Week 15 Fantasy Faceoffs
Editor's note: Each week Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg and Nathan Zegura will tackle lineup dilemmas that you might be facing. These subjects are derived from discrepancies in Dave's and Jamey's weekly rankings .
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 I'm not terribly excited about starting Michael Vick this week given his mediocre numbers last week at Miami and the matchup against the Jets this week. But I like his chances to put up stats in any game where he'll get pushed out of the pocket and could run for big gains as well as throw a lot. The Jets have been done great against suspect passers like Tim Tebow, Rex Grossman and Tyler Palko lately but did let up three touchdowns each to pass-oriented offenses like the Patriots and Bills in recent weeks. The Eagles will certainly throw on Sunday and Vick should be able to improve on last week's numbers. His upside is too great to pass on, and then there's the other issue of who you'd bench him for. With Ben Roethlisberger banged up and in a tough matchup, Philip Rivers facing a fierce Ravens defense and a number of other quarterbacks with mediocre outlooks, you're probably best off taking your chances with Vick. The Jets are good but certainly beatable through the air, and Vick should be in a position to post some numbers.I'd start him over: Rex Grossman (at NYG), Carson Palmer (vs. DET), Ben Roethlisberger (at SF) |
 Michael Vick has not produced a 13 point Fantasy game since October 30th against the Cowboys. Since then he has missed time due to injury and has been held to nine points against the Bears, eight points against the Cardinals and 12 points against the Dolphins. He has just one passing touchdown and four interceptions in those last three games and his rib injury is clearly not 100 percent, which is limiting his effectiveness as a runner. Last week against Miami, Vick ran for a season low nine yards on a season low two attempts. He was trying to protect himself for more punishment and it is clear that he will be in survival mode again this week. Here is what Vick had to say after the win over Miami, "I'm in a lot of pain, but I just wanted to finish and get through the game," Vick said. "I got hit a lot, and it kind of wore me down. I tried to hang in there." The Jets will be fighting for their playoff lives and will try to get "punish" Vick early and often this week. The Jets have allowed three quarterbacks to top 20 points this year, but they have also held six quarterbacks below 10 points and 10 under 17 points. To put it into perspective, Tony Romo, Tom Brady and the surprising Ryan Fitzpatrick combined for eight passing touchdowns in three games against the Jets. In the other 10 games against them, quarterbacks have combined for four passing scores and 14 interceptions, while producing an average of 7.7 points per game. Vick has not played liked a superstar in months and I would not take the shot that he breaks out of his funk against one of the toughest pass defenses in the NFL so he will be on my bench in all of my leagues.I'd rather start: Tim Tebow (vs. NE), Rex Grossman (at NYG), Matt Ryan (vs. JAC) |
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| This is a tough question. There's no way I'd go with Rashard Mendenhall against the Niners' top-notch run defense and while Willis McGahee has the easiest matchup of the three, I am not convinced that he's close to 100 percent healthy. So by default, I'll take Gore. I'll admit that he also isn't healthy, but he probably has the best chance to score of the three. McGahee could become a non-factor early if the Patriots put up some points and Mendenhall won't score. Gore has done well in tough matchups this year including just last week against a much improved Cardinals run defense. I like that he's playing at home, I like that James Harrison won't be on the field and I also like that his defense should be able to coax some turnovers out of the Steelers offense that could put him in some favorable situations. With six of the eight total touchdowns the Steelers have allowed to running backs coming on the road, he's the one I'd trust the most of these three. |
