Four Quarters: Fantasy lesson learned

Fantasy Writer

Dec. 25, 2011 4:44 PM ET

Playing for a Fantasy championship kind of takes me back to the days when I was a kid on Christmas Eve.

That same angst and anticipation having to wait one more day to see what jolly ol' St. Nick was going to leave under the Christmas Tree mirrors the same anguish Fantasy Football owners wrestle with on a weekly basis -- waiting to see if their lineup decisions end with reward or devastation.

The most turmoil facing Fantasy owners heading into Week 16 was what to do with Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch?

Lynch came into Saturday on quite a run. He had scored in 10 straight games and had less than 10 Fantasy points (standard formats) just once in that stretch. Yet, with many Fantasy leagues hosting its championship game Week 16, Lynch owners ponder whether or not to start the streaking back or bench him with San Francisco on the schedule?

San Francisco entered play Saturday yielding 8.0 Fantasy points per week to running backs, which was the lowest average in the NFL. Running backs were also averaging just 58.9 rushing yards per game and no running back had more than 64 rushing yards against the stout 49ers run defense. Most impressive, however, was that San Francisco hadn't allowed a rushing touchdown all season.

Let's not forget either that Lynch rushed for just 33 yards and no touchdowns in Week 1 against the 49ers.

Those factors definitely scared off some Lynch owners as his starting percentage dropped from 93 percent in Week 15 to 87 percent in Week 16. But Lynch taught us a valuable Fantasy lesson moving forward -- don't remove players on insane hot streaks from your lineups, no matter the matchup.

Lynch finished with 107 rushing yards on 21 carries, becoming the first running back to top 100 yards against the 49ers since Green Bay's Ryan Grant did it in Week 11 of the 2009 season. Also, Lynch became the first player this season to score on the ground against San Francisco when he broke to the outside and dodged a few tackles on his way to a 4-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

You want to talk about Draft Day value? Lynch was the 32nd most drafted running back in CBSSports.com leagues, behind the likes of Joseph Addai, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Grant, and wasn't drafted on average until the seventh round in 12-team standard formats.

Lynch is now a top 5 Fantasy scoring running back and has his first 1,000-yard season since 2008.

"If Marshawn Lynch isn't in the Pro Bowl, there is something wrong with the voting system," Seattle wide receiver Doug Baldwin said Saturday. "Plain and simple, he's proved it week in and week out."

First Quarter -- Surprises of the Week

Andy Dalton was just the second quarterback in the last nine games against Arizona to throw for multiple touchdowns ... Kevin Smith became the first running back to produce multiple touchdowns in a game against San Diego this season ... Evan Royster was pressed into his first start Week 16 against the Vikings after Roy Helu was inactive. Royster responded with his first 100-yard game against a defense yielding just 90.8 rushing yards per game to running backs ... Steven Jackson going over 100 yards might have been even more impressive seeing how Pittsburgh was yielding 86.3 rushing yards per game to running backs and no running back went over 100 yards against Pittsburgh since Arian Foster did it in Week 4 ... Continuing the trend of improbable 100-yard games, Peyton Hillis rushed for 112 yards against a Ravens defense allowing running backs to average 81.4 rushing yards per game ... Thanks in large part to a 99-yard touchdown, breakout Fantasy star Victor Cruz became just the second receiver this year to break 100 yards against the Jets, joining Wes Welker ... Brandon LaFell also used a 90-plus yard touchdown catch to propel him to a 100-yard game against the Bucs ... Jared Cook is picking the wrong time to have his breakout run as he has now gone over 100 yards in two straight games. Sadly, he hasn't been started in more than 7 percent of Fantasy leagues in either week ... Evan Moore seems to be one of the only tight ends able to score against the Ravens. After a touchdown Saturday, he now owns two of the three touchdowns scored by tight ends against Baltimore this season.

