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Michael Hurcomb

Four Quarters: Few owners cash in with Brown

By | Fantasy Writer


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Thanks to the marketing department at shipping conglomerate UPS, the world will forever be haunted by the slogan, "What can brown do for you?"

Up until Sunday I honestly didn't think many Americans gave a hoot. But now the Colts and Fantasy Football owners have an answer to the riddle.

Third-year running back Donald Brown rushed for a career-high 161 yards, including a game-clinching 80-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, giving us a pretty good idea what Brown can do for you.

"I think the world of him, as a football player, more as a person," quarterback Dan Orlovsky told reporters of Brown. "He is a guy I feel gets better with every carry. He starts to run better as the game goes on. His eyes, I think get better. I don't know how to play running back, but I feel when he gets the touches he can make plays. He continues to do that."

But up until 2011 the former UConn standout and 2009 first-round pick has been more of a Fantasy bust than boom. Plagued by injuries and uninspiring play, Brown entered this season third on the depth chart behind Joseph Addai and rookie Delone Carter.

Brown didn't even get a carry this season until the fifth game against Kansas City, when a hamstring injury befell Addai. If it weren't for that injury, then Brown still might be meddling in obscurity.

Brown still had to wait patiently behind Carter, but once the rookie started experiencing fumbling issues, Brown struck when the iron was hot and hasn't looked back.

Orlovsky's former teammate at Connecticut averaged 4.8 yards per carry in October, 4.6 yards per carry in November and is now averaging 5.9 yards per carry in December. He also has a rushing touchdown in five of his last nine games.

Durability has been Brown's key to success this season. Being able to stay off the trainer's table has allowed Brown to finally live up to his potential and become a complete package for the Colts and Fantasy owners.

First Quarter -- Surprises of the Week

Matt Ryan was just the second quarterback in the last nine games to throw multiple touchdowns against the Jaguars ... Michael Vick was just the fourth quarterback this season with 20-plus Fantasy points against the Jets ... Cam Newton was just the second quarterback with 20-plus Fantasy points against the Texans, joining Drew Brees ... C.J. Spiller racked up 28 Fantasy points against a Miami defense yielding 12.7 Fantasy points per week to running backs ... Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert combined for three rushing touchdowns against a Baltimore defense that allowed a total of six rushing touchdowns to running backs in its first 13 games ... Reggie Bush continued his remarkable December with a career-high 203 rushing yards against Buffalo. He now has 406 rushing yards in three December games and just might end up being the key to many Fantasy championships this year. That's just weird to say ... Who would have thought that the week Adrian Peterson returns to the lineup is the week Toby Gerhart gets his first career multi-touchdown game ... Only 12 percent of owners started Raiders receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey during his career-best performance (155 yards) against Detroit, who have allowed only four receivers to surpass 100 yards this season ... Browns rookie Greg Little finally had the breakout performance (131 yards) we have been waiting for all season ... Brent Celek took advantage of a Jets secondary missing safety Jim Leonhard to lead all tight ends with 156 receiving yards Week 15 ... Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez also took advantage of a secondary in distress as Broncos safety Brian Dawkins was out Sunday due to injury. That freed up Hernandez to finish with 19 Fantasy points against a defense coming into Week 15 yielding just 5.3 Fantasy points per week to tight ends.

Second Quarter -- Duds of the Week

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Matt Hasselbeck became just the second quarterback, joining rookie Blaine Gabbert, to record less than 10 Fantasy points against the Colts this season ... Eli Manning stunned his Fantasy owners with a three-interception, no-touchdown performance against Washington. He had less Fantasy points than Caleb Hanie, Dan Orlovsky and Jake Locker, who played less than seven minutes in the fourth quarter ... Many Fantasy owners started Texans backup running back Ben Tate as a No. 3 Fantasy running back or flex option in Week 15 against a beleaguered Panthers run defense yielding 24.1 Fantasy points per week to running backs. Tate rushed for a disappointing 26 yards on seven carries ... Marion Barber followed up his 108-yard rushing performance in Week 14 with 33 yards on the ground in Week 15 ... Brandon Jacobs cooled off after three straight strong Fantasy performances to rush for no touchdowns and 33 yards against Washington ... Kevin Smith returned from an ankle injury in Week 15 to face one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. He managed just 43 rushing yards against a Raiders defense yielding 21.2 Fantasy points per week to running backs ... Percy Harvin finally settled down, and it surprisingly came against a Saints defense yielding 23.5 Fantasy points per week to receivers ... Jordy Nelson stepped into the starting lineup in place of the injured Greg Jennings. Nelson responded with two Fantasy points in a loss to Kansas City ... The Bucs' Mike Williams has been bad this year, but he hit a new low with no targets Saturday against Dallas ... Falcons veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez saved his worst performance (one Fantasy point) for when owners needed him most.

