Offseason Extra: Free agents on the move

Who's staying and who's going? Every year the NFL's free-agency period brings interest to the league without a single game being played.

Key players leave their old teams for new squads with dollars in their pockets and dreams of being part of a championship run. Sleepers are born out of player movement while busts also get carved out.

Keeping track of it all is important if you want to win your Fantasy league in 2012. We'll keep track of the movement here while dishing on the prospects of the available free agents along the way.

Some additional free-agent notes:

UFA: Unrestricted Free Agent -- A player who can sign anywhere.*
RFA: Restricted Free Agent -- A player who can sign anywhere but his original team can match the offer or receive compensation from new team. (Compensation will be added upon announcement of team designations.)
ERFA: Exclusive Rights Free Agent -- A player who can only negotiate with current team.
FRAN: Franchised Player -- A player who is guaranteed a one-year deal from his original team relative to highest-paid players at his position. The new team must give two first-round picks as compensation to original team if signed away.
*- released players also have this designation

Other free agent QBs
Jason Campbell	OAK
Rex Grossman	WAS
Kyle Orton	KC
Alex Smith	SF

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees, Saints
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Brees is expected to stick with the Saints after helping rejuvenate the franchise and leading them to a Super Bowl XLIV victory. He's been huge as the face of the franchise as well as a key figure for the city of New Orleans. At the very worst the Saints will use the franchise tag to keep him locked up.
Likelihood of leaving: 0 percent.
Possible 2012 landing spots: He's not leaving.
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: He's a lock as a No. 1 quarterback and likely first-round pick.

Matt Flynn, Packers
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Flynn has no chance of starting regularly in Green Bay, but with 731 yards and nine touchdowns in his only two starts, certainly he's got the kind of game that will give him the chance to start somewhere else in 2012. Flynn's been in the Packers' West Coast offense for four years and will definitely draw attention from teams that run that kind of scheme -- like one that his ex-offensive coordinator, Joe Philbin, coaches.
Likelihood of leaving: 99.9 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: Browns, Dolphins, Redskins, Seahawks
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: Might be taken with a late-round pick

Running backs

Other free agent RBs
Kahlil Bell - RFA	CHI
Cedric Benson	CIN
LeGarrette Blount - ERFA	TB
Ryan Grant	GB
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	NE
Tim Hightower	WAS
Peyton Hillis	CLE
Isaac Redman - ERFA	PIT
Jason Snelling	ATL
Mike Tolbert	SD

Michael Bush, Raiders
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Bush got an opportunity to show his strengths in nine starts without Darren McFadden totaling 740 rush yards, 308 receiving yards and five total touchdowns without a fumble in that span. Though he tailed off at the end of the year he proved that he can be considered a versatile, physical rushing threat and should be a key part of an offense in 2012. Early speculation was that the Raiders would use the franchise tag on him, but that doesn't seem to be the case.
Likelihood of leaving: 75 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: Browns, Chiefs, Colts, Jets, Packers
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: At worst he'll split reps with someone and be a top-of-the-line No. 3 rusher worth a mid-round pick. At best he'll be considered the top back for a team and get snared by the end of Round 4.

Matt Forte, Bears
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Forte has been a monster since setting foot in Chicago and should be recovered from a sprained MCL in time for offseason workouts. He has averaged 103.6 total yards per start in four seasons and is clearly a factor for the Bears. That's why it's essentially a given that he'll end up with the franchise tag if he and the team can't agree to a long-term deal. The Bears' team president has said as much.
Likelihood of leaving: 5 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: Chances are he'll be a Bear
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: Assuming no setbacks with his knee (or a potential contract holdout), Forte will be taken with a Top 10 pick in every draft.