| This is not nearly as much of an endorsement of Willis McGahee as it is a stay away from Frank Gore and Rashard Mendenhall if possible. Mendenhall has been a bust this year and takes on the top-ranked run defense in the NFL and the only team that has not allowed a single rushing touchdown this year in the 49ers. In their last four games alone, the 49ers have held Beanie Wells (twice), Ray Rice and Steven Jackson to a grand total of 12 Fantasy points combined! That is not a misprint. Keep in mind that only one rusher has reached 60 yards against the Niners this year and that Mendenhall himself has only reached 60 yards rushing five times this season. Given that no running back has reached 10 Fantasy points against the 49ers based on rushing totals alone and that Mendenhall offers nothing as a receiver, he is a big time sit this week. As for Gore, he is not 100 percent according to his head coach and was able to see only 10 carries as a result against the Cardinals in Week 14, which was a game the 49ers had to have. Gore has not run for 100 yards in five straight games and has just one touchdown in his last six, so his expectations against the Steelers have to be modest. In their last four games, the Steelers have not allowed a single runner over five points against them and they have not surrendered a single running back score. That does not bode well for an unhealthy Gore in Week 15, which is why I turn my attention to McGahee. McGahee has as many 100 yard rushing games this year as both Mendenhall and Gore combined and is facing a New England run defense that has allowed at least 11 points to the opposing starter in three straight games. Donald Brown, LeSean McCoy and Roy Helu all reached double digits during that span and you can bet the Broncos will want to run McGahee ragged this week to keep Tom Brady off of the field. His knee is a concern, so if he can not practice this week, I would probably drop him below Gore, but if he is healthy and ready to go, I think he is your best bet. |
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| This one makes me nervous. I'm a huge fan of Demaryius Thomas this week, but I'd chicken out of starting him and go with DeSean Jackson instead. There is huge risk with both guys as they're boom-or-bust types with top-notch skills. No doubt that Thomas has the easier matchup but I can't shake the feeling that the Eagles will throw plenty, even against the Jets. The more they throw, then the more targets Jackson will get. Darrelle Revis is a great cornerback but we have seen him get beat by speedsters (Steve Johnson this year, Randy Moss last year). All it takes is for Michael Vick to scramble out of trouble and connect with Jackson deep, which we effectively saw last week when they connected on a bomb against a good Miami secondary. |
| Demaryius Thomas is a physical freak who I have long thought could develop into a poor man's Calvin Johnson for reasons other than the fact that they both went to Georgia Tech. Thomas is an unbelievable combination of size and speed and if you remember, I thought he would for sure be the best receiver in Denver once they shifted to Tim Tebow because he should have been able to win all of the one-on-one battles on the outside. That was not the case initially, as Eric Decker was the main man for Tebow early on, but in the last two games, Thomas has become the go-to guy. In these two games, Thomas has seen a team high 20 targets and has taken advantage of those opportunities with 11 catches for 222 yards and three touchdowns. That's only a 55 percent catch rate, but he is a big-play guy who is averaging over 20 yards per catch and 11.1 yards per target in those two games. He has also topped double digit points in each of those two games, which is good when you consider that DeSean Jackson has needed eight games to produce two with 10 or more points. The matchup this week also favors Thomas, who takes on a Patriots team that allows a league high 29.85 points per game to wide receivers. In their last three games, which have clearly come against the NFL's elite quarterbacks ( Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman) the Patriots have given up six receiver touchdowns and 41.67 points per game to the position. They have allowed 20 points in every single game and in 11 straight games (12 out of 13 on the year) at least two opposing receivers have produced seven or more points. That's a stark contrast to the Jets, who have allowed 15 points per game to receivers, third fewest this year, and who have only allowed nine receivers to reach seven points against them in their last 10 games. Yes, Thomas is risky, but I loved the Moss and Gaffney combo last week and I will take my chances with DT against the hapless Pats secondary in Week 15 over a slumping DeSean Jackson on Revis Island. |
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| I know what we're going to get out of Anthony Fasano ... five or six Fantasy points. That's what he's delivered in four of his last five games. Dustin Keller has had five or more targets in each of his last four games and is starting to look more like a contributor and not a bystander in the Jets offense. Meanwhile, the Eagles' pass defense against tight ends is starting to slide; they've allowed at least 50 yards receiving to four tight ends in their last three games. Sure, that includes the Patriots' gruesome twosome but it also includes Seahawks has-been Zach Miller and Nathan's buddy Fasano. If these guys are equal, I'll take the tight end with more upside in Keller. |