Third Quarter -- Injury Report

Bengals rookie receiver A.J. Green played through a Grade 3 sprain of his right shoulder Sunday. He needed a cortisone injection to make it through the game against St. Louis, but Green said afterward that he won't let this injury keep him out the last two games ... Bills receiver Steve Johnson suffered a groin injury late in the game Sunday against Miami ... Giants tight end Jake Ballard suffered a knee sprain on his only reception in Week 15. He tried to play through it, but was unable.

Fourth Quarter -- Early Look Ahead

Most of the games in Week 16 will be played on Christmas Eve (Saturday), so keep that in mind before taking a break for the holidays ... Thanks to the Giants loss to the Redskins and the Eagles rout of the Jets, the NFC East race is interesting again. Left-for-dead Philadelphia still has a chance for the playoffs if it can knock off division rival Dallas in Week 16 and the Jets can defeat the Giants. That would make Week 17 very interesting ... Arizona at Cincinnati isn't a marquee matchup, but both teams are still clinging to playoff hopes. Although, this could be a defensive battle since neither team has scored more than 24 points in its last seven games ... Oakland at Kansas City also has playoff implications for the wild AFC West ... San Diego at Detroit has the makings to be the game of the week. San Diego has won its last three games and hasn't allowed an opponent to score more than 16 points in four straight games. Detroit has struggled defensively in the second half of the season, allowing 27 or more points in six straight games. This could be a quarterback duel between Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford ... The Monday night game in Week 16 is an NFC South showdown between Atlanta and New Orleans. The Falcons will head to the Superdome looking to avenge an earlier overtime loss at home this season to the Saints.

Overtime -- Q & A

I've got Marshawn Lynch, however, next week he's at San Francisco. Do I keep him in or plug in Felix Jones (vs. Philadelphia) or Rashard Mendenhall (vs. St. Louis)? --Ben Robles (Facebook)

MH: I understand your dilemma. The Eagles and Rams are two of the worst teams in the NFL against the run, allowing 19 or more Fantasy points per week to running backs, while the 49ers are stout against the run and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.

Lynch rushed for just 33 yards and no touchdowns on 13 carries against the 49ers in Week 1. However, he has been a different running back since then. He has a rushing touchdown in all but one of his last 10 games. And in the game he didn't rush for a score, Lynch had a receiving touchdown. That's 10 games in a row with a touchdown.

The only back I would entertain starting over Lynch is Jones, who is coming off consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. However, he has no touchdowns in either game and has lost two fumbles.

Despite the tough matchup, I will not be the guy that tells you to bench Lynch, who has 10-plus Fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games.

I have a decision to make in my championship game in Week 16. Choose one of these three running backs: Frank Gore vs. Seattle, Beanie Wells vs. Bengals or Michael Turner vs. Saints. --John Schmitt (Facebook)

MH: I'm going with Turner. He hasn't scored in his last two games against New Orleans, but he rushed for 96 yards in their earlier matchup this season and has had less than 61 yards just once in six games against New Orleans since he joined Atlanta.

Turner also has four rushing touchdowns in those six games and the Saints are yielding 17.9 Fantasy points per week to running backs this season. The Seahawks and Bengals are allowing 16.4 or less Fantasy points per week to running backs.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow us on Facebook. You can also follow Michael via Twitter @CBSHurc

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Player News
Kellen Winslow
Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012
News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."
Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.
Jamaal Charles
Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012
News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.
Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.
Hakeem Nicks
Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012
News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.
Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012
News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."
Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.
Sam Bradford
Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012
News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."
Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.
Matt Hasselbeck
Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012
News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."
Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.
Brandon Lloyd
Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012
News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."
Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.
Ronnie Hillman
Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."
Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.
Jacob Tamme
Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."
Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.
Stephen Hill
Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012
News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.
Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.
 
 
 
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