Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
Stream
Go to CBSSports.com
      
Fantasy Football Today
2011 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Draft Analyzer
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Office Pool Manager
Playoff Challenge
Fantasy Baseball 360
2012 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 

Michael Hurcomb

Four Quarters: Fantasy lesson learned

By | Fantasy Writer


  •  

Playing for a Fantasy championship kind of takes me back to the days when I was a kid on Christmas Eve.

That same angst and anticipation having to wait one more day to see what jolly ol' St. Nick was going to leave under the Christmas Tree mirrors the same anguish Fantasy Football owners wrestle with on a weekly basis -- waiting to see if their lineup decisions end with reward or devastation.

The most turmoil facing Fantasy owners heading into Week 16 was what to do with Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch?

Lynch came into Saturday on quite a run. He had scored in 10 straight games and had less than 10 Fantasy points (standard formats) just once in that stretch. Yet, with many Fantasy leagues hosting its championship game Week 16, Lynch owners ponder whether or not to start the streaking back or bench him with San Francisco on the schedule?

San Francisco entered play Saturday yielding 8.0 Fantasy points per week to running backs, which was the lowest average in the NFL. Running backs were also averaging just 58.9 rushing yards per game and no running back had more than 64 rushing yards against the stout 49ers run defense. Most impressive, however, was that San Francisco hadn't allowed a rushing touchdown all season.

Let's not forget either that Lynch rushed for just 33 yards and no touchdowns in Week 1 against the 49ers.

Those factors definitely scared off some Lynch owners as his starting percentage dropped from 93 percent in Week 15 to 87 percent in Week 16. But Lynch taught us a valuable Fantasy lesson moving forward -- don't remove players on insane hot streaks from your lineups, no matter the matchup.

Lynch finished with 107 rushing yards on 21 carries, becoming the first running back to top 100 yards against the 49ers since Green Bay's Ryan Grant did it in Week 11 of the 2009 season. Also, Lynch became the first player this season to score on the ground against San Francisco when he broke to the outside and dodged a few tackles on his way to a 4-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

You want to talk about Draft Day value? Lynch was the 32nd most drafted running back in CBSSports.com leagues, behind the likes of Joseph Addai, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Grant, and wasn't drafted on average until the seventh round in 12-team standard formats.

Lynch is now a top 5 Fantasy scoring running back and has his first 1,000-yard season since 2008.

"If Marshawn Lynch isn't in the Pro Bowl, there is something wrong with the voting system," Seattle wide receiver Doug Baldwin said Saturday. "Plain and simple, he's proved it week in and week out."

First Quarter -- Surprises of the Week

Andy Dalton was just the second quarterback in the last nine games against Arizona to throw for multiple touchdowns ... Kevin Smith became the first running back to produce multiple touchdowns in a game against San Diego this season ... Evan Royster was pressed into his first start Week 16 against the Vikings after Roy Helu was inactive. Royster responded with his first 100-yard game against a defense yielding just 90.8 rushing yards per game to running backs ... Steven Jackson going over 100 yards might have been even more impressive seeing how Pittsburgh was yielding 86.3 rushing yards per game to running backs and no running back went over 100 yards against Pittsburgh since Arian Foster did it in Week 4 ... Continuing the trend of improbable 100-yard games, Peyton Hillis rushed for 112 yards against a Ravens defense allowing running backs to average 81.4 rushing yards per game ... Thanks in large part to a 99-yard touchdown, breakout Fantasy star Victor Cruz became just the second receiver this year to break 100 yards against the Jets, joining Wes Welker ... Brandon LaFell also used a 90-plus yard touchdown catch to propel him to a 100-yard game against the Bucs ... Jared Cook is picking the wrong time to have his breakout run as he has now gone over 100 yards in two straight games. Sadly, he hasn't been started in more than 7 percent of Fantasy leagues in either week ... Evan Moore seems to be one of the only tight ends able to score against the Ravens. After a touchdown Saturday, he now owns two of the three touchdowns scored by tight ends against Baltimore this season.