Second Quarter -- Duds of the Week

Philip Rivers earned back the trust of Fantasy owners during San Diego's three-game win streak to open December. Sadly, Rivers fell way short of expectations Week 16 against the Lions secondary that gave up nine passing touchdowns in its previous four games. Rivers threw one touchdown and two interceptions, while finishing with 13 Fantasy points ... Tim Tebow was in a similar situation going into a matchup with the Bills, who had just two interceptions to 16 passing touchdowns allowed in their previous seven games. Tebow had one touchdown to four interceptions ... Cedric Benson finally lost a fumble for the first time this year in Week 16 and his two lost fumbles Saturday dropped him to 1 Fantasy point for the week ... LeGarrette Blount was benched after fumbling on his first carry Saturday ... After shredding the vaunted Ravens defense for three touchdowns in Week 15, Chargers running backs Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert failed to score in Week 16 against the Lions and totaled 9 Fantasy points ... LeSean McCoy failed to deliver for Fantasy owners when it mattered the most by producing 4 Fantasy points in a win against Dallas. Although, he was hobbled by a left ankle injury for part of the game ... Beanie Wells and Chris Johnson, who were both started in at least 64 percent of leagues, didn't fare much better with just 5 Fantasy points each ... Laurent Robinson missed Tony Romo's presence the most Saturday. He had a season-low one catch and failed to score for just the second time in nine games ... Hakeem Nicks couldn't get off Revis Island in Week 16 and the 90 percent of Fantasy owners who started the third-year receiver were dealt just 2 Fantasy points ... The Panthers routed Tampa Bay, but star receiver Steve Smith hardly played a factor with one catch for 9 yards ... Jets receivers Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes combined for 8 Fantasy points against a Giants defense yielding 25.6 Fantasy points per week to receivers ... A.J. Green fell short against a Cardinals defense yielding 22.1 Fantasy points per week to receiver by producing 4 Fantasy points.

Third Quarter -- Injury Report

The injury heard around the world was the one Adrian Peterson suffered to his left knee, which was later reported as a torn ACL. Peterson's status for the start of the 2012 season could now be in doubt ... Tony Romo injured his throwing hand on the first drive of the game Week 16 against the Eagles and wouldn't return ... Christian Ponder's day ended Saturday when he suffered a concussion against Washington. Joe Webb rallied Minnesota to a win ... Reggie Bush topped 100 rushing yards for a fourth straight game Week 16, but he finished the loss to the Patriots on the sidelines because of a leg injury.

Fourth Quarter -- Early Look Ahead

All games in Week 17 will be played on New Year's Day ... The marquee matchup is the Sunday night showdown between the Cowboys and Giants, as a spot in the playoffs and the NFC East title is on the line. The last time these two teams met in Week 14 they combined for 71 points and 954 yards. Fantasy owners would love to see that production again ... Detroit at Green Bay might not be as exciting as it appears if the Packers sew up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and choose to rest some of their starters Week 17 ... Tennessee still has a shot at the playoffs, so guys like Chris Johnson, Nate Washington, Damian Williams and Jared Cook still have Fantasy value next week at Houston ... The Jets' playoff hopes are still alive as well and their Week 17 matchup should be intriguing knowing how much the Dolphins hate to lose to their AFC East foe ... Baltimore at Cincinnati could be a defensive slugfest as both teams have a lot on the line. But surprisingly when the last time these two teams met in Week 11 they combined for 55 points and 856 yards ... There will be some scoreboard watching going on next Sunday as the outcomes in Kansas City at Denver and San Diego at Oakland will decide the AFC West champion. Only Denver and Oakland remain alive in the hunt.

Overtime -- Q & A

I'm in a one-player keeper league. Who should I consider as my keeper? My team is Matthew Stafford, Wes Welker, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kellen Winslow, Reggie Wayne, Early Doucet, Matt Ryan, Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew and Johnny Knox. --Brendon Leaptrot

MH: The names that jump out are Stafford, Welker, Green, Jones, Rice, Jones-Drew and Bush. But this really comes down to Rice and MJD, who are both top 5 Fantasy draft picks heading into 2012.

If you look at the numbers, those two have been neck-and-neck in Fantasy points since Rice became a feature back in 2009. You can't really go wrong with either option.

One of my concerns is scheduling. Clearly, the Jaguars will have a more favorable schedule in 2012 as a non-playoff team. But that doesn't sway me as much as the experience factor.

MJD has been taking a beating as a featured back since 2006. He hasn't had less than 200 touches in any season since turning pro and is on pace to have 350-plus touches for a second-straight season in 2011. We all know the shelf life of a running back in the NFL is short and MJD will be entering his seventh season in 2012.