| Dustin Keller certainly has more upside than Anthony Fasano on any given Sunday, but Fasano has been the more consistent of the two lately and has the best matchup of any tight end in Week 15, so I would take my shot on him. In his last six games, Keller has just two games of five or more points, but one of them was an 18 point barrage against the Bills. Fasano, who gets to play those very same Bills this week, has produced 50 yards or a touchdown in five of his last six games and has been a steady contributor. He has led the team in receiving yards in each of the last two games and has seen a healthy 14 targets in those two contests. He only had two catches for eight yards in the last meeting with the Bills but did score a touchdown and I think another trip to the end zone is likely in Week 15. The Bills have given up six touchdowns to tight ends in their last four games alone and have allowed a league high nine scores and a league high 10.15 points per game to tight ends over the course of the season. More consistency and a better matchup says to me that Fasano is a gamble worth taking if you are still scrambling for a tight end to start in Week 15. |
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| 1. Aaron Rodgers. How can it not be Rodgers?! The Packers offense should remain powerful and he's got the weapons to keep dominating. Until that changes, the automatic 20-plus Fantasy points you'll get out of him will eliminate at least one weekly headache from your roster. 2. Arian Foster. Fantasy Football is still about having great running backs and Foster has passed the test this season of being worthy of an early-round pick once again. His double-digit touchdown production combined with his receiving skills and awesome offensive line make him the best rusher in the league. 3. LeSean McCoy. When the Eagles drafted McCoy we touted him as a Brian Westbrook clone. Well, he's better than Westbrook. He's the perfect back for the scheme the Eagles run and as long as that scheme stays in Philadelphia this offseason, he's an easy choice. 4. Adrian Peterson. Back-to-back late-season injuries take a tiny bit of shine off of AP, but he's still about as dependable as it gets. I'd like to see his offensive line get re-tooled a bit, but other than that he's still warrants a Top 5 pick. 5. Maurice Jones-Drew. So many words describe the Jaguars' superstar: Dependable. Productive. Consistent. Awesome. MJD played this season with a rookie quarterback and a slew of below-average receivers and he's got over 1,500 total yards and 10 total touchdowns through 13 games. Par for the course from Jones-Drew. |
| 1. Arian Foster. Foster will be the top player on my board in 2012 because of his ability to consistently produce total yards and score touchdowns. He has a league best 20.2 points-per-game average and would have been the top back had he not missed nearly three games early in the season. Next year, with Matt Schaub and a healthy Andre Johnson, I expect the Texans to be a dominant offense, making Foster a beast. 2. Ray Rice. Rice was No. 1 on my board for 2011 and has been very steady this year with 235 points through 13 games. He has been great at the goal line with eight scores up close, second in the NFL. Like Foster, he is a great dual threat back who can help you running or receiving who also is his team's goal line back, which is always a great combo. 3. LeSean McCoy (PHI). McCoy is slightly ahead of Adrian Peterson for me right now due to his youth and my concerns about Peterson starting to wear down from his extremely physical running style. McCoy is currently the league's top Fantasy back and has also been the most consistent runner, with 100 yards or a score in all 13 games. He is tops in terms of games with a score (12) and games of 100 plus total yards (9), so like the other two, he can do it all. 4. Adrian Peterson. He is a stud and produces week in and week out, no matter what is going on around him. He is averaging 17.1 points per game this year and scored in eight of his 10 games played. These four are head and shoulders above the rest as far as I am concerned for 2012. 5. Calvin Johnson. I know he has struggled lately, but Calvin slightly edges out Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski (I'm kidding ... maybe!) for the fifth overall spot. Despite his recent swoon, Megatron still has 13 game totals of 72 catches for 1,121 yards and 12 touchdowns, which is very impressive. He'd be the fifth-ranked running back right now to put into perspective how great he has been this season and I expect only bigger and better things in 2012 as he and Matthew Stafford continue to develop their chemistry. |
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