Second Quarter -- Duds of the Week

Philip Rivers earned back the trust of Fantasy owners during San Diego's three-game win streak to open December. Sadly, Rivers fell way short of expectations Week 16 against the Lions secondary that gave up nine passing touchdowns in its previous four games. Rivers threw one touchdown and two interceptions, while finishing with 13 Fantasy points ... Tim Tebow was in a similar situation going into a matchup with the Bills, who had just two interceptions to 16 passing touchdowns allowed in their previous seven games. Tebow had one touchdown to four interceptions ... Cedric Benson finally lost a fumble for the first time this year in Week 16 and his two lost fumbles Saturday dropped him to 1 Fantasy point for the week ... LeGarrette Blount was benched after fumbling on his first carry Saturday ... After shredding the vaunted Ravens defense for three touchdowns in Week 15, Chargers running backs Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert failed to score in Week 16 against the Lions and totaled 9 Fantasy points ... LeSean McCoy failed to deliver for Fantasy owners when it mattered the most by producing 4 Fantasy points in a win against Dallas. Although, he was hobbled by a left ankle injury for part of the game ... Beanie Wells and Chris Johnson, who were both started in at least 64 percent of leagues, didn't fare much better with just 5 Fantasy points each ... Laurent Robinson missed Tony Romo's presence the most Saturday. He had a season-low one catch and failed to score for just the second time in nine games ... Hakeem Nicks couldn't get off Revis Island in Week 16 and the 90 percent of Fantasy owners who started the third-year receiver were dealt just 2 Fantasy points ... The Panthers routed Tampa Bay, but star receiver Steve Smith hardly played a factor with one catch for 9 yards ... Jets receivers Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes combined for 8 Fantasy points against a Giants defense yielding 25.6 Fantasy points per week to receivers ... A.J. Green fell short against a Cardinals defense yielding 22.1 Fantasy points per week to receiver by producing 4 Fantasy points.

Third Quarter -- Injury Report

The injury heard around the world was the one Adrian Peterson suffered to his left knee, which was later reported as a torn ACL. Peterson's status for the start of the 2012 season could now be in doubt ... Tony Romo injured his throwing hand on the first drive of the game Week 16 against the Eagles and wouldn't return ... Christian Ponder's day ended Saturday when he suffered a concussion against Washington. Joe Webb rallied Minnesota to a win ... Reggie Bush topped 100 rushing yards for a fourth straight game Week 16, but he finished the loss to the Patriots on the sidelines because of a leg injury.

Fourth Quarter -- Early Look Ahead

All games in Week 17 will be played on New Year's Day ... The marquee matchup is the Sunday night showdown between the Cowboys and Giants, as a spot in the playoffs and the NFC East title is on the line. The last time these two teams met in Week 14 they combined for 71 points and 954 yards. Fantasy owners would love to see that production again ... Detroit at Green Bay might not be as exciting as it appears if the Packers sew up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and choose to rest some of their starters Week 17 ... Tennessee still has a shot at the playoffs, so guys like Chris Johnson, Nate Washington, Damian Williams and Jared Cook still have Fantasy value next week at Houston ... The Jets' playoff hopes are still alive as well and their Week 17 matchup should be intriguing knowing how much the Dolphins hate to lose to their AFC East foe ... Baltimore at Cincinnati could be a defensive slugfest as both teams have a lot on the line. But surprisingly when the last time these two teams met in Week 11 they combined for 55 points and 856 yards ... There will be some scoreboard watching going on next Sunday as the outcomes in Kansas City at Denver and San Diego at Oakland will decide the AFC West champion. Only Denver and Oakland remain alive in the hunt.

Overtime -- Q & A

I'm in a one-player keeper league. Who should I consider as my keeper? My team is Matthew Stafford, Wes Welker, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kellen Winslow, Reggie Wayne, Early Doucet, Matt Ryan, Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew and Johnny Knox. --Brendon Leaptrot

MH: The names that jump out are Stafford, Welker, Green, Jones, Rice, Jones-Drew and Bush. But this really comes down to Rice and MJD, who are both top 5 Fantasy draft picks heading into 2012.

If you look at the numbers, those two have been neck-and-neck in Fantasy points since Rice became a feature back in 2009. You can't really go wrong with either option.

One of my concerns is scheduling. Clearly, the Jaguars will have a more favorable schedule in 2012 as a non-playoff team. But that doesn't sway me as much as the experience factor.

MJD has been taking a beating as a featured back since 2006. He hasn't had less than 200 touches in any season since turning pro and is on pace to have 350-plus touches for a second-straight season in 2011. We all know the shelf life of a running back in the NFL is short and MJD will be entering his seventh season in 2012.

Rice is also on track to have 350-plus touches for a second-straight year in 2011, and that's not even counting the playoffs, which Rice will partake in for a fourth-straight season. But Rice is still only going to be 25 years old at the start of next season, and we still know he is going to be the focal part of the Ravens offense.

The Jaguars will be experiencing a changing of the guard, and while we doubt the new coach will completely phase out MJD, he might have a different philosophy when it comes to using the veteran back than did former Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio.

Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow us on Facebook. You can also follow Michael via Twitter @CBSHurc

  •  
 
 
 
Player News
Kellen Winslow
Winslow a 'rotational player?'
Kellen Winslow, TE, SEA
5/25/2012
News: Kellen Winslow became a Seahawk recently, and he's spoken highly of his new team. But it remains how they'll use him and how often they'll use him. According to SiriusXM NFL Radio, a league personnel executive believes that Winslow's best days are behind him. "We talked to the Bucs before the draft and talked about (Winslow) further internally," said the source. "We just didn't think he could be more than a rotational player at this point (in his career) after examining his tape and performance."
Analysis: Winslow had 75 receptions for 763 yards and two TDs in 2011 and has caught at least 66 passes in each of his last three years while not missing a game. There is definitely a perception that he's old and over the hill, which his receiving average (10.2 yards per catch last year) supports. And he joins a crowded tight end corps in Seattle, but should be a fairly regular player in the offense. Problem is, he hasn't been productive enough to be considered reliable for Fantasy use week after week. He's fine as a No. 2 Fantasy TE worth a late pick, but don't expect him to put up huge numbers.
Jamaal Charles
Charles to rest until camp
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
5/25/2012
News: The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs will rest running back Jamaal Charles until training camp in late July. He is not expected to participate in their minicamp as he continues to rehab and work his way back from a torn ACL suffered last September. Head coach Romeo Crennel hopes Charles will be cleared in time for camp.
Analysis: Charles has been vocal about being ready for the season, calling himself hungry and passionate to return to form. But the fact remains that he's coming off of a major injury and isn't promised to have any of the explosiveness he had before he got hurt. Tack on the Chiefs' addition of Peyton Hillis (Charles thinks Hillis will get the tough yards and goal-line work like Thomas Jones was supposed to previously), and there's a limit to Charles' 2012 expectations. So long as Charles proves that he's ready to roll, Fantasy owners should be optimistic. Assuming he's fine, Charles will be worth taking in the early rounds on Draft Day, but more as a No. 2 Fantasy RB. Plan on drafting Charles between 25th and 35th overall in all leagues.
Hakeem Nicks
Source: Nicks could return before camp
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
5/25/2012
News: ESPN reports that a source familiar with the broken bone in Hakeem Nicks' foot says the receiver might miss four-to-six weeks recovering from the injury and not the 12-week timeframe the Giants said on Thursday. Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal of his right foot during an OTA practice. The team is hoping to have him back at some point during training camp and the preseason.
Analysis: Unless the diagnosis on Nicks' foot changes, we're not believers that he'll be ready in six weeks and thus long before the start of training camp. Nicks' teammate, Prince Amukamara, took 15 weeks before he was comfortable practicing last year according to the Newark Star-Ledger and he had the same injury. Nicks has had all sorts of issues with hamstrings, knees and his feet over the years. So long as he is healthy for the start of the season and gets some work in camp and a preseason game or two, the injury is more of a reminder that he's injury prone and less of a factor on his 2012 season. We'll see if this lasts into late August and the regular season; for now expect his stock to slip in drafts. He'll be a Round 3-4 choice as a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger admits to issues with new playbook
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5/25/2012
News: Ben Roethlisberger's transition to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley's playbook is not going as smoothly as Steelers fans had hoped. Roethlisberger said Thursday that so far it's been "frustrating at times" but that he's going to put in "extra work" to understand what Haley wants him to do. "I think coach (Haley) really wants to challenge us," Big Ben said on a radio interview, per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Me, maybe, in particular, I think he felt like I was real comfortable with the old offense, which ... I don't know why that's a bad thing. But I'm not the head coach."
Analysis: There's all sorts of talk that Haley wants Roethlisberger to stay in the pocket to avoid excess hits and that Haley wants to run the ball more. We're not sure how this is going to play out, but we do think there's a chance Roethlisberger could attempt a ton of passes given that Rashard Mendenhall is out and Isaac Redman, while talented, might not be a 20-touch back from week to week. Much of the offense might fall on Roethlisberger's shoulders. We consider Big Ben a low-end No. 1 Fantasy QB in all leagues well worth a mid-round pick.
Sam Bradford
Bradford's ankle 'getting there'
Sam Bradford, QB, STL
5/25/2012
News: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford said his left ankle, injured in October at Green Bay, is nearly 100 percent. "It's getting there," he said. "It feels better every week -- less soreness, more things I can do. It's definitely on the right track."
Analysis: There's no questioning his arm as several Rams receivers, including their rookies, have been in awe over his passing skills. Bradford is continuing to learn the Rams' new offense and says it's close to the West Coast offense he ran two season ago. But with a so-so offensive line and an unproven receiving corps, now's not the time to call Bradford a breakout candidate. He should have some good games, but no one should consider him either a Fantasy starter or a blue chip prospect. For now we're resigned to calling him a late-round pick as a good, not great, No. 2 quarterback.
Matt Hasselbeck
Titans' Palmer breaks down QB battle
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN
5/25/2012