Arian Foster, Texans
Free-agent status: Restricted
Foster has been a statistical machine for the Texans, averaging 142.3 total yards per game over his last 31 games with 33 total touchdowns. He's the perfect fit for the Houston offense and will definitely land a nice deal this offseason. Because he's restricted, though, the Texans are under no pressure to give him a long-term extension, though a team could conceivably pony up big bucks and a first-round pick for him. That would be a surprise given the landscape of running backs around the league.
Likelihood of leaving: 10 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: He's not going anywhere
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: He'll be a Top-5 pick -- if not the No. 1 overall pick -- in every single league.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Lynch started the season with some uninspiring performances but ended with 13 touchdowns and seven 100-total-yard efforts in his last 12 games to salvage his standing in Seattle as the workhorse running back. It remains to be seen who else will share backfield duties with him but his hard-charging skills should continue to pay off. At the very least he'll get franchised.
Likelihood of leaving: 10 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: It's likely he'll stay with the Seahawks
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: Many Fantasy owners will look his way with a pick between No. 7 and No. 15 overall, but there's a little risk to him. He's been unmotivated in the past, wearing out his welcome in Buffalo because of lackadaisical play. The same thing could happen after getting paid this offseason.

Ray Rice, Ravens
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
The Ravens' offense committed to Rice in 2011 and now the team will have to commit to him financially. Rice's explosive rushing combined with his receiving skills were on display in his breakout campaign; he finished the regular season with 2,068 total yards and 15 total touchdowns. Teams would line up for Rice if the Ravens let him go; the franchise tag is likely in his future.
Likelihood of leaving: 5 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: The Ravens will lock him up
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: If he signs a monster deal some Fantasy owners will get jittery about taking him with an early first-round pick for fear of a letdown, but Rice will end up being a popular pick within the first five choices in drafts.

Wide receivers

Other free agent WRs
Danny Amendola - RFA	STL
Deion Branch	NE
Plaxico Burress	NYJ
Pierre Garcon	IND
Brandon Lloyd	STL
Mario Manningham	NYG
Robert Meachem	NO
Jerome Simpson	CIN
Reggie Wayne	IND

Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Bowe had a shot at a tremendous cash-in campaign but went 10 straight games without a touchdown during the year and posted only three 100-yard games. He'll still likely land some good cash from the Chiefs as he's likely going to get hit with the franchise tag, restricting his movement. That could lead to a long-term deal, which could result in him taking his foot off the gas pedal like he did this season. Take away the 15 scores he racked up in 2010 and he's had a good, not great, career.
Likelihood of leaving: 15 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: 49ers, Bears, Browns, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Rams
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: Bowe is a lock to end up as a No. 1 receiver for an NFL team. Fantasy owners won't be in a hurry to draft him and many will consider him a bust candidate. Because of that, he'll start getting looks around Round 4 but could last until the end of Round 5/beginning of Round 6.

Marques Colston, Saints
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
This one is interesting: If the Saints drag their feet in signing Colston or Drew Brees, then there's a chance Colston will be set free. In fact, even if the Saints sign Brees there's concern that there's not enough cap space to keep Colston as well. Colston's been a pretty big part of Brees' development into one of the best quarterbacks in the game today -- he's caught nearly one-fourth of Brees' regular-season touchdowns (48 of 201) since the two arrived together in New Orleans in 2006.
Likelihood of leaving: 45 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: Bears, Browns, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Rams
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: Colston might have benefited more from Brees than the other way around, so if he rolls out of New Orleans and to a team with a weak quarterback (say, Jacksonville) he could be in for a statistical downswing. Ideally he'll stay with Brees and the Saints and be considered reliable.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Jackson spent his contract year venting about his contract status and playing through minor injuries. That left the Eagles with an inconsistent receiver that essentially defined the "boom-or-bust" label we've applied to Fantasy talent. He had at least 11 Fantasy points in six games with four points or less in seven. The Eagles are reportedly ready to give him the franchise tag, making 2012 a make-or-break year with the club. Assuming they don't tag him and trade him, which seems unlikely, he'll be back.
Likelihood of leaving: 25 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: 49ers, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Raiders, Rams
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: If Jackson lands a lucrative deal anywhere he could take a step back from his game and not try as hard as he should have in 2011. And he could get it as teams that value speed will pony up for him. Many Fantasy owners will be nervous to draft him.

Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Jackson got paid well for 2011, playing on his franchise tender, but the same thing isn't expected for 2012. Multiple reports have said Jackson will not get tagged but that the Chargers would be open to signing a long-term deal. Jackson might choose to move on, especially if another team comes along and drops a big pile of money in his lap. It's possible even though Jackson will be 29 entering the 2012 season and has dealt with a number of injuries and off-field incidents throughout his career.
Likelihood of leaving: 60 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: 49ers, Bears, Browns, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Rams
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: With another 1,100-yard, nine-touchdown season under his belt (his second in two years), Fantasy owners know what to expect out of Jackson. They'll also feel good about having him deliver it. Though he'll be an injury risk, expect him to be a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver taken in Round 3 or maybe Round 4 no matter where he winds up.

Steve Johnson, Bills
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Johnson and the Bills are reportedly far apart on a new deal, jeopardizing his future with the Bills. Johnson is looking to break the bank, but the Bills might not be in such a hurry. He just barely topped 1,000 yards in 2011 with seven touchdowns, good enough to say that his breakout 2010 wasn't a fluke but also that he's not an elite talent at the position.
Likelihood of leaving: 40 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: Buccaneers, Jaguars, Rams
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: A huge contract will make owners wary of a letdown, especially if he ends up with a team with a below-average quarterback. In that case he'd probably be a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver. If he stays in Buffalo then he'll be a safer choice as a No. 2 receiver.

Mike Wallace, Steelers
Free-agent status: Restricted
Wallace has been a gem over his first three seasons. Even though his stats sank a little in his third year, he was still quite productive for Fantasy owners until the end of the season when he finished with four straight games without a touchdown. There's no way the Steelers will let Wallace go without a fight, but they might not have a choice. Unless they franchise him, which could be tough on their salary cap, a team with a late first-round pick could swipe him and give up a ton of money and a draft choice for him. What it could mean is that Wallace will not be in a contract year in 2012 after all.
Likelihood of leaving: 55 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: 49ers, Patriots, Ravens and Texans all have late first-round picks and could use help at receiver.
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: He's a good low-end No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver no matter where he winds up.

Wes Welker, Patriots
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Tom Brady has thrown for 18,339 yards and 153 touchdowns in his last four full seasons (throw out his injury-shortened 2008). Welker has been responsible for 4,940 of those yards (26.9 pct.) and 28 of those touchdowns (18.3 pct.). Some might think he's replaceable but chances are Brady is not one of those people. Expect the Patriots to do everything they can to keep Welker from walking out the door (Deion Branch is a different story).
Likelihood of leaving: 5 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: Patriots. Would we even want Welker to move on and potentially take on a new role?
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: He's a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver worth a pick between 20th and 30th overall.

Tight ends

Other free agent TEs
Jake Ballard - ERFA	NYG
Scott Chandler	BUF
Joel Dreessen	HOU
Jeremy Shockey	CAR

Fred Davis, Redskins
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Davis finally realized some of his potential with 796 yards and three scores in 12 games. He also realized that he has to keep his nose clean off the field or else he'll get suspended again. But with Chris Cooley banged up and potentially a roster casualty this offseason, Davis is in position to cement his status as the top tight end on the team. It is believed that the Redskins will franchise him.
Likelihood of leaving: 5 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: He's likely staying in D.C.
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: Davis should be a low-risk high-reward Fantasy option with a middle- to late-round pick.

Jermichael Finley, Packers
Free-agent status: Unrestricted
Finley stayed healthy for 16 games, a huge plus for the Packers. But his stats didn't reflect a smashing season, not for the expectations heading into the year. Eight touchdowns with 767 yards on 55 catches was very nice and ranked highly among tight ends, but it underscored the fact that Finley is not in the same class as the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates. He even needed a score in each of his last two games to get to eight. The Packers will probably do what they can to keep him but complications in negotiating could change his future.
Likelihood of leaving: 20 percent
Possible 2012 landing spots: Bears, Chiefs, Rams
Potential 2012 Fantasy value: Finley might be a guy owners reach for, taking him a round or two too early. There's no doubt that he should be taken as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end but at the right price -- probably starting in Round 6.

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