Rice is also on track to have 350-plus touches for a second-straight year in 2011, and that's not even counting the playoffs, which Rice will partake in for a fourth-straight season. But Rice is still only going to be 25 years old at the start of next season, and we still know he is going to be the focal part of the Ravens offense.

The Jaguars will be experiencing a changing of the guard, and while we doubt the new coach will completely phase out MJD, he might have a different philosophy when it comes to using the veteran back than did former Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow us on Facebook. You can also follow Michael via Twitter @CBSHurc

Garrett: Murray tweaked hamstring
DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
12:59 PM

News: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told the media Tuesday running back DeMarco Murray tweaked a hamstring over the last week. The team opted to be conservative with him and had him sit out practice on Tuesday. Murray was spotted on the sidelines during the Cowboys' first day of OTA workouts.

Analysis: Murray's injury history goes a long way back -- and the Cowboys know it. Keeping him healthy will be a tough chore for the next several months but taking careful, proactive steps like this will keep him from being absent. His health will remain key as he's missed nine games over his first two seasons in the league and has had the injury bug biting him going back to his high school days. But Murray had 10-plus Fantasy points in half of his 10 games last season and has the confidence of the coaching staff. He's a moderately risky No. 2 Fantasy running back expected to get taken between 25th and 40th overall on Draft Day.

Amendola gets to work with Brady
Danny Amendola, WR, NE
5:16 PM

News: The media got to check out the Patriots' second day of OTA workouts in New England. The Boston Globe reports new Pats wideout Danny Amendola spent a lot of time with Tom Brady, working primarily in the slot. According to the Patriots' official website Amendola looked sharp, ran his routes well and got in and out of his breaks quickly. He appeared comfortable which shouldn't be surprising given his past work in Josh McDaniels' offense. "It's familiar," Amendola said. "When Josh was in St. Louis, I got to know it pretty good. It's a little more intricate out here. It's something to grasp. I'm learning every day. It's the verbiage. That's the most important thing, the vocabulary of the offense. I'm learning, day in and day out, studying at night."

Analysis: Amendola is vitally important to the Patriots' offense after the team let Wes Welker go in free agency last year. It's tough to expect Amendola to completely replace Welker in their scheme but he has the potential to be a major factor if he can stay healthy. That's a big if -- he's missed 20 games over the last two seasons. So long as you accept Amendola as an injury-risk who doesn't have the experience of being a volume receiver like Welker, you'll be fine. Amendola is safest as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a pick in Round 7 or 8.

MJD's training moves to Miami
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
10:59 AM

News: Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley confirmed that running back Maurice Jones-Drew will step up the intensity in his workouts in Miami with noted trainer Pete Bommarito. MJD is working his way back from a Lisfranc injury. Bradley is fine with the move because he and Jones-Drew are on the same page with where the running back is at, according to the Florida Times-Union. Bradley especially wanted Jones-Drew in camp while the team installed the offense. "It’s going to take some time and it should come back," Bradley said of Jones-Drew's injured foot. "We're just taking the next step in the rehab process."

Analysis: Expectations remain MJD will be ready for the start of training camp in July and potentially be on the field for a June minicamp. Fantasy owners need to see him before drafting to have some level of confidence in his game. The injury he suffered is a tough one to come back from. On the plus side, Jones-Drew had at least 1,600 total yards in each of his previous three seasons before 2012 when he held out of training camp and ultimately got hurt after six games. Some will be afraid to draft the 28-year-old but most owners should go ahead and consider Jones-Drew a Top 15 running back for now, making him worth a pick between 20th and 30th overall in drafts assuming he is a full participant in Jags camp. That seems to be on pace to happen.

Uninfected Gronk has surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
8:51 AM

News: Rob Gronkowski had successful surgery on his left forearm Monday and doctors found no infection inside according to multiple reports. He had a new plate installed in his arm to keep things in place inside his forearm and should be done having surgery there. A consultation on his back is expected within the next three to four weeks with surgery to potentially follow.