News: It's no secret that the Titans will have a competition for the starting quarterback job between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year gunslinger Jake Locker. What remains to be seen is when they'll name a starter. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer told the media Thursday that the job is up for grabs, that no preseason starts have been promised and that the coaching staff will pick a winner based on who can lead the team to wins, starting in Week 1 against the Patriots. Palmer said that while Locker's mobility is very appealing, Hasselbeck's experience and body of work from last season also gives him a chance to remain the starter. "Jake may not give all the other guys the opportunity to make plays like Matt does, but Jake can make plays with his legs," Palmer concluded. "When you add up how many plays Matt can make with the team and how many plays Jake can make with the team then you kind of have an idea who's going to give us the best chance to win."
Analysis: Hasselbeck started every game for the Titans in 2011 and threw for 3,571 yards with 18 scores and 14 interceptions. But when Locker did play, he did well, passing for four touchdowns with no interceptions and rushing for 56 yards on eight carries with a touchdowns run. Locker's completion percentage continued to be an eyesore (34 of 66 passing for 51.5 pct.), but the stats speak for themselves. Unless Locker can really prove that he's progressed as a passer, Hasselbeck is likely to take this job -- though there's no promise he'll start every game. Neither Titans QB should be drafted with anything more than a late-round pick. We'll keep you posted on the battle.
Brandon Lloyd
Lloyd already up to speed with Pats
Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
5/25/2012
News: New Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd has been impressive during the team's OTAs, but many people expected that. After all, Lloyd is on his third stop with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and knows the playbook and play calls like the back of his hand. Lloyd has been so impressive that the Boston Globe reports that Patriots quarterbacks have been looking for him all week because he's been exactly where he needs to be on every play. Lloyd was coy when it came to his role and his goals for this season but gave a pretty simple explanation on why he wanted to follow McDaniels to New England. "You find something good, you stick with it," he said. "I think that's the case for everybody, with everything in life."
Analysis: Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five scores last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator, and that came on the heels of a 77-catch, 1,448-yard, 11-touchdown season with McDaniels in Denver. He'll probably see a dip in opportunities because he'll share the field with so many other great weapons there. But he should still be about as productive as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver and should be drafted as such with a mid-round pick.
Ronnie Hillman
Tamme: Hillman looks good
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gave an encouraging scouting report on rookie rusher Ronnie Hillman. "He seems to have a lot of quickness," Tamme said. "I've got to see him carry a few and catch some passes, he seems like a guy who can really move and sort of be a threat from the scatback-type position."
Analysis: Yep, that sounds like Hillman, who averaged over 130 total yards per game in 2011 with 20 total touchdowns while breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records at San Diego State. Hillman isn't a big back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) but definitely plays bigger than he is. He's done good work between the tackles but is better known for his lateral agility and breakaway speed. Landing in Denver is nice since he won't be stuck behind a young back for long -- Willis McGahee will turn 31 in October and Knowshon Moreno is coming off of a torn ACL. We could see Hillman contribute this season, especially if he can perfect his pass blocking and receiving skills. Expect him to be taken late in all seasonal drafts as well as with a mid-to-late pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a second-round pick in rookie-only formats.
Jacob Tamme
Tamme talks offense, role
Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
5/25/2012
News: In an interview with Moving The Chains on SiriusXM NFL Radio, new Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme sounded very excited to follow quarterback Peyton Manning to Denver from Indy, adding that he "looks great." Tamme's also excited about the direction of the new offense, calling it a mix of what he did with Manning with the Colts and what offensive coordinator Mike McCoy wants to do. On the topic of his specific role with the Broncos, Tamme didn't want to give away much but did offer what he thinks is great about being a tight end. "I'm comfortable in slot and love that, but I would say I lined up on the line of scrimmage more than everywhere else [with the Colts]," Tamme said. " ... We should be able to move around and what we're going to do offensively, hopefully, we'll be able to move around some. I think that's what's great about playing tight end these days, you get to do everything. It's what makes the position a lot of fun."
Analysis: If we're reading between the lines, the Broncos could use Tamme as a tight end, slot receiver and H-back this season, all roles he's capable of playing as evidenced by his time in Indianapolis. Being comfortable with Manning is also built-in thanks to their relationship back in Indiana. Tamme had just 177 yards on 19 catches in 2011 with one score, but he worked behind starter Dallas Clark in a Manning-less Colts offense. In 10 games without Dallas Clark in 2010, Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns. Expect him to have some Clark-like potential and thus get swiped with a middle- to late-round pick in drafts this summer as a borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE.
Stephen Hill
Hill lines up as starter in OTAs
Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
5/25/2012
News: Jets rookie receiver Stephen Hill lined up opposite Santonio Holmes with the first-team offense during their recent OTAs. He caught a 75-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez, burning cornerback Kyle Wilson in the process, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.
Analysis: The Jets aren't going to have a dominant pass attack, so that could limit Hill's production. But he does have the chance for plenty of playing time, which is a plus. He's worth a late-round pick in seasonal formats, a middle- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and a Top 20 pick in rookie-only drafts.
 
 
 
Top Videos
FFB Today: Jamey and Dave's MVP
FFB Today: Top Waiver Wire Claims
FFB Today: 2012 Look Ahead
 
More Fantasy Football Videos
Rankings