgiving sleeper for your teams at the third receiver position. In his last two games, Burleson has seen 16 targets and caught a very solid 15 of them for 146 yards and a touchdown. In fact, Burleson has now seen seven or more targets in four of his last five games and has reached at least nine points in three of those games. This week, he takes on a Packers team that is allowing the second most points to opposing receivers, 25.4 per week. The Packers even helped Tampa Bay's Mike Williams look like a legit receiver last week and will have their hands full with all of the weapons in the Detroit attack. Green Bay will be focused on slowing down Megatron, which has been good news for Nate, as he has topped 70 yards receiving in each of the last two games. The Packers have already allowed seven touchdowns to opposing secondary receivers, seventh most in the league, and have given up 30-plus points to receivers in two of the last three games. This should be a high scoring affair and Burleson is a great sleeper to go with in your third receiver slot. (Projection Snapshot; 70 yards receiving, five catches and one TD)
Others to start: All three Giants receivers (at New Orleans), Antonio Brown (at Kansas City), Torrey Smith (vs. San Francisco) and some sleepers: Early Doucet (at St. Louis), Titus Young (vs. Green Bay), Denarius Moore (vs. Chicago), Damian Williams (vs. Tampa Bay), Nate Washington (vs. Tampa Bay)
Ride the pine ...
Mike Williams (at Tennessee) -- The Titans have allowed a league low one passing touchdown to an opponent's top target, so those looking for Williams to go on a two-game touchdown streak will likely be disappointed. Mike Wallace is the only No. 1 receiver who has found the end zone against the Titans and that came back in Week 5. Since then, only Roddy White has produced double-digit Fantasy points against the Titans, who held Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin without a touchdown and under 50 yards. In fact, only A.J. Green, Roddy White and Mike Wallace have topped 80 yards receiving against the Titans this season, which does not bode well for Williams. He has topped 80 yards only once (60 yards only three times) and has just two scores on the year. Given that the Titans have been able to keep opposing top targets under 10 points in eight of their 10 games, I am not risking another dud from Williams in Week 12, who has five games under five points on the year. Keep him reserved along with another bust at wide receiver this year -- Steve Johnson of the Bills -- who has to go back to Revis Island. (Projection Snapshot: 58 yards receiving)
Tight Ends
Get 'em active ...
Heath Miller (at Kansas City) -- The Chiefs have been struggling with tight ends lately and have now given up seven tight end touchdowns this season, seventh most. Now, Miller is no Rob Gronkowski, but he has been a solid Fantasy tight end with at least three catches in eight straight games and five games of seven-plus points. The Chiefs have been surrendering 10.2 points per game to opposing tight ends this year -- second most in the NFL -- and a closer look at the numbers shows that they could be even worse. In their last three games, despite facing two teams with no stud tight ends in Miami and Denver, the Chiefs have still given up 46 Fantasy points. Even more remarkable is that they have given up those 46 despite not allowing a tight end to catch a pass in that Denver game in which Tim Tebow completed only two passes. In their last three games against teams with a legit starting tight end, not a single one had been below eight points and frankly if it were not for a referee blunder in the San Diego game which robbed Antonio Gates of a touchdown, they would have allowed at least 15 points to every starter. Miller is not a huge name, but if he is on your waiver wire or on your bench and you need a tight end, go ahead and plug him in for an excellent matchup. (Projection Snapshot: 62 yards receiving and one TD)
Others to start: Brandon Pettigrew (vs. Green Bay); Tony Scheffler (vs. Green Bay); Kellen Winslow (at Tennessee); Jermaine Gresham (vs. Cleveland)
Good luck this week!
| |
| Target Conversion Rate or Catch Rate (TCR): The percentage of a player's targets (passes thrown to them) that are converted into receptions. Over 60 percent is excellent, 66 percent is elite and under 52.5 percent is worrisome. Yards per Target (YPT): A player's receiving yards divided by his targets. In other words, the numbers of yards a team gains on average every time they attempt a pass to a certain player. Over 10 is exceptional, over 8 is solid and 6 or lower is horrendous. Red Zone Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 20 yard line Red Zone TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Red Zone opportunities that result in a TD Goal Line Opportunities: A player's total number of pass+rush+targets inside the opponent's 5 yard line Goal Line TD Rate: The percentage of a player's Goal Line opportunities that result in a TD Consistency Rate: The percentage of quality starts a player gives you out of 16 games. For QBs that is a game with 300+ yards passing OR multiple TDs. For RBs/WRs: A game with 100+ yards rush/rec or a game with a TD. For TEs: A game with 60+ yards receiving or a TD. For a Kicker: A game with multiple FGs. Big Game Rate: The percentage of dominant starts a player gives you out of 16 games (games missed with injury count as a bad game since they do not help your Fantasy teams). For a QB that is a game with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs or 200+ yards and 3+ TDs. For a RB/WR that is a game with 100+ combined rush/rec yards and a TD or a game with multiple TDs. For a TE that is a game of 60+ yards and a TD, 100+ yards or a game with multiple TDs. |
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Nathan at @NathanZeguraTFC .