Analysis: Great news! Unless there's a setback with the arm or a serious issue with his back Gronkowski should be ready for the start of training camp. That makes him a safer pick in Fantasy Football since he'll have the time to get ready for the season and potentially play 16 games. We're not out of the woods yet but be ready to consider Gronk with a Top 20 pick in drafts this summer.

Romo out until minicamp
Tony Romo, QB, DAL
8:37 AM

News: The Dallas Morning News reports Tony Romo had a cyst removed from his back and will be out until at least Cowboys minicamp in June. He should be fine for training camp. "If this was the regular season and I had to play next week, I could," Romo said. "This is just about being smart. That’s why I did it now. This will have no effect on training camp. No way will it have an impact. And I still think there’s a good chance I’m on the field for minicamp."

Analysis: Romo isn't a quarterback anyone is targeting on Draft Day, he's more like a passer you'll settle for starting in Round 6. There's nothing wrong with that: Romo was one of 10 quarterbacks to average over 20 Fantasy points per game (in standard formats) and has consistently put up big numbers, albeit not amazing numbers. Fantasy owners can win with Romo as their starter.

Miller works with first team
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA
5:36 PM

News: The Miami Herald reports that Dolphins running back Lamar Miller opened with the first team during Tuesday's OTA workout. The report says Miller "showed his usual good burst." Daniel Thomas and Marcus Thigpen got work behind Miller.

Analysis: Miller is expected to start for the Dolphins this year, and he should enter training camp as a potential No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a pick as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues. He recently said his goals for the season were 1,500 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. We hope he can live up to his words because he could be a special Fantasy option if that happens.

Bolden misses OTA workouts
Brandon Bolden, RB, NE
5:18 PM

News: The Boston Globe reports running back Brandon Bolden was absent from OTA practice Tuesday after spraining his ankle while training. He's expected to return in late May/early June.

Analysis: Bolden is expected to be buried on the depth chart behind starter Stevan Ridley, among others. He's unlikely to help Fantasy owners in 2013 so long as Ridley is healthy.

Taylor has hernia surgery
Jamar Taylor, CB, MIA
5:08 PM

News: Dolphins rookie cornerback Jamar Taylor had surgery to repair a hernia and will cost him up to three weeks of practice time. He's a candidate to be back for a June minicamp and should be OK for the start of training camp.

Analysis: Taylor was impressive at the Senior Bowl and certainly erased any concerns about his overall athleticism with a stellar performance at the combine. Taylor is a better all-around player than former Boise State standout Kyle Wilson, who was selected by the Jets 29th overall in 2010. But since he's a corner, he has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in most standard IDP leagues, and he's only worth a late-round pick in rookie-only IDP formats.

Goodson will plead not guilty
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5:07 PM

News: The Newark Star-Ledger has learned Jets running back Mike Goodson will plead not guilty to drug and weapons charges stemming from a mid-May arrest. His lawyer is confident jail time will be avoided. A hearing is scheduled for June 12.

Analysis: Goodson is taking in Jets workouts from the sideline, a sure sign that his roster spot is up in the air. Between the courts and the league there's no guarantee that Goodson will play for all of the 2013 season. For now owners shouldn't have him on their radars, though if his attorney is as innocent as he suggests, that would change before the majority of people hold their Fantasy drafts.

Giants remain confident with Cruz
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
1:51 PM

News: USA Today reports that Giants chairman Steve Tisch remains confident a deal with receiver Victor Cruz is coming soon. "We're talking. (Cruz's agent) Tom Condon is talking to (Giants general manager) Jerry (Reese) and I'm personally confident that Victor wants to be a Giant, will be a Giant," Tisch said. "He's a great guy. It's just taking its time." The report says Cruz and the Giants have made some progress but a deal isn't imminent, despite a report from the New York Post stating the sides were at the "2-yard line." At this point, it seems they're barely in the red zone, but things could change as the spring winds down. Cruz has yet to sign the tender he was extended as a restricted free agent that would pay him $2.879 million. The Giants could lower the rate to $630,000 if Cruz hasn't signed by June 17, but that might only strain the negotiations.

Analysis: We hope that Cruz is signed prior to training camp because we don't want to see a potential holdout. Continue to monitor what develops, and if Cruz signs on time then he would remain a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick as early as Round 4. If he ends up holding out then his value will decline.